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Every little bit helps on that 30 day avg closing price. That's a little less that has to made up if it gets over a buck before deadline.
I'll buy 'em brushes if they need 'em....
Old debts.
It's my understanding that Ray and co cleared all of HDY's old financing problems near the time of the first Blackrock investments, but I'm having trouble finding specifics related to this.
My gut tells me the recent trading/price action is due to the future events being well known and predictable, however I was going over some old notes and this one kinda stuck out timing wise. Dutchess agreement from the Feb 2006 S1-a:
"This debenture is a convertible debenture in the face amount of $1,500,000 maturing in August 2012 with an interest rate of 10%. Dutchess may convert the debenture in whole or in part into our common stock. The conversion rate is variable and will not exceed $1.00 per share, but may be lower and is subject to a formula contained in the debenture agreement. The actual number of shares that we may issue subject to the debenture agreement is not determinable as it is based on the market price of our common stock from time to time and could exceed 1,500,000 shares of common stock. See, below Dutchess Agreement Provision ."
Full text
This was in fact cleared long ago right? It would still appear in 10Q's otherwise.
Up until the conference call, where Ray indicated they were going for a preferred 40% farmout on the entire concession, I had thoughts on some type of split venture as well.
I was thinking a carried farmout on the deepwater with enough cash and a guaranteed rig lease to drill another play in the first 3D area. Probably in exchange for some carried interest for the deepwater operator. This would buy time to fully appraise the deepwater, establish and budget a comprehensive deep water plan, satisfy the PSC and, and provide HDY with an oportunity to remain operator on part of the concession up until a discovery.
Some may see it as throwing a lot of good money after a smaller target, but I think it would have provided more long term value than a rushed stab at larger target.
All JMHO of course. I certainly see the value in farming out the entire concession as well. (and I certainly wouldn't mind seeing a a Giant discover sooner than later)
Let me retract that last comment. This just got VERY interesting. Nice to see some volume coming into the move.
Facebook Effect?
A lot of money was moved around to fund the Facebook IPO, probably including some specualtive cash. Interesting that the markets went lower (including HDY) as the IPO approached, and recovered as it sold off.
I'm hardly suggesting a direct correlation between FB, HDY, and the markets, just fascinated when large chunks of money change hands in short periods. LOL
[edit} guess I should also add that the low volume movement in HDY is interesting, but I too do not feel it is of major significance.
You knew, I knew, they knew.
In fact, I made a small buy myself yesterday figuring it was pretty well priced in. My problem is with the appearance it presents in light of recent legal fluff. It appears they made purchases after they received the notice and before it was made public.
While it would looked a whole lot worse if these had been sales obviously, I'm pretty certain these transactions take more than a day to put together, so probably semi-coincidental. Just a comment.
I have some other, more productive, thoughts on recent events I'll try to put together later. Haven't been around much lately and have some catching up to do.
Hate to go there but... A little curious that NYSE Listing notification was received by the Co on May 14th, the same day RL filed, and the day before Solberg, and of course a few days before PR. Kind of a day late and a dollar short to prop up the share price.
Just another reason the shorts might hang on for a while longer. If nothing else a heads up...
http://www.russell.com/indexes/tools-resources/reconstitution.asp?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+RussellIndexesRecon+%28Russell+Indexes+Reconstitution+Central%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo
-Edit: Looks like current ~220M cap should keep this in.
http://www.russell.com/indexes/tools-resources/reconstitution/us-capitalization-ranges.asp
Lost connection to webcast isit me or them?
That could create some logistical problems.
If an announcement were to come this week, protocol would say Ray should be in Guinea to show solidarity with the head of state. That would make for some quick trip to make it back to address the S/H meeting on Friday. Abscence at the meeting would be a similar affront to some less than thrilled investors.
I'm not expecting lab results this week myself.
Someone liked something here this morning. (EOM)
The Co. manages to get good news out on what looks to be an up market day. Should be interesting to watch how this one plays out.
I'm fortunate to be "in" with my trading shares so the blind squirrel may have finally found one....
