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Charting the Markets… by ESVXM on JUNE 15
Markets: German DAX, SPX, NDX, Dow Jones Industrials and long term US bonds
15 June 2015 by ESVXM on JUNE 15, 2015
link
Is this the-last-chance for-an-S&P-breakout? By Avi Gilburt
Is this the last chance for an S&P breakout?
By Avi Gilburt
Published: June 15, 2015 11:59 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-this-the-last-chance-for-an-sp-breakout-2015-06-15?link=MW_TD
Due to the significant overlapping structure seen in the markets for the last five months, the main question on everyone's mind is if this was bullish consolidation or bearish distribution.
Back in late 2014 and early 2015, my initial expectation was that the S&P500 was setting up to target the 2300-2500 region by the fall of 2015. Due to the market action we have seen over the last five months, I don't believe the 2500 region will be targeted at this time, as noted back in early March (at least not until 2017).
Published: Jan 6, 2015 12:25 p.m. ET
By Avi Gilburt
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-stocks-really-in-a-bubble-of-trouble-2015-01-06?link=MW_TD
Many have asked me how I can possibly come up with a target as high as 2500 in the S&P 500 so far out in time. Well, for those who study our Fibonacci Pinball method, you will know it is simply a matter of probability and math.
dindindon Friday, 12/19/14 02:17:06 PM
12/19 capitulatory advance
at this writing, the bounce-off from the low 1972.24 looks more like a capitulatory advance.
Texas Fires Warning Shot! They're-Taking-Their-Gold-Back
Texas Fires Warning Shot! They're Taking Their Gold Back
June 14, 2015
http://allnewspipeline.com/Texas_Taking_Gold_Back_From_FED.php
Putting it simply, Texas has told the federal government that they don't trust them holding onto their gold.
important pivots: 2075.96-2066.04, will it hold up?
session low: 2072.49, Ongoing
06/09/15 10:46:52 AM
(2075.96)-------(2066.04)
2076 & 2066 are important pivots
BOND BOMBSHELL... (Gold STOCK Bond ..)
BOND BOMBSHELL...
originally published June 14th, 2015
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3480
Of course, the mainstream financial media are trying to portray the recent trend of rising interest rates as a sign that the economy is recovering, ... If this is so then why is the Baltic Dry Index.... at rock bottom depression levels? ...
David-Kostin, Robert-Shiller, & Warren-Buffett: Stocks Are Overvalued
Shiller and Goldman Say U.S. Stocks Are Overvalued
Wed, Jun 3 2015, 16:27 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-and-silver-trading-alert/2015/06/03/
Goldman Sachs’ chief equity strategist, David Kostin, said that “by almost any measure, US equity valuations look expensive”, which echoed Robert Shiller’s earlier opinion.
Warren Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP Ratio Overvalued
By John Whitefoot • Thursday, June 11, 2015
http://www.profitconfidential.com/economy/warren-buffett-indicator-market-cap-to-gdp-ratio-overvalued/
06/12/15 SPX & Gold
(1) SPX
session low 2091.33, Ongoing.
To be short term bullish, the test window is 06/12-06/16, test resistance point is 2126.33. Otherwise, a cycle low is expected in middle of July
Events:
FOMC June 16/17
Greece status
06/07/15 09:05:47 PM
No matter how E-wavers label their wave counts, the projection target is engaging a set of Fibonacci series that comply with trend lines, chart patterns, and prior High/Low.
06/10/15 Gold moves up again
06/07/15 09:05:47 PM
VST bounce for tactic scalp is possible
comments: A VST scalp may roll into a short term buying opportunity
Reference post: Gold link
RE: getmenews (06/09/15 12:02:40 PM)
getmenews
my thought in essence:
(1) Long term target – pending (reason: see synopsis (1) )
(2) Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see middle term target 2213.50
(3) SPX Short term high targets: 2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(6) imho: Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
synopsis:
(1) imho, fundamental information will give clues. For example, Fed use Economic Conditions to adjust federal funds rate.
(2) There are two different level “fourth wave”. For simplicity, use the following wave nomenclature (it is a popular one among E-wavers, only Time will tell) and assume wave III top is 2134.72 (note: requires confirmation), the wave IV retracement is a Fibonacci ratio hunting game.
A minimum retracement ratio 0.236/0.382
2134.72-1074.77--> 1885/1730
2134.72-0666.79--> 1788/1574
06/09/15 SPX, GOLD/GDX VST Bounce Call
(1) SPX
session low 2072.14, Ongoing
(2075.96)----2072.14----(2066.04)
2076 & 2066 are important pivots, refer to this post for details
Table gives subtle views (2072.50 0.4045)
(2) Gold
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5)
Gold 1,175.70 +2.10 Ongoing
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
06/09 1182.30 High, Ongoing
06/05 1162.10 Low
(3) GDX
session high 19.23, ONgoing
archives
(1) Sunday, 06/07/15 09:05:47 PM
Gold Future price marked a low 1162.10 on 06/05/15, as long as Gold Bugs can defend the critical support 1161.75 (0.786, standard deep retrace ratio), VST bounce for tactic scalp is possible.
