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Tom posted this on TTForum on SWC
Nice end of day candle shaping up on SWC (a platinum/pladium play and sold off I think on a buyout they just made). Mike
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02320624694&a=206914400
TZA: Thx, like the looks of the chart. Gee...did you see the explosive move QPSA was making...didn't have time this morning to zero in on it and now sorry I didn't make the time somehow.
TZA getting a small amount of action here as it approached daily lows. Not sure it will go. Interesting as well that XLF can't seem to get going even though a decent volume day - was thinking it would head for 15.20-25 today, but just seems to have stalled at 15.05-10 area after that nice move in JPM & GS.
Other:
On the Debt ceiling. I so far don't see that the House Republicans have enough votes to support the emerging Senate plan. The issue here is that no matter who talks to them they think that folks are wrong/bluffing etc them on the potential issues associated with a default on US debt. Its kind of like they live in some parallel universe on how markets act/react. Fascinating to see how strange our political factions have gotten (some of it refreshing but some it scary...). So not good from what I'm seeing on the debt ceiling. Would be curious to see if any of you are getting info that contradicts my impression here. Mike
re: A, Orange, snoot, Trend
I must say I found all of this a bit strange.
On the other hand, A is not someone that adheres to technicals/charts as most of us see it... He I guess looks at channels only (not sure here). Which can at times beat the pants off of us folks that look at purely technicals....
Regardless, we all have bad days or where we are frustrated and my sense is that even if he wasn't having a frustrating day, that he may have just been in a bit of a terse mood (I can be guilty of the same thing more than I like to admit). So I like A's contributions but thought your post here to Orange, Trend, snoot was good. Mike
Trend
I love this post....thx for the added insight. 70....man keep it up as best as you can...I know at 54 I'm having issues I never expected --- yepper I was one of those cocky jocks when I played Football, Basketball, & ran track...gee that seems so far away.....
Thx, I'll have to give fidelity a call to see how to trade it.
re: RTSA
I've tried to buy this before. The alert I got said it only trades at the close. Its designed to be a longer term version of TZA (e.g., its re-calcualted once a month I think rather than TZA that is re-calculated each day (which often can work against you). Its supposed to 8x leverage I think. Right now not sure how to trade it (e.g., not sure if their is some window during last 15 minutes that allows you to put an order in). Fidelity is not clear about this... Mike
re: ES, etc
Thx on the ES chart. I'm watching .dxy at the moment and it looks to me like its printing a modest inverse head and shoulders over past two days (that may give it a base to spring higher tomorrow morning). The shoulders are at approx 75-75.15 and head just south of that at approx 74.75-80. Not quite sure though how to interpret some of these more recent currency moves.... Currently I have dxy bouncing around between $75.10 to 75.15.
Interesting... I see a somewhat impressive bounce at approx 9.50 eastern at $75.01. So we could have a little more to upside in the morning if US dollar holds in this 75.10-15 range.
sdpro...yes, enough clarification on that topic. Like I said I was reluctant to post it, but I have done a lot of work and thought about it and I figured I would be doing folks a disservice if I didn't say something. That said.... back to minute by minute tracking of the market (and other timeframes...).
--By the way here is a couple of very interesting links on this stuff if you guys want to read it. Mike
1--General Article---
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-democrats-not-ready-to-play-14th-amendment-card-with-debt-ceiling/2011/07/06/gIQAVU1O1H_story.html
2--Blog by Constitutional Scholar on the issue -- "Could the 14th Amendment end debt ceiling negotiations?"--
http://live.washingtonpost.com/14th-Amendment-debt-ceiling-chat.html
3--This is more complicated (but I referenced it earlier (Perry v US))--
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?navby=case&court=us&vol=294&invol=330#354
Done...I hope.... and I hope this provides some background for folks so they aren't caught by surprise (if this does occur). Mike
Trend: re: SS & Medicare
A different story I think. This is not a perfect solution for that reason.
The President, by everything I see, can take certain extraordinary actions like this from a constitutional perspective due to the idea that this can cause a financial & likely constitutional crisis if he didn't...... and he has support in various clauses of the constitution to do it without violating the Congresses ability to "appropriate" funds ('cause we are talking about appropriations already made -- he is just "servicing the debt").
