I view the FOMC event as short-term bearish, but I am medium/long-term bullish on the idea that the Fed will eventually appease the markets with Twist/QE3. I think the rally we've seen over the past few days has priced in the QE3 move. I'm looking for a short-term pop ONLY.

BTW - thanks for the NFLX play today! Made a bit of profit on the call. I hate going against your wisdom because of your stellar track record but I am expecting a fade this afternoon on lackluster news from the Fed.

This is what I'm expecting from Fed Announcement tomorrow:

No action = dollar rises
Twist = dollar slightly rises
QE3 = dollar falls
Other = dollar probably falls.


Based on this, VXX calls will be my play for today. It's unlikely that the Fed uses QE3. They will save that in case Europe goes crazy and countries begin defaulting/leaving the EU. JMO

His VXX 20 and 21 may not survive but I think VXX 17 is a slam dunk. I can see VXX finishing the week anywhere from 17-19 IMO. The market is due for a correction and VXX is oversold. Perfect setup on the Fed news tomorrow!

That's the thing though: I think this pump is perfect and when the market sells off tomorrow after the news comes out, he will look like a genius for holding! Buy the rumor, sell the news...

VRNG should hold $4.35 unless market tanks. If it doesn't hold, the next logical areas of support are $4.00 and $3.95. If you're a long-term trader, none of this matters because you're interested in the settlement. I expect that VRNG will bounce around in a given range until we draw closer to the trial (and possible settlement).

When is the Fed announcement expected? I'm assuming before the market opens?

Well I'm tied up in other positions atm or I would! I'm not a daytrader and so my round-trips are limited. It's a bit of a gamble but I don't think VXX will open more than 30 points higher overnight. Given that, VXX could still move to 18 by EOW and I would still be roughly tripling my position. It's more likely that the market opens green tomorrow and then fades IMO, although we both have the right idea with calls regardless.

VXX selling off again...perfect setup for the morning. I'll be loading calls heavily tomorrow morning!

VXX on watch - looking like a good technical spot for calls but I will wait until tomorrow morning to re-assess. With a Fed announcement, markets could rally early and then fade. VXX is also showing signs of oversold (overextended through lower bollinger on daily and 60min charts). Could possibly rebound to 18+ on a fade IMO.

I re-entered at 4.44. Well played!

COIN and VRNG are NOT linked. COIN has some VRNG shares, not the other way around. One company will endlessly reverse split into oblivion, the other will not. One company is one step closer to winning a settlement for hundreds of millions, one company is not.

Gap closed and inside bollinger band on 60min chart.


This can now move north...

I think BBBY could be priced a bit too, but the consensus that I've been picking up in my DD is that BBBY will overcome the rough economy and post another solid quarter at/above estimates. Last strong quarter yielded a 10% move and even if 4% is priced in, BBBY can still make 77.50 no problem.

I think BBBY puts are the way to go for earnings, but I won't fully decide until power hour. I think a strong move is priced in at this point and if guidance is not strong, BBBY with $70. And if they miss, it could be doubly worse IMO.

Was considering grabbing some calls this morning on UNG. Hmmmmm

VRNG currently overextended - buy more on the dip when it gets back into the bollinger bands! :)

Stocks on watch for me this week:

Waiting for any sign of pullbacks in GRPN, LNKD, UNG. Once technical analysis confirms that pullback is imminent, I will be looking to buy weekly puts. I'll also being doing some DD on the BBBY earnings play Wednesday. I'm leaning towards calls but I might skip it.

Any stocks on watch for the remainder of this week?

I'm really glad that I added at $3.52 this morning. I hope that this AH rally will translate into a strong opening tomorrow!

Yahoo board buzzing that the ruling is strong for VRNG and IP/E.

4:57 EDT - Video-ringtone company Vringo (VRNG) shares are halted ahead of a so-called Markman ruling. Markman hearings are pretrial gatherings at which a judge examines evidence from all parties on the appropriate meanings of relevant key words used in a patent claim. VRNG merger partner Innovate/Protect is suing a handful of firms--including Google (GOOG), AOL and Gannett (GCI)--about 2 of its patents involving search engines and online advertising. Shares rallied in the hour ahead of the 2:12pm halt, last trading at $3.85, up 4.9%. The stock has quadrupled this year--they tumbled in 2011--amid the merger deal and an investment from tech investor and Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. (ben.rubin@dowjones.com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 18, 2012 14:57 ET (18:57 GMT) Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 061812 18:57 -- GMT Story ID: JUN182012_DJB_02oD Keywords: CORPORATE ACTIONS, ALL COMPANY NEWS, LAWSUITS, PATENTS Symbols: AOL, GCI, GOOG, VRNG



Gonna be a wild swing tomorrow IMO

So it should remain halted through the rest of today, with a wild swing tomorrow morning, correct?

WHERE IS THE NEWS?!

I'm so excited - the anticipation is too much to handle!

Hoping for a SPY fade in power hour so that I can win the contest! DIE SPY DIE! LOL

If it's ridiculously good news, VRNG could open at double its halted price. WOW

If there's a settlement, this will open for double its price most likely.

Could the Markman decision come this quickly?

Monday's SPY close: 133.91

Still waiting for the afternoon sell-off. UNG will fall once bearish sentiment picks up steam. Chart being overextended helps too. I'm in at .08 though, so I'm hoping for a collapse to 16 :) I think that would yield .20-.25 by EOD but it's a tall order.

You'll see a retreat earlier than tomorrow. I think this will close around 16.25 and resume selling tomorrow morning as people become bearish into the Greek elections Monday. If the overall market begins selling off, UNG will follow imo. Plus, the chart is WAY overextended (see: 60min chart)


Edit: all IMO ofc lol

I'll be holding UNG puts through to tomorrow. The pop is distorting the chart technicals and it's way overextended on the 60min chart. Combine that with the sell-off that I expect in the afternoon and we have a good setup for a return to 16!

Nice work! I actually sold at .15 for an even trade (minus commissions). I just didn't think it was going to pop but I'm glad it did for you!

You should play the puts side now - UNG is overextended and will fall back to $16 today or tomorrow :)

Not sure what to make of LNKD this morning. Market was heavy green and LNKD was not responding. I still think it could run this afternoon.

I had the first sell order of KORS Jun 33p in this morning at .05 and someone bought 6. None of my options were sold :(

You think SPY can dip that low before tomorrow?

IMO, this is nothing we haven't heard before. We all know the Marksman ruling is coming in 2-4 weeks and the market knows that as well. This pop is great but I think it's going to fall back to the 3.30 range before it really takes off in early July (on Marksman ruling, not speculation of the ruling).

Jimmybob, thoughts on LNKD this morning? I thought for sure we would see a pop at open on the MACD cross but so far, it's not doing much...

I may try to salvage some of my position at .10 before time decay kills the 100 calls.

I would love a push to 105 but idk if it can make it before Friday...it would need positive news imo.

Did you identify the LNKD play on technicals or was it something else?

Hopefully you're wrong about LNKD! I'm hoping that the MACD cross tomorrow will yield a march to $100.

Yes, I'm looking at $98-$100 for LNKD. It's in a great technical spot (daily MACD cross) and the market looks like it turned EOD. Should see green tomorrow. I'll be selling at some point tomorrow because I think we will see a red Friday going into Greek elections Monday.


Look for resistances to be tested at $96 and $97.50 tomorrow. If they hit both, should see $100 if the market cooperates. If bad news hits the wires and the market trends low, you'll see less gains IMO. But it should still go green.


Edit: 800k shares traded in the last hour...price rose during so I expect the trend to continue north.