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TURN signal today IMO
http://www.ozestock.com.au/MessageView.asp?PostID=241249&Symbol=LOK
regards
Some info .. LOOK down 2.4% on the sector/market ($iix off 2.4% as well, OVER less 4.2%).
The 50% retrace target of this current move is $2.73, very close to close. I didn't watch trading today so I'm unsure if it is being accumulated ... there's genuine concern over the market today and the Fed will pull all stops now to sure it up tomorrow , IMHO.
I sold a decent portion of LOOK's (hold plenty LOK's) at a small loss to buy something else that looks more short term oversold and short term pop probable.
Still hold more LOOK/LOK than ever before, IMO, I expect FA to prevail short term.
Watch for a small volume rise tomorrow on a slight uptick day ... that would be a signal (in this market) to be positive.
Good company, pity about the market!
Regards
Bryce ... re ASX Bull Market ... One I like to watch is TLS ... as it is a good "indicator" for the ASX ... I monitor it in a couple of different ways and I've never seen it as positive for a breakout as now. I do wonder if there's a lot of US money flowing into the ASX as fundamentally Oz stocks are underpriced (IMO) compared with their hype n hope US counterparts.
But if you were to look at the long term ASX ...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$AORD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26...
I'm pretty certain we'll get some congestion between 3150 and 2950 in the form of the right shoulder.
Timing wise ... this lines up nicely with the theory that the US markets rally into month end then (at best) stall.
Regards.
Traden ... you've nailed it! REAL growth is what will count and personally I'm relaxed about LOOK's sector and LOOK's partnership (although my DD knowledge base suggests ignorance is bliss!) ... so for the mean time ... no worries ... doubled my LOK/LOOK holding today.
regards
Lookin ... an amazing feeling ... you're a Dad, this little person will now depend on you for the next twenty years, you'll watch your own genes develop before your eyes ... I truelly hope LOOK does fabulously to assist in this regard.
smugs .. re LOOK OK even if the US economy sucks.
I guess it's a matter of degrees ... if the Fed can keep the US indices in a narrow trading range ... say a 1000 point drop on the Dow ... LOOK will probably float to the top given good FA.
But did you see today GM are seeking Bond financing of $13B to cover 401 obligations.
Shares of Dow component General Electric Co. (GE) , which on Friday affirmed its second-quarter and full-year earnings forecasts, were up 33 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $30.19 and were among the most actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange. General Motors Corp. (GM) , also a Dow member, was up 99 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $39.06 after it announced a $13 billion plan to offer debt and convertible securities to help shore up its underfunded pension plan and meet healthcare obligations.
GE's forecasts are also proping up the market today ... yet ... read this ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2838395.stm
They have taken shareholders returns to meet their 401 obligations AS THE MARKET IS DOING POORLY! Their real PE is way higher.
It's smoke and mirrors.
It's a tightrope that is stretched very very tight ... and gold just keeps going up ... ever wondered why?
I'm not so sure the US can keep the Dow above 8000 ... one real "event" ... whatever that would be, would be enough to set in the panick. IMO.
And as a stockbroker once said to me "all ships go out with the tide"
Regards
LOOKs long term chart has definitely broken up from the comparible chart scenario in 2002 ... good for the superstitious. May be forming a big bullish channel ... we shall see.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=look&sid=0&o_symb=look&f...
Regards
Michaelirish .. I thank you for your response and the courage to take a firm position. I sincerely hope it is as you believe. I will not linger on reasons.. but needless to say what concerns me is the genuine lack of real growth in the US economy, growth that (I believe) is not achievable with a lower USD value (as all imports will cost more hence US deficit under more pressure as woud be the consumption ability of the average American).
Hence their stock market has to start to zing OR their interest rates rise to retain internationl investment.
If their stock market rises so too must the T Bond.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TNX,uu[m,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,...
Let's review this chart in two weeks then a months time.
If it is forming an inverted head and shoulders then ... you are probably right ... if it heads lower ... my worst case scenario has come to fruition.
(See the warning candlestick today?)
Regards
smugs ... I see this TA business as an exercise in mental arithmatic and I'm still learning. When I can realy say I know it ... I wont be posting. But in the mean time I enjoy the challenge of putting down views (not for the ego at all) for the challenge of drawing a line in the sand and having to substantiate it. Makes me work harder.
Re .. imminent collapse ... my largest positions right now are resource stocks, NVGN, and LOOK. I believe I'm quick enough on the trigger not to get too burnt ... but I do agree with you that LOOK would seem to have a great future ... and profitable companies are like hens teath in the US tech space ... (and I also hugely admire their policy on Exec Options ... and the modest salaries) ... so I'm willing to live with a position for another week and a bit, as I can't see the market collapse in the immediate future.
BTW ... I'll stick my neck out for a 25 point reduction Tuesday ... any more will freak out the market IMO. If so, the market sells off immediately then bounces back into months end.