That said....Treasury will have some latitude under current appropriations to juggle things..... but constitutionally I don't think they can unilaterally allocate revenues to address SS and Medicare if they run out of funds to do it (under the current debt ceiling). So this extraordinary action by the executive (if taken) would be reassuring to markets since the US is "ensuring the integrity of the US debt"...but I don't think they don't have as much latitude on things that are not purely debt related (like insurance or benefits programs).
So...if true....then soon there after there will be a big mess on folks missing Soc Sec checks and the like (and even before that folks will be calling for impeachment for him even exercising this -- which will likely fail....). So could be nasty.
Overall, I don't think Obama prefers this path but he is a constitutional scholar of sorts so he knows about this possibility and the latitude that recent Presidents have been able to exercise authority to solve extraordinary problems. So likely it will be a domestic mess for a several weeks (and if headway not made on longer term debt issues in next several weeks/months then we will see these rating agencies back. This to me is a key point in his Presidency to see how he wades through all this....
Trend, yw. Like I said though I'm just passing along more as info "for you back pocket". And only providing on this board (even though the info is not within the spirit of the board's premise) - because it could be potentially game changing... I... I have read the "tea leaves" correctly between now and Monday. If not....then we haven't lost anything. However, if Political leadership on both sides continues the infighting and no real adults emerge here -- then 'game on' for a rocky ride from here until early August....Mike
Trend
I don't want to debate the issue here (because its somewhat complex & not the place for it). I was just giving a heads up to the possibility as I see it.
Off topic: As a matter of background--
This is a fairly well known issue and was substantiated by a 1935 case related to the integrity of the debt. It still would be controversial though if Obama did it.
For reference, see clause 4 of the 14th amendment that deals with the subject that the US debt cannot be questioned (and use the 1935 Perry v. US case to understand the interpretation of that clause).
The general interpretation is that Congress has to honor its obligations and the US (via the Treasury) is responsible for ensuring that the debt obligations are serviced.
Note: There has been a lot of debate here in constitutional circles in the recent past that Obama likely has the right to invoke that clause (and be successful). Regardless, this would only be a partial fix to this whole mess of the debt (but would largely remove the issue off the table of whether the US was willing to honor previous debt obligations).
re: Moody's & now....S&P downgrade
I'm thinking sdpro that this may be at least partially resolved tomorrow or no later than Monday (if I'm reading things correctly).
Obama appears ready to take significant action (via executive order) if the Congress does not have a credible plan by tomorrow. I think he will give them until Friday afternoon to have a plan. If not, by Monday I'm thinking he'll issue an executive order bypassing Congress on the debt ceiling issue.
If I got that correct, then we should see a lot of fireworks soon...and if Obama perceived forceful enough...that may even lift the issue/uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling mess.
So, I'll be paying attention to intraday market action and potential whipsaws prior, during and after 11 am (eastern) press conference scheduled tomorrow on this subject.
However, I'm not sure if he will be this blunt on his potential action tomorrow (or if he will wait until this weekend or early next week to issue an executive order). This of course is speculation. But I'm throwing it out there 'cause it could alter Market Sentiment in a hurry (in either direction, but right now I'm thinking it will be to the upside).
We'll see. Just passing this on as "side" info just in case my thought here pans out. Mike
re: Rating Warnings.
Actually this is Moody's 2nd warning (S&P made one in late April). Moody's warned back in June just after the first jobs report. At the time, they warned that they would put the US "under review" by approx mid July if no progress made on the political front (not sure of their exact words here).
So part of this is baked into the markets (but still the path here is troublesome and like will cause added intraday volatility as this stuff dribbles out on the US and European countries).
At any rate, the ratings agencies have been very clear on their incremental approach especially with rest to US Sovereign Debt as we wind our way to Aug 2/3 and beyond.
re: Russell (IWM/TNA/TZA)
TZA got to an intraday low of $32.27. Trying to hang in on an Inverse H&S at approx $32.45
IWM got up to $84.50 (was looking to see it tag somewhere in the $84.81 (June 1 high) to $85.30 level ($85.28 was the low of May 2).