It doesn't always work out. But if misery loves company I'll note that I sold a good chunk of my 0.29's in the 7.40ish range. Then in a brilliant move I bought most of them back at 5.00 during the offering, then the rest at around 3.40 to increase my position. I've managed a couple of swing trades since the first of the year that should cover my tax bill for those I sold last year. Hoping to be in a much different position come tax time next year.
This is part of playing the speculation game. It's all bonus round if it plays out, but I sure ain't depending on it....
(trust me, I know exactly what I'm doing, no really!)
Guess it could be worse...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/06/lake-vostok-antarctica-russians-penetrated_n_1258440.html
Russians reach TD of just over 3768 meters after 20 Freakin Years.
In fairness, probably tougher drilling in Antactica than off shore Guinea.
Time for absurd random observations...
If enough people believe it will drop to 2.01, then I believe it will probably drop to 2.01.
If we believe others have the inside track on information then they must be pretty confident that there will be no PR on monday morning based on today's trading. This will help support belief no. 1
There are enough potential things to worry about now (drillship, deal, cash, manipulation, etc) that this is an easy target for "clap your hands and see who flinches" type situations.
As much as I hate getting played, I also want to keep on top of what is going on with my investment. So I'll go with the good info I have, try to rationalize the moves I cannot explain ( and recognize when they are NOT rational), and hopefully not get steered into knee jerk error.
Just remeber, there is money to made both directions so traders will lean toward the least resistance.
This would be a good time to break out the popcorn, but the ride may get a bit wild(er) and I don't want to ruin my shoes. ;^)
So, anyone want to speculate if a chunk of the last placement went toward another 60 day extension on the "deal". And how many times can we "buy back in" before the final hand is dealt?
On a more serious note. The timing would certainly be ripe for some news on one of the fronts. Recent trading action has me wondering if this rally might be a planned easing of pressure by short entities, anticipating additional shares to free up at options expiration. If no news by Monday it might be possible to run share price back down to 2.76 area with a new supply of loanable shares and momos retreating.
Or is that more far fetched than the previous idea?
So let's just start our own rumor to keep fueling the rally until something concrete does surface.
I see Kosmos doing a reverse merger into HDY (after HDY shareholders approve issuance of a half bazillion more shares) to take Kozmos public at just over a gazillion dollars. Current HDY shareholders get .1 share of new co. for each share, valueing them at .000004 gazillion dollars each.
New company is called KosiDynamics and trades under symbol WTF.
(puulleaze get me away from this computer until news breaks or rally subsides)
Nice, I thought we might have to wait for the west coast guys to show up again today. Looks like the yankees are running with it for now.
HDY Mention tomorrow's (?) Engineer Live.
Old news,even though the page is dated 1-20-12, but any publicity is good publicity right? HDY mention on pg 4 of seismic survey article:
http://www.engineerlive.com/Hydrographic-Seismic/4D_Fixed_Installation_Seismic/Seismic_surveys_progress_worldwide/23922#
"Guinea and Mongolia, too
Using the survey vessel Oceanic Endeavour, seismic contractor CGGVeritas is to acquire 3D seismic data in a deep water area covering approximately 4000km2 in Hyperdynamics' oil and gas concession offshore Guinea in West Africa. After it completes the data acquisition phase of the project, CGGVeritas will also process the data.
The survey area is located just southwest of and adjacent to the 3D survey obtained by Hyperdynamics in 2010. The primary goal of this new survey is to investigate multiple possible deep water submarine fans in the equatorial Atlantic margin that were identified from a 2D seismic survey acquired in 2009.
Ray Leonard, Hyperdynamics ceo, commented: "The deep water 3D survey will utilise CGGVeritas' BroadSeis broadband solution, which is expected provide a clearer and more detailed image of the subsurface. This 3D survey is a critical next step in our ongoing Guinea exploration campaign, one that should further de-risk our acreage and help us identify the most promising deep water locations for future drilling."
Hyperdynamics operates the Guinea concession with a 77 per cent participating interest, with the remaining 23 per cent held by Aberdeen-based Dana Petroleum, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Korean National Oil Company."
I don't know if I agree with the situational analysis.
