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Cosmos-Thanks for the syopsis! Can you elaborate on what he meant by: "Q: Clarify unit volume vs. software sales.
A: I don’t know for sure. I think half and half."
Thanks,
Svenm
Sheldon,
I'm looking forward to your interpretation of this:
BCRYPT_OPAQUE_KEY_BLOB / Export a symmetric key in a format that is specific to a single cryptographic service provider (CSP). Opaque BLOBs are not transferable and must be imported by using the same CSP that generated the BLOB.
Thanks,
Svenm
Go-Kite, AWK,Cliff, ISPRO, Thanks for the input. Agreed that MSFT's ability to coopt this area will be interesting to follow. I've always seen MSFT as Wave's most fearsome competitor. Hopefully they'll continue to shoot themselves in their feet (I'm thinking of their latest venture into anti-viral software in order to sell us fixes for their defects!) while Wave takes advantage of its 1st-mover position. I have to believe that DoD decisions are going to have a big impact on deciding this question.
The faster that Weby's dominoes start falling the better!
Svenm
ISPRO, True, but I believe the question is to what extent MSFT will leverage the TPM. So far we only know about secure startup. Hopefully it will stay that way for a few versions.
Svenm
AWK, Does that mean that BitLocker does not provide protection if the laptop is stolen while powered on? And without ETS or something else with flagged encrypted files, does the Vista OS provide protection against online hackers?
I know this is sophomoric for you but I'm still trying to figure out exactly what functions Vista is providing here.
TIA,
Svenm
AWK, Thanks for that clarification.
Svenm
Rachelise, Good point. Perhaps, however, the NTT/Wave MOU will accelerate Cisco's move in the TCG/Wave direction.
Svenm
Rachelise, From the recent PR (bolds mine):
"Wave's Embassy trusted computing technology and services solutions address a wide range of security bringing customer value to businesses and consumers today, including authentication of identity and data protection," said Hitokazu Tanabe, Senior Vice President and Senior Executive Manager, Business Solution Sector, NTT DATA. "The market for security and solutions, such as Trusted Computing, has been accelerated by the Japanese Data Protection Act. There is a growing demand for quality secure solutions in the Japan market. Our intention is to work with Wave in Japan as our preferred partner for innovative trusted computing solutions. We will discuss cooperation with the solution based on the VANADIS architecture which our company provides."
If we can take this at face value I would think that other software solutions will not be used much, if at all. In addition, we can expect new appliations by Wave to solve other security issues (e.g. Cisco is heavily involved in the VANADIS initiative with NTT. Perhaps we'll see Wave solutions to Cisco systems?)
Svenm
Weby, I'm glad we could come to a point of agreement. After five glasses of Dom Perignon in LV I'm sure we can develop many visions of killer applications for Wave Systems!
Have a good weekend!
Svenm
Weby, I don't think I'm missing your points. And I know that you've recognized the importance of authentication for lo, these many years. But so far the only thing bringing in revenue is Wave firmware in bundles that will barely pay to keep the lights on in Lee. I have no idea what visions SKS may have for the future. I do know that he and Lark have consistently represented management of trusted digital communication to be Wave's core business. We are still a long way from seeing that come to pass in a measurable (by revenues) way. I see no reason to take one's eyes off that ball. Properly accomplished, it is the only role Wave will need to play for the foreseeable future to be successful beyond one's wildest dreams. I don't see that vision as "limiting," nor do I see it as not "tomorrow."
But it's OK with me if you want to be a visionary and think about the "next great thing." I just don't feel the same need. But I'm sure we can agree to disagree. That's what reasonable people do, isn't it?
Svenm
Whitewash, With enough bandwidth all of that can be handled with trusted computing alone. What value does WXP add in addition to digital machines with secure identities?
Svenm
Weby, On those two points: 1) I can't prove a negative, that WXP has noopporunities left, but I agree with Go-Kite's post that if there are any left they are mainly niche ones.
2) With better data compression and larger bandwidth I just think that WXP will for the most part be unnecessary. Secure content/services can be handled by conventional trusted computing, i.e. Wave's core business.
