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Any thoughts on this post by winthebus on Yahoo?
OCT-06-2005 TRIAL MOTION IN DEPT. 304, PLAINTIFF'S MOTION TO DISMISS CROSS COMPLAINT DENIED AFTER HEARING. JUDGE RICHARD KRAMER, CLERK ANDREA CARNEY, REPORTER IRENE BURNS
OCT-06-2005 MINUTES FOR OCT-06-2005 3:30 PM
View:
The above entitled matter came regularly on calendar for hearing of the plaintiffs motion to
dismiss cross complaint. Court and counsel were present as listed above. The Court granted the
plaintiffs request for judicial notice. The Court tentatively denied the motion to dismiss.
Counsel addressed the Court in oral argument. The Court affirmed the tentative ruling and
denied the motion to dismiss. The defendant is to prepare the order.
OCT-06-2005 MOTION BY PLTF TO AMEND PROTECTIVE ORDER, PROOF OF SERVICE, POINTS AND AUTHORITIES, DECLARATION FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC., HEARING SET FOR OCT-31-2005 AT 01:30 PM IN DEPT 304
winthebus
10/17 seems to be a magical number. The Q3 05 conference call is on that date and the Spoliation hearing/trial in the Hynix case is scheduled to begin (barring any delays or East Coast antics).
Today's stock move is a little disconcerting given the flat market and no obvious negative news - hopefully the magic number won't also apply to the stock price (10.17).
The next few weeks will be very interesting and potentially very pivotal. I think a ruling finally clearing Rambus of "unclean hands" from a an honest and well-respected patent judge is the holy grail. The infringement portion is all but decided thanks to the SJs and there doesn't seem to be much credibility to the remaining affirmative defenses (latches, prior art, fraud at PTO...)
In addition, I think the AT suit is going to be the clincher in encouraging settlements should Rambus get a clean bill of health. Despite die-hards like Elixe who still believe that the MMs did not conspire to kill RDRAM, I think the writing is on the wall and I think Rambus and the DOJ have a lot of information showing colloborative discussions between MMs to limit RDRAM supply.
A clear victory for Rambus in the first of this trifecta of trials against Hynix should propel this stock. Then the FTC could grant Rambus' motion to reopen and Payne could come to his senses. Then maybe we'll have that 3 or 4 bagger after all.
If Inotera is half owned by IFX and half owned by Nanya - I could see Infineon demanding that Inotera be included in the settlement. Rambus may have sacrificed more than we know in their settlement although JMKEL did mention that Inotera's lawyers (or was it Nanya's) were requesting dismissal based on lack of jurisdiction. Like everything associated with Rambus, we'll have to wait in the dark until we get more information.
I’ve got to credit you for a really clean board. If it wasn’t for you I would have passed this board by and moved on. I’m sure many others would say the same.
Ahh man - Threejack's head is going to swell like a marshmallow in the microwave. I might as well add gasoline to the fire - Threejack's a fantastic moderator/contributor who is always on topic, always thoughtful, and always diplomatic and tactful. Thanks.
Back to more mundane matters - concerning the docket entry and Inotera, I think Nic might be right on this one...
From TMF
Far be it for me to point out once again that the Yahooligans probably have this wrong, but I thought Inotera was a JV including IFX. If that is the case, Rambus probably cannot sue Inotera as a result of the IFX license.
I'd have to see the scope of the license, for sure, but that is the most plausible explanation.
translation?
Nice - just skimmed the document submitted to the FTC and I have to admit, it is tantalizing. Rambus sure makes it sound like it has the goods on the "expert" testimonials from Micron and Hynix during the FTC trial. Rambus also makes a strong case for reopening - Rambus cites the commissions own rationale for reopening based on complaint counsel's arguments.
Things sure are getting juicy. If my pea brain understand the issues at stake for this consolidation motion, I will consider consolidation giving Sammie 3 weeks to prepare a win or a refusal to consolidate a win. No consolidation means we will finally get to proceed with spoliation and see what an impartial judge thinks of the whole mess. Pivotal indeed.
This is more suspenseful than waiting to see where Freddy from Elm Street will pop out next.
I'm more than a little confused by the deluge of information in the last 2 days or so. Is it possible that the Micron motion to stay the AT case is not in reference to Micron's interoculary appeal but instead in reference to Hynix or Samsung who have/are both attempting to compel arbitration in the AT case? Micron is a defendant in that case so I would assume they can make motions to stay the case. I didn't think Micron would be interested in arbitration.
