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Speculative Bank Play - TNCC
Introduction
The Charts
Standard daily view:
Closeup of daily chart displaying possible Eve and Eve double bottom:
Weekly chart:
Due diligence:
http://www.bizjournals.com/profiles/company/tn/franklin/tennessee_commerce_bank/3230139/
Intraday scorecard for today
Assumng an equal distribution of the stocks I picked last Friday, here is how we're doing today. Only JSDA went down, which is not surprising right at resistance. Some others gave 0%. GERS, ENER, AMOK, FTWR and REVU are the big gainers.
cbis 16.88 %
jsda -7.06
ener 39.86
txmc 11.11
mcet 0.00
idoid 0.00
mdhi 0.00
gers 26.32
mseh 3.60
amok 40.00
ftwr 40.99
revu 20.00
hsol 4.89
rddy 6.52
18.46 % total daily gain
Interesting technical events this week
Oh – those flatliners can drive you nuts. You know; the .0001 stocks that trade on ridiculously high volume the price won't budge until something happens to set it motion. GERS recently had a reverse split which brought the stock back to life. It went up, it went down, and now it's going up again. (See also IDOID for similar gyrations after a flatline and reverse split.) Volume could be higher, but worth watching. The chart:
For a different perspective, the GERS candleglance chart looks real nice:
MSEH – breakout and a possible pullback in the making:
AMOK carved through the 50 day MA like a hot knife through butter, now testing resistance at the 200 day MA. Chances are pretty good that there will be a pullback:
FTWR dropped precipitously, forming an apparent island bottom. Up over 74 percent today. I think it may be trying to tell us something:
REVU - Princeton Review saw approximately 4,158,400 shares change hands - a 1,549.9 percent increase over its 65-day average volume. REVU rose $.02, or 22.0 percent to $0.11 today. This may be a prelude to some genuine bottom building. Time will tell:
HSOL broke above a critical moving average this week. Looks like the 200 day MA may be the next target. Watching and waiting for it to set up for that shot.
Finally, let's all give a warm welcome to RDDY, which is new to the Pinkies. It used to trade under the ticker FRZ, and it used to be a high priced stock. Here's the weekly chart. (The others are all daily.) These are not split adjusted prices:
Lots of technical events this week
CBIS has given quite the performance. Here is how the weekly chart looks:
The rest are all daily charts.
JSDA is testing resistance at the 200 day MA after a breakout over the 50 day MA on higher volume than usual. Daily chart:
ENER is providing a similar performance:
TXMC looks as if it may be forming a bull flag on the daily. Certainly bears close scrutiny:
MCET penetrated MA 200 where it found resistance, and it has since graciously pulled back to test support at MA 50:
IDOID finally broke out of its .0001 flatline after a reverse split. It then broke down, reversed and pulled back up and over the break point. Now up on higher than usual volume, and possibly pulling back to test a potential moving average crossover.
MDHI is now in an apparent pullback:
More to come as time permits. Happy hunting!
> NLST...pulled back a little this morning . . .
Now, compare this chart of NLST
to the two contained in this message:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=70328842#
Coincidence?
> AMR...any thoughts on this one...
It begins trading today (1.5.12) under the sysmbol AAMRQ on the OTC. Note the words of caution: "AMR cannot predict what the ultimate value of any of its securities may be, and it remains too early to determine whether holders of any such securities will receive any distribution in the Chapter 11 reorganization. It should be noted that in most Chapter 11 cases holders of equity securities receive little or no recovery of value from their investment. As a result, AMR urges investors to exercise appropriate caution with respect to any existing or future investments in AMR's securities."
Pre-market, it looks like it has formed a promising island / double bottom. But it is possible that the price will plummet once the change is made. This may (or may not) present some good short-term swing trades.
Clearly this is an industry in turmoil. Longs should look for quick bounces at levels of support and possible short-covering rallies. Longer term investments would be premature.
