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Friday, 10/21/2011 10:56:07 AM

Friday, October 21, 2011 10:56:07 AM

Post# of 21090
Short Strategy: Could it be bullish? WAG
With a lot of conversation dedicated to speculation on the short strategies tied to HDY, I thought I would throw my own thoughts while we wait for drill results. Strictly speculation here.
So upside to a short postion taken in the 4.50-5.00 range is 4.50 to 5.00 if things go horribly awry for the company. But wait, much of the short position was taken after the company had secured financing for this year's drilling and exploration with reserves to spare. What are they thinking?
Suppose you have access to funds and a nimble trading platform. At this point, the only thing that will boost share price to cause over 100% loss for you [shorty] is a succesful drilling result. If this is the case, the upside is honestly several hundred percent over time. So you cover your short utiizing cash on hand, take your beating, and go long. Only difference is you make a 300-400% eventual profit rather than 500%. In the mean time your covered for the unexpected or a bad result. From this perspective (assumption you can cover reasonably) the down side of the trade is not so great. This would require a BULLISH outlook in the event of a successful well.
Now back to the well watch...