Next question - is it really a blessing if Whyte denies Sammie's motion to consolidate? That way the Hynix spoliation trial will proceed and Whyte will have independently evaluated whether Rambus has unclean hands? Rambus needs someone (other than McGuire) to say that "sure they shred some stuff, but none of it was relevant or would have disadvantaged the MMs". Then Payne could still come out with his crazy rulings and Rambus could straighten that out at the CAFC, but the Hynix trial would still proceed because it is a DIFFERENT case. Then there'd be an infringement trial or settlements or both.
That would be nice. We'll find out soon.
Thanks again JMKEL!
Thanks for the update! Where did you get your info? Did you attend?
Any other impressions?
Any sense of Whyte's disposition towards either party?
Thanks again.
It's nice to see Micron make a profit - maybe someday they can afford to pay Rambus for the IP they've been "borrowing". Maybe not considering they have such strong political ties and amnesty from the DOJ.
Micron Shares Up After 4Q Beats Views
Friday September 30, 1:38 pm ET
Micron Technology Shares Surge 9.8 Percent After Fourth-Quarter Earnings Beat Views
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology Inc. surged 9.8 percent after the company posted fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates.
Shares were trading up $1.19 at $13.38 on very heavy volume on the New York Stock Exchange. Nearly five times the daily average of shares changed hands.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Boise, Idaho, company on Thursday said its net income shrank to $43.1 million, or 7 cents per share, for the quarter ended Sept. 1, down from $93.5 million, or 14 cents per share, a year earlier. The company paid off $100 million debt during the period.
Sales rose to $1.26 billion from $1.19 billion a year-ago.
On average, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were predicting a loss of 8 cents per share on $1.17 billion in sales.
Investors were likely also reacting to a Wall Street Journal report on the growth in NAND flash memory chips to store data, songs, photos and video in consumer electronics. Micron said NAND sales were five times higher in the fourth quarter than in the prior period.
For fiscal 2005, Micron posted profit of $188 million, or 29 cents per share, including $59 million in one-time gains, compared with $157.2 million, or 24 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts expected earnings, excluding one-time gains, of 13 cents per share on $4.78 billion in sales for the year.
If he feels his final decisions could be overturned later by not allowing Samsung enough time he may “agree to consolidate and postpone and reset the Spoliation trial.
Wow - you did nail this one - what's your prognosis from here on out?
I'm hoping Whyte's wording and reference to the VA proceedings means he's somewhat annoyed at the collective shenanigans and plans to only give Samsung an additional 30 days instead of the 90-120 they were hoping for.
Should Payne decide that his crusade is not finished, I'm also optimistic that Rambus can file an interoculary appeal on jurisdiction before the Time Machine is fired up. My fear is that on the same day that Payne decides this is an "exceptional case", he issues his treatise on why Rambus has unclean hands and is in fact the Devil incarnate. Not sure how Whyte would react to this - hoping he would ignore it.
I'm starting to feel somewhat optimistic which should have everyone here a little apprehensive. Like Threejack, I was happy to see Renesas re-sign - even Nic thought it was a big positive. I'm curious how much of the farm they had to give away to get them to play along. 5 years is a long time and given Rambus' recent litigation travails, I expect Renesas got a sweet deal- most likely better than the deal they had before. I'm afraid it will be a net loss to revenue, BUT it sets the groundwork for Rambus to collect from other companies using its controller IP.
At least someone is re-signing with Rambus...
Rambus Signs Patent License Agreement With Renesas Technology Corp.
Thursday September 29, 8:00 am ET
Five-Year Agreement Covers Memory and Logic Interfaces
LOS ALTOS, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 29, 2005--Rambus Inc. (Nasdaq:RMBS - News), one of the world's premier technology licensing companies specializing in high-speed chip interfaces, today announced it has signed a patent license agreement with Renesas Technology Corp. that allows the development and manufacture of integrated circuits (ICs) employing interfaces based on Rambus' patented inventions.
ADVERTISEMENT
The agreement is for a five-year term and covers high-speed controllers and other interfaces invented by Rambus. Under the agreement, Renesas will provide monetary and other compensation to Rambus. Specific terms of the agreement are confidential.
