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Re: AGB veritas post# 3108

Friday, 11/11/2011 2:19:49 PM

Friday, November 11, 2011 2:19:49 PM

Post# of 12573
On the topic of "What could have induced them to pay higher prices?" - let us not forget that Lakeshore rocketed from $1.85 to $4.30 per share while taking out West Timmins Mining and was capped at $1.6 billion on a single drill hole (83.7 m of 12.75 g/t) at Thunder Creek. The juniors in the area all caught a huge bid on the strength of the big move in WTM and LSG and that lit up the market for EXS as well as a few others. It was an exciting time for the West Timmins players from August 2009 until around March 2010. Then Lakeshore completely crapped the bed. The leader of the area play west of the Mattagami River promised the world; they smeared drill results at every turn; they crapped on EXS at ever turn; they completely under-delivered on production and revenue targets; and then finally got trashed by the Street for the BS they were spinning and the stock finally crashed from $4.00 to $1.27 and BAM! the West Timmins play became the West Timmins disaster.

Many of us got caught up in the razzle-dazzle of the West Timmins "story" and that created the hydraulics that took EXS to $1.63 trading 3m per day north of $1.25. And that was THEN and this is NOW.

So what does one do now? Point fingers? Blame the newsletter guys that were calling for $2.25 on "technicals"? Blame the SH posters that were pumping it? Blame the underwriters? Blame CD? Blame any and every individual involved with the EXS ramp job?

I think not. I think you sit back and assess your expectations and decide whether or not you want to own a lottery ticket on a structure 4.5 times the size of the HMC Complex, which would imply a 150 million ounce resource.

Could EXS be the re-emergence of the same geology that comprises the 69m-ounce Timmins camp? Absolutely. Will it get there before we reach 100 years old? Perhaps. Probably. Certainly. Take your pick.

I post here because I know the Abitibi like the back of my hand. I have been underground at the Kerr in KL, underground at the Crieghton in Sudbury; underground at the Hollinger. This is not a stock promotion; it is a journey. It is a difficult journey but one with an enormous potential pay-off. The dilutive effect of rasing that $100m for the shaft is a pittance compared to the in situ metal value of 150m ounces. CD and his allies have to find the right investor to write the cheque and then the entire short-term landscape changes.

And THAT, pray tell, is why I own the stock.

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