Oil has yet to bottom, WAKE UP!
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Crude inventories UP 11.4 million barrels
Crude stocks at Cushing fell by 664K barrels
http://news.forexlive.com/!/american-petroleum-institute-api-crude-oil-inventories-bbls-20160126
Looks like a double top on the charts.
lol, yeah cnbc says oil pops on chatter there may be a deal in the works between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut production. Then the next day Saudi Arabia says it will not cut production and falls again. Oil popped today on Hype, short the rally's.
4:30 API :)
Damn China plunged 6.4%
Nope still have my 600 DWTI.
Exactly what happened today. Oils turned from Bullish to Bearish very violently. Clear as day continuation of Bearish market in oil. Unfortunately seems many retail investor were suckers for the head fake.
My next target level is $25, probably another dead cat bounce at that level. We'll see...
Perfect shooting star on the daily when you combine Fridays and Mondays candles. Very Bearish:
The shooting star is also a bearish engulfing signal because it fully engulfs the trading range of the previous candle.
In the following example, the Shooting Star is followed by a Bearish Engulfing patter. The double signal is more powerful.
http://elliottwavenuggets.com/forex/shooting-star-candlestick-signal/
Starting to plunge again...
Sub $20's and DWTI would be in the $700+ range, UWTI would be around $1
Expecting another Bearish inventory report:
US production has gone up every week for the last 7 weeks. US Producers pumping as much oil as possible to service debt.
Over $400 DWTI this week :)
Once the low in oil gets taken out lookout below, it will ignite a significant plunge. Sub $20 oil this month is a very likely possibility.
I also expect UWTI to drop below $1 on this move. We'll see...
Obviously today's price action is not what happened in August. Nothing that's happened in the last 3 months can be compared to anytime in the past.
Everybody was saying Winter Storm increased heating oil demand.
What about gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. This winter storm over the weekend grounded planes and put travel to basically a halt on Saturday...
OK so I went all in 600 DWTI prematurely, but this short covering rally was total BS, just another dead cat bounce. Back to $30 in short order. I'd say within 2 weeks we'll be back to $27.56 :)
I called BS on this Rally to $30, if it does manage to eek up a little more, doubt it will last. 600 DWTI, all in.
We get a Bearish Inventory report, US Production has increased every week for the last 7 weeks, Iraq boosted production, USD Index is strong 99.29, nothing really bullish at all.
We'll see tomorrow...
Only tracks oil. UWTI has absolutely no effect on the price of oil.
Looks like oil wants to test $30. I doubt any rally will hold, it will turn out to be a dead cat bounce.
All in 600 DWTI Now.
Adding to DWTI Here.
EIA Report is at 11AM today.
Crude goes to $23, DWTI would be at least $700
EIA Report could easily drop oil to were February expired(another $1.5) if EIA confirms API report or it's worse. I'm also interested in seeing what US production was last week. We'll see...
API: Build of 4.6 million barrels
Stocks at Cushing up 63K barrels
http://news.forexlive.com/!/oil-american-petroleum-institute-api-data-inventories-bbls-20160120
I'm that confident in my trade. I don't think we have hit bottom yet and oil rallying to $29 was too tempting for me not to get the DWTI's back.
I think the rally had more to do with the February contract expiring.
So far so good, we'll see...
API, 4:30PM
EIA ia due out by 11AM
I call BS on this EOD Rally. $29 just acted as solid resistance again. Awaiting the API/EIA Report. We'll see....
I'm Buying back the DWTI's I sold earlier today. This rally will fall apart once the API Report comes out.
They have their neighboring counties(Kuwait, Oman...) that follow whatever they do, so Saudi's effectively control OPEC.
They don't have the power in OPEC to have an emergency meeting only the Saudi's can do that. Venezuela, Nigeria, and the other weaker nations can B***h all they want, not gonna happen.
They wouldn't have brought us to this point if they didn't intend on destroying the US shale industry and other high cost producers. Saudi's are taking significant steps to weather the storm. They have the finances to last several years at these levels. It would only take tops a month or so at these prices or lower to level the US Shale Industry. Why stop now?
Brace Yourselves for the API/EIA Report, doubt it will be positive...
Just sold 25 DWTI, 450 left in the tank. Next Sell order 25 DWTI @475
$1.58 UWTI... Falling Knife.
Links? Interesting to see how he came up with that.
Yep still a falling knife. Iran and Saudi's will kill oil until someone flinches or the US shale craters.
You guys still don't understand the contract roll over.
Your getting the February contract mixed up with the March Contract.
UWTI is 100% weighted on March Contract:
http://www.velocitysharesetns.com/uwti
Oil is actually crashing now...
February Crude Contract
March Crude Contract
DWTI is over $415 and UWTI is $1.71 right now on the Bid price.
February Contract is $28.28
March Contract is 29.46
Right Now.
UWTI is 100% on March Contract. There is no magical gap up, February contract expires tomorrow.
The rollover happens every month.
It's generally not a good sign for the next day when oil tanks into the EOD. Bears are in full control and doesn't looks like any real support at these levels. We'll see...
It could happen, but doesn't make a difference for UWTI in terms of price action.
If UWTI was not an ETN that tracked oil, it would look like a biotech company that failed a few major milestones, reverse split, and headed towards penny stock land again.
January 21, 2016 Thursday 11:00 a.m.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.cfm