"Renesas is a global leader in the semiconductor market and signing this renewal represents strong validation of our patent portfolio," said Harold Hughes, chief executive officer at Rambus. "This agreement continues our relationship with an industry leader and expands the availability of our technology in the market."
Since its founding in 1990, Rambus has focused on advancing electronic system performance through innovations in logic and memory interfaces, controller architectures, and system design. The result is a broad portfolio of innovations and patents that enables semiconductor manufacturers and system designers to achieve ever-increasing levels of functionality and performance, to lower system costs, to mitigate risk with silicon-proven designs, and to reduce time to market. For more information on Rambus' patent portfolio, please visit www.rambus.com/products/innovationslicensing/.
Another substantive and on-topic post from Yahoo... Interesting that the stock is rallying (somewhat) toward the end of the trading day here. Very anxious to see what Payne does tomorrow and even more anxious to see how Whyte responds to Samsung's identification of Payne as the "expert".
Re: hmmm
by: b_wilberforce_wooster 09/27/05 02:30 pm
Msg: 805900 of 805908
"are you kidding.Sharon Holt was beaten with an ugly stick"
Let me guess- you are one of the "men" from our proudest generation to date that feels if a women doesn't have tits the size of truck tires and wear high heals and leather around the house, she is a dog. A fine group of "men" indeed. No wonder our daughters think they have to wear g-strings to school and dress like sluts just to get a boy's attention.
Terry - I have seen you around the Yahoo MBs associated with such infamous duds as IDEV (me too), DSCO (me too), and APHT (didn't get suckered in on that one). What stocks are you perusing now - I'll be sure to keep my distance. ;>
SCO and RMBS. Weak hand overplayed, p***ed off the very
people they need to make any honest money.
Don't think SCO and RMBS are in the same league when it comes to the stength of their case/patents, but as you pointed out, I'm hardly objective. I do agree that the real winners are the lawyers. I've equated lawyers with the Legions of Hell in the past and I'm not too much rosier on them now.
This is one way to escape Payne...
http://investor.rambus.com/downloads/2005-9-22%20Notice%20of%20Filing%20of%20Covenant%20Not%20to%20S...
It appears Rambus has filed a covenant not to sue on the remaining two patents at stake in VA. Nice quick read. Covered my short. We'll see what's next.
I, for one, am sick to my stomach on this train wreck. I haven't the sense nor the gumption to cut bait. What I can't figure out is why a couple of bright guys like Pruf and Threejack are still taking this sucker's bet. I chalk up my own presence here to masochism. Spank me again, Judge Payne ;>.
The percentage loss today was being kept to a minimum till the afternoon and seems to have broken albeit on small volume.
The real problem here is the opportunity cost. The beaten up longs are still optimistic that the long term holds promise, but what kind of return on investment could you get or could you have gotten elsewhere?
A settlement for chump change with Sammie is not going to propel this stock. It was ok with Infineon because Infineon doesn't have 30 something percent market share. But if Rambus settles for scraps from the top dog, that's all they'll ever get.
Now that the sharks have tasted blood, they'll keep circling the patent litigation waters. Payne and our farce of a judicial system have removed any leverage Rambus had to negotiate RAND!
My fear is that resolution is 3+ years away IF Rambus does not let the remaining MMs walk all over them. So if the time value of money doesn't get you, the lousy valuation will.
Getting more pessimistic as I write this.
2.DDR is where the money is and is not subject to the JEDEC BS story. And isn't there a separate trial on DDR1 2 3, and GDDR that's not in Virginia?
This bothers me - Can't Rambus just say screw SDRAM royalties - let's collect on the DDR flavors which are unencumbered by Payne's mad machinations?
All is not bleak.
I don't detect a lot of conviction here. Rambus down very little on half normal volume today despite the indices taking it on the chin thanks to the interest-rate happy fed.
The trading still troubles me - people aren't capitulating even after considering the Payne factor. For full disclosure purposes - I put on a short two days ago as a hedge for my long calls.
Over 1500 Feb 2006 12.5 strike calls were traded today (up 60 cents). This looks like someone buying based on inside info again. If it was part of a hedge - i.e. shorting the stock and then going long calls - they would have used cheaper shorter term options. It could be someone selling calls vs a long position, but the trading has been so odd lately that I can't help but think something else is going on.