See generally also:
AMR - American Airlines faces turbulent ride - Oct 4, 2011
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67686070
A fire in the sky - Oct 4, 2011
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67674571
(In which I charted competitors LUV, DAL, JBLU, UAL and PNCL).
FAA - The Airlines ETF - Oct 4, 2001
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67685262
FAA (the remaining airlines ETF) has twice tested support on MA 50 (daily) and failed. The time to play it would be when strong support is established above this level, and when it looks like it is setting up for a mad dash to test resistence at MA 200. Expect it to hit resistance and bounce back down before it actually penetrates and find support above MA 200. This may take weeks or months of time.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?faa
Confucious say: "Wise man buys support, and sells resistance."
> Shank SI_OR. Any idea where I might bid for some shares?
Last October would be a good time.
"Still prefer SIOR over FOFU" - Oct 2, 2010 - $0.0062
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67614819
"SIOR - Revisited" - Nov 8, 2010 - $0.006
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68791613
Look at her run today! $0.024
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?sior
It is all in watching the setups as they play out on the charts, and going with the probabilities.
MDHI - Pullback may be ahead.
Miss the big move in MDHI? Don't feel bad; so did I, because of the Christmas rush. Sure enough, I spotted the setup last week, but was too busy to pull the pin.
Not to worry, though - what goes up, must come down. That is to say, with the RSI topping out, it's now overbought and due for a correction.
ITKH & other setups on volume.
As of 12:59, ITKH is second on the list of volume spikes at Stockcharts.com. VPER is at the top of the list, and it seems to be setting up nicely. SIOR is in fourth place, and looking like it wants to give us a blue sky breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=I.Y|TVDL[T.T_EQ_S]![T.E_EQ_P]![AS0,20,TV_GT_40000]![TV0_GT_AS1,20,TV*4]![TC0_GT_TC1]
Ten Brands That Will Disappear In 2012
A thought provoking article from 24/7 Wall Street.
http://247wallst.com/2011/06/22/247-wall-st-ten-brands-that-will-disappear-in-2012/
Chart Magic: PEIX & BIOF compared
It has been said that classic chart patterns have repeated themselves over and over again throughout the centuries. Indeed, it has been noted that if one goes back some centuries to the Chinese culture, and examines rice trading charts, these classic chart patterns are to be found.
Let us examine this theory by comparing the charts of two stocks in the same sector. Bear in mind that stocks in a particular sector often move in tandem as you look at these.
PEIX today
BIOF today
Tell me that there isn't a certain kind of magic and mystery to be unraveled in the charts!
ITKH & ATIG breakouts compared.
Always be cautious with breakouts like this. ATIG gave a similar performance on December 23. (I marked it up as a watch list item for posting here, but did not have the time to post it because of the holiday fanfare).
Compare my 23rd markup of ATIG to today's chart of ITKH. Compare also the standard Gallery views. The similarities are striking.
The bottom line is that both are worth watching, however it is best to wait a few days for a pullback and a test of support at MA 200 on the daily, and at MA 40 on the weekly chart to be sure the breakout is genuine, rather than caused by a temporary short squeeze, or smart money jacking up the price in order to dump shares.
ITKH today
ATIG on 23rd
Gallery views
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?itkh
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?atig
BLAP -- possible breakout in the making
It says here: “Blast Applications Inc. is a premier creator and developer of applications for iPhone®, Twitter® Facebook®, BlackBerry and Nokia, allowing users to have more fun, be productive and make social media sites easier to use and more intuitive than before. Blast Applications has a unique opportunity to monetize the web surfer's dedication to social media sites through direct advertising programs tied to the Company's tools, applications and websites. For more information please visit www.blastapplications.com.”
Now, let's see if we can find an opportunity to monetize the traders' dedication as well.
BLAP has risen above a critical moving average – always a nice thing. There are two setups on the chart which I believe may serve to cross-confirm one another in terms of providing an entry point.
