Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
TMEHL
NOTHING is coming from Kidd - weather stink.
Stockhouse has finally trashed the Tinka board so I would be pleased to begin a discussion group here
Question
How does anyone know what the assays are going to be? The company reported 3m of 135 g/t in Feb 2010 and after a near-double to $.85, it tanked right after. I am a stubborn bull on EXSFF and look for many multiples higher in price but how on earth can anyone know how the assays will be treated by the market? I want to see some decent grade at shallower depths and the chance to advance that ore "block" in advance of the market FINALLY recognizing that the HMC model is the true monster of the Timmins camp.
This stock will trade down to the low $.30's tomorrow then launch to $.75 by end of February - the BNN videos are being distributed throughout Europe as we speak.
buy the dips; sell the rips...
The chatrooms and the newsletter followers run the stock up from $.225 to $.50 with no real news to report and you wonder why it backs off?
The market is paying $35 per ounce for juniors which puts (a company which I DON'T own) MGP.V in the $54 m market cap area based upon 1.5m ounces. EXS has .7 m ounces and is capped at $58m with a m.c. per ounce @ $100. Until EXS demonstrates a high probability of adding ounces in the near term, while I have no doubt that they will surpass the 1.5m ounce number OVER TIME, this market will gravitate toward the norm for junior developers which is (right now) around $35 per proven 43-101 compliant ounce.
I am convinced that EXS is en route to a multi-million ounce resource but until markets heal up, the big fund managers that got wasted in 2011 will stick to proven resource companies trading around the norm until drill holes convince them otherwise.
So good luck to all and let's look for continued healing in our sector.
This is no longer either a drill-hole play or a take-out play - it is a "patience" play.
If CD can continue to attract capital, then EXS will hit a point-in-time where it will be absorbed in a POOF!-type deal. All the dreamers in the world cannot make it any different.
I am accumulating stock down here with a target of $.75 by March 1.
This is not about "weakness in markets" nor "weakness in Explor"; it is about "weakness in comprehension" by those that paid too high and are now sour. Maris why don't you tell us 1. what you paid for your position and 2. whether you still hold a position. If the answer to (2) is "no", then you are posting here because you are sour. I suggest that you take your money and buy NFLX or something that doesn't involve exploration risks so that when you blow your brains out in a failed trade, you don't blame the "crooked drillers"...
Maris - it was pretty easy to see the same buyers under $.25 letting some stock fly on the spike to the mid-$.40's. Tax-loss selling was bound to take it back down into the 23rd of the month but these traders better reload before the next results are out. And that's all I will say about that.
I've know Dupont for over four years and what he has consistently stated is this: "We will develop the properties, dress them up, and then lay them off to a major(s) in need of organic reserve growth." That's the model and that is the right plan. Let the majors spend the money and take the 3-5 years to build the mine after we the shareholders get the cash/lift.
It is amazing how you buy a bunch of $.25 stock and then watch it tack on nearly 80% in a week only to shrug your shoulders and think "So what?".
The stock was cheap and I bought it on my own without anyone's help or advice just like I did four years ago at $.20 and in 2009 at $.19 and now it is moving back up. Never doubted Dupont then and haven't doubted him at $1.50 in 2010. These things take time. I don't expect a huge move to anywhere near $1.50 until some time in 2012 probably late so I'll just tuck it into the safety deposit box and wait for Dupont to deliver the biggest gold deposit since Benny Hollinger kicked over a clump of moss back in 1913.
Good luck to all...
Spoke to a finance wizard today and he says that at this stage, a JV is not the way to go. EXS needs to retain 100% of TPW at all costs. No major is going to accept a minority interest in the deal and will demand a majority interest AND operator status. A junior JV partner won't have nearly the financing capabilities of Explor so why give a piece of the deal?
Explor needs to secure a non-dilutive deal that allows the money-provider security of principal and an equity kicker - something like a sovereign wealth fund or a private debt/equity deal.
You have to force a major mining company to acquire ALL of Explor or ALL of TPW in order to pass-through the reward to we the minority shareholders. Anything that gives away majority interest in the deal will put a big fat bear hug on EXS' maneuverability and minimize the potential return and drag out the ultimate buyout. We MUST retain control and operator status.
The patient investor only has to await execution of the business plan and the validation of the model and everything will lift. For me, a shareholder since 2007, today's move means little. A move north of $1.63 (Feb 2010 highs) will be the validation point. And it might take another 6-9 months...Maris will probably see the light once he is above water again.
