Parisians Find a City in a State of Shock

AH UWTI was real jaggy. 7.08 low to end back 7.18 near Close. Hard tell if this juices oil. It would IF Mideast supply becomes harder to get.
French jets in Syria keep using the stuff but the bombings there like in Beirut go on, and now more in West.
Super liberals call for "leave Mideast to its own devices".
Don't know since this is a whole new game. Uncle Ho (Vietnam) trained in Paris but never attacked it. What's going on now requires a new approach.
Kind of a fresh set of factors given the level of armed power, planning, and intent. Feels already like beyond the nationalism conflicts, more of a regional war. Lot depends on what the French, Brits, Germans can/will muster. The other. players also a key like Belgium, Italy, Spain, Nordics, Turkey. This isn't like an attack on a Lebanon city, Israel or something. Shot right at heart of West. London already aware of this concept but Berlin has been strangely silent. Eye on them for any real direction. We'll see.
--------------------

By Max Colchester , Noemie Bisserbe and Inti Landauro
PARIS--Parisians woke up Saturday to a city in shock after one of the bloodiest attacks on French soil in decades.
Schools, museums and roads were closed after the series of overnight assaults by terrorists left at least 127 people dead. Police sirens continued to be heard across the city as officials cordoned off streets and cleaned up the aftermath of shootouts in several different parts of the French capital. Major department stores were shut down as were well known tourist sites including the Eiffel Tower --closed until further notice--the Louvre museum and amusement park Disneyland Paris.
The scale of the attacks have continued to sink in. A crowd of neighbors, tourists and journalists stood outside the Carillon and Le Petit Cambodge, two restaurants where at least a dozen people were killed Friday by several gunman. Many stood in tears. Some left flowers and candles on the sidewalk.
Alexandra Damien , 30, was supposed to meet five friends at the Carillon bar Friday night but changed her plans at the last minute. Two of her friends were killed during the attack, the other three were seriously injured and are now at the hospital, she said.
"One moment you're having a sip of beer, and the next you're dead," Ms. Damien. "We can no longer live freely here," she said.
In Paris's 11th arrondissement where over a dozen people were shot in the Belle Equipe bar, a cleanup operation was under way. Locals negotiated with police to get access to roads as they tried to go about their routine Saturday shopping. Schools and gymnasiums in the area remained shut. In the background men with high-powered hoses sprayed the street outside the bar.
"It could have been anyone on that terrace," Yannis Marigo , 43, who lives just around the corner from where the shooting took place. "It is unbelievable."
A round-the-block line formed at a nearby blood-donation center. Dozens of people waited Saturday afternoon in front of the St. Louis hospital, in Northern Paris , to give their blood to help hospitals treat people injured last night during the attacks. As well as fatalities, Friday nights attacks left hundreds injured, with scores of them in a serious condition.
At the Bataclan concert hall, where the terrorists caused the worst carnage, neighbors gathered across the street, surveying the leaf-strewn avenue and the forest of TV trucks that arrived overnight.
"Everyone is torn apart," said 38 year-old Brigitte Yassi , who was in her apartment around the corner when she heard the shooting start.
Bataclan's bar was a popular hangout that enlivened the whole area, neighbors said. One man arrived at the scene in a bicycle, pulling a piano behind him. He played "Imagine," the John Lennon song, and left.
As the light began to fade, more than 100 people gathered in La Republique, the square where thousands met following the Charlie Hebdo attacks this year, to pay their respects and light candles. The government had banned large gatherings for safety reasons and police asked for them to disperse. But the crowd continued to grow through the afternoon. "For me this place is symbolic," said Ben Mitchell , a 24-year-old student.
Across the city, many major attractions, schools and shops went into lockdown. Officials also ordered libraries, schools and swimming pools to stay closed. Museums across the Paris region closed their doors and major sports events were called off.
The Louvre , the most visited museum in Paris , had opened normally on Saturday, but closed down on the request of Culture Ministry , said a spokeswoman.
"Attendance was particularly low anyway," said Sophie Grange , from the museum's press office. All the venues of the Louvre will be shut, including the Jardin des Tuileries, the park located between the museum and Concorde square.
Disneyland Paris , the Walt Disney Co. resort east of the French capital, closed as a sign of respect for those who died. "In light of the recent tragic events in France and in support of our community and the victims of these horrendous attacks, Disneyland Paris has decided not to open its theme parks on Saturday," the park said.
Many large shops in Paris also stayed shut, including the department store Printemps in the heart of the city, where the animated holiday display in the window contrasted with the darkness of the store.
Luxury stores along the glitzy rue de Faubourg St. Honoré which runs past by the Élysée Palace were closed and access was restricted around certain city streets. Two of Paris' biggest shopping malls--the Forum des Halles and Carrousel du Louvre, which is located under the Louvre museum--were also shut. A spokesman for the malls' owner, Unibail-Rodamco, said they were closed on the recommendation of the police.
The assaults are the second time this year Paris has come under attack by marauding gunmen. In January, the capital was hit by attackers claiming allegiance to Islamic State and an al Qaeda affiliate who killed 17 people, including many at the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.
Despite the shock of the latest attacks, many neighborhoods, including Paris's picturesque Montmartre area, remained lively on Saturday as people continued to go about their daily lives.
Residents remained divided whether to go out on Saturday evening as a show of defiance or to stay holed up at home. The area around Rue de Charonne is known for its bars and nightlife.
"We have to continue to live," said Fabien Sannier , a 27-year-old who lives in the area. "Tonight I am going out and having a drink with friends."
-- Stacy Meichtry and Ambroise Ecorcheville
contributed to this article.
Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com, Noemie Bisserbe at noemie.bisserbe@wsj.com and Inti Landauro at inti.landauro@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-14-15 1327ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Parisians Find a City in a State of Shock