Price has penetrated trendline resistance, however the setup may also be conceptualized in terms of a break above horizontal resistance providing a blue sky breakout. There is also a rectangle base in evidence, out of which a break on high volume would confirm a blue sky breakout.
Here is the marked up weekly chart from Stockcharts.com.
LBAS not looking too strong on weekly chart.
Here is my take on it; watch it and wait. It may be forming a high altitude double bottom, and the MACD seems poised to move in the right direction. Clearly, the setups seem to be playing out on the weekly chart with this particular security.
While indicators may be useful, this is ultimately a classic battle between support and resistance.
Just in time for the holidays
A couple years ago, I invested in a Dell monitor that pivots between landscape and portrait mode. I can't tell you what a joy it is to see the entire chart - indicators and all - without having to scroll up and down.
You can also open multiple windows; say Stockcharts on the upper half, Bloomberg, Yahoo! Finance, a 60 minute chart, and a level 2 screen on the bottom half. And, you can see it all without straining.
I also use a template that enables me to readily view dozens of items on my watch list. This is a big step above the candleglance feature offered by Stockcharts. Imagine dozens of mini charts like this one all on one template.
From a technological standpoint, what is available to us as traders today would have been available only to the brokerages and professional traders of yesteryear. I have yet to find the need to upgrade to a multi-core processor. It's all in last year's hotshot video cards (at big discounts) and multiple monitors in array. Guess what I ordered for Christmas?
GNTA may (finally) have hit bottom
It is heartbreaking to watch a stock continue to tumble downward for months – even years – on end. GNTA has been among them. Some reverse splits along the the way may have lowered the float, but they did nothing to elevate the price.
Apparently the company received some promising results about a recent clinical trial, the details of which are at http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gnta&ql=1
First, a look at the daily:
Now let's zoom in on the 60 minute chart for a closer look at what's going on.
Dynamic trio in action:
Use your favorite time-frames and indicators. This one may be worth a few good quick flips.
YRCW - reverse stock split planned.
A service called The Bedford Report explains in a release issued on Friday: “Even one of trucking's most hard hit publically traded companies is showing signs of life. YRC Worldwide's third quarter revenue hit nearly $1.3 billion, up 12.3 percent from a year ago. The company said it also was shipping more freight than a year ago. Once again YRC Worldwide is facing a delisting threat from NASDAQ, since the stock price fell significantly below $1. Because of this, YRCW will ask for its shareholders' approval for a reverse stock split in the annual general meeting of November 30, 2011. The proposed reverse stock split is expected to be completed by December 15, 2011.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Strengthening-Trucking-Sector-iw-2326856984.html?x=0
This reverse split may well serve to keep the stock off the Pink Sheets – at least for a while. As for the time frame involved in watching for possible buy signals, it may now be several months until they appear. The reason for this is that investors often lose confidence in a stock that has had a reverse split, and the price often continues to plummet. Here is the weekly chart with only two relevant notations:
When watching a stock, I also like to watch the related sector. In this case, the Dow Jones Transportation Average works well enough. Note the recent double top against resistance at the 200 day MA, and the breakdown through support at the 50:
Note also that what once was support on the weekly chart has now become resistance for the transports at the 40 week moving average. I am anticipating support at around the $4,000 level, as displayed on the chart:
The transportation industry is certainly one worth watching over the longer term. This would include trucking, international water shipping, and the airlines.
Happy Thanksgiving for LNKD, GRPN, NFLX shorts.
On November 15, our gracious host noted that an early LinkedIn investor dumped a $275 million stake in LinkedIn. According to an article in CNN Money, private equity firm Bain Capital, one of the early investors in the social network, announced that it had sold its entire stake in the company.
But wait – it gets even better.
