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KeithDust
It will be interesting to see what happens after Intel's update. Last year Intel stock dropped from $27 to $22, although I think the response might be somewhat muted this time. I think Intel is likely to trade back into the teens through the summer. AMD will probably be stuck around $6 to $8 until Q2 numbers come out. If AMD is able to raise revenues quarter over quarter, and expenses come down under 800 million as promised, AMD could break out to the $10+ area. This would especially be the case if AMD gives guidance for a break even or better Q3. One thing people need to remember with white boxes sold into China is the vast majority of those chips are on the low end because per capita income in China is under $3,000, so given that it is unlikely AMD is selling many chips into China above XP2200+. This means less of a hit to revenue.
Plus I expect about 10% growth quarter over quarter in Flash Revenue. Revenues from Opteron probably will be limited to about 20 to 25 million which could probably offset weakness in China.
kpf
It should be interesting to see what role IBM will play in all of this. I think there is a very good chance that IBM is considering acquiring AMD, if AMD were to stumble. Talk of IBM maybe building a FAB for AMD does make a person curious. It will be interesting to see if and when IBM will show it's cards. But for now it's definitely a benefit that AMD is collaborating with IBM, and I'm sure Intel isn't happy. Because if it weren't for AMD, Intel would charge more for it's chips, even in tough economic times.
greg s
sorry to disappoint you but those were not my posts. Notice the spelling is different. I suggest you read more carefully next time because you come off as arrogant, and incorrect. DO us both a favor and don't respond to my posts unless you can behave yourself. Because I won't waste my time again.
wbmw bottom line Intel didn't test enough
Intel is getting more and more famous by the day for pushing out product too soon and then having problems. AMD is putting competitive pressure on Intel and Intel is stumbling. If they keep this up AMD will eat their lunch.
wbmw
maybe you should go back and check over the past 4 years what has happened when Bank of America has downgraded or upgraded AMD. It's atrocius and I know that as fact. My sister worked for Bank of America till 2 months ago so I have had inside info on the subject.
between Itanic and Centrino, Intel shows true colors
Intel is feeling the pressure from AMD. They should be recalling the Itanic which they say to clock down to 800MHZ, and Centrino is the latest Intel product to have a problem. This is opening the door for AMD as Intel screw-ups increase. I wonder what Bank of America got for knocking AMD with that bogus report. Now tell me how they figure Intel is immediately going to be able to take back market share in Flash from AMD when contracts are not day to day. They just assume everyone will believe their lies and they put another analyst name on the article because the previous analyst, Douglas Lee has no credibility.
Intel admits Centrino flaw
09:54 Monday 2nd June 2003
John G. Spooner, CNET News.com
A problem with software can crash notebooks when they are used with a virtual private network
Chipmaker Intel acknowledged that a software incompatibility may cause problems for people trying to use a Centrino-based notebook with a virtual private network.
The flaw involving the new chip family -- which Intel said it had rigorously tested -- was mentioned in a bulletin issued this month by VPN software maker Nortel Networks. The bulletin said the issue could cause notebooks to crash and display the Windows blue screen error notice.
Intel said possible notebook malfunctions could indeed be caused by an incompatibility between the application that controls its Intel Pro Wireless 2100 module -- the wireless module from the Centrino family -- and some VPN applications. But the company said it knew about the problem and had issued a fix in a bulletin to PC makers in early March, around the time the Centrino line was unveiled.
Intel said the fix has limited the impact of any problems. The fix suggests that PC makers disable or remove a feature inside Intel PROset software -- which controls the wireless module -- called Adapter Switching, an Intel representative said.
"We are aware of an issue where in some configurations, a VPN connection with our Intel PROset software and Adapter Switching technology enabled can cause a notebook PC to not work properly," Intel spokesman Dan Francisco said. "We believe that most systems shipping today have this adaptive switching feature disabled or removed, but there will still be instances where the issue occurs."
Meanwhile, some VPN software markers, such as Nortel, have issued their own fixes. Nortel's bulletin, located on its tech support site, calls for customers to uninstall the Intel PROset software and use Windows to control the wireless module instead.
Intel said the problem is only with software and not inherent in the Centrino chips. It also isn't specific to one PC maker or one type of VPN software. As a result, Francisco referred notebook users who believe they might be experiencing a problem to tech support at the notebook manufacturer from which they purchased their machine.