Monday will be very telling. If the stock drops significantly, it suggests the trading yesterday and today was controlled by the MMs or whomever sold all the damn puts.
We shall see - if the strength (in the face of bad news) continues, I would say something is afoot.
Have a nice weekend.
One other comment - Judges Whyte and Ambler have already invested considerable time and energy in the Hynix vs Rambus case. Does he really want another judge (East Coast at that) telling him what the right conclusion on spoliation is? If he is to be nominated or elected to the CAFC or another appeals court, you'd think it would be of some import that the trials he's overseen have produced solid results. Does he want the taint of Payne associated with his record?
Between Threejack and ownerofbusiness being so pessimistic, I am ready to go short. Given that Rambus has more than 4 patents at stake in California, isn't there any hope they can still emerge victorious? We either need Whyte to snub Payne and not grant Samsung time or we need Rambus to preempt Payne with a request for Writ of Mandamus. What does judicial efficiency mean? Where's the due process? Does anyone really give a rat's ass about equity? Payne is more than I can stomach and I sincerely hope that the angst he has caused me and other Rambus shareholders returns to him tenfold. Where's Karma when you need her?
Anyway - this from Owner...
by: ownerofbusiness 09/15/05 08:36 am
Msg: 802593 of 802622
Judge Payne laid out the roadmap for Samsung. First, he suggested that Samsung file a motion to intervene in Whyte's court in the Hynix v. Rambus case. He said that Samsung ought to consider this seriously under the Parklane decision and he couldn't figure out why Samsung hadn't done so yet.
Secondly, he nudged Mr. Healey of Samsung into agreeing to accept the Infineon trial record.
Payne is very, very clever. He wants Samsung to intervene so that Whyte grants Samsung time to "get ready". Whyte's acceptance of Samsung's intervention will likely delay the Oct 17 date in his court as Samsung will argue that they need time to get up to speed etc.
Then Payne can give Samsung in his court the decision they seek, as he'll have the time to conduct a "hearing" if he feels he can't grant Samsung's motion for partial summary judgment on the IFX record.
IANAL & IMHO
This sounds pretty dire...
Re: There is NO court record that PAYNE
by: intl_lwyr 09/14/05 09:09 pm
Msg: 802377 of 802379
correct. This ends the dream. Payne cites his IFX decision v. rmbs as an important reason for keeping the case. Therefore, he will come to the same conclusion in this case. Once he does rmbs is precluded under common principles of CE from relitigating that before Whyte.
It is now over.
Are you saying my gut is wrong?
Give me a plausible alternative scenario? Samsung is buying Intel or IBM is buying Rambus or Samsung is buying Rambus? I don't believe for a second that someone is buying Rambus and definitely not Intel - they've already got access to all the patents for free for life. My guess is that IBM was smart enough to incorporate the possibility that Rambus gets acquired and asked that certain legal language be put in there saying that if Rambus is acquired, IBM still gets access to the patents it needs. And if Samsung buys Rambus to compete with Intel, Intel still has access to the patents.
Doesn't sound like Payne is punting based on recent "covenants not to sue" filings.
Do you think the FTC is going to let Rambus off the hook?
So what is it?
Micron has been awful quiet lately...
If we're going to throw crazy ideas out there, I'll reiterate a Micron/Rambus settlement. The biggest place for leaks is the government and then next would be the loud mouths of Idaho.
My gut says that a couple people got a view of the "covenant not to sue" headline and pushed the price up and then shorts started covering and longs started adding. Then, the MMs and traders saw how easy it was to manipulate this stock and the retail investors and went for round 2 today. I might have to add some cheap October calls in case there is any truth to any of this. Might be a waste of premium.
BTW - this board gets more enjoyable to read by the day. Thanks to those coming out of the woodwork!
Another spike and retracement. This is such an emotionally charged stock that even the slightest whiff of a legal victory will send the shorts scurrying which is what I think we're seeing. All it takes is a rumor placed in a couple ears and some MMs to start manipulating this thing and you get some nervous shorts covering (Jim Cramer is probably one of them).
I'd like to think it is the start of a chain of legal victories for the Bus, but the doubting Thomas in me says wait and see.
Looking for something on there that would explain the price spike - don't see it. A lot of manipulation going on here - not sure if there is any good news behind it at all...