Overall spooky action to me... & didn't like the treasury auctions today which was 0%. Haven't seen that for a long time (and normally an auction like this can signal at least temporary trouble ahead).
Trying to keep one eye on vxx, Aussie & US dollar, TLT/TNX, APPL RIO, etc for heads up on turn in this leg... re: Russell (IWM/TNA/TZA)
Like the follow up SS on the potential H&S and pull back point. Thx
Yes, SS's chart points to say 1353-1355 as a potential pullback point. That tracks with some other charts that this group has drawn - most of which point to 1345, but some that point 1355 if not 1360 as the upper point on this leg up. Interesting. Mike
Snoot, TRAN strikes me here as a very bullish chart.
I will say though that I do have a concern that we could drop precipitously (and that will change my view if that happens). I have targeted for instance 1230-40 as an area we should test to get the charts right (if not the 1190 area).
However, your chart on TRAN points to support at 5300, with worst case at 5200 on initial look. That overall looks bullish to me despite some serious headwinds that I think we are facing in the coming weeks.
That is, the various Sovereign debt issues could create a precipitating event/meltdown in markets over coming weeks. But so far we are seeing that the markets are largely shrugging off that concern.
That said, in coming weeks I can see where we may finally get that 10% correction. But for now, the markets are buying at that 1250-60 level on S&P (and the Transports seems to be reflecting that as a reality when looking at pull back points on that chart).
Don't get me wrong, I see a lot of reasons to say that we are seeing an unrealistic bear market type bounce here, but I find it hard to ignore the embedded stochastics I'm seeing at high levels (over 80 to 95 level for several periods on several indices/sector charts on daily, weekly, monthly charts).
So to confirm a more bearish tone, we would need to hard and fast price destruction soon. I think that is not in the cards for the next week (but not out of the question of course).
Otherwise, I'm not ruling out a 10% pull back test in later weeks, but I really like the bullish move here (and this move provides a fair amount support or "cushion" to the longer term trend we are seeing on the charts).
So saying I'm in your camp to a large degree that we should see a pull back here (and that could extend), but thinking that the charts say it won't be here where we will have the big pull back. That comes later, and even then I think the longer term bullish trend will stay intact. Mike
BIG, your NYMO chart indicates getting now very overbought here.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p08544410951&r=3294
If this move holds and we crest into 1345-50 today/Tuesday, then would expect this will dovetail with a very extreme overbought indication by Tuesday and a trading range which tops out near 1350 (from 1250).
Think we should see near mid-week at least a "piece" of this move taken back. Say 25 pts (or a bit more). Mike
BT, yes re: Bullish.
All the action price wise and the improvement in the stochastics on indices to 80 plus over several periods points to 'buying the pull backs' rather than going short into resistance... especially in front of the ECB decision on Thursday (that the should provide a floor under the euro and the market in the short term).
Some offline/non technical rationale:
The caveat I have is that as we get into the Jobs report territory on Friday, then we likely will have a negative report (some of which I think is already baked in).
As well, as we get toward middle to end of month we will start hearing more about the Debt ceiling mess and the unwise "brinkmanship" here being played by the House of Representatives. This to me is extremely important to the market health (especially since Moody's may have a downgrade of US Debt due to this brinkmanship coming in mid July in front of the August 2 deadline).
The issues around US and Foreign debt issues (US, Italy & Spain in particular) here are my big overall concern. These will be headwinds (but market is fighting thru this at every turn of the market.
I think these headwinds will be resolved in time and actually the Obama Administration has a potential path around this problem due to a clause in the 14th Amendment which makes the National debt sacrosanct- can explain later - but the clause is something like this ".....the validity of the US debt, authorized by law shall not be questioned...." Although this would be controversial...It gives Obama an "Ace" up his sleeve, and gives him some latitude to actually raise or ignore the debt ceiling in front of that August 2 deadline.
All that said, my overall view here is modestly bullish short to mid term (longer term much more bullish - which I have been in that camp for a long time now).
I have big concerns on these debt issues which can be market rattling/shaking...but the technicals in chart patterns, technical measures and the forks tell the market says for now we are to go up. Until that changes, I have to observe that the charts are telling despite my concerns otherwise.