What'd I tell you? $.40 bid. Laydown hand to $.75.
Stock price valuation?
In good markets, $100 per ounce ( measured and indicated), $50 per ounce (inferred).
In poor markets, $50 and $25 respectively. (as in the 1982-2000 period)
Assume undiluted 110m o/s.
Pick your number.....
This video is NOT the "infomercial" that was referred to earlier. The more extensive version with interviews and sound is coming later. As to the ore body depicted in the video, you might have to wait for the 43-101 in order to make the correlation.
It is all good.
f EXS had only the patient, inciteful shareholders that all of you represent, the share price would never have sunk under $.50. However, the rabblerousers that love to stir things up and point fingers left and right are going to have it stuffed up their rings at the next AGM. My pals and I voted over twelve million shares today and garnered another twenty million through associates in FULL SUPPORT of Chris Dupont. Changes are being made and new mandates are being drafted at the board level that should benefit shareholders that have been so very deservant over the past four years - like me. In the interim, I would ask you to read the upcoming news on the 43-101 with intense pride and satisfaction. Mines are BUILT - not "found" and it takes time and perseverance to establish a thirty-million (plus) ounce deposit.
As a fellow shareholder, I applaud your patience.
Good luck.
Detour uses about a .3 g/t Au cutoff grade - just like TRR and Osisko. Superb promotions but if throughput costs go north, these guys will ALL fall on the sword. EXS is finally now able to catch bids; it is now a true BARGAIN; still has risk but well worth the 30m ounce reward potential.
Just do your best to hold on/add to holdings during this bullsheet tax-loss selling period. The TPW project is going to project out to a 600-metre deep repeat of the Hollinger-McIntyre-Conorarium "event". 2012 will be a big year for EXSFF and chances are you will get a print north of $.50 by Jan. 1/2012. We have all been bludgeoned this year but if you are in the right sector and that sector sees higher product demand/pricing (i.e. rising gold price), it is only a matter of time before you cash the ticket.
Explor's Only Problem...
is the seasonality associated with the need to crystallize tax losses. My buddy just completed the "Analyst's Segment" of the Explor video for BTV and he says on the screen that "if you want to look for elephants anywhere in the world, the Abitibi is the best place to hunt and Explor is a self-professed elephant hunter." I bought a few more at $.23 this morning and look for $.20 to add. Let;s face it - this is a market gripped with fear and fear is not the optimum environment for the Venture Exchange. I have done this for more than a few years and it is times like these that present the best opportunies and the best PROOF of such was December 2008 under $.15 that wound up north of $1.00 by February of 2010. If you bought that crash, you made huge money. I think this is the same under $.30.
The issue with EXS at this time has nothing to do with geology - whether or not there is a gold-bearing structure at TPW. The model has already been proven out but what we DON'T know is how much money will be required to establish a mineable resource as measured against the question of how many ounces will be established AFTER the funding requirements are spelled out. Until that is CLEARLY defined by management, the large investors that could create serious traction in the stock price AND the stock STORY will not play.
Retail will take the stock into the $.75-1.00 range as tax-selling abates, IMHO.
Update
Tomorrow all day, BNN/BTV is taping a segment featuring Explor from the Timmins Porcupine West site in West Timmins, Ontario. The film crew are going to tour the Hollinger/McIntyre sites in order to provide a proper perspective on the historic nature of the largest and most prolific gold camp in Canada.It is expected that this will be run several times per month for the next twelve months in an effort to improve both visibility and liquidity.
Management are pleased with the recent drilling with some pretty impressive visuals coming from the last hole currently being logged.
The tax-loss/investor fatigue "liquidation" of EXS shares is a normal occurrence this time of year along with reduced liquidity due to market conditions.These conditions are always a prelude to an advance in share price as long as macro-conditions remain gold-friendly.
The founder of the Homer Gold Mine (now LSG's Timmins Mine) is SETTU RAMAN and link to the Cameco Report may still be found in the TOPICS section of The Fundamental View. http://www.thefundamentalview.blogspot.com
The "liquidators" of their positions into tax-loss season may wish to read Turd Ferguson's interview over at ZeroHedge and you will get SUCH a charge.
