Rambus (RMBS)

[Skeptic]

10/17 seems to be a magical number. The Q3 05 conference call is on that date and the Spoliation hearing/trial in the Hynix case is scheduled to begin (barring any delays or East Coast antics).
Today's stock move is a little disconcerting given the flat market and no obvious negative news - hopefully the magic number won't also apply to the stock price (10.17).
The next few weeks will be very interesting and potentially very pivotal. I think a ruling finally clearing Rambus of "unclean hands" from a an honest and well-respected patent judge is the holy grail. The infringement portion is all but decided thanks to the SJs and there doesn't seem to be much credibility to the remaining affirmative defenses (latches, prior art, fraud at PTO...)
In addition, I think the AT suit is going to be the clincher in encouraging settlements should Rambus get a clean bill of health. Despite die-hards like Elixe who still believe that the MMs did not conspire to kill RDRAM, I think the writing is on the wall and I think Rambus and the DOJ have a lot of information showing colloborative discussions between MMs to limit RDRAM supply.


A clear victory for Rambus in the first of this trifecta of trials against Hynix should propel this stock. Then the FTC could grant Rambus' motion to reopen and Payne could come to his senses. Then maybe we'll have that 3 or 4 bagger after all.