(EDIT: transpired)
No matter how E-wavers label their wave counts, the projection target is engaging a set of Fibonacci series that comply with trend lines, chart patterns, and prior High/Low.
(2) Thursday, 06/04/15 11:29:31 AM
GOLD
supports: 0.786-1161.75
GDX
0.618 18.80
0.764 18.22
06/07/15 Gold
dindindon Thursday, 06/04/15 11:29:31 AM
GOLD short term bearish
retracement: 1232.80 (05/18) - 1142.40 (03/17)
supports: 0.786-1161.75
(EDIT: after typo fix-up)
Gold update 2015
tony caldaro Posted on June 7, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/gold-update-2015/
Gold is not finished with its Primary wave A decline. Therefore we would expect Gold to make lower low, or retest the low, before its Primary wave A ends. The low so far is $1,130. (EDIT: 1130.40 on 11/07/2014)
charts link: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/10
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
By: Lara Iriarte | Fri, Jun 5, 2015
http://www.safehaven.com/article/37881/gold-elliott-wave-technical-analysis
Summary: It is more likely this downwards wave is incomplete. Confirmation would come with a new low below 1,162.80, with the target at 1,157. Alternatively, it is possible this downwards wave is over now
Use the link directly
In case of hot link access denied
Title: China Shanghai index 25 years history
Use the link: http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3706699.html
FXI/FXP YING/YANG - The bubble question
Since 1990, China stock market experieinced 4 complete Bull-Bear cycles, currently, in the fifth Bull cycle. combines Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong exchange together, the size is bigger than Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange.
China’s Stock Market on Track to Reach $10 Trillion in Value
by Kyoungwha Kim 06/05/15
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-05/china-s-stock-market-capitalization-set-to-reach-10-trillion
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan’s stock market is valued at $5 trillion, while the U.S. is at almost $25 trillion.
The bubble question
Apr 14th 2015, 13:59 BY S.R. | SHANGHAI
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/04/china-booming-stockmarket
China may not be in the grip of a big stockmarket bubble just yet, but it takes little imagination to see it getting there if the rally goes on much longer.
06/06/15 weekly report
SPX diagonal pattern is not complete.
currently jogs in zone 1 (click)
Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation
we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
Short term high targets:
2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
Short term low targets:
based on retracement
2083.69, 2082.22, 2075.96
2066.04, 2039.66, 2017.20
based on local wave
2082.69, 2077.10, 2068.72
Why Tesla's Powerwall Is Just Another Toy For Rich-Green-People
Why Tesla's Powerwall Is Just Another Toy For Rich Green People
Christopher Helman Forbes Staff
Big Oil, Big Energy
link
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000
FYI FWIW
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-great-bull-market-gold-25000-2015-06-04
By Avi Gilburt
Published: June 4, 2015 11:43 a.m. ET
06/04/15 SPX
bears take out support 2098.42-2098.28
First Low target zone transpired.
archives:
(1) 05/30/15 04:45:35 PM
more details (click)(4) SPX Short term low targets:
based on retracement – 2098.42, 2075.96
based on local wave – 2098.28, 2090.68, 2077.10
06/04/15 GDX & GOLD
(1) GOLD short term bearish
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5)
session low 1,172.50, ongoing
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
retracement: 1232.80 (05/18) - 1146.50 (03/11)
resistance:
0.618-1179.47
supports:
0.707-1171.79
0.764 -1166.87
0.786-1164.97
(2) GDX short term bearish
GDX session low 19.04, ongoing
0.500 19.27 (21.25-17.29)
0.618 18.80
0.764 18.22
05/22 imho: minimum number to be bullish: 20.16
05/21 supports 19.73-19.55
05/30/15 weekly report
review:
05/23/15 04:47:04 PM
To be short term bullish, depends on whether it will break 2130.46 decisively (2137.74)
SPX Short term low targets
2119, 2109, 2105
2098, 2076
EDIT: see table in chart 1
- SPX surmounted the long-posted target 2130.46
but reversed from the middle way of 2130.46 &
2137.74 (mean 2134.10, actual 2134.72).
The pullback hit one of the projection 2098
(actual 2099.18).
- SPX diagonal pattern is not complete.
But, it could break down in the next few
weeks or extend higher on any positive news.
- Chart 3 gives the intrady view. Index moved
between Fib Points. Breaking below 2104.97
has the better odd to test 2098.28 or even
lower numbers.