LinkedIn Chief Executive Jeff Weiner sold about 10% of his holdings for nearly $26 million last Wednesday, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Director David Sze sold 1,404,798 shares at $68.94 per share for a grand total of $96,846,774; company officer Kent Buller sold 11,500 shares for a total of $792,810; officer Dipchand Nishar sold 94,500 shares for a total of $6,514,830; officer David Henke sold 77,000 shares priced at $68.94 for a total of $5,308,380; while officer Steven Sordello sold $6,772,114 worth of shares. Beneficial owner Deer VI & Co. sold 1,250,000 shares for a cool $86,175,000, while Greylock, Ltd., sold 1,230,050 for a whopping $84,799,647.
It must have been a Happy Thanksgiving, indeed, for LinkedIn executives and owners.
Even as company executives went laughing to the bank on Friday, the Wall Street Journal blared an headline that in and of itself told the story: “LinkedIn Shares Sag as Insiders Sell.”
All of this certainly serves to inspire confidence; that is to say, confidence in this bloated stock as another shorting opportunity that can't be missed. The chart:
Meanwhile, a Forbes commentator noted in a headline posted yesterday that: “It's A Black Friday Internet Stock Sell-A-Thon!”
Eric Savitz explained that “The stock has been under pressure in recent sessions from the expiration of its insider lock-up agreement, freeing up many more shares for public sale. LNKD today is off $2.96, or 4.5%, to $63.04. The stock is down 12% for the week, and has lost a third of its value since October 28.”
As for Groupon – the online coupon purveyor - Savitz explains: “The sell-off continues. The stock is off 52 cents, or 3.1%, to $16.44. The stock is down 37% for the week to date, and is now well below its IPO price of $20.” According to Stockcharts.com, GRPN was down 36.04% this past week.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=grpn
As for Netflix – the company that everyone seemingly loves to hate – Savitz noted: “The stock that never stops going down: the video site’s shares are down $4.94, or 7.2%, to $63.56; Netflix shares have hit a new 52-week low, the stock is off 79% from its 52-week peak.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/11/25/its-a-black-friday-internet-stock-sell-a-thon/?partner=yahootix
Look at that nosedive!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=nflx
THE BIG PICTURE
According to Barchart.com, the internet commerce sector on the whole has not fared too well over the course of the last 52 weeks.
http://barchart.com/stocks/sectors/-INCM
My pick for the next major market correction in this particular sector? Priceline.com (PCLN) which closed at $459.18 on Black Friday. PCLN has formed an apparent quadruple top, strongly suggesting that the market simply will not push it any higher.
Don't ask for extra cheese!
Bon Appétit, everyone!
Photo credit: http://hburgrestaurantcrawl.blogspot.com/
Re: Lots of cheese
Hope this one serves to stimulate some appetites this Thanksgiving Day. Best regards to all!
Photo credit goes out to: http://lunchoclock.blogspot.com/2010/01/francos-pizza-harrisonburg-va.html
CSRH - Consorteum Holdings - Pink
Says here: “Consorteum Holdings, Inc. provides systems integration services in the financial services, payment, and transaction processing industries primarily in Canada. The company offers systems integration of electronic transaction processing solutions to public and private sector companies, including First Nations of Canada, crew members on yachts and similar vessels provided by third parties under a rental arrangement, golf clubs, owners, and participating courses.”
8-K forms detail very recent acquisitions. See Yahoo for details:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=csrh&ql=1
Their web site not only works (always a good sign) but also makes some cool noises:
http://www.consorteum.com/
Now, down to business. Up 41.41% on Friday. While the daily chart still looks a little mushy, it's the weekly that intrigues me. I've marked up the relevant details.
Gallery:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?CSRH
One note of caution. Renko daily chart shows it as becoming overbought, so there may be a pullback in the making.
Time to Buy? Let History Be Your Guide
Fascinating interview with Jeff Hirsch, editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac, on Yahoo! (Let it run, and other Breakout interviews will follow. Great Sunday morning TV).
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/time-buy-let-history-guide-133607363.html
ODP - Office Depot
Let's move away from the Pinkies this weekend and see what may be happening elsewhere.