Also, I disagree with you once again. You write IT'S NOT ABOUT AUTHENTICATION AND ATTESTATION. I think It's All About Authentication and Attestation!, at this point in time at least. SKS made it clear (and I think the gorillas made it clear for him) that Wave doesn't intend to tax the internet. To my mind that leaves ETS upgrades, as the backbone of the business model. To use an analogy, Wave's business is a type of utility, and if it succeeds, not that disimilar from a ConEd, for example. How enterprises use electricity is entirely up to them, and, of course, there are myriads of uses. How enterprises (and eventually consumers), use trusted computing will be up to them. Wave will have a great business just enabling those applications. Why look further right now? Wave will have its hands full for decades just doing that.
Sorry for the verbosity but you surprised me with your high volume reply!
Svenm
Whitewash, Excuse my ignorance, but why would we need WXP for content metering if the pipes are big enough to handle this real time? I don't see what WXP has to do with micropayments at all. I would think in the world of magnitudinally larger data transmission that both of these things will be a piece of cake real time (or close to it).
As a long I hope you're right, but I don't see anything to substantiate that hope, and I think management should get that message from stockholders who feel the same way.
Svenm
Rachelise, Thanks for the balanced, reasonable reply. I don't disagree with anything you say, but as a shareholder one must remember that at the present every $2 of burn equals 3 shares of dilution. My info is limited but from a long's perspective I think that costs definitely outweigh benefits here.
Nuff said from me on this subject. I couldn't help venting as it's bothered me for a long time.
Svenm
Weby, While I agree that comments on WXP (and WAVX as well) are based on hot air because of a lack of transparency I think the case with WXP is quite a bit different than WAVX. I'm not sure what "SUBSCRIBER BASED RELATIONS MANAGEMENT" is. My understanding is that Wave is trying to provide the infrastructure for trusted computing. I can envision revenue flowing from software sales, key management and attestation. Secure subscriptions have never truly been explained or articulated, other than a loose aside by management. Many asides fall into that category, none of which ever amounted to much.
I respectfully disagree with what you have to say. I think WXP's opportunity has passed by. Let it RIP.
Also, you state that "Wave simply never had Steve Job's clout or his pool of marketing history." I would rephrase that: Wave simply never had Steve Jobs! There aren't many made like that.
JMHO,
Svenm
Wavxmaster, Nice job tying together those dots!
Svenm
Snack, Dell Embassy Trust Suite by Wave Express? I assume you mean by Wave Systems? Not too big a stretch of the imagination considering Dell has already committed to all their business computers. One year to bring on the consumers might be about right, I would think.
Cheers,
Svenm
Bertha, Isn't that the "truth"?
But now with the haze long gone SKS should dump WXP. Maybe there are some positions in WAVX if there are any "very valued employees" that can make a worthwhile contribution. Big Tim made the point long ago that as the data pipes increase in diameter, WXP would decrease in value. This was obvious as the only real rationale for that company is constricted pipes, hence the need to send valuable content when internet traffic slows down (like in the middle of the night). That's becoming less and less of an issue and now with the telecoms roaring back to challenge cable and satellite it will be less still. Technologies to increase data transmission by magnitudes are within sight. The WXP vision is clearly passe'. I'm not sure what SKS spends on it but I'm sure he realizes this as well. I agree with Go-Kite, this is just a sheltered workshop for lil' bro'. Shareholders shouldn't pay for that.
JMHO,
Svenm
Zen, I don't think so. If you read the next paragraph after the one you italicized from the Gartner site:
While some of these capabilities are already available through third parties (for example, drive encryption products), the function in the MUI language pack cannot be duplicated. Companies that purchased MUI as a separate offering will now have to buy SA or create a Windows image for each language, increasing deployment complexity and cost. Companies should leverage our cost model to understand costs and savings with various imaging scenarios.
it is only to be able to use the Microsoft language pack that it is necessary to purchase the Enterprise edition. For large corporations probably a necessity. For smaller businesses, maybe not.
Svenm
Awk, I don't know what you mean by "new" but I'm pretty sure I saw that last week sometime.
Svenm
Guvna, Hopefully it won't be an option for long with this going on and due to be finalized Q2 06: Wave Systems and NTT DATA Sign Alliance MOU for
Embassy® Technology and Services in Japan
Svenm
The Army Contract Consolidated Buy (CB2) Spring purchase period has begun:
Schedule of Events
Second Quarter (2Q) FY06 CB-2 Projected schedule as follows:
* February 22 - Vendor CB products and prices posted.
