Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
OCUL
[popcorn]Trading halt with the stock up 24% during the closing minutes.[/popcorn]
Nice data present.
APLS
Ran across the below analyst comments without attribution to source. It would suggest scenario #3 can be distinguished from #2 and may be in play. No position.
https://twitter.com/whatprobability/status/1575540550064742400
BHVN
8-k out today expecting closing on Oct 3.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1935979/000162828022025588/biohavenltd-form8xk92722.htm
I don't think anyone was expecting earth-shattering results. They were well within the range of reasonable expectation for the trial design and prior trial results, correct?
The potential value of the treatment can be and will be argued, lol, but not by me.
PHG - oopsie mask recall
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/certain-philips-respironics-masks-bipap-cpap-machines-recalled-due-safety-issue-magnets-may-affect
So it remains to be seen if this affects other manufacturers with magnetic clips, but as I said before I don't know the relative magnetic strengths (or to what extent it matters.)
This does look bad, much worse than the press release yesterday.
[PHG]
Meh. Others are using magnets as well. The Respironics may be stronger - I have no idea. I participated in a trial with a magnetic closure mask in development many years back and was given a similar but less complete cautionary list.
Obviously a big deal to those affected but not a big deal to PHG this time IMHO.
PHG
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/philips-subsidiary-pay-over-24-million-alleged-false-claims-caused-respironics-respiratory
Another day, another 24 million dollar fine. Not the first time they have been caught and fined for kickbacks. Cost of doing business, I guess.
Will be getting, sooner rather than later.
PHG
Another day, another Respironics recall. Now down in the 16's. Just here for the popcorn, not touching it one way or another.
A third view is that assigning bullish or bearish to ENTA is overreacting. To wit, this thread:
How should a trial that is underpowered be reported? Here is Washington Post reporting on Paxlovid trial in NEJM:
— Peter Suzman (@Biomaven) August 25, 2022
"Pfizer’s COVID-19 pill appears to provide little or no benefit for younger adults, while still reducing the risk of hospitalization and death for high-risk seniors"
PHG
I've watched this from the sidelines since the beginning of the Respironics recalls. Big company with lots of safe business and it took a 25% haircut to 45ish on the recalls seeming to stabilize there for 5-6 months. Badly mishandling the recall, potential issues with the replacement units that have been sent out (what few they have) and the CEO to resign before his term expires. Now over the last 8-9 months the stock has slid to 18ish.
It's amazing how things can fall apart at a seemingly well run conglomerate over one issue that should have been containable - even if costly to do so. The pandemic did add to component shortages, but still... it was the coverups and failures to respond appropriately that caused most of the problems. Compounding.
Which is a reasonable view.
It is not clear how much of your position sizing adjustments (aka trading profits) have come from mechanical portfolio adjustments and how much from valuation - nor does it matter. Saying a stock worth holding (or buying) is a stock worth buying (or holding) is an overly simplistic tautology when building, exiting, or trading around a position based on valuation.
Congrats on the trading profits.
The only point (if there is one) is that "your money" being on a particular drug in development is more a matter of you having already been invested rather than an impetus for buying or an actual preference. It matters more to some than to others.
Yes - although I did make an error on the price comp for XBI - right day wrong year. Over the same period XBI had a much smaller loss (crudely 25% to 50%).
The points all remain the same even if the specific example is less compelling. SPY is up (crudely) 65% over the same period with low fees, a beta of 1, and regular distributions.
Which brings up the point of active management versus an index. By relying on the fund to do your research for you you also have to live with their decisions. Fair or not, HQL peaked in 2015 (!!!) having gone from about 31 to about 13.5 over that period. Over the same time frame XBI is up from about 60 to about 67.5, as a comparison.
Obviously one can pick different time periods, etceteras. I'm not arguing that one or the other is right for anyone or that there are no other options. There are many arguments that can be made on all sides - I just thought to point out a few of them. EOS.
NNVC
Worse. The odds they get it as far as Phase 1 are essentially zero based on past performance.
Yet they are still in contract. From the FGEN side there was some language on their call that indicated discussions were still ongoing and that AZN had certain contractual obligations.
So it remains to be seen. It would not be surprising for them to exit the US market, however there is still application in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and other non CKD anemia. I don't see them having an immediate and costless exit.
Dumping the US rights looked like an obvious decision, and trying to use the material breach clause to accelerate the termination tells me they thought International was obvious as well, in spite of applications in process at EMA and elsewhere.
Complete write-off. I haven't found Vada sales numbers by MTPC in Japan (haven't looked that hard) but they haven't been good enough to make them easy to find.
Yeah, they were off about 20% but that is only about a dime, so....
As an afterthought - it remains to be seen what Astra does with the US rights for Roxa. Doing well in China and Astellas is getting approvals in it's territories.
BHVN
Sheep of Wall Street
@Biohazard3737
Hope Favus' track record holds with $BHVN.
Remember his calls on $GWPH and $IMMU very well before they were acquired at unbelievable premiums.
10:25 AM · Apr 28, 2022·Twitter Web App
AMRN
Is the company viable at all with the IP they have? Seems like they have had the short end of the stick from day one.
Indeed.
Price is down another ~20% from the point you questioned the enterprise value.
One could make the argument that the current share price is largely being supported by short covering. It had been a very popular short. I'm now seeing borrow available.
I think you may have missed looking at the actual data that AKBA presented. Whatever class effect there may be, AKBA and FGEN shared specific issues.
I have no opinion on the GSK drug.
The point had to do with the process of analysis at a certain time window rather than a general dislike of of those companies at a random time, no matter who you choose to follow.
If the intent of your post was to say that no company needs to be invested in, perhaps I misunderstood by how it was written.
AKBA
What I found interesting is a subset of bio-twitter finding the FGEN CRL appropriate and/or expected which also thought AKBA had a reasonable chance at approval.
No matter what your feelings on the FGEN data set and the 'cleanliness' thereof - AKBA stood no chance.
"Paxlovid"