Regina is always good for comic relief - her and Scruffy have some amusing yet poignant observations on the Rambus saga. Some interesting comments from ownerofbusiness over there as well. Speaking of Regina, she has mentioned in the past that ownerofbusiness is in fact a large Rambus shareholder (not as large as Stu, but large) and I think he routinely attends the VA trials. He also recently stated that Payne doesn't seem to like Rambus any more now than he did a few months ago.
I have to agree that when the Rocket Man from the Rocket Docket takes more than 5 heartbeats to make a ruling, it will not be good for Rambus. It's always those cases where Rambus' arguments seem most strong that Payne takes the longest. He has to do his research and find some obscure case law that almost kind-of relates to the case at hand and then morph that conclusion into one that suits him. I always thought that Payne took his research directly from Desmaris' playbook.
Should we be surprised if Payne decides to finally put to page his oral ruling that Rambus has spoliated and hence all their patents are invalid and unenforcable?
Nice job, elixe.
And I thought Elixe's only talents were pushing Calbiker's buttons. Glad I was too damn busy at work to buy any more Rambus calls.
I'll wait till the spoliation trial/hearings actually begin in October and add then - we should be back to 10 bucks by that time.
Have a nice weekend all.
09/08/2005 35 Covenant Not to Sue filed by Rambus Inc. (kste, ) (Entered: 09/08/2005)
This says just enough to get the imagination running wild - is it possible that Rambus had some "covenant" with Samsung in the past and that the honorable Judge Robert Payne wanted a copy and this is nothing more than Rambus submitting the "covenant" to his honor? Or maybe in order for Payne to agree to punt this to CA, Rambus had to agree not to sue Samsung in a VA court (like they would anyway).
I've been beaten up so much on this stock that I won't believe there's good news till Rambus issues a press release.
I think Heinrich has discovered the reason for the run-up yesterday. It is speculation based on the skimpy headline which leads one to believe, at first blush, that a settlement is in the works.
I still can't see Samsung buying Rambus - the only reason I think this is a remote possibility is "maximus painintheassus" factor which states that Rambus management must do all in its power to screw the shareholders.
As I postulated yesterday, I would expect a buyout (if any) in the 16-17 range which is crumbs compared to Rambus potential.
What has changed over the last few weeks that would convince Samsung to settle more on Rambus' terms or to even take it out? Maybe Payne did punt and Sammie didn't like the way things were heading?
I am going to be the sucker this morning and buy some more calls - maybe some Jan 2006's...
I agree with Mike about not settling with Micron on principle BUT Rambus will never get more than peanuts from them anyway because of its political clout, its amnesty, and its lap dog, the FTC. I say settle with Micron, get the FTC out of our hair and exact the pound of flesh from Samsung and Hynix. I'm sure we can convince our protectionist government (DOJ) to help us persecute those slimy Korean manufacturers. (I don't really believe this last statement).
I hope to hell there isn't some sort of buyout in the works - If mgmt sells out at these prices, it will be the icing on the cake. Very heavy option activity today:
12,000 sep 12.5 calls
4000 feb 15 calls
2700 oct 12.5 calls
2700 nov 12.5 calls
2500 feb 06 15 strike puts
This last set of options (the 15 strike puts) leads me to believe that if there is any truth to these "rumors", then the proposed buyout price is in the neighborhood of 15 bucks a share. The seller of the puts knows he'll be able to keep every dime of premium if the company is bought out above 15. With the 12.5s and the 15s being the most active, I expect a buyout price (if true) to be around $16 a share which leaves my 2007 25 strike leaps worthless. I hope it's only a rumor but it wouldn't surprise me to see Rambus mgmt screw me once again.
More likely, IMO, Payne is punting or Micron and Rambus are going to settle - I only add this last because of the recent conference (or upcoming conference - can't remember) where both Micron and Rambus are platinum sponsors.
I hope it's Payne punting, but I could see Micron settling with Rambus and then pushing Rambus to not settle with Samsung.
We'll see...
People have already said it far more succinctly than I could, both here and on TMF, but I just wanted to public express my sadness to hear of Cor's passing and my appreciation for all that he added to the Rambus discussion.
Nxt - thank you for your attempt to get the Yahooligans back on subject with your thoughtful post...
Have any of you read teh FTC docs?
by: Send me a message! nxt999nxt 08/31/05 07:45 pm
Msg: 798017 of 798033
It sure would be nice to have a discussion about the new documents than the alternative threads on the board.
