Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The post I quoted starts with "The next molecule ...". 113 is not the next molecule. Isn't it clear enough?
They are no long pursuing egfr.
There will be no Tax Loss Selling on Jan. 1, 2014, will it?
Why don't take the advantage of Tax Loss Selling and buy/add cheapened gold bags of ARIA shares? I did in 2008 and added shares at $0.81.
Years later, you will feel about your purchase now at $6.64 the same way as I feel now about my purchase at $0.81 years earlier.
I will never sell a single share until I get my price.
Those who really know ARIA price tomorrow don't post here. Instead, they do ... in advance as they did on Oct. 8, 2013 ahead of the plotted flash crash to which the FDA contributed.
Nobody really knows. If any a prediction happens to be right, it will be just a matter of coincidence.
However, someone's prediction may be right:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95369804
So the news had been out on Oct. 8, 2013 before the retail investor knew it Oct. 9, 2013 when you and I saw the conspired flash crash with dismay, right?
everyone knows the news is always out before the retailers know it. So what is your point?
Someone posted it at 2:25am on Oct. 18, 2013:
EPIC trial terminated - by stock_market_looser • Oct 18, 2013 2:25 AM
The EPIC trial has been terminated last yesterday. You will hear the news today...
I don't believe that the FDA will revoke the Iclusig (Ponatinib) label for intolerant/resistant CML patients with the T315I mutation and for Ph+ve ALL patients. I think they will only update the currently existent black box warning. Patients from these indications will continue to receive the drug, however, this market is too narrow. We are talking about a few hundred patients globally.
... you will see the news in american newspapers before the market opens today.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Did the FDA & Hedge Funds know it before the Oct. 9 plotted flash crash? Did the FDA & Wall St. know it before the Dec. 20 Iclusig return? Maybe!
Those who really know what is about to happen don't post their predictions on a message board. Instead, they ... in advance.
However, there is an exception I am going to tell about in my next post.
Monday price best prediction. thanks in advance. look for a good entry point
Nobody really knows. There are various honest predictions and so-called predictions pumping or bashing. If one of the predictions is proven right, it is just a matter of coincidence.
Eugene Fama, the 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences, found that it is nearly impossible to predict short term changes in stock prices. In the 1960s he showed that knowing how a stock performed last week will do little to help determine this week’s prices.
"ARIA will become the next BIIB or AMGN. I think it would take 3 years, 5 years or 10 years. ", posted grandma_of_jbraika.
Buy and hold the gold bags of ARIA shares. You won't regret if you are a long term investor
God bless cancer patients! God bless Ariad! God bless Ariad investors whose money invested is supporting the lifesaving drug company.
The company produces lifesaving drugs. Ariad provides cancer patients who don't have medical insurance coverage with Iclusig free of charge.
vidpok45: "Every dollar invested in this company may help somebody avoid death, in addition to our obvious objective."
In addition to Iclusig, Ariad has another lifesaving drug AP26113 for lung cancer patients. Ariad has a great lab that is working on still another molecule which will be announced next year as a best-in-class cancer drug targeting solid tumor.
rajib_901: "God bless Ariad.....I was listening to the conference call. The company will prosper and flourish. They said they would be supplying the drug for free for all those patients with no insurance coverage. Shorts might see a lack of revenue for the company with this approach. But I see a mighty blessing from almighty God to the company since humanity is being served at first hand. We the ARIA longs are also blessed to be part of the asset of such blessed company."
trading_cyclist: "Just to chime in...100% they stated they will be providing Iclusig FREE to patients w/o insurance. They have my vote, and I'm long for the duration. Ariad is the real deal, run by competent and good people, and they have a life saving drug....provided free of charge to those in need. Shorts have this one wrong, and that will come out in the end (which may be months or years, but....so be it.)
"
Very good question!
Thanks, greggors.
I will. Please do the same, civic. Perhaps every body should do what you sugeested.
Grandma file a Complaint with the BOA /ml compliance dept pointing out Rachel's a PUBLIC False and Misleading comments and say you want a response or you will file a complaint with the SEC.That's a better use of your time and effort.
BOA's ARIA holdings in its Nasdaq Biotech Index Swap fund:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=95353658
No wonder Rachel McMinn's AP26113 valuation is ZERO and her ARIA target price was/is $2/$3.
Biotech_Research was right saying she was unprofessional and pathetic at the latest Ariad CC. And No wonder she was unprofessional and pathetic. She might lose her job at BOA.