From a recent press release: “Celebrating 25 years as a leading global provider of office supplies and services, Office Depot is Taking Care of Business for millions of customers around the globe. For the local corner store as well as Fortune 500 companies, Office Depot provides supplies and services to its customers through 1,656 worldwide retail stores, a dedicated sales force, top-rated catalogs and global e-commerce operations. Office Depot has annual sales of approximately $11.6 billion, and employs about 40,000 associates around the world. The Company provides more office supplies and services to more customers in more countries than any other company, and currently sells to customers directly or through affiliates in 58 countries.”
This is not a Pinkie, it trades on the venerable NYSE, and it closed at a mere $2.52 on Friday. To the extent that you may want to characterize anything that trades below $5.00 as a penny stock (as some do) here is one with a quarter century of longevity.
Newswise:
There have been recent insider purchases:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=ODP+Insider+Transactions
The company has made a deal with HP to make the 32 GB HP TouchPad be available for $149.99 when purchased in-store with any HP PC.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/HP-TouchPad-Tablets-Re-Emerge-bw-3650702975.html?x=0&l=1
Here is a mini-chart, which shows the 20 day MA rising above the 50. Target on the daily is resistance at MA 200, estimated to be in the range of about $3.50. A similar target may be said to exist on the weekly chart at the 40 week MA. Watch these intersections and the RSI closely, and you may be able to score $1.00 a share over the short term on a stock that likely won't “go Q” on you overnight.
Here is the link to the standard Stockcharts gallery view:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?odp
Berkshire Hathaway 2/2
There is an interesting article that just came out today on MoneyShow.com that explains: "Today, Berkshire Hathaway shares are trading at around 67 cents on the dollar. Meaning that patient investors are likely to see the share price rise to the intrinsic value at some time in the future."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/buffetts-move-makes-perfect-sense/article2231778/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2231778
Berkshire Hathaway
For those who think that Buffet can do no wrong, there is the alternative of BRK/B which mirrors the performance of the A series stock. It closed at a relatively modest $75.99 today.
There is a truly fascinating history of this company in the form of letters to shareholders from Warren Buffet dating all the way back to 1977.
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
SPKL – Spicy Pickle Sandwich Company
Here is one that I've been watching for a couple of years. Finally, it's doing something to make it worthy of watching it daily. Billings Montana location opened Nov. 8th, and company has development plans for five new stores in Nevada, and they are also reaching into Canada. For details see: http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AsJuUu4s_Hd14hYx0nFOiUvxVax_;_ylu=X3oDMTFjMTI5dTZrBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDeWZpU3ltYm9sTG9va3VwUmVzdWx0cwRzbGsDc3BrbHBr?s=SPKL.PK
Yahoo! Says: “Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc. franchises and operates Spicy Pickle and BG Urban Cafe restaurants in the United States and Canada. The Spicy Pickle restaurants are fast casual sandwich restaurants, which specializes in panini, submarine-style sandwiches, pizzetti, soups, and salads; and BG Urban Cafe restaurants specializes in fast casual dining offering specialty coffee, breakfast pastry and sandwiches, salads, soups, lunch and dinner oven baked entrees, sandwiches, wraps, and dessert items. As of December 31, 2010, it had 28 franchised Spicy Pickle restaurants and 6 company-owned Spicy Pickle restaurants located in 10 states in the United States; and 16 franchised BG Urban Cafe restaurants situated in the metropolitan Vancouver area in British Columbia, Canada. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.”
Company home page: http://www.spicypickle.com/index.html
Right now, the bulls and the bears are playing the game of moving average ping pong, possibly in the process etching out what may evolve into a full blown rectangle. Consistent closes above MA 50, with the occasional close above MA 200 make for a fascinating game. Potential bulls should wait for a breakout on high volume.
SSOL – Sunvalley Solar, Inc.