Perhaps I'm the only one, but I still find the arguments of Rambus against the FTC much more compelling than the smoke, mirrors, and innuendo that the FTC throws out.
FTC continues to cite Timony's early "adverse presumptions" and Payne's from the hip (no documentation supplied) criticism of Rambus' having destroyed unknown documents that surely would somehow have made either the FTC's original case of IFX's case.
Stone did a good job addressing point by point the FTC's sloppiness, and their attempts to punish Rambus in a manner unheard of.....and yet the FTC counsel still can't put their finger on the crime...what documents could have possible been destroyed that would have changed anything that McGuire found?
Truly, if the FTC can't find their way out of this case.....surely...the Court of Appeals can do it.
It still puzzles me after all these years how every other FTC case has settled - some even with large, but not unreasonable financial penalties for true fraudulent actions to take advantage of either consumers or markets....but this case still hangs on.
With the exception of the DELL case, where their VP stated in a standards body that they would not assert their patents...and then tried to....there is nothing close to this attempted lynching.
With several relatively new FTC commissioners, I would hope that their professional reputations are worth enough to them for them to come down on the side of justice here.
Not liking today's above average volume (almost 50% greater) with no news. I'm expecting to hear tomorrow or Thursday that Payne is indeed interested in killing that snake once and for all.
It is the system, and if high end managers are to be aquired, they will have to be promised the options. They were given that as compensation and they have the rights to them if they so wish. If not given those rights they go where they get those rights because they can.
Paul - typically I agree with your posts and appreciate your perspective, but I take great umbrage at the above myopic view.
High-end managers - where, who? I hope you're not referring to Tate and the rest? Do you think anyone is banging down their doors to hire them - let's get that guy from Rambus who helped destroy over 85% of shareholder value over the last 5 years. If they do get jobs elsewhere, it is because of the incestous "quid pro quo" relationship in business. Just because a majority of corporations turn a blind eye to executive compensation doesn't mean that shareholders should be happy about it. It is "our" money that is being pissed away on overpaid underperforming mgmt. Please give me a good reason why Tate and friends have the "right" to these options. Any CEO or COB worth his salt would suspend his automatic option exercise when the stock is languishing.
There should be a lot of irate shareholders and those with the power to do something, should. I suppose investors who own 7 or 8% of the company and are apathetically watching as their bankroll dwindles are suffering like the rest of us and deservedly so. I just have such a hard time with the laissez faire attitude of modern-day investors and the assumption that if "everyone is doing it", it must be ok.
BTW - OT - If Elan has become a significant portion of your holdings, be very careful. • [$$] MS Drug Tysabri May Be Tied To Other Serious Side Effects
"On the basis of current earnings, one can defend a stock price of approx. $ 5."
Cor - at first I thought you were full of crap with that number but when I look at the most recent quarterly income statement (6/30/05), I see that operating earnings were 5.6 million. If we ignore the other income/expense category and apply the 40% corporate tax rate, we see that net income is a paltry 3.36 million. If we multiply by 4 and divide by 100 (shares outstanding), I arrive at EPS of .1344 and then if I use a respectable 30X (some might consider this high) ratio to earnings, I get a valuation of 4.0 a share - pretty pathetic. They do have 1.7 per share in net cash so as things stand now, RMBS is justifiable at 5.7 a share. BUT - what will operating earnings look like next quarter with Sammie no longer paying and how 'bout the quarter after that with Toshiba and/or Hitachi not paying or paying a reduced amount (assuming they re-up) and then how does it look a year later with Intel not contributing 10 mill a quarter. I think the valuation is quickly approaching cash so if it's any comfort to anyone, Rambus is at least worth 1.7 a share.
By the end of the year, Rambus' operating earnings net of taxes will be less than Tate's average gross option exercises over the last 5 years.
Does this strike anyone else as unseemly?
Absent a licensing deal, in which one or more major players (sorry, theminor fabless guys do not count) voluntarily agree to pay big bucks per unit sold, I see no suport here. The CAFC is also a well known wildcard; reversal rates are 50%. The big houses know that even with a big win at the trial court level, Rambus is still facing an indefinite future if it continues the litigation route. And resolution is years away...