In 1993, I bought shares in a little diamond explorer at $.35 per share. It ran to $1.05 on huge volume then started to back away. I did not sell. Many around me took the trade and then reloaded twice as much on the pulback to $.50. Then in 1994 it scooted back through a dollar on massive volume and again I held on due to the indicator mineral trains in the NWT containing really good chemistry. At the end of October that year, there was a scandal where Kennecott terminated a JV agreement with the Kettle River group and the entire diamond sector CRASHED and I mean crashed. The little junior I saw at $1.00 was trading at a new low by tax-loss period 1994 at $.39. On the last day of tax loss selling (Dec 23rd) I through up a bid for 50,000 shares at $.365 as a support bid and with four minutes til the close WHAM! I got filled.
After a miserable Xmas and New Year's I refused to even look at the market and then on a Saturday morning in March going into the grocery store my cell phone rang and heard the words "KIM-BER-LITE!" The next Monday the announcement was made and within six weeks, I was selling shares in the $5-6 range. Later in 1996, I sold the rest at $9.50.
The supreme retribution was that all of those traders that reloaded twice and laughed at me became "liquidators" of their entire positions at $1.10 in March 1995 thinking that they could buy it all back again at $.50. They left MILLIONS on the table.
The person running my little junior was a retired radiologist who was seen as a "donkey" by all of the traders and wiseguys. He had the final laugh and made $30m on the move to $9.00.
EXS is about TEN TIMES as explosive as any NWT diamond deal but just as it took three years for the little diamond deal to mature, EXS is running along the same time line.
If you cannot hack it, liquidate your positions and the market will absorb the shares at some price. It is obvious that the "blame game" is easier than patience so everyone has to deal with the adversity of a penny mining speculation in their own way.
It was my patience back in 1994 that made me several million dollars and I have a feeling that EXS will be no different.
On the topic of "What could have induced them to pay higher prices?" - let us not forget that Lakeshore rocketed from $1.85 to $4.30 per share while taking out West Timmins Mining and was capped at $1.6 billion on a single drill hole (83.7 m of 12.75 g/t) at Thunder Creek. The juniors in the area all caught a huge bid on the strength of the big move in WTM and LSG and that lit up the market for EXS as well as a few others. It was an exciting time for the West Timmins players from August 2009 until around March 2010. Then Lakeshore completely crapped the bed. The leader of the area play west of the Mattagami River promised the world; they smeared drill results at every turn; they crapped on EXS at ever turn; they completely under-delivered on production and revenue targets; and then finally got trashed by the Street for the BS they were spinning and the stock finally crashed from $4.00 to $1.27 and BAM! the West Timmins play became the West Timmins disaster.
Many of us got caught up in the razzle-dazzle of the West Timmins "story" and that created the hydraulics that took EXS to $1.63 trading 3m per day north of $1.25. And that was THEN and this is NOW.
So what does one do now? Point fingers? Blame the newsletter guys that were calling for $2.25 on "technicals"? Blame the SH posters that were pumping it? Blame the underwriters? Blame CD? Blame any and every individual involved with the EXS ramp job?
I think not. I think you sit back and assess your expectations and decide whether or not you want to own a lottery ticket on a structure 4.5 times the size of the HMC Complex, which would imply a 150 million ounce resource.
Could EXS be the re-emergence of the same geology that comprises the 69m-ounce Timmins camp? Absolutely. Will it get there before we reach 100 years old? Perhaps. Probably. Certainly. Take your pick.
I post here because I know the Abitibi like the back of my hand. I have been underground at the Kerr in KL, underground at the Crieghton in Sudbury; underground at the Hollinger. This is not a stock promotion; it is a journey. It is a difficult journey but one with an enormous potential pay-off. The dilutive effect of rasing that $100m for the shaft is a pittance compared to the in situ metal value of 150m ounces. CD and his allies have to find the right investor to write the cheque and then the entire short-term landscape changes.
And THAT, pray tell, is why I own the stock.
My Thoughts
There is an expression in the exploration game in the Abitibi and it goes like this: You drill for structure and you drift for grade.
What this means is this: At the Hollinger/McIntyre discovery in the early 1900's, the echelon veins were up on surface so there was never a need to rationalize a shaft because the miners high-graded the veins from surface. Once they go down to a certain level, they dropped a shaft down the "Golden Staircase" and the rest was history. They determined stucture and then drifted along cherry-picking the high-grade quartz veins and mined 19.3m ounces (Hollinger) and 10.7m ounces (McIntyre)but along a structure that was associated with a porphyry unit that carried roughly 480 m of strike. (Pearl Lake Porphyry).
