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I've already explained it for you. There is no motive as there were minimal options outstanding. If you want to continue to make this into the "pelican brief" fine but there is no conspiracy theory here. No one manipulates a stock over a dime with that few open contracts.
Thanks. Just trying to keep it real.
Why don't you look at the option activity think about it and revisit whether you think the hedge funds would spend time manipulating ARIAD today to get it to 8.99. Today based on a price of $9 and total stock traded of 5,521,995 there was $49,697,955 worth of ariad stock traded.
Now go look at the open interest for 9 dollar calls. Total open interest of 4310 contracts which would equate to 431,100 shares. So lets say it should have closed at 9.10 that would cost those option holders $47,000 dollars. Are you honestly telling me that on a day that almost 50 million dollars of ariad stock traded there were hedge funds working to manipulate the stock to save $47,000. How much would it cost them to manipulate the stock to squeeze the blood from the stone to produce $43,000 of manipulated gains?
With the market down and biotech down we had an ok day given we were only off 11 cents. It would have been nice to see some upside from the news, I agree, but I just can buy into this notion that everytime we don't go up its manipulation. Too much rationalization here to make people feel better about their decision or lack there of. It would be different if I hadn't heard this tune for about 5 years now.
I think, absent some evidence, its a bit of a stretch to say that the "hedgescum" are the reason we closed below $9 today. You aren't the only one to say it I know, just the last one. Do investors on this board notrealize that the Dow was down almost 300 points today and the Nasdaq was down 75 points. Is it that hard to believe that ARIAD goes down 10 cents on a terrible day in the markets without it having to be manipulated?
Oh yea will i. Tell me more br what's going to happen? I love that you've changed your tune on the prospects of the company because they didn't put out a press release on Scotland because that means something bigger is coming. My god your basis for your thinking is so solid. Lol.
What does that have to do with the difficulty associated with writing a press release. No one said getting approval was easy. Writing a press release however, is easy. If you don't think so then your bar for difficulty is set very low
In doubt they are so busy that somone can't draft a PR saying its approved in Scotland I could write it in 5 min with a crayon on a napkin.
I always speak in ranges so I'm pretty sure I didn't say the buyout would be at 12. But a market cap of 2.5 billion which is what it would be at 12 not taking into consideration the convertible and warrants seems so much more reasonable than a market cap of 9 billion at 45 or what we number you think is reasonable. Either way it's not so much that you think that 45 is a reasonable value it's the fact that you start name calling people who say it's unreasonable. You can think anything you want but to accuse someone of foul play for disagreeing with you and a price, which quite frankly, is off the charts compared to everyone else's views. That's what makes your price commentary so much more offensive than mine.
Saying 45 dollars is a ridiculous price target for an ariad buyout doesn't make someone a pundit. It makes them reasonable.
Im certainly they won't keep him on at all
Well then we will agree to disagree. I think critically evaluating ones decisions as new facts present themselves is a driver of good decision making. Doesn't mean you will make the right decision. Information is power. It doesn't guarantee a positive outcome but not using information that is available to oneself certainly decreases the chance of meeting ones objectives.
Maybe when he invested over a year ago and he believed Harvey would execute on his promises to build shareholder value. Then changed his mind after a year and a half of disappointment. This concept that once a decision is made or an opinion formed it must remain unchanged in perpetuity is what got most longs on this board in trouble in the first place.
Yes that is exactly my point, thanks for making it. Lots of people here call it a flash crash but no one outside of this board would.
While Ariad's stock crashed in a flash it wasn't a flash crash. Flash crash has a pretty specific meaning.
"A flash crash is a very rapid, deep, and volatile fall in security prices occurring within an extremely short time period. A flash crash frequently stems from trades executed by black-box trading, combined with high-frequency trading, whose speed and interconnectedness can result in the loss and recovery of billions of dollars in a matter of minutes and seconds"
Ariad's crash didn't stem from black box trading or high frequency trading it was driven by an event. Its Lead drug halted its trials and eventually was pulled from the market. There was no sudden recovery.
Thanks. Anywhoo we are on the same side and I'm headed to bed so happy Friday to you :)
I said nothing about HBs credibility which seems to be the focus of your disgreement. My point was with the liquidity issue in 2019 brought forward by the poster with out validity. This asserted issue could be rectified by a myriad of methods and is totally dependent on the progression of the company and is completely irrelevant in the here and now. More likely a straw grasping attempt at fear mongering. It's a non issue if the company is put in the hands of a rational business person that holds investors interest as a priority. I mean come on, with all the poor operational decision making you think debt payment s of 300 million 5 years from now should be at the forefront of our decision making?