So I see no reason why single digits are not coming, particularly given the lack of significant commercial success of the other products, and the apparent lack of support in the 5 - 10 range.
Da Greek
The above post from Da Greek on TMF has garnered 8 recs already. Since when does a statement of the obvious merit the recommendation button.
Let me summarize Nic's brilliant analysis - absent positive developments, Rambus could likely trend lower.
not encouraging...
Re: ownerofbusiness?
by: ownerofbusiness 08/25/05 01:42 pm
Msg: 796275 of 796423
Thanks for the ping. Yes, I attended the hearing in Richmond. IMHO Payne still isn't fond of Rambus but that shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone here.
It's that time again - it's time for the Tate Tally - my weekly rant about the selfishness and avarice of Rambus' COB and former CEO.
Treowth was kind enough to remind me that Tate's exercise spree continues and that was enough to stoke the fires of animosity and outrage at the unfairness of the self-dealing occurring at the top spot over at our favorite IP company. Before I lambaste Geoff, it should be noted that the BOD is responsible for this travesty and ultimately it is the complacent shareholders who are now reaping (or not reaping in this case) what they have sown.
That said, I don't know how Tate can sleep at night (I assume he sleeps quite well) knowing that he has been awarded exorbitant sums for a job not well done. The latest Tate Tally shows that over the past 5 years, Geoffrey Tate and Geoffrey Ross Tate (I'm assuming they're one and the same) have exercised 2,234,700 options for total gross proceeds of $53,362,635. Now of course, I don't know what the grant prices were on these, but my guess is that most of this is pure profit. The only one other than Tate smiling about this would be the other board members he paid off (conjecture by me) and Uncle Sam of course who's collected a large fortune in taxes (unless of course Geoff is guilty of tax evasion).
So, Mr. Tate has raked in over $10,000,000 a year for the last 5 years in options alone. He also gets paid a VERY generous salary and probably gets a bonus for his superb performance. We now know Mr. Tate has done well for himself over the last 5 years - how about the sucker shareholders during that time. A quick look at a 5 year chart for Rambus shows that the stock has gone from a split adjusted 80 a share to barely double digits today. The shares have lost 86% of their value during this period. Where is the justice - why is this fair? To rub salt into the wound, this boob still has over 5.3 million options available to be exercised.
I'm still waiting for some crumbs here and I will probably continue to b*tch and moan in the meantime.
Zack's would have looked a little more prescient had they put this recommendation out a few months ago. Like most analyst research, it is reactive rather than forward-looking.
Can't wait for the Matrix Experience, God willing.
There you go, Threejack - spouting off about religion again.
As far as I'm concerned we're already plugged into the matrix and those damn machines have taken over the world and are using us as batteries.
I'm hoping for some good news from VA today. I've got my finger on the trigger - I just don't know if it's the sell trigger or the buy trigger. Probably won't sell at these levels either way.
It looks like PCI will be the next battleground once the RAM lawsuits get sorted out. I'd be shocked to see everyone play nice and pay Rambus for their technology. I know Watzman was always yakkin' about everyone using Rambus' controller technology for free. Litigation will a part of the Rambus business model for the duration.
I'd really like to know exactly what is covered by the Intel-Rambus agreement. Is there any reason for Intel to re-sign with Rambus - is there any technology that Intel isn't paying for? I have such a hard time coming to terms with the idea that any patent issued before the agreement is up in 2006 is fully paid up and Intel can use to its heart's content. Why would Intel re-up? They can have flexphase and controllers and XDRAM and RASER at no additional cost forever.
Oh well - a nugget of further collaboration with Intel at IDF would be a "god-send". I "pray" that Payne discontinues his "crusade" against the Bus and that the "legions of the damned" (MM lawyers) are unsuccessful in their unholy quest to vilify our "martyrs" (Rambus engineers - not mgmt - those money-grubbers). Should our "saints" prevail and the treasures of "heaven" unfold, I will begin my "mecca" to the holy land of Cabo to pay homage.
VA2 is done and all litigation between Rambus and Infineon is settled.
I think our resident royalty, the prince, was being sarcastic - but that could just be my take. He may have been alluding to the fact that if Payne keeps the Samsung ball in VA's court, the dreaded Infineon vs Rambus proceedings are likely to repeat themselves over and over in a repetitive, echo-like, ad-nauseum, redundant nature. We should know this week, n'est pas?