Why EXS is sucking wind is because they are dropping 800m hole down from surface into a structure that is easily 4.5 times the size of the HMC structure (Pearl Lake). Despite these "long bombs", they have hit gold in 69 out of 70 holes. This carries a drawback in that the children that staff the analysts on the Street have no memory nor knowledge of the HMC, of the Dome, of the Paymaster, of the McIntyre, nor of the mighty Hollinger. They are using Rotman School of Business "models" that says that they need a 43-101 compliant resource FIRST in order to justify a shaft down to the 800m level. Once underground, they can "eyeball" the veins in the face of the drift and very effectively block off sections to bulk sample. However, in order to secure financing to get underground, they would have to drill for the next two full years and come every 90 days with a revised 43-101 report in order to have a sufficient "indicated resource". They would need a minimum of 1m ounces in order to secure the $85m required for a shaft and drift. The drift would be run from the south to the north lobe of the syncline; underground drill stations would be set up;and then the bulk sample could be taken from the juicier zones with the recovered gold serving to pay off the cost of the underground development.
Why investors are shunning EXS is that nobody knows how many more financings are going to be required in order to convince investors to pony up for the shaft. By my calculation, they should raise $100m through debt and then pay off the debt via the bulk sample.
So they can come with 50 more drill holes all running economic grade and width but it won't mean a thing if it does not result in securing a shaft. I know this and the market knows this.
So while all of the posts I read are "interesting", EXS is NOT going to advance on positive drilling results unless they pull a highly-improbable 80-100 m section of 12 g/t Au, which would be very unusual for this type of geology. What WILL make EXS charge to record highs will be an announcement that some entity or group is putting up the money to sink the shaft, thus acceleratingthe time it takes to go underground.
In my opinion, over the near term, the junior mining market is going to EXPLODE to the upside, as now the ECB has confirmed that they are buying the Italian debt which is effectively, MONETIZING the debt, or printing money. That was all that was needed in order to insulate the EEC banks and set up the Santa Claus rally of a lifetime. This rally will put a strong bid into the juniors and EXS will benefit with a rally to north of $.50, perhaps to $.75 but it will not occur on results. It will occur because on the potential associated with TPW, EXS is cheap.
Hope this helps.
The Junkster
Clarification:
1. No U.S. financing will be done. It is too dilutive and the company does not need the money.
2. There will no joint venture with a "major"...the only way it works is to accept a financing from a major so as to maintain EXS' 100% interest in TPW.
3. The IAG out of Montreal are NOT providing after-market support. Usually a brokerage firm that raises money will provide trading support.
4. Tax-loss selling is bearing down now.
5. Dupont needs to find a way to bring volume and interest into the deal. Thus far, the road shows have been a disaster.
I don't post here very often but I like the stock at around these levels but the ONLY development that will turn the stock is a complete face-lift at the board level. Until then, it will continue to be disparaged by the "angry shareholders" that paid way too much for their positions.
JV for EXS?
There is no way you want a "joint venture" with a major because that would dilute down the Explor interest in TPW - you want a "Direct Investment" into EXS by way of Private Placement. The major could throw two faces onto the Explor Board and they could set up a "TPW Budget Committee" in order to have a say in how the money gets spent.
If they take a stake in EXS directly, it means they like more than just TPW - it would validate the other exploration projects.
JMO
This stock is pretty attractive right now so I'd ignore the BS over on the IdiotBoard and focus on the fact that seasonality favors buying juniors in this time frame until the end of August. Furthermore, every August since 2007 that I've picked up EXS in August has led to a sale north of $.90 within a few months. Relax and buy more...
There is nothing in the short-term that can drive the stock until after they finance. Stockhouse posters are all full of hot air with thoughts of big drill-hole news. I own this stock because Dupont is 60-years-old and wealthy and is doing this as a passionate endeavour. He is also brilliant and knows how to build a mine. Give it time gang - it is in my retirement account and in five years, it will be worth a lot more than it is now.
Been long since 2007 so from where I sit, the lows will be late this week or next in the $.42-.45 range. I know it makes no sense nor rhyme or reason but some times these deals will do strange things right before they "catch"...The "gang" are on the U.S. Eastern Seaboard trying to gain some market traction against a really really shiddy market. I want more screaming from the newsletter community and a capitulative blow-down before I write the cheque for another $200,000. In the meantime, #47 and 47W1 and 47W2 (two wedge holes from 500 metres) are pending.
We are all going to make huge money - took me five years back in the 90's to make huge money but it happened.