Sorry for the over explanation here, but hope that helps to tidy up my short versus longer term concerns & view.... Mike
BT, I have 1336 as half of that big as..s candle from June 1.
Will be worth watching to see how we hold 1330 and then action at that 1335-1336 level when it comes. The fact that we are eating into that candle with this much vigor is impressive.
Seems to reinforce the idea you have that we should look to 1300 or higher to see if that is the place to build a base/platform to support later moves to the upside. Mike
Agree, I have USD (.dxy) bouncing off of an intraday trend line I have drawn approx $74.45. Key area here to keep track of to see if it breaks down further. Oops.. as I wrote this seeing a break on the 1 minute & trying to recover. This so far is a strong move up on even though on light holiday volume, may continue through to Tuesday Morning. We should be getting overbought here so thats another area to watch out for. Got like this move up so far though.
TLT still holding the line from yesterday, any break and hold below yesterday's low will give added insight as to whether this can continue for a bit longer (yesterday's low on TLT was 93.14, today's low is $93.41). Mike
RBN Robbins & Meyers -- Strong looking chart. Needs to pull back toward 9 ema. Currently its $3 off its $55 high back about 4 years ago.
Not sure If I got this right but here is attempt to post my .png files for RBN--
Daily
Weekly
Link for Daily/Weekly (just in case...)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2011/6/30/uqslfRBN_Daily_June_30_2011.png
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2011/6/30/lxihwRBN_Weekly_June_30_2011.png
China PMI 50.9 for June. Down from May which was 52 I think. It was below what was forecast but good for mkts mid to long term. Korea trade data was lower than expected (but they raised for year forecasts significantly.
Overall, World markets modestly up (approx .5%) and look to be at or near same resistance areas they tested and pulled back from yesterday. Australia down a bit.
Euro modestly down against dollar. Mike
Meant DIA 12400 on last post.
US Dollar,TLT, VIX treading water here. Indices near my upside targets 12,190 DIA, 1325 SPX, IWM $82.50. TZA at moment sitting at around $34.50.
TLT printed a decent looking hammer earlier in day on 1 min. If no break down from here on USD, VIX, TLT, then should see at least a retrace of previous few days run soon (which on many charts looks like the 3 candle white soldier pattern -so thinking a 50% retrace of this recent move is a possible scenario).
Tech also looks to have settled out yesterday (e.g., AAPL trading at around $335 area past couple of days after a nice move up). Mike
BT/Jerry: SPX Fork, TLT/TNX, USD decision point
1-Jerry, on your 15 min fork, it crested slightly intraday past the top of green fork and then tucked back under.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&i=p38224676199&a=228966095&r=2961
2-From BT's TNX/TLT charts (657/9105/9106)----
---TNX Weekly looks like may be at mid channel turning point--
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=W&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&i=p99105553805&a=70200467&r=8994
---TLT Daily at a decision point--
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT&p=D&yr=10&mn=1&dy=0&i=p12150857210&a=207225534&r=6382
3-I also have USD dollar tagging along bottom of 10 day trend line. I have approx 74.75 as bottom of 10 day trend on .DXY
4-At any rate, we may be setting up later today/tomorrow for short term pull back. Not sure, just wanted to call to folks attention to keep an eye on. Mike
"Greeks took their medicine-yes..."
That news in some form or another was out earlier today, but it appears later in day that Greek PM Papandreou guaranteed to EU, that he had the votes to pass the austerity bill (even though he has one in his party committed to voting against it).
The actual vote is Tuesday...so expecting some interesting chop in front of that vote.
Yes I know that is a fundamental input...but given the low market volume it looks in the short term that markets are a bit more driven these days by these "incremental" news events...
Today was a good case to say that we can absorb the worst and go higher...but intraday folks are using these events as I see it to drive the markets up and down wildly at times (within a range..) based on incremental news reports (and low vol/investor sentiment).
So just saying that I expect that to continue despite the nice technical reversal candle we printed today. That is -- I expect more wild chop here at times, but you got to like the reversal signals we had today to promote the long side trade.
My guess is that early next week we will see some wild chop in front of the Tuesday vote by Greece parliament.
On other hand, it seems to me market has factored this in, expects the current gov't to prevail, so likely good to go here on long side...which is what I did after we had that last wild swing down today.
But just would keep an eye on this and whether the the spreads start to widen unexpectedly at times on other countries bonds/rates in coming days (Spain in particular). Also, USD/Euro action will be a key to watch. Again, I think we pop, these are just a few things to keep one eye on. Also, not comfortable at the moment with looks like a bear flag on Copper.
MA 89 144 233 -- Generic -- Nice call.
Curious to hear your thinking as we printed a very nice reversal candle just under the 144 ema. To me this looks consistent with areas many of us are looking at 1298-1300, 1315, perhaps 1345 if we can break out aggressively from these lower levels in coming days.
At any rate, a very interesting set of Moving Avgs you use. I've been tracking it along with charts from BT, Jerry, BIG, Trend1, etc.
Note - I traded TZA on the intraday pullbacks and then got into TYH a bit later (3x long on Tech). Couldn't quite make up mind as to whether to get into FAS, TNA, SOXL, TYH intraday -- but finally settled on the later given how well the Qs were acting intraday (BIG swayed me a bit here I must admit based on his thinking on the early the "Generals" were having, which I agreed with. So seemed like the more profitable short to mid term trade. Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$SPX,uu[1080,920]dacaynay[d20100301,20121221][pb89%21b144%21b233][iub13]
On the chart here on the USD -- thinking....we do get a fair amount of false starts at times but overall the trend to me looks like we are bottoming and going up in mid term.
However...at the moment it looks like USD can't get over and hold $76 as yet. But it looks like it building some 'cause' or momentum to go higher despite that observation.
So... looking at this and various other measures -- I'm very concerned that at some point the move we are seeing may take those upside resistance points out (based on the moves I'm seeing in treasuries and currencies -- which are showing a lack of confidence as I see it -- but acknowledged its hard to make a call here....).
So even though we continue to shoot down the possibility of USD taking out $76 and then $77...in a lot of our recent fundamental & technical analysis...just thinking that the the US Dollar is buiding a base here that we should be respectful of.
Just thinking it is a bit of a threat (in the very short term) If/when that occurs, that will be hard on the markets.
For now at least I'm thinking a temp blip up, but not overly confident in some of the divergences I'm seeing that point to mixed if not down trading in the short to mid term based on certain moves in currencies & treasuries (so just wanted to note my concerns here). Mike.
Accumulations, sorry for being at crosshairs there -- That is, I was under the impression as well that most of us felt that we shouldn't be overly bearish here since we are testing and retesting support in the 1257-1265 area. I was only trading the short term probability here (and also trading the idea that I'm not quite convinced as yet that we will trend up nicely without a tad more difficulty -- so in short term just taking advantage of a short term trend down). So from my view there is a good possibility I think that we test lower (but not very far down -- say 1250/1230). That said, there is more risk to upside at the moment than to the downside from my perspective... I guess I'm just more in the camp where I think most of these upside moves will be somewhat short lived until we get into the next few weeks of earnings & other events (and that we are more likely to chop a bit wildly to both sides at times -- so looking to take advantage of those moves rather than looking for a big break to upside or downside). Mike
Accumulations, got a nice uptick in after hours on TZA to $38.86 (I bought a buck or so lower) so went ahead and took the added profit. Thx again, will re-visit the TNA/TZA or EDC/EDZ trade later tomorrow or Friday based on the action I see (which I'm tending to think will blip up some on IWM/TNA first before pulling back again, but a bit of a crap shoot here so that is why I went ahead and took profits...). Mike
Accumulations, agree on both counts, but regardless, made a decision to keep my short on IWM (i.e., TZA) since in this market I see this as the low hanging fruit in the very short term (so likely a lower risk trade if I get it wrong). So,normally I'm looking to play both sides but in very short to mid term looking to take advantage of volatility to downside. If I get it wrong here okay, but really do appreciate your follow-up admonition here, much thx, Mike.
Accumulations, I shorted (with TZA) earlier, and perhaps should have taken the profits at the close (or perhaps in pre-market or early morning). The technicals to me more support the position you took. Will be interesting to watch tomorrow. If we have a decent run to long side would consider taking some TNA off of table tomorrow afternoon or by mid day Friday. Mike
Big, thx on the heads up on China PMI data....been out of the loop for the last few days or more.....
Today, I shorted the market on what Bernanke said versus what the market wanted...which was a much more hawkish set of comments (than they got). But I may need to get out in pre-market depending on action is overnight or in the early morning in US markets.
That said, the technicals to me say much of what I'm seeing on the more negative fundamental aspects in the market are really baked in to this point.
So in my view it won't take much to get a modest to significant pop to upside.
However, I'm looking at a lot of potentially more negative factors as we get into the 2nd week of July (US Jobs report, & its after a generally positive Holiday weekend, trading volume is haphazard, etc).
I tend to agree the longer term trend is up when looking at Autos, Auto repairs, and other overlooked Sectors that are turning nicely here. Points to the idea that we are seeing "Sector Rotation" rather than a return to more negative/bearish markets
The short to mid term market is much more questionable to me...especially the next few weeks or so in this low volume 'vacation season'. Mike
Bernanke Press Conf-- Basically seemed overall hawkish to me. I sensed that traders on the floor that get media time wanted to see more hawkish statements (like they got), but the larger investment community wanted a more dovish posture if they were going to re-step in a significant way. Tend to think that will make our more optimistic moves in market to hold very long and that we may look to test some previous support levels before getting a good attack on upside resistance. Regardless, that 1310-20 area not too far away so we could see a pull back initially, and then later attack of that level. That said, I'm more bullish longer term, just think it will be choppy here no matter what in short to mid term. Friday is Russell rebalancing I think...usually market attempts to trend up into that and then sell some into that rebalancing. Mike
BT--Really nice call here.
Recently....My and I wife screwed up on how her 401k works (e.g., what is the password we need to use, etc...)
So finally figuring all this out I decided to sell my wife's 401k but thinking I should reinvest it within a couple of days for a short term move up. Which to me seems consistent with what many folks are saying on this board (e.g., we need to bounce here at least for a short term bounce, but just not sure exactly when that nice bounce will occur..and for how long).
I'm thinking in the early to mid week that follows, then get out again as we get into early to mid July.
I just think its a tough market here to call for the Summer season, since the down side seems prevalent( and the downside is often tougher to call or get right..).
So thinking I will recover some of the gains we lost on the Jan to June to downtrend if I make a short term investment here...but also thinking this downtrend ain't over so should be very careful on any long positions for more than 1-2 weeks... Mike
BT: This is an unfortunate aspect of the fact that I worked for homeland security for a few years before retiring ...but its a great story on the problems the UK has with its form of government -- but of course very much appears to be an urban hoax. Which of course when you receive an email on this type of story ..there is a 3 sigma chance that its just someone trying to put a point of view across rather than relaying a fact you can rely on.
I still stay we we test lower sooner rather than later, say 1250-53, or even 1230-35. But really like this chart since its shows we are at a point that could retest those lows now or actually go up to take out 1290-1300 first. I've pointed to this this low 1250-55 area as test areas as bounce areas (but at same time I've mentioned that I think we actually will test below that in coming days/weeks.
Just my take here, but I think short term here we have a potential to bust down early next week, but tend to agree with BT, & "Where is my orange" and others that from a support, and a time period point of view, that are we are very, very, near to a nice bounce up.
Is it counter trend? Likely, but it likely will be a great bounce when it occurs... I'm thinking not Monday, but likely early to midweek next week.
Good luck and as always I like that the folks put out there analysis for us to argue 'for and against.' It makes us all better. Mike
Beautiful chart. Of course based on earlier comments I made i agree with your summary ( I see lower before higher), but really like the aspect that folks put their analysis on the line My creed in all this is that is not about getting particular calls right (even though that may help my ego...) but for us all to make money. So greatly appreciate these inputs...put it on the line and between all of us we will get the actual trade and market movement correct (or whether its safer to step aside cause we are in too much disagreement...which sometimes a tell in its own right).. Mike