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Charting the Markets… by ESVXM on JUNE 15
Is this the-last-chance for-an-S&P-breakout? By Avi Gilburt
Texas Fires Warning Shot! They're-Taking-Their-Gold-Back
important pivots: 2075.96-2066.04, will it hold up?
session low: 2072.49, Ongoing
BOND BOMBSHELL... (Gold STOCK Bond ..)
David-Kostin, Robert-Shiller, & Warren-Buffett: Stocks Are Overvalued
06/12/15 SPX & Gold
(1) SPX
session low 2091.33, Ongoing.
To be short term bullish, the test window is 06/12-06/16, test resistance point is 2126.33. Otherwise, a cycle low is expected in middle of July
Events:
FOMC June 16/17
Greece status
06/10/15 Gold moves up again
06/07/15 09:05:47 PM
VST bounce for tactic scalp is possible
comments: A VST scalp may roll into a short term buying opportunity
Reference post: Gold link
RE: getmenews (06/09/15 12:02:40 PM)
getmenews
my thought in essence:
(1) Long term target – pending (reason: see synopsis (1) )
(2) Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see middle term target 2213.50
(3) SPX Short term high targets: 2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(6) imho: Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
synopsis:
(1) imho, fundamental information will give clues. For example, Fed use Economic Conditions to adjust federal funds rate.
(2) There are two different level “fourth wave”. For simplicity, use the following wave nomenclature (it is a popular one among E-wavers, only Time will tell) and assume wave III top is 2134.72 (note: requires confirmation), the wave IV retracement is a Fibonacci ratio hunting game.
A minimum retracement ratio 0.236/0.382
2134.72-1074.77--> 1885/1730
2134.72-0666.79--> 1788/1574
06/09/15 SPX, GOLD/GDX VST Bounce Call
(1) SPX
session low 2072.14, Ongoing
(2075.96)----2072.14----(2066.04)
2076 & 2066 are important pivots, refer to this post for details
Table gives subtle views (2072.50 0.4045)
(2) Gold
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5)
Gold 1,175.70 +2.10 Ongoing
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
06/09 1182.30 High, Ongoing
06/05 1162.10 Low
(3) GDX
session high 19.23, ONgoing
archives
06/07/15 Gold
Use the link directly
In case of hot link access denied
Title: China Shanghai index 25 years history
Use the link: http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3706699.html
FXI/FXP YING/YANG - The bubble question
Since 1990, China stock market experieinced 4 complete Bull-Bear cycles, currently, in the fifth Bull cycle. combines Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong exchange together, the size is bigger than Japan Tokyo Stock Exchange.
06/06/15 weekly report
SPX diagonal pattern is not complete.
currently jogs in zone 1 (click)
Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation
we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
Short term high targets:
2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
Short term low targets:
based on retracement
2083.69, 2082.22, 2075.96
2066.04, 2039.66, 2017.20
based on local wave
2082.69, 2077.10, 2068.72
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000
FYI FWIW
06/04/15 SPX
bears take out support 2098.42-2098.28
First Low target zone transpired.
archives:
(1) 05/30/15 04:45:35 PM
more details (click)(4) SPX Short term low targets:
based on retracement – 2098.42, 2075.96
based on local wave – 2098.28, 2090.68, 2077.10
06/04/15 GDX & GOLD
(1) GOLD short term bearish
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5)
session low 1,172.50, ongoing
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
retracement: 1232.80 (05/18) - 1146.50 (03/11)
resistance:
0.618-1179.47
supports:
0.707-1171.79
0.764 -1166.87
0.786-1164.97
(2) GDX short term bearish
GDX session low 19.04, ongoing
0.500 19.27 (21.25-17.29)
0.618 18.80
0.764 18.22
05/22 imho: minimum number to be bullish: 20.16
05/21 supports 19.73-19.55
05/30/15 weekly report
review:
- SPX surmounted the long-posted target 2130.46
but reversed from the middle way of 2130.46 &
2137.74 (mean 2134.10, actual 2134.72).
The pullback hit one of the projection 2098
(actual 2099.18).
- SPX diagonal pattern is not complete.
But, it could break down in the next few
weeks or extend higher on any positive news.
- Chart 3 gives the intrady view. Index moved
between Fib Points. Breaking below 2104.97
has the better odd to test 2098.28 or even
lower numbers.
Summary:
(1) Long term target - pending
(2) Middle term target 2213.50
Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see 2213.50
(3) SPX Short term high targets: 2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(4) SPX Short term low targets:
based on retracement – 2098.42, 2075.96
based on local wave – 2098.28, 2090.68, 2077.10
(5) The significance of 2076 (2075.96):
see this report (click)
(6) imho: Pullback below 1976 +/- is the
confirmation we may not see 2213.50
for a quite long time.
re: Bear-market only implies QE4 to be initiated
QE4 says Dollar Decimation
http://40yearcycle.com/pages/dollar-decimation/
dollar in gyration mode again ....
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
May 26, 2015 97.46 session high
May 18, 2015 93.28 session low
report eariler, .. UUP at critical juncture
spx closed below interim support 2104.90
closed at 2104.25 (<2104.90)
session low 2099.18 (>2098.42)
don't looks good till stick-save comes in
prior posts:
interim support range 2107.70-2104.90
2098.42 early warning
UGLD/DGLD
gold bounce off critical support, seesion low 1185.80.
Gold Futures - Aug 15 (GCQ5) Real-time CFD 19:57:13 GMT
Day's Range: 1,185.80 - 1,207.90
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
05/22/15 11:03:49 AM
1184.61 critical support
chart don't tell everything ...