Summary:
(1) Long term target - pending
(2) Middle term target 2213.50
Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see 2213.50
(3) SPX Short term high targets: 2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(4) SPX Short term low targets:
based on retracement – 2098.42, 2075.96
based on local wave – 2098.28, 2090.68, 2077.10
(5) The significance of 2076 (2075.96):
see this report (click)
(6) imho: Pullback below 1976 +/- is the
confirmation we may not see 2213.50
for a quite long time.
re: Bear-market only implies QE4 to be initiated
QE4 says Dollar Decimation
http://40yearcycle.com/pages/dollar-decimation/
dollar in gyration mode again ....
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
May 26, 2015 97.46 session high
May 18, 2015 93.28 session low
report eariler, .. UUP at critical juncture
spx closed below interim support 2104.90
closed at 2104.25 (<2104.90)
session low 2099.18 (>2098.42)
don't looks good till stick-save comes in
prior posts:
interim support range 2107.70-2104.90
2098.42 early warning
UGLD/DGLD
gold bounce off critical support, seesion low 1185.80.
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5) Real-time CFD 19:57:13 GMT
Day's Range: 1,185.80 - 1,207.90
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
05/22/15 11:03:49 AM
1184.61 critical support
chart don't tell everything ...
It is the same kind psychological feeling when market is running in the extreme
at 667, bear still wants much lower,
at 21xx, bull still wants much higher
No one knows for sure what will happen to the market next month next year,
But, it is very clear, this Fed induced stock bull market will fizzle out badly.
Sunday, 04/05/15 11:03:35 PM
The Fox Borrows the Tiger's Ferocity
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=112430334
RELAX!
Friday, 01/30/15 11:12:30 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110429276
'A few' E-woofers say SPX is in wave 3, after down wave 4, we will see blah blah blah ATH wave 5. This melody has been out there for quite a while, very ‘loud’. Let me 'jinx' it, How about a wave 5 Truncation?
Avi-Gilburt is still bullish, but gives leeway
It may be a rocky ride to new highs in the S&P
By Avi Gilburt
Published: May 26, 2015 11:26 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-may-be-a-rocky-ride-to-new-highs-in-the-sp-2015-05-26
Alternatively, should the SPX take out the support at 2123, then that will open the door for the (b) wave drop, which is confirmed below the 2116 SPX level. The ideal support region for this (b) wave resides between 2093 and 2101SPX. For those who believe we have a major top in place, it would take a break down below 2076/80 SPX for me to maintain the perspective that a major top has been struck.
IMMINENT BEARMARKET IN US-STOCKS SIGNALED BY DOW-THEORY
FYI,
link creditor gtsourdinis (Sunday, 05/24/15 06:46:20 PM)
IMMINENT BEARMARKET IN US STOCKS SIGNALED BY DOW THEORY...
originally published May 23rd, 2015
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3467
SPX break an-interim-support range,
session low 2103.57, ongoing
interim support range 2107.70-2104.90
local
0.382 2109.21
0.500 2101.33
2134.73-1980.90
0.236 2098.42 early warning
05/25/15 typo, 05/26/15
05/25/15 Misc
Gold
session low 1186.00 (vs. 1184.61), ongoing
GDX
No bullish signal.
SPX
session low 2108.27 (vs. 2109), ongoing
(2134.72-2067.93, 0.382 2109.21 0.4465 2104.90 .....)
Shanghai index
4910.90 (New high again)
FTSE China 50 ( YANG -3X, YING +3X, FXP -2X, FXI)
227.80 +6.20% (Up big, but did not mark new high)
archive:
05/22/15 11:03:49 AM
(1) Gold
1184.61 critical support
(2) GDX
20.16 – imho: minimum number to be bullish
(3) SPX 05/23/15 04:47:04 PM
SPX Short term low targets
2119, 2109, 2105
2098, 2076
one cyclist projected the bull window from 05/18-05/22, gives +.., getting closer... Time will tell.
(4) Shanghai index
New high again, waiting for signals to enter FXP. ... ... market heat wouldn’t fade quickly
05/23/15 weekly report
(1) Market Trend Charts – overall ( link) says we are in a stock bull market
Synopsis:
- To be short term bullish, depends on whether it will break 2130.46 decisively (2137.74)
- A nice chart by gtoptions: link
- The delving efforts by tony caldaro, TraderJoe on ending/leading diagonal pattern is amazing link
(2) Fibonacci Zones
Zone 1 2070-2130
Zone 2 2130-2214
Zone 3 2214-2317
chart
(3) SPX Short term high targets
2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(4) SPX Short term low targets
2119, 2109, 2105
2098, 2076
(5) Middle term target 2213.50
Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see 2213.50
chart
[2130.46-2213.50]
2157.33 0.3236 (=1.618/5)
2167.53 0.4465 (=1.786/4)
(6) Long term target - pending
A few meaningful Fib. points
YELLEN: Rate hikes are coming this year
MYLES UDLAND 29 MINUTES AGO
http://www.businessinsider.com/janet-yellen-us-economic-outlook-speech-may-22-2015-5
Misc.