EXS is a gift at current levels but it will take time and nerve to ignore all the garbage so just out it away in your mattress and forget about it. Otherwise you will go mad.
I for one have been a long term shareholder but, more importantly, have been doing this since 1977 (old fart) and the #46 hole wasn't just "good" - it was, in fact, "spectacular".
Stock goes up on news? "Great hole!" Stock goes down on news? "Bad hole, too much hype, lousy management!"
EXS will soon attract major PROFESSIONAL investors that will replace the "weiners" en route to $15.
The Fundamental View is an independent blog and its author used to be the esteemed DD2005 over on Shithouse that decided to yank his (free) due diligence due to the mindless bashing by idiots like Dent-in-the-head7 and the bonehead gang.
If you click on the Explor Due diligence link on the right side, you get an immense amount of research on all EXS projects.
insert-text-here
I hear that TPW has some good-looking rock and should be back from the labs by next late next week barring delays...
To be precise, the intention at KIdd is to "drill until the ice conditions force them (the drillers) to stop" so weather that is two, three, five, or ten more holes all depends on the weather in northern Ontario, which should be good into early April. The message is clear: Results are sufficiently encouraging to justify further expenditures at Kidd.
JV versus "Going it Alone" ---- make no mistake about one thing - a joint venture if structured badly will torpedo your upside potential. Look at all of the HudBay JV's where they put up the early money and get a 70% back-in arrangement. The junior takes all the risk and finds something then loses 70% right back to HudBay. No thanks. Or a DeBeers JV where the junior doesn't put hard execution dates for things like scoping studies and pre-feasibility or production and boom! Debeers sits on the news flow until the junior has no money and a 5-cent share price. No thanks.
EXS will take a private placement for 19.9% of its ownership structure from a major that will act as its investment bank but anything else would be a big fat "bear hug".
The plan is simple: Drill TPW and accelerate news flow thus driving the share price up then spin out TPW; wrap a big red ribbon around it and then blow it off to a major $10 a share while retaining EXS's property portfolio for the future.
Same for Kidd. Same for Destor. Rinse and Repeat.
End of discussion.
Really is good to see sensible people post in this forum as opposed to that bile one reads over at SH. Those results reported on Thursday were actually totally in line with the Timmins Camp and the Abitibi. There are many many more holes to come as TWO RIGS are now at TPW and the news flow should really start to come at a much-accelerated pace.
It has been a tough sell for EXS management (to attract the mega-funds) because in order to gain the traction associated with a "drill-hole play", you need consistent back-to-back positive assays and since exploring vein systems (like the 31m-oz Hollinger MacIntyre) requires hit-and-miss grid drilling, having two rigs (and soon four) means accelerated news flow and that is going to attract the larger LONGER TERM investor to the EXS party.
As for short term, more assays from TPW are expected prior to the PDAC in Toronto but the unknown quantity is the Kidd project where drilling may have commenced late last week (I should know later this morning).
I see a $500 million market cap for EXS by the end of 2011 (based on TPW alone)and that assumes that $5m of $.75 warrants will get exercised and eliminate the need to go market for another financing any time soon. One drill hole confirming MS ("massive sulphides") at Kidd and this thing is GONE to north of $1 billion.
Cheers,
the junkster
Unseasonably mild weather over the holidays has delayed the freezing of the bog and lake so we need minus 15-30 for a week or two and then the drilling will fire up.
Wedge holes underway off #30 so repeats of the 9 g/t material wouldn't surprise me.
Regarding Kidd Creek:
Remember that what Greg McCoach wrote about Kidd was in 2009 after the meltdown in metal prices. The ore value was at $200/tonne then - it is now $448 assuming 6.2% Zn, 2% Cu, 1.6% Pb and 75 g/t Ag. The gross metal value today would be over $60 BILLION.
EXS is drilling 1100 metres west of the Kidd Smelters in January in the first serious land position in over 40 years.
My first post here but let it be known that I have been investing in Canadian juniors since 1982 and have seen a great many companies act "investor-friendly" like Kodiak and Noront and Macdonald Mines and they ALL crashed and burned because management knew how to release GARBAGE NEWS dressed up like "progress".
If you understand terms like "strike length" and "geological models" you might consider the EXS releases to be adequately promotional but then again you have to understand the difference between what is classed as "geological accurate" and what is classed as "promotional".
News will flow freely next month and as long as the metals markets hold in there and as long as we don't get big major market downdraft, I see north of $1.00 by end-of-January.