By Max Colchester , Noemie Bisserbe and Inti Landauro
PARIS--Parisians woke up Saturday to a city in shock after one of the bloodiest attacks on French soil in decades.
Schools, museums and roads were closed after the series of overnight assaults by terrorists left at least 127 people dead. Police sirens continued to be heard across the city as officials cordoned off streets and cleaned up the aftermath of shootouts in several different parts of the French capital. Major department stores were shut down as were well known tourist sites including the Eiffel Tower --closed until further notice--the Louvre museum and amusement park Disneyland Paris.
The scale of the attacks have continued to sink in. A crowd of neighbors, tourists and journalists stood outside the Carillon and Le Petit Cambodge, two restaurants where at least a dozen people were killed Friday by several gunman. Many stood in tears. Some left flowers and candles on the sidewalk.
Alexandra Damien , 30, was supposed to meet five friends at the Carillon bar Friday night but changed her plans at the last minute. Two of her friends were killed during the attack, the other three were seriously injured and are now at the hospital, she said.
"One moment you're having a sip of beer, and the next you're dead," Ms. Damien. "We can no longer live freely here," she said.
In Paris's 11th arrondissement where over a dozen people were shot in the Belle Equipe bar, a cleanup operation was under way. Locals negotiated with police to get access to roads as they tried to go about their routine Saturday shopping. Schools and gymnasiums in the area remained shut. In the background men with high-powered hoses sprayed the street outside the bar.
"It could have been anyone on that terrace," Yannis Marigo , 43, who lives just around the corner from where the shooting took place. "It is unbelievable."
A round-the-block line formed at a nearby blood-donation center. Dozens of people waited Saturday afternoon in front of the St. Louis hospital, in Northern Paris , to give their blood to help hospitals treat people injured last night during the attacks. As well as fatalities, Friday nights attacks left hundreds injured, with scores of them in a serious condition.
At the Bataclan concert hall, where the terrorists caused the worst carnage, neighbors gathered across the street, surveying the leaf-strewn avenue and the forest of TV trucks that arrived overnight.
"Everyone is torn apart," said 38 year-old Brigitte Yassi , who was in her apartment around the corner when she heard the shooting start.
Bataclan's bar was a popular hangout that enlivened the whole area, neighbors said. One man arrived at the scene in a bicycle, pulling a piano behind him. He played "Imagine," the John Lennon song, and left.
As the light began to fade, more than 100 people gathered in La Republique, the square where thousands met following the Charlie Hebdo attacks this year, to pay their respects and light candles. The government had banned large gatherings for safety reasons and police asked for them to disperse. But the crowd continued to grow through the afternoon. "For me this place is symbolic," said Ben Mitchell , a 24-year-old student.
Across the city, many major attractions, schools and shops went into lockdown. Officials also ordered libraries, schools and swimming pools to stay closed. Museums across the Paris region closed their doors and major sports events were called off.
The Louvre , the most visited museum in Paris , had opened normally on Saturday, but closed down on the request of Culture Ministry , said a spokeswoman.
"Attendance was particularly low anyway," said Sophie Grange , from the museum's press office. All the venues of the Louvre will be shut, including the Jardin des Tuileries, the park located between the museum and Concorde square.
Disneyland Paris , the Walt Disney Co. resort east of the French capital, closed as a sign of respect for those who died. "In light of the recent tragic events in France and in support of our community and the victims of these horrendous attacks, Disneyland Paris has decided not to open its theme parks on Saturday," the park said.
Many large shops in Paris also stayed shut, including the department store Printemps in the heart of the city, where the animated holiday display in the window contrasted with the darkness of the store.
Luxury stores along the glitzy rue de Faubourg St. Honoré which runs past by the Élysée Palace were closed and access was restricted around certain city streets. Two of Paris' biggest shopping malls--the Forum des Halles and Carrousel du Louvre, which is located under the Louvre museum--were also shut. A spokesman for the malls' owner, Unibail-Rodamco, said they were closed on the recommendation of the police.
The assaults are the second time this year Paris has come under attack by marauding gunmen. In January, the capital was hit by attackers claiming allegiance to Islamic State and an al Qaeda affiliate who killed 17 people, including many at the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.
Despite the shock of the latest attacks, many neighborhoods, including Paris's picturesque Montmartre area, remained lively on Saturday as people continued to go about their daily lives.
Residents remained divided whether to go out on Saturday evening as a show of defiance or to stay holed up at home. The area around Rue de Charonne is known for its bars and nightlife.
"We have to continue to live," said Fabien Sannier , a 27-year-old who lives in the area. "Tonight I am going out and having a drink with friends."
-- Stacy Meichtry and Ambroise Ecorcheville
contributed to this article.
Write to Max Colchester at max.colchester@wsj.com, Noemie Bisserbe at noemie.bisserbe@wsj.com and Inti Landauro at inti.landauro@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-14-15 1327ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