Regards
smugs ... remember that reply ... remember your promo of a market rally one day ago ... remember my note of drop to OEX and ramp to month end ... I'm still long LOK so I got that rise ...looking for more today if things work out ... thanks for the Look FA either way. Watch for a US market drop to 11am - 2pm tomorrow and a rally into close.
By the way ... MSFT a $279 B Cap company just said that they want to work with LOOK a $300M Cap Co to win the search space race ... where's the downside?
Regards
TA ... Last day of Options expiry is often nutty ... and I personally believe will be the retrace bottom for LOOK (that's how I'm playing it) before the big rise into month end next week.
May I remind you that I've been calling this week end drop on both this and Oze ... remember the pattern for future Option expiry weeks ... smugs ... please take note as you often call market moves 180 degrees out.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1121133
Once support at $2.99 collapsed today ... curtains, but there was a small sign of MM buying into close ... not convincingly though ... watch the close tomorrow for a sign that's the bottom and a new up phase starts Monday. watch the ten day chart with Bolling Bands to see the bounce.
Regards
Typical TA warnings starting to show now ... example ... http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00506&read=55404
Mucho money for the big boys if they can tank the indexes into Options Expiry ... but then pressure on to rise into month end.
Regards
TA .. This is first leg up, watch $3.25 volume on a ten day chart for probable retrace prior to next leg up. If so $3.25 top tomorrow coincides with RSI 80 odd. Should be a walk in the park.
Regards
Russell refined annually July 1 ... http://www.russell.com/us/indexes/us/membership/reconstitution.asp
Assumption
Last July QQQ's at about $25, now roughly $30
Last July LOOK $1.75, now roughly $2.40
If this ratio comparison is relevant ... LOOK needs 17%-18% more upweight than the top 100 Nas stocks equivalent ... there has been a move towards the small growth stocks ... Hmmmm ..it would appear positive.
Basic analysis but the logic is probably OK as the generic Russell weightings appear determined by Market Cap, which will be reflected in share prices given no splits and not huge options exercising.
So more LOOK less CSCO !!! LOL.
Regards
Lookin .. thanks .. found it in the 3000 ... guess it stays there ... Here's "Bambi's" related article ... http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={7EF699D7-F22B-485F-A361-EDB47475312F}&symb=LOOK&...
Thing is ... Russell reweight by market Cap I believe ... I'll aim to find out how often ... and look at the relative moves over previous dates.
Regards
LOL ASKJ .. dyslexic eom
Russel 3000 reconstruction .. AJSK/FWHT look to be included ... no sign that LOOK will be. Positive for AJSK/FWHT.
Not Good!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1108526
Or go to the Russel Company to see their preliminary list (doesn't include LOOK)
Regards
OT Re ARL ... (I figured you had bt lower.) YES. IMO ... ARL is in no mans land ... I actually believe it goes higher first then sells back ... probably turning at 30 / 32 and going back to at least 25/26 ... obviously a break of 32 says higher, and any high volume doji day under 32 says lower.
Volume is the key .. but there is indecision based on the last two days candlesticks and already the recent chart has a bearish wedge look ... so odds favour the eventual downside off a lower high (than 32) IMO.
Regards
OT A4S AU:ARL ... watch volume over the next two days ... looks to me like it should retrace tomorrow or Wed, but best option is to sell into any confirmed volume spike. Low volume suggests strength and it may carry on to 30/32. Percentage play ... spike/retrace. IMHO. (I assume you don't mean ARL in the US)
I'm still here until I get kicked off LOL.
Watching the LOOK SMA200!
Regards
Lookin .. so YOU DONT understand $TNX do you ...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=%24tnx
Ha ... hook line and sinker!
Re Ignor Andy20020.. I always called this site the "fishtank" and I'm intersted to see how long I last ... Those who are "blind longs" will ignor reason, but others who realise markets are dynamic will appreciate an unbiased view. Over to you guys ... are you blind longs swimming in your own fishtank or are you savy investors? We'll see. LOL.
Regards
Anybody watching DCTH???
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/D/DCTH.html
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dcth&sid=0&o_symb=dcth&f...
OR NVGN ???
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nvgn&sid=0&o_symb=nvgn&f...
I'm fairly familiar with Novogen, but a recent trader in DCTH.
Regards
brrrrrp...naaah ... re Market Failure .. take a look at the $TNX chart (if you don't know what that is don't bother it'll be over your head).
If you follow Elliot Wave theory .. we have a small retrace then one more upleg (in theory).
If you are a bit cynical about the corrupt US market you'd assume a bit of a dip into Options Expiry next week to make the Options sellers the Maximum dosh, then a rally into month end for "painting" of 401 reports for the quarter.
But if you can read and think for yourself you'd want to read the following report and have a drink or two ... LOL
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp
Regards.
Market failure close at hand ... LOOK needs help Now!
Thanks traden ... I'll aim to only post TA here .. (no personality stuff .. will leave that elsewhere) ... in the hope that between excellent DD and market trends some of you may be able to trade a portion of your shares to better effect (and help me with the DD).
Regards.
H E L L O ???