* February 22 thru March 31 - Customer Ordering Officers execute CB2 orders.
* March 31 - CB2 ends
Hopefully this will include a larger percentage of ETS upgrade sales!
Svenm
Ramsey,
For the lightweights I believe there are only four vendors with bids. Dell's is pending (also Lat. 620), two are selling Gateways, and Lenovo is the 4th with Thinkpads. All list TPM v.1.2.
I suggest you download Open Office a la New Wave's suggestion. It worked fine for me.
Have you given any thought to what the direct revenues may be for Wave in regard to this contract? $5B divided by one $1250 is 400M units. If half of these contain bundled ETS at 0.50/unit it would be $200M. Say a tenth of this 1st year (arithmetic spread over length of contract) would be $10M to Wave for bundling alone. Seems high. Am I missing something?
Svenm
DHamster, I had the same thought.
Svenm
Kant, Go to Raging Bull WAVXDD forum and ask CM yourself.
Svenm
Cliff, Thanks for the slide show. There's a lot of very good info in there. Did you notice that Brian Berger gave the 1st talk after the opening ceremony? Looks to me like Lenovo is a closed shop and Infineon never mentions interoperability.
Svenm
Dig, Actually, I don't think the posse piled on. Maybe a few vigilantes did though. I can't claim any direct experience with government purchase orders, but common sense and experience with Wave tell me that your approach is the prudent one in regard to either of those PR's.
Oh, and I don't think you're an idiot, either.
Svenm
Awk, Is that a one-time fee? Maintenance implies a recurring revenue situation, no?
Svenm
Barge,
Nice DD. Don't tell me you're falling for headfakes now (lol)?
Svenm
D&O, Nice post. You've made a lot of valid points. Nothing wrong with that.
Svenm
Wildman, Random thoughts re: Dell's return on TPM business with Wave: 1) I wouldn't be surprised to see Dell recapture some of their bundling costs right away by increasing their prices by 25-50 cents per pc. 2)If not, $7.5M in upgrade revenues at $10/pc is 750,000 units, less than 3% of total business sales.
Some combination thereof comprises a very reasonable venture, IMVHO. I know you, and most wavoids, know all this. I just think that we've been slogging through the desert so long that if and when we finally do see an oasis we'll probably think it's a mirage until we actually drink the water!
Cheers,
Svenm
24601, I believe it was Samsung.
Svenm
Thanks, Dig.
Svenm
Dig, I'd like to see your spreadsheet, and charts, if you have them. How about emailing them to: rmedak@cox.net
TIA,
Svenm
Mark1, FWIW, this is how Wikipedia defines PC: (Personal Computer) In contrast to the more generic definition above, PC typically refers to an x86-based desktop or laptop computer, almost all of which run under Windows. PC hardware and operating systems are primarily governed by Intel and Microsoft; however, there are numerous other strong influences. The PC represents the world's largest computer base.
I would expect this announcement to include laptops used for business. It's a moving target, but the last time I looked at the volume of business PC's (laptops and desktops) sold by Dell was somewhere between 20 and 25M/yr.
Svenm
Scorpio, Please see Post#102151. The same reasoning would have to apply to AMD. By the way, great to have you back posting on the board and all that implies for your health improvements!
Svenm
Ramsey, I agree. And I would expect that a Wave/Broadcom/NTRU agreement will be forthcoming on the CSP/TSS. Do you agree?
Svenm
Question: Am I correct in assuming Wave's bundle with Dell will include the Broadcom TPM equipped laptops? The PR says all business computers so I that's what it sounds like to me. Do we have any idea on the present # of business computers Dell sells per quarter that are TPM equipped? Just guessing at 2-3M?
Svenm
VH, Nice post! I think you're actually a vacation "lighthouse" beaming out all that radiance for wayward wavoids on foggy nights!
Svenm
CSlewis and RWK, Nice work! That all makes sense and $574K is a number that makes more sense to me. The question now is sales of which product and to whom tend to result in deferred revenue (which I have at $178 K)? Rounding off sales at $550 makes for a much better looking curve and should be much more representative of what is actually occuring.
JMHO and ICBW,
Svenm