"The last thing you'd want is a bunch of alcohol-fuelled angry shareholders"
They're (we're) probably going to be "alcohol-fueled" anyways, so why not get 'em in one place, away from the hotel, so you won't run into them ;^)
Meanwhile, I hope this pressure rise isn't just a gas pocket.
-Tongue firmly in cheek-
We Believe...
But of not blindly. Prospects look good, execution not-so-much. Nonetheless, this too can be overcome.
I think everyone's ready to open christmas presents already, it's just human nature. I liked the reference in the recent Guinean interview where it was posited that some Guineeans believe they have struck oil and are sneaking it out in submarines. While this is a bit of an extreme example it should be kept in mind. What happens if we do have a commercial find? Then see how the people respond after they hear it will take several more years before the field is developed enough to generate revenues from that oil. That's when things might get sticky. We definitely will need a better PR firm IMHO...
In case you haven't noted it your research, and for the benefit af any other new "eyes" on the board. What Blackrock may be seeing is:
- New management and staff on board since 2009. Highly respected industry professional replacing a CEO with no real experience in O&G exploration.
- 77% interest owner/operator of one of the largest offshore concessions in the highly prospective west Africa transform margin. With Dana/KNOC holding the remaining 23% interest.
- Good working relations with a more stable government and democratically elected leader in Guinea.
- Acquisition of additional seismic data on the concession including 3D on the shallow water portion with deep water 3D in progress.
- Identification of numerous leads and prospects within the concession (this is no one trick pony) All independently reported by NSAI with substantial unrisked reserves.
- Elimination of toxic financing carried over from previous team and additional funding guaranteeing the drilling of 1 , probably 2, wells and acquisition of 3D seismic on the deepwater portions of the concession.
- A $10 million deposit on what management describes as a "transformational deal". Although there are numerous contingencies.
- Spudding of the first exploration well in 4Q of 2011 on a prospect with over 200MMB unrisked estimate. This completed all work requirements of the exploration contract through 2011. Company is nearing completion of all requirements through 2016 and still moving forward with additional work plans.
These are just some of the highlights. Much more and detailed information is available in the stickies at the top, and on the company website.
This is a spec play, certainly not for the nervous investor , with a high risk/reward ratio based on available data.
In many respects it should be looked at more from the perspective of a startup exploration company from 2009 forward. While previous leadership made some progress, the company languished with toxic financing, contractual and governmental relations problems, and questionable business decisions.
Hope this helps, if you were just making smart comments about the no revenue aspect of the business, you’re probably looking at the wrong type of investment here.
Guinean political situation and OPIC.
With today's report that elections are to be postponed:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i-xCvIPgY1kkHy7v6T3EHE57VRfw?docId=CNG.65f564f60f03ebab6c4103aa632a6e7a.5f1
It makes me wonder if the company has/needs any contingencies along these lines.
While I see the reasoning for the postponement as more positive than negative, I am reminded that the company was previously rebuffed in it's attempts to obtain investment insurance under OPIC. http://www.opic.gov/insurance
Since the management change and the political climate improvements in country, I am curious if the company has pursued this any further or if the current leadership even regards it as necessary. Seems like it would provide some cushion to risk.
If anyone could provide any insight, I would be curious. Possibly a question for the next investor update.
From the 2011-09-07 conference call.
Closing comments:
"For the shareholders that hung on through the tough years, you are
about to have your confidence tested. For those that have joined us for the past two years, we thank you for your confidence."
'nuff said
Right I was just pointing out that the larger players may yet want to make adjustments and they have time to do it before year end.
This changes the game nonetheless.
Some uncertainty remains about exactly when drilling will resume and what kind of performance is to be expected when it does.
This definitely pushes results past the end of year, which will have implications for many investors and funds who may wish to do window dressing.
Still, it wasn't a game ender and HDY investors have certainly proved they are a resilient bunch.
Methinks the recent job postings could be directly related to the "operational issues" mentioned.
"No Mr Wizard I don't want to be an oil explorer anymore..."
A little help please.
I distinctly recall in one of the conference calls or presentations that Ray addressed the issue of announcing well results. In response to a question, he stated something to the effect of You shouldn't trust anything you hear, it will only come from him when it is announced. Seems like a reasonable thought even if he did not say it specifically.