It is the same kind psychological feeling when market is running in the extreme
at 667, bear still wants much lower,
at 21xx, bull still wants much higher
No one knows for sure what will happen to the market next month next year,
But, it is very clear, this Fed induced stock bull market will fizzle out badly.
Avi-Gilburt is still bullish, but gives leeway
IMMINENT BEARMARKET IN US-STOCKS SIGNALED BY DOW-THEORY
FYI,
link creditor gtsourdinis (Sunday, 05/24/15 06:46:20 PM)
IMMINENT BEARMARKET IN US STOCKS SIGNALED BY DOW THEORY...
originally published May 23rd, 2015
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3467
SPX break an-interim-support range,
session low 2103.57, ongoing
interim support range 2107.70-2104.90
local
0.382 2109.21
0.500 2101.33
2134.73-1980.90
0.236 2098.42 early warning
05/25/15 typo, 05/26/15
05/25/15 Misc
Gold
session low 1186.00 (vs. 1184.61), ongoing
GDX
No bullish signal.
SPX
session low 2108.27 (vs. 2109), ongoing
(2134.72-2067.93, 0.382 2109.21 0.4465 2104.90 .....)
Shanghai index
4910.90 (New high again)
FTSE China 50 ( YANG -3X, YING +3X, FXP -2X, FXI)
227.80 +6.20% (Up big, but did not mark new high)
archive:
05/23/15 weekly report
(1) Market Trend Charts – overall ( link) says we are in a stock bull market
Synopsis:
- To be short term bullish, depends on whether it will break 2130.46 decisively (2137.74)
- A nice chart by gtoptions: link
- The delving efforts by tony caldaro, TraderJoe on ending/leading diagonal pattern is amazing link
(2) Fibonacci Zones
Zone 1 2070-2130
Zone 2 2130-2214
Zone 3 2214-2317
chart
(3) SPX Short term high targets
2137.74, 2141.14, 2148.70
(4) SPX Short term low targets
2119, 2109, 2105
2098, 2076
(5) Middle term target 2213.50
Gauge 2157.33-2167.53 to see 2213.50
chart
[2130.46-2213.50]
2157.33 0.3236 (=1.618/5)
2167.53 0.4465 (=1.786/4)
(6) Long term target - pending
A few meaningful Fib. points
YELLEN: Rate hikes are coming this year
MYLES UDLAND 29 MINUTES AGO
http://www.businessinsider.com/janet-yellen-us-economic-outlook-speech-may-22-2015-5
Misc.
(1) Gold
data: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Gold jogs in between the Resistance and support
retracement (1232.00-1146.50) (05/20/15)
1199.34 support
1184.61 critical support
1211.82 resistance
Date---High-Low
05/22 1214.40, 1201.20 ongoing
05/21 1212.40, 1200.80
05/20 1213.20, 1202.70
(2) GDX
session High/low 20.06/19.82, ongoing
supports 19.73-19.55 (05/21/15)
retracement (21.25-19.82)
resistances:
20.16 – imho: minimum number to be bullish
20.08
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/22110702118611006830.jpg
(3) SPX
one cyclist projected the bull window from 05/18-05/22, gives +.., getting closer... Time will tell.
(4) Shanghai index
New high again, waiting for signals to enter FXP.
China are holding a few “good incentives” cards on hand (such as allow retirement funds entering the market conditionally), market heat wouldn’t fade quickly (Unless the “crisis” in the South China Sea goes out of control.
link - US warns 'next step' could be to test Beijing's territorial claims in South China Sea )
Avi- Gilburt: Why Peter-Schiff is still wrong about gold
All This Battery-Hype Should Make Tesla Investors Nervous
GDX GOLD 05/21/15
(1) GOLD
05/21/15 1201.20 session low, ongoing
Day's Range: 1,201.20 - 1,212.30
source: http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
retracement (1232.00-1146.50) (05/20/15)
0.382 1199.34 support
0.236 1211.82 resistance
(2) GDX
session low 19.91 (EST 9h:57mins), ongoing
supports 19.73-19.55
FXI/FXP 05/20/2015
- i switch my focus from YANG/YING to FXI/FXP
- FXI is liquid, avg. (3 mo) volume 19,684,500
- not for quick trades
FXI
tracks FTSE China 50 Index, 1x
it has 50% retracement, in a risky zone.
FXP tracks FTSE China 50 Index, inverse 2X
fact sheet & prospectus
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239536/ishares-china-largecap-etf
getmenews: 2.675 vs. 2.666667
2138.00 2.675
2137.74 2.6666667
2.675 vs. 2.666667 = 1/(0.25 * 1.5)
-0.311% deviation
2137.74 vs. 2138.00
-0.012% deviation
comments:
- drifts around 2137.74 to 2138.86
- Fibonacci series 7 * 0.382 = 2.674
- works "occasionally"
DUST YANG SPX - intraday
sold YANG (5.42 -> 5.645 * 10) (YANG reverse split 10(old)-> 1(new))
sold DUST (11.95 -> 13.00)
YANG does not correlate with Shanghai, Hong Kong, Shenzhen Index.
it tracks FTSE China 50 (3X reverse).
real time data http://gu.qq.com/hk02838?pgv_ref=fi_smartbox&_ver=2.0
ticker 02838:HK
Gold (Future) http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Date---session high low
05/20 1212.30 1202.90 ongoing
05/18 1232.00 1221.20
retracement (1232.00-1146.50)
0.382 1199.34 support
0.236 1211.82 resistance
i will try to find out real time data for "NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index" so i can track DUST/NUGT closely.
SPX
2122.70 support 1
2112.37 support 2
2137.74 resistance
DJI session high & ATH 18,351.36