I have a short position. So I can hardly agree with anybody who are positive on ARIA.
Intentionally or not, every poster is biased based on his/her position. So am I.
I will always be biased (based on my position) on the charts, but I still have to take note of trends and patterns that start to break "the other way".
The BOA's top short position was disclosed by biotecher86 on the YMB. I just quoted biotecher86's post in my previous post.
BR, you are right. Rachel McMinn is pathetic and unprofessional. She said "I'm not sure Ariad can survive". She was totally wrong.
"Wall Street wrongly participated that Ariad would bankrupt in 10/1999. But Ariad CEO turned things around magically." ARIA dropped to $0.50 in Oct. 1999. 4 moths later in Feb. 2000, ARIA was as high as $48.50," posted spokesman_for_ariadinvestor, Oct 14, 2013 11:34 AM
Who have listen to BOA ML's Rachel McMinn or BMO's Jim xyz after the flash crash? They are really paid pumpers and dumpers.
BOA is at the top of the holdings list of the 30M shares short on Ariad from $2? No wonder BOA's Rachel McMinn's AP26113 valuation is ZERO and her ARIA target price was/is $2/$3. She may lose her job with BOA. And no wonder she was unprofessional and pathetic at the latest Ariad CC as observed by biotech_researcher.
NASDAQ Biotechnology Index SWAP Bank of America, NA, posted by biotecher86.
Just curious if anyone knows/understands what these swaps are. I was trying to figure out who would possibly hold 30M shares short on Araid from $2. I tried to look at the holdings of the ProShares biotechnology ultrashort ETF, ticker symbol 'BIS'. At the top of the holdings list is a Bank of America Nasdaq biotechnology index swap. I had also noticed the 2M shares were shorted on December 9th, and then I noticed that large quantities of almost every biotech stock I watch were shorted on December 9th, so I thought it must be the result of a hedge fund activity of some kind. Just curious, anyone know what's happening with this?
ARIA had a terrible October in 1999. However, it started to recover in December, and had a great 1Q in 2000; Now, it it had a horrible October again. However, it started to recover on Dec. 20, 2013.
Will ARIA has a terrific 1Q in 2014? It least it looks promising now at the year end of 2013.
What happened to Ariad during 10/1999 - 03/2000 will probably be repeated. By 03/2014, ARIA may reach $50+ or more if history repeats. History repeats itself, doesn't it. Who knows?
I am not a trader. I don't predict short term target price because I don't think it is predictable. If anybody interprets my statement above that way, it is his/her freedom. However, he/she should have noticed the word "probably" in my statement.
Ariad's history tells that during the period of 10/1999 - 03/2000, ARIA rose more than 50 folds. When ARIA dropped below $1.00 in Oct. 1999, who predicted it would be $40+ a few months later?
History may or may not repeat itself. Who knows? When ARIA was at $25.40 in Oct, 2013, who predicted it would drop to $2.15 a year later? The faithful longs had to face the reality.
ARIA may reach $50. If it does happen, the shorts will have to face the reality. One usually doesn't realize reality until he/she faces it.
---------
My stepdaughter works for BIIB. She told me about the BIIB Tysabri story.
Ninhp32809 predicted ARIA would be the next BIIB. Accurate, isn't? BIIB's Tysabri was withdrawn and returned. Ariad's Iclusig was withrawn and has returned now.
Iclusig is to ARIA what Tysabri to BIIB. ARIA with Iclusig has to undergo what BIIB with Tysabri has undergone. BIIB is almost $300 now.
In addition to Iclusig, Ariad has another lifesaving drug AP26113 for lung cancer patients. Ariad has a great lab that is working on still another molecule which will be announced next year as a best-in-class cancer drug targeting solid tumor.
My stepdaughter was an Ariad employee in 1998 and 1999. Dr. Harvey Berger asked his employees to work hard to build Ariad into the next Amgen.
Dr. Berger's goal is on track despite the painful setback or conspired takedown. Ariad will become the next BIIB or the next AMGN, I believe.
The post starts with "The next molecule ...". AP26113 is not the next molecule. Isn't it clear enough? Any confusion? Is any assumption necessary?
My view of ICLUSIG is basically the same as the FDA's. It should not be used as a first or second line.
Dr. Javid Moslehi, a co-director of the cardio-oncology program at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, said in an interview that if, for instance, the problems were known to occur because of excessive blood clotting from a cancer drug, then patients could also be given another medication to prevent clots. Or, if the cancer drug were causing plaque to build up in the arteries, patients might be given a statin to try to prevent it.
Thanks, br.
Grandma. Jaybe was talking about the NEXT Molecule which was referenced by Harvey, but was not announced. AP26113 is an already announced molecule for ALK+ NSCLC. Get some rest..
As everybody can see clearly, jaybe was clearly talking about AP26113 because 113 is the next molecule to Iclusig. "
BOA's AP26113 valuation was $6/share; the same BOA analyst Rachel McMinn is giving AP26113 a ZERO valuation now.
When ARIA was at $22 on 09/10/2012, she upgraded ARIA to buy from Neutral with PT $26 (AP26113 alone $6/sh).
20 days later, Rachel McMinn raised price target to $30 from $26 when the price rose to $25 on 10/1/2012.
Now, the same Rachel McMinn at BOA is giving AP26113 a ZERO/share valuation!
Bank of America Upgrades Ariad Pharmaceuticals to Buy on Risk/Reward, by David Johnson, September 10, 2012
Bank of America raised its rating on Ariad Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARIA [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) from Neutral to Buy and increased its price objective from $20 to $26.
Bank of America noted, "Despite ARIA shares +80% YTD performance, we are upgrading from Neutral to Buy based on the favorable risk/reward profile on near term data for ‘113 in lung cancer and subsequent Phase 2 expansion results, as well as our less conservative view of valuation for lead drug PON. While our new PO of $26 (up from $20) does not reflect a large premium to the current stock price, we see 15-70% upside to shares following upcoming lung cancer data (Sept 28-30). The key near term risk to ARIA is negative results for ‘113 ($6/sh of our current valuation), which seems unlikely given trial progress and management's enthusiasm."
Ariad Pharmaceuticals closed at $22.01 on Friday.
???
To be honest when I read the post I assumed we were talking about 113. Only now do I realize the original poster was speaking about what's in the lab. Sorry for the confusion.
The next molecule will be an EGFRm inhibitor...to be announced on March 5th...
The post starts with "The next molecule ...". AP26113 is not the next molecule. Isn't it clear enough? Any confusion? Is any assumption necessary?
I was quoting jaybe's post on SI with a link. Jaybe believes the 'New Molecule' is designed to address the EGFR factor
Thanks to the setback or artificial takedown, many of our friends bought or added thousands and thousands of artificially cheapened gold bags of ARIA shares.
Did you see the positive indications ariadinvestor and I saw after the Oct. 9 flash crash or plotted takedown?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95251330
My stepdaughter works for BIIB. She told me about the BIIB Tysabri story. Ninhp32809 predicted ARIA would be the next BIIB. Accurate, isn't? BIIB's Tysabri was withdrawn and returned. Ariad's Iclusig was withrawn and has returned now.
Iclusig is to ARIA what Tysabri to BIIB. ARIA with Iclusig has to undergo what BIIB with Tysabri has undergone. BIIB is almost $300 now.
My stepdaughter was an Ariad employee in 1998 and 1999. Dr. Harvey Berger asked his employees to work hard to build Ariad into the next Amgen.
Dr. Berger's goal is on track despite the painful setback or conspired takedown.
The next molecule will be an EGFRm inhibitor...to be announced on March 5th...
After spending time with the patent (see link) I'm convinced the next molecule will be a potent irreversible EGFR inhibitor for NSCLC population resistant to 1st gen erlotinib or gefinitib. This will be a true 3rd gen drug, more potent than 2nd gen drugs Afatinib and Dacomitinib, particularly against resistant mutations L858R and T790M, and with broader mutation profile than competing 3rd gen pipeline candidates CO-1686 and AZ9291. Patent identifies 16,000-32,000 worldwide patient pool but this is just a placeholder limited to NSCLC. Note Ariad previously identified patient pool of 19,000 for '113 in T790M alone.
I anticipate pre-clinical data presentation at AACR April 5-9, with company press release around date of abstract publication online on March 5th. (Pona and '113 were announced at AACR).
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29299615
Jesspro has a very good idea:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95248959
We'll make more money if it hits 2.5 first. Well, as long as your not holding right now.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94886387
Some people are smarter than Nobel Prize winners. Rachel McMinn, Gloria, Pork and Girlfriend are the brightest. They can predict the price movement of ARIA hourly just like a weather broadcaster.
Take the advantage of the tax loss selling season and buy more the gold bags of ARIA shares. I did in 2008 and added shares at $0.81.
Years later, you will feel about your purchase at $7.36 the same way as I feel now about my purchase at $0.81 years earlier. You may even feel about yours the same as I felt about mine before the artificial takedown.
Iclusig should not be used as a 1st or 2nd line?
Ariad and doctors know about Iclusig better than anybody else. They know about it better than any expert posters including Dew, GA or even Biomaven.
My view of ICLUSIG is basically the same as the FDA's. It should not be used as a first or second line.
Dr. Javid Moslehi, a co-director of the cardio-oncology program at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, said in an interview that if, for instance, the problems were known to occur because of excessive blood clotting from a cancer drug, then patients could also be given another medication to prevent clots. Or, if the cancer drug were causing plaque to build up in the arteries, patients might be given a statin to try to prevent it.
“What we don’t want to have happen is for a good drug, ponatinib, to be killed and not given to patients,” Dr. Moslehi said.
Dew, the FDA knows more about standard criteria, per which doctors report SAEs, than the clinical trial doctors. Do you agree now?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=95021812
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94997236
Doctors know more about Iclusig the FDA and DewDiligence. Do you agree now?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94971514
-------------
Dew, please teach us about standard formats for reporting SAEs. Is a standard format more crucial than standard criteria? If so, why did the doctors report SAEs per standard criteria without mentioning any standard formats? Are the clinical trial doctors patently silly?
"Rachel McMinn makes me money very consistently as long as I buy on dips and sell her picks before the news comes. She runs updates on which one of her picks face catalysts near term, and those are the ones I usually trade (Ariad not on the list right now.)"
Gregorio_Allegri follows Rachel McMinn and listens to her according to his posts on the YMB. In the past, GA said he made money by listening to Rachel about trading biotech stocks although he agreed her calls on ARIA were not very great. Fortunately, GA started to follow ARIA earlier than Rachal, so he kept his core position on ARIA in the past. It seems that GA totally listens to Rachel McMinn now. The flash crash or plotted takedown changes people, doesn't it?
What is EGFR's value now? 0.01? If so, ALK's value must be -0.01 given Rachel McMinn believes AP26113's value is ZERO.
That price target on 113 was from when they were still ascribing value to egfr for 113. They subsequently removed it from their valuation.
BOA says AP26113 has ZERO value to Rachel McMinn's PT after the flash crash or plotted takedown.
Do you agree with BOA's MicMinn? AP26113, a lifesaving lung cancer drug, has ZERO value?
Is she a professional analyst? Her unprofessional behavior and bashing attitude at last Friday's Ariad CC were well noticed and criticized by biotech_researcher. He believes she is unprofessional and pathetic.
Do the rating and price target by such a pathetic BOA analyst make any sense?
Yes, they are the best contra indications in biotech_researcher's words.
BOA ML raised ARIA PT to $30.00 from $26.00 on 10/12/2012 when ARIA was at $25+.
In a report published Monday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch reiterated its Buy rating on Ariad Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARIA), and raised its price objective from $26.00 to $30.00.
BofA Merrill Lynch noted, “The first clinical data for ARIA's ALK/EGFRm kinase inhibitor AP26113 ('113) were presented at the ESMO meeting over the weekend in patients with advanced refractory malignancies. While '113 is in early stages of development, the response rates in patients with ALK+ non small cell lung cancer were striking (8/9 assessed patients achieved a partial response in 60mg+ dose cohorts), including patients naive and resistant to PFE's first in class inhibitor Xalkori. Notably, one patient with active ALK+ brain metastases at baseline achieved significant tumor reduction while on treatment. There is preliminary evidence of '113 activity in patients with mutated EGFR (1PR/6 assessed at 120mg+), but as expected, higher doses may be required to achieve clinically relevant activity. Tolerability to date is very good, with toxicities limited to gastrointestinal events and pneumonia, at rates that are possibly lower than Xalkori, but more data are needed to fully assess safety. Dose expansion at the 240 mg dose is ongoing and further dose escalation is possible. Based on these data we are increasing our PO from $26 to $30, to reflect increased probability of successful development of '113 for ALK+ disease, with additional upside potential for validation of EGFRm activity.”
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/10/2955195/update-bank-of-america-merrill-lynch-reiterates-buy-rati#ixzz2oUrNBeJq
I totally agree with Jesspro.
Only ARIAD management knows if Iclusig will be the drug of choice and right now their sentiment is positive.
GregorioAllegri: "My view of ICLUSIG is basically the same as the FDA's.