Institutions are happy with fast money. If they can get it they will take it. They don't care about who runs the company. If they can get a double in 6 Months they will take it over a possible quadruple in 5 years with high risk. None Of these institutional investors care about the patients the company or your love of the science. They care about making money for their investors because that is their job. This isn't a hobby for them and they don't have allegiance to anyone. Your framing this as some epic battle between Harvey and Denner makes this into something mote than it is. Most people don't care. Most people want to make money. And if they look at Harvey's track record they know there is no reason to believe in him. In a quarter of a century ariad hasn't made money. If Harvey retains control they never will. That's not JMHO as everyone feels they need to say. That's a quarter century of experience speaking.
Listen if you want to be credible don't talk about debt payments in 2019. These are long term planning issues none of which should factor into our short term decision making.
Ha ha ok. I'll put a breathilzer on my ihub account
Wait is it a repeat occurrence. Lol. It probably is.
Damn I'm going to have to proof my responses after my second helping of whisky
This will be is very soon if shareholders do it the right thing
Its down 3%. How one uses the term free fall to describe this is beyond me.
I don't understand? Its time for him to leave if he wasn't so condescending? What does this mean?
Sorry Maybe my post wasn't clear. What I was saying was that for Denner Stock appreciation isn't enough. If the stock was to go tomorrow to $15 it wouldn't be enough for Denner because he would still have no way to dispose of his shares. Given our situation, if Denner decided to start selling off his shares, Im fairly certain we would see the stock price collapse. My point was more that for denner stock appreciation isn't enough, he needs a vehicle to dispose of his shares. In our current state that clearly has to be a buyout.
Each share holder gets one vote for each share that they own. There are no other votes other than owners.
Well than you and I are only 3 to 5 dollars off in our views. Id be disappointed with less than 12. 15 makes me happy. 20 I'll be over joyed. 25 to me seems too high. Clearly Id take it though.
As much as that man doesn't deserve anything. Let's not cut out nose off yo spite our face once Loses his board seat. Give him the parachute and get him OUT
My guess on the stock price in a sale is just a guess. However at least my guess is reasonable. We've wallowed in the single digits for going on 2 years but you wanna believe we are going to see 38 or wait 50 in a year or two.
I don't claim to know what will happen. Im just done with the rose colored glasses. If you and jesspro want to talk about how much money you are going to make irrespective of
Polar opposite strategic directions. Great. The Nile isn't only a river in Egypt. 25 years of no returns for investors but now suddenly magically we will all be rich no matter what. Sounds like a publisher clearing house advertisement.
I see continue mediocrity and lathargic performance if HB wins. And I certainly will take my money elsewhere.
Your view that no matter what happens we win has never been true. There are few win win situations. Most of the time you have to make good decisions to make money. The concept of a sure thing is a pipe dream. Most people realize that.
I expect a sale in the mid to upper teens.
Agreed. I don't expect 20 but would be very happy if that happened
Berger must go plain and simple and I believe he will. But if anyone thinks that denner is some white night who is interested in maximizing ariad's potential over 10 years and making it yh the next celgene i think they are very wrong. He wants share appreciation and a vehicle to unload his shares. You see for Denner it isn't enough for the stock to rise to the low teens. He also needs a way to dispose of his shares. He can't just sell 6 percent of the company on the open market because as an insider everyone would know and the price would tank. Denner needs to get rid of Harvey because a) it will unlock shareholder value because of b) the new head will be hand chosen to do a deals which will allow for an orderly
Conversion of denner (and our) shares into cold hard cash.
His plans are clear. Oust Berger and sell the company for a premium to the current share price. If anyone doesn't know this they are asleep at the wheel. He is in this to make a buck and do it quickly. He has no interest in being the CEO of a biotech.
I didn't say it was par for the course. I said that the pension committees that set the investment allocation targets for the investment managers do so at their discretion based on their own strategic direction. However it is not uncommon for pension plans to have a portion of their allocation in speculative investments. For example venture capital private equity funds which are far more speculative than ariad.
Either way. What is your basis for asserting that the lawsuits you say are coming? And also what does it matter. I don't see how they affect ariad directly. What would be the financial impact to ariad. Nothing that I can see.
A pension plan can invest in anything they want. The investment manager has the responsibility to invest in accordance with the investment guidelines determine by what ever fiduciary body oversees the plan. However that oversight body can set the guidelines for allocation. I've seen plenty of pension plans have investment guidelines that allow for investment in far more speculative assets than ariad. iE private equity funds. Not sure where you are getting this conspiracy theory from. Either way even if the fund gets sued that has zero impact to ariad now. So what's the point?
Make it 15 and Im on board with you.
Why not. Look at your recent posts. "Denner may just delay his activism jmho". Certainly qualifies as grasping for straws