Francisco was unable to say whether Intel was working on an update for the Intel PROset application or, if so, when that update would come out.
greg s
I guess I should have explained that better. The other analyst is not the one doing the analysis. Douglas Lee is, I know that for a fact because my sister worked with Bank of America up till 2 months ago. The bottom line is Bank of America has no credibility whatsoever. I will bet anyone that AMD's earnings will prove they made the wrong call. I talked to someone yesterday that said Bank of America is shorting AMD right now so they lack credibility in my book based on that and their track record.
sgolds, I agree summer will lower markets
The Summer is a time of seasonal weakness that is well documented. Many investors and people in the financial industry are vacationing during the summer which drags on the market. Also with current Index valuations, people are starting to assess the true value of stocks and whether or not prices may have gotten too high, without a significant growth in earnings. One trend I have seen year after year is the market usually puts in it's last, and often lowest bottom in early October before Q3 earnings come out. Then stocks rally into the Holiday season. Last year the rally ended at Thanksgiving, other years it typically ends around Christmas.
The major indexes typically experience 20%+ gains in that period, and thats a very strong trend. I like to call it Christmas Bliss. Even last year with the threat of war the SP500, DJ30, and Nasdaq were all up 20%+ from October 9 till November 29. I would not be suprised to see the DJ30 back under 8000 this summer or ealy fall, and the SP500 under 850.
sgolds, I agree summer will lower markets
The Summer is a time of seasonal weakness that is well documented. Many investors and people in the financial industry are vacationing during the summer which drags on the market. Also with current Index valuations, people are starting to assess the true value of stocks and whether or not prices may have gotten too high, without a significant growth in earnings. One trend I have seen year after year is the market usually puts in it's last, and often lowest bottom in early October before Q3 earnings come out. Then stocks rally into the Holiday season. Last year the rally ended at Thanksgiving, other years it typically ends around Christmas.
The major indexes typically experience 20%+ gains in that period, and thats a very stron trend. I like to call it Christmas Bliss. Even last year with the threat of war the SP500, DJ30, and Nasdaq were all up 20%+ from October 9 till November 29. I would not be suprised to see the DY30 back under 8000 this summer or ealy fall, and the SP500 under 850.
KeithDust2000
The analyst which they fail to mention is Douglas Lee, and he has a horrible track record on AMD. As far as supposed falling prices for microprocessors, they obviously assume everyone is stupid. For one thing there is much greater availability of higher end AMD desktop chips (2800+ and higher) this quarter than there was last quarter. Also the prices they show as retail are not what the OEM's pay, that's what you or I would pay at retail, unless of course we look at pricewatch. Also, rebates have dried up for AMD chips so there is no additional $50 off per chip like last quarter. ASP's last quarter were only around $70. I guarantee AMD will meet or beat that in Q2 due to a better mix.
As far as flash is concerned Intel will not be able to win that business back quickly due to the nature of the contracts. Intel cut their own throat when they jacked up prices by 20%. AMD's new Flash business/customers are now locked in via their contacts for the additional flash memory. Intel is stuck till those contracts run out, which is typically a year or more.
The bottom line is Douglas Lee and Bank of America are just knocking AMD so they can get a better price before the second half run-up. Merril Lynch is known for doing this as well, which has been proven in recent years by the fact that when they have downgraded AMD, they have added to their position in AMD. You can't trust the analyst community, you must due your own due diligence because nothing has really changed despite the 1.4 Billion settlement, which was nothing but a slap on the wrist. Happy trading.
AMD gloom and doom unwarranted
I see people are getting worried about AMD's Q2, but I would like to point out that the Bank of AMerica analyst has a losy track record on AMD. AMD is going to see another decent gain in Flash revenues, and AMD's Microprocessor revenue will be flat to sligtly up due Opteron sales and more XP2800+ and higher chips being available to boost ASP's. All this talk about dollar weakness is meaningless because all major companies hedge on currencies to cover themselves in situations like this. I expect AMD Q2 revenue to be close to 750 million which will only be a .12 loss. Peope are getting themselves worked up for nothing.
Any guesses as to how much flash business AMD will due in Q2, as well as Q3 and Q4. Hector talks about a possible shortage by year end, and Austin is supposedly running at capacity. My guess is that AMD will make at least 250 million on Flash in Q2, possibly rising above 300 million in Q4.
wbmw
That's what they said the fix was and nothing you say will change that. I suggest you go on the Intel board because you are obviously nothing but a basher and that is not tolerated on this site.