(1) Gold
data: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold jogs in between the Resistance and support
retracement (1232.00-1146.50) (05/20/15)
1199.34 support
1184.61 critical support
1211.82 resistance
Date---High-Low
05/22 1214.40, 1201.20 ongoing
05/21 1212.40, 1200.80
05/20 1213.20, 1202.70
(2) GDX
session High/low 20.06/19.82, ongoing
supports 19.73-19.55 (05/21/15)
retracement (21.25-19.82)
resistances:
20.16 – imho: minimum number to be bullish
20.08
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/22110702118611006830.jpg
(3) SPX
one cyclist projected the bull window from 05/18-05/22, gives +.., getting closer... Time will tell.
(4) Shanghai index
New high again, waiting for signals to enter FXP.
China are holding a few “good incentives” cards on hand (such as allow retirement funds entering the market conditionally), market heat wouldn’t fade quickly (Unless the “crisis” in the South China Sea goes out of control.
link - US warns 'next step' could be to test Beijing's territorial claims in South China Sea )
Avi- Gilburt: Why Peter-Schiff is still wrong about gold
Why Peter Schiff is still wrong about gold
By Avi Gilburt
Published: May 21, 2015 11:29 a.m. ET
link
All This Battery-Hype Should Make Tesla Investors Nervous
All This Battery Hype Should Make Tesla Investors Nervous
Christopher Helman Forbes Staff 5/12/2015
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/05/12/all-this-battery-hype-should-make-tesla-investors-nervous/
Elon Musk is a genius marketer. The hype and buzz that he and Tesla have created around their new Powerwall battery system is remarkable.
GDX GOLD 05/21/15
(1) GOLD
05/21/15 1201.20 session low, ongoing
Day's Range: 1,201.20 - 1,212.30
source: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
retracement (1232.00-1146.50) (05/20/15)
0.382 1199.34 support
0.236 1211.82 resistance
(2) GDX
session low 19.91 (EST 9h:57mins), ongoing
supports 19.73-19.55
FXI/FXP 05/20/2015
- i switch my focus from YANG/YING to FXI/FXP
- FXI is liquid, avg. (3 mo) volume 19,684,500
- not for quick trades
FXI
tracks FTSE China 50 Index, 1x
it has 50% retracement, in a risky zone.
FXP tracks FTSE China 50 Index, inverse 2X
fact sheet & prospectus
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239536/ishares-china-largecap-etf
getmenews: 2.675 vs. 2.666667
2138.00 2.675
2137.74 2.6666667
2.675 vs. 2.666667 = 1/(0.25 * 1.5)
-0.311% deviation
2137.74 vs. 2138.00
-0.012% deviation
comments:
- drifts around 2137.74 to 2138.86
- Fibonacci series 7 * 0.382 = 2.674
- works "occasionally"
DUST YANG SPX - intraday
sold YANG (5.42 -> 5.645 * 10) (YANG reverse split 10(old)-> 1(new))
sold DUST (11.95 -> 13.00)
YANG does not correlate with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen Index.
it tracks FTSE China 50 (3X reverse).
real time data http://gu.qq.com/hk02838?pgv_ref=fi_smartbox&_ver=2.0
ticker 02838:HK
Gold (Future) http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Date---session high low
05/20 1212.30 1202.90 ongoing
05/18 1232.00 1221.20
retracement (1232.00-1146.50)
0.382 1199.34 support
0.236 1211.82 resistance
i will try to find out real time data for "NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index" so i can track DUST/NUGT closely.
SPX
2122.70 support 1
2112.37 support 2
2137.74 resistance
DJI session high & ATH 18,351.36
dindindon Monday, 12/29/14 11:54:37 AM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109438192
- DJI chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
- 18062 18657
- 17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
FRIDAY, MAY 1, 2015
Treatise on the Bear Market Rally and Elliott Wave Count Update
http://fifthwavefinancialanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/treatise-on-bear-market-rally-and.html
Using arithmetic scale, the ratio of the 2007-2009 decline to the 2000-2002 decline, is approximately 169.7%. Applying this ratio to the advance from 2002-2007 (7000.61 points) yields 11,883.21 points. From the 2009 low, should this ratio analysis be correct, the market would top at 18,353.16.
cwallace90 says:
May 19, 2015 at 3:34 pm
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/05/19/tuesday-update-490/#comments
Hello Everyone,
At the beginning of the month I did a blog post, and presented some calculations and a resulting target. Today the market just about hit it.
http://fifthwavefinancialanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/05/treatise-on-bear-market-rally-and.html
My target: 18,353,16
Today’s high: 18,351.36
If the calculations are going to work out, the market should stage a big reversal tomorrow.
Cheers,
Chris