Monday, June 02, 2003 12:59:22 PM
The Summer is a time of seasonal weakness that is well documented. Many investors and people in the financial industry are vacationing during the summer which drags on the market. Also with current Index valuations, people are starting to assess the true value of stocks and whether or not prices may have gotten too high, without a significant growth in earnings. One trend I have seen year after year is the market usually puts in it's last, and often lowest bottom in early October before Q3 earnings come out. Then stocks rally into the Holiday season. Last year the rally ended at Thanksgiving, other years it typically ends around Christmas.
The major indexes typically experience 20%+ gains in that period, and thats a very stron trend. I like to call it Christmas Bliss. Even last year with the threat of war the SP500, DJ30, and Nasdaq were all up 20%+ from October 9 till November 29. I would not be suprised to see the DY30 back under 8000 this summer or ealy fall, and the SP500 under 850.
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