TPH&Co: Why The Oil Market Is Tighter Than You Think
In this latest installment of the Video Research Series, Tudor Pickering Holt & Company Managing Director and Head of Macro Research, David Pursell discusses bullish oil views based on analysis that global crude oil markets are nearly 'balanced'.
Take w/ grain of salt.....

http://oilpro.com/post/20056/tphco-why-market-tighter-than-you-think?utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_term=2015-11-13&utm_content=Feature_1_txt

IEA: Record oil stockpiles may further weaken prices
Nov 13 2015, 04:54 ET | By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
According to the International Energy Agency, oil stockpiles have swollen to a record of almost 3B barrels because of strong production in OPEC and elsewhere, potentially deepening the rout in prices.This "massive cushion has inflated" even as the global oil market adjusts to $50/bbl oil, the agency noted in its November report.Still, the IEA predicts that supplies outside the OPEC will decline next year by the most since 1992 as low crude prices take their toll on the U.S. shale industry.Crude futures are now trading at $41.88/bbl, after falling over 4% on Thursday.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2927766-iea-record-oil-stockpiles-may-further-weaken-prices?ifp=0

could cheap oil have been designed to hurt ISIS?

Not to be too deep into what Great Powers have going on but this is Lawrence's "Seven Pillars of Wisdom" time again, no?
I mean the logic suggests low prices contain the opposition. Imagine what they could do with $100 or $200 oil this time.
So until now they kept price low. But laws of economics would suggest that attacks on oil fields would cause higher prices (less supply)??
Thus wth going on? Why risk run up in price so opponent can get higher income from what it controls. Oh well it's beyond me at this point.

-------------
http://tinyurl.com/qfar245 NYT front page

ERBIL, Iraq — The United States and its allies have sharply increased their airstrikes against the sprawling oil fields that the Islamic State controls in eastern Syria in an effort to disrupt one of the terrorist group’s main sources of revenue, American officials said this week.

For months, the United States has been frustrated by the Islamic State’s ability to keep producing and exporting oil — what Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter recently called “a critical pillar of the financial infrastructure” of the group — which generates about $40 million a month, or nearly $500 million a year, according to Treasury Department estimates.

<more>

Layoffs Watch ’15: Credit Suisse Tells Fixed Income Traders To Pack Up Their Things

Dealbreaker Dot Com. NEWS
By BