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Some thoughts: Year over year growth remains strong, but the Qtr over Qtr growth SWHC has been enjoying slipped this Qtr. This combined with a net gain of ~$4.7M in Q2 related to discontinued operations is likely the source of the sell pressure on Friday. A deeper look at SWHC’s fundamentals still indicates a good turn around play with relatively easy comparisons for Q3 (Qtr ending 31 Jan). It is time to start monitoring closely the Qtr over Qtr results to ensure SWHC continues their winning ways. The debt balance is coming down nicely and it appears they are focusing on the core business. IMO, any sustained growth over the next couple Qtrs, even if significantly below the growth we have seen the last 3 Qtrs, should push the stock higher from current levels (below 10). Technically the 100 Day MA is holding, if it fails we would likely see a dip down to the 8.60 to 9 range. Near term I’m looking for a bounce that will likely fail to get to 11 and then some basing between 10 and 11 until we see the next Qtr results. I intend to not get greedy on any bounce and wait and see what the following price action looks like. IMO, if SWHC can continue to show any growth at all, a buy opportunity between the 200 day MA and 9 should yield a profitable trade. GLTA!
Sellers sold right through 9.90. I'm going to quit watching. I'm in and intend to hold for another run at 11. GLTA!
Still have some selling out there, but the bids are building around 9.90. Would love to see it close solidly above 10.
Agree, 17 looks to be holding. GLTA!
Looks like low around 9.79 is holding and vol is still good. Selling may be over an buyers stepping in. At least I hope.
I don't think it's short selling. I think we are looking at profit taking from some big money that probably has 100% or more in profit. Potential tax increase after the first of the year that makes taking profit now lucrative. I'm banking we make another run at 11 before the year is out.
Thank you, but as usual I'm back in to early. Just bought another 1000 at 9.80; couldn't resist
Just bought back the rest of the shares at 10.10; now I'm ready see this go back to 11+. GLTA!
Not sure of the game behind the dynamics, but I sold at 10.90 after it fell below 11. Bought 1/2 back at 10.10 and getting ready to fill the other 1/2 on the next dip toward 10. It's a wild ride, but pretty easy to stay on the right side of the trade.
GLTY!
Fingers crossed we take out a 11 tomorrow with ease. GLTA!
Tend to agree. IMO, we see another dip to 9 area(or a little lower) before end of year, then maybe a another run at 10 ahead of earnings. The solid break above 10 will likely come when we get visibility on div increase and/or share buy backs. Maybe on the Jan report, but more likely going in to Q1. GLTA!
Nice to see Alcoa bucking the market trend today. Signs of China growth returning are obviously helping. Looking for AA to outperform the market in the near-term. GLTA!
Jett and xero90,
I wanted to thank you both. I appreciate your fundamental and technical opinions. My startegy involves both. I build a bull-pen of stocks based on fundamentals and macro trends, then I use technicals for entry and exit. Most of the stocks in my bull-pen I intend to work over a year+ time frame. Thanks again!
Despite the video being rough, I was impressed with how quick and easy a scenario could be modified/edited. Thanks for sharing.
I think your right. I seem to recall a 150K+ for the 300 system. Hopefully the lower prices lead to more system sales. IMO, once Virtra can get a few hundred systems deployed, they will begin to see a very nice reoccurring business with the high margin upgrade and warranty business. Also, while the base system price is low, the high margin add-ons can boost the total contract substantially.
Schneid,
The following link is the 2013 GSA catalog. The MIL 300 is $127K and the LE 300 is $100K. They have also added a few products since the last time I looked at the GSA schedule. GLTY!
https://www.gsaadvantage.gov/ref_text/GS02F0214P/0K5M0L.2E2D8I_GS-02F-0214P_GSATEXTFILE.PDF
Looks like you called it again. Wish I would have added at 17 in the morning following that strong finish. GLTY!
I think we will see another test of 11 before earnings. GLTA!
I'm targeting below 9.15 which means the 50 day MA around 9.33 has to fail. If that fails I think we will see high 8s to 9.15 range. If market re-tests DOW between 12500 and 12600, we will probably get that Sep gap on BAC to fill, and in my opinion, that flush out will set up a breakout on the next run to 10. GLTY!
Looking to add a little if market weakness can drive this solidly below 17. Love to get a few more shares around 16.50 to 16.75. GLTA!
Locked down profits and will buy back on the gap fill. GLTA!
IMO, take the profit and buy the gap fill. GLTY!
Good chart Conix. That RSI is what has my interest!
Today's price action is good, but need more vol. Hopefully the word gets out.
Wishing I would have seen your post ahead of yesterday's purchase. May have made reconsider. Looks like we are heading to 9 and maybe a beeline to the 50 day MA as you predicted. I will add if support at 9 fails. GLTY!
Hoping you called it. Just added my last 1/3 at 16.55. GLTA!
Good post! I won't be a pig and have stay nimble until the market is ready to turn. IMO, SWHC will test resistance between 10.14 and 10.20; if it fails there, I will lock down profit. If it gets through resistance, I think we will test the highs one more time. Remain cautious, but optimistic the filled gap will generate some upward movement.
I think the market could turn at this level. If not, I will be buying large at 8.75 and holding some back in case the gap from early Sep fills around 8.35. I don't see BAC trading below that level.
AA broke support at 8.27. Next support level is 8.02, but we may not get there. I think the market may be ready for a couple of up days. If I hadn't bought earlier today at a higher price, I'd be buying at 8.12.
Focus on the bright side; IMO there is not much downside left at these levels. China's economy is starting to turn and our's will heat up more. Alcoa will benefit in a stronger economy. GLTY!
Back in on the gap fill at 9.65. Should be able to take out 11 on next run. Just need the market to turn now. GLTA!
Gotta fill at 9.06. You have to be willing to hold at this price. It's possible 12,600 on DOW won't hold and if that is the case, next support level is 12,500 then all the way down to 12,100.
I'm looking for the DOW to catch a lift at 12,600, but it could go lower.
You gotta know my answer. I'm obviously buying. I wouldn't sell here. Still some downside risk, but we will see a Santa rally!
And I would sell them if I actually paid that price. Sorry, should have been 8.23
In with 2nd third of position at 3.23. Looking for DOW to get some support at 12,600. GLTA!
I may be a bit early, but the Jan 15 $5 leaps are getting attractive. Went ahead and pulled the trigger at 4.65, and holding some dry powder. GLTA!
So much for the sustained revenue growth I hoping for, plus the gross margins slipped. Would love to see a breakdown on what they are spending the money on, and get some transparency on what has been booked, but not delivered. My patience is waning
Fingers crossed that we see $2.4M+ in revenue for Q3. That will keep the year over year 17-18% revenue growth trend intact. Also, hoping that the 1.25M Aug revenue record they gave us visibility on was telling that Q3 was a good quarter. If Virtra can hold on to the 17-18% year over year growth rate with current margins, it makes VTSI worth .14 to .21 in 2013 using a 10 to 15 PE. We just need the visibility which should come with the 2nd year of audited financials. GLTA!
That would be nice. I do believe they have something new in the works, and I think there is a strategy plan to drive the share price higher, and they aren't rushin it. IMO, once they have the 2nd year of audited financials, they will start driving the price up, if not before.