When will Intel wisen up and recall Itanic2
Intel can spin things all they want, but the fiasco that is going on with Itanic2 is doing significant harm to Intel, especially with Opteron now available. I love how there fix is to tell users of the 900MHZ and 1GHZ chip to simply clock those chips down to 800MHX. Intel has spent several billion dollars on Itanic in development and they have nothing to show for it. They only actually sold about 3000 Itanics between 2001 and 2002. News of 30,000+ Itanics being sold last year is false. Most of those chips were given away for companyies to test with. Now given a clear alternative in Opteron, AMD will take business away from Intel in that almost nobody wants to touch Itanic now. It's funny watching Otinelli squirm, and Intel's Itanic shown for the most over-rated chip of all time.
It's going to be fun watching AMD continue chiping away at Intel, and taking back market share again in Q2. With all that money Intel can't make a better chip, I guess that rumor about Intel engineers using 100 dollar bills as toilet paper isn't that far fetched.
Elmer,
Yes there is profits there, it's just this subzero character paints things as if the PDA business is the best business to be in, which it is not, at least not in comparison to the chips going into PC's and servers. If PDA's were such a high margin business, 3COM would be trading a lot higher than $5. I see AMD buying Alchemy as more of a defensive measure to make sure they get in on the PDA market. Whether it will be profitable for AMD remains to be seen.
subzero pdamarket not very profitable for Intel
I will once again suggest you go through Intel earnings report and see how little the PDA business contributes to Intel in terms of revenue and profits. The margins are just not there for PDA processors, it is a lower margin business than for PC's. As for your comment on blithering boob you show how little you know because you know nothing of what Intel's margins are in there different lines of business. Also you wouldn't throw insults if you had to do it in person.
subzero
Intel is not making huge profits/success in the area where AMD bought Alchemy. I suggest you go through the earnings report and you will see that regular microprocessors are where the money is. The PDA business has much lower margins and is not a huge success for Intel. And as far as monoplistic abuses, what do you call Intel reps calling up AMD's Opteron launch partners and asking them "Do you need to be there", or "Do you want to be there". Intel is nothing but a bunch of scumbags and one of these days the axe of justice will fall on them.
It's AMD's time to shine now
It all comes down to how well AMD delivers Opteron/Athlon64.
My expectation is that AMD will probably get around 40 million in additional revenue in Q2 from Opteron, and possibly close to double that in Q3. Athlon64 in Q3 will have very little revenues in Q3 but will hopefully add significantly in Q4. I expect AMD to show a loss of 20 cents or less in Q2, and return to profitability in Q3. If there are no delays with Athlon64 AMD could have a very profitable Chistmas/Q4. Remember that breakeven is under 800 million going forward.
ephud Intel did have problem with .13
Remember the 1.13GHZ P3 which had to be recalled. Also Intel had problems getting volume out initially which is well documented. Something obviously was not right behind the scenes at Intel, or there would not have been volume problems or the 1.13GHZ P3 recall. Also Intel has no mention of Prescott on it's website on a 2003 roadmap. My guess is strained silicon and low k, as well as heat dissipation are the issues facing Prescott. Trying to pull everything off at once only makes it more difficult. I also think that a lot of the problems AMD experienced with heat issues going from .18 to .13, will affect Intel in going from .13 to .09. This is because the tendency has been for P4's to be the size of Athlons at the previous larger die shrink (.13 P4 = .18 Athlon in terms of surface area).
coulda shoulda
I expect AMd to be able to have at least 10% of the server market, up from 5% by the fourth quarter. I could see 20 to 25% being possible by the end of 2004.
wbmw
The 19% number is for worldwide pc marketshare. This then does not figure in Servers, or chips that go into X-Box. In the server market AMD had only 5% marketshare worldwide, and obviously 0% when it comes to X-Box.
Gateway is going to have a hard time surviving anyways
Gateway was only a short term or PR loss. The reality is that Gateway is struggling to stay afloat, with competitors taking sales awy from gateway, especially white box makers. Bottom line is if Opteron and Athlon 64 are successful, AMD will be very profitable.
Thanks for the link
I was getting tired of COMMON_SENSE and all his complaining on Raging Bull. All he ever does is complain. He hasn't posted on topic on Raging Bull in at least 6 months. Hopefully this board can be a little more civil.