Sunvalley Solar is up on news of multiple contracts fro installations for cities in California, including Valencia, Industry, and Long Beech. See Yahoo! for the details: http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=Ai0OURd9C6aE_lNTiFXQk13xVax_;_ylu=X3oDMTFjMDkxYzZiBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDeWZpU3ltYm9sTG9va3VwUmVzdWx0cwRzbGsDc3NvbHBr?s=SSOL.PK
Now, let's get down to business. SSOL has made a bold move above MA 50 on the daily chart, on volume of 10,349,234 shares. RSI and MACD are looking bullish. Entry may be premature, as the move is news-inspired. Suggest keeping it on the radar as it walks the proverbial tightrope.
> PEIX...didn't give us much of chance to consolidate and buy at .55 there!
But it did as it should. It filled that gap. Sometimes when I am determined to grab something like this, and know I'll be away, I'll put in a standing order with a limit between the center and the low of the gap. $0.56 - $0.57 would almost certainly have resulted in a fill. Here's how it played out on the 60 minute chart.
EEGC – Interpreting geometry
It has been said that one trader's triangle is another's rising wedge. EEGC just performed a brief upside breakout, and pulled back. In other words, it formed an intraday spike. In any event, it caught my attention, and I though I'd take the occasion to demonstrate how different traders may interpret the same event in different ways.
In this case, I have marked up the chart with two blue lines, suggesting a triangular pennant formation. I have also included a green line to demonstrate how the pattern could just as easily be interpreted as a rising wedge. Call it a pennant, a wedge, or a coiled spring. A rose by any other name . . .
The chart that bears watching:
HRZL(Q)
Horizon Lines, which bills itself as “the nation's leading domestic ocean shipping company,” was delisted from the AMEX and wound up on the Over The Counter board on October 20, 2011. Note also that on October 24, 2011, the company announced that “it will discontinue its Five Star Express (FSX) trans-Pacific container shipping service between the U.S. West Coast, Guam and China.”
Welcome to the Pink Sheets, Horizon! Here is the link to the Yahoo! summary:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HRZL.PK
Here is the current chart with relevant markups. Let it ripen on the vine before picking. There is no telling at this point just how much lower it may go.
SIOR - Revisited
Poor little Superior Oil & Gas. Seems their wells aren't quite producing what they'd hoped they would. Nevertheless, the company seems determined to forge on.
A classic tug of war between the bulls and the bears has ensued since a recent breakout, now manifesting as a textbook perfect rectangle, promising to break out in one direction or the other.
How to play it? Wait for an upside breakout on high volume. If it's a big one, you may consider waiting for the inevitable pullback to support (that which is now resistance) and a subsequent bounce on volume to confirm the trend.
MRIB - Revisited
If I have ever made any valuable discoveries, it has been owing more to patient attention, than to any other talent.
Isaac Newton
MRIB now has to prove itself by holding on support at MA 50. If it finds support and bounces back into the consolidation area, we may be on on to something. Volume is low, so this is not the result of a large sell-off. Watching and waiting to see how the next few days play out.
Weird little stock (ACTN)
Weird charts, that's for sure. I can't find any bad news that would account for such a plummet. (But that is also true of many, many other stocks in this price range).
The charts:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?ACTN
I did find a fascinating scholarly article from the Frankfurt School: Working Paper Series No. 168, "Energy Service Companies
in China: The Role of Social Networks and Trust" by Genia Kostka and Kyoung Shin, June 2011.
Longhai Steel is mentioned therein, among others. Great stuff, and particularly so for anyone considering investing in a Chinese company.
http://www.frankfurt-school.de/dms/Arbeitsberichte/Arbeits168.pdf
Profit taking on PATH
I believe I'd have waited just a tad longer before taking profits. It looks like it still has room to run. (Compare generally to the setup on PEIX). Here's my take on it.
According to PATH's Renko chart, it's just getting started.
Here is the news, for those inclined to read it. I was surprised to learn that the nicotine patch is now available over-the-counter without a prescription. It does not take a great leap of faith the see approval for a similar patch to control migraines.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=path&ql=1