Anyone else recall or can attribute this, or am I just creating more false realities?
Somebody "flinched", now they are trying to regain their composure. This is a tense game some of 'em are a playin' Who's going to cave first. JMHO
Thinking about this a bit further. It seems that, since there is only ONE active drilling operation in the country, a person with a pair of decent binoculars could probably keep track of when the smaller casings started leaving the yard and have some idea what point the drilling was at. Of course a drillship should have a pretty good on-board capacity for supplies, but it makes you realize that you don't really need deep insider information to keep track of these things.
They wouldn't necessarily of had to know about the 10Q.
Just knowing what happened with the last NSAI report perceived delays, I would have been making adjustments if I knew the drilling was going to be running late.
"A special opportunity"
It's sooo obvious to me... Strategic American Oil Corporation (OTCBB:SGCA.OB)
Okay that was baaad, but the board seemed like it could use a little levity after the last couple of days.....
Hmmm is this a clue to where the cash is going. Pretty WAG but would make the geology work complimentary.
Staying tuned...
I'd wager that a chunk of the selling is money that recently came into this company to trade the drilling completion and just saw their timeline moved out. Just reset the chart back a few weeks and ....
Further I doubt that we will get much additional info on the $10M "deposit" on another property. Will probably be confidentiallity agreements in place. Not sure I agree with that but it is what it is. My only conceren in that area would be if the drilling delays triggered the 2nd $5M payment. Also if the monetary commitmnets toward this project, in combination with cost overruns, jeopardizing the second well.
Hopefully we'll know more very soon.
GLTA
Short Strategy: Could it be bullish? WAG
With a lot of conversation dedicated to speculation on the short strategies tied to HDY, I thought I would throw my own thoughts while we wait for drill results. Strictly speculation here.
So upside to a short postion taken in the 4.50-5.00 range is 4.50 to 5.00 if things go horribly awry for the company. But wait, much of the short position was taken after the company had secured financing for this year's drilling and exploration with reserves to spare. What are they thinking?
Suppose you have access to funds and a nimble trading platform. At this point, the only thing that will boost share price to cause over 100% loss for you [shorty] is a succesful drilling result. If this is the case, the upside is honestly several hundred percent over time. So you cover your short utiizing cash on hand, take your beating, and go long. Only difference is you make a 300-400% eventual profit rather than 500%. In the mean time your covered for the unexpected or a bad result. From this perspective (assumption you can cover reasonably) the down side of the trade is not so great. This would require a BULLISH outlook in the event of a successful well.
Now back to the well watch...
Just wanted to say....
Red letter day for me, the company, and fellow investors.
Good to have the contract secured and great hopes for success in drilling.
Also Happy Birthday to my youngest grandaughter!
Certainly no need for guilt on your investment CHM ;^) I've probably added as many shares in the last 9mos as I had held previously. Certainly better swing trades this year to accumulate than when the SP was under a buck!
GLTA
Rounding the Cape (a bit OT)
While any winter journey has potential for problems. I would speculate that, with the current conditions and type of vessel, the Jasper crew is having an easier go of it than this bunch did towing a FPSO around the cape in Sept. Interesting read to pass the time while we wait for arrival.
http://www.svitzer-coess.com/Download.ashx?id=13
Thanx CHM. Good stuff there (EOM)
Well the Watt's team bought me a nice car when I cashed out. Sold most of a zero cost basis position when the US oil thing started to come apart.
I expect the Leonard team to buy me a house. Of course I've got some skin in the game this time, so I watch it more closely ;^)
What I'm saying is no hard feelings about the past. It was what it was at that time. I just think we are in a different kind of game with greater potential now.
Prolly of no concern. The HDY shares were probably used to capitalize the private co, secure funding, or whatever. (my WAG)They will probably stay tied up in the new company. Looks like the M. Watts kids parlayed 4.5mil $ in HDY sh into 9.5mil $ of an OTC company and got 33% control plus whatever interest Driver has.
I would be a lot more concerend about K. Watts new venture and if he has used his holdings to underwrite it. If they ever get into problems they might unexpectedly liquidate some holdings or loose control of a block of shares.
Come to think of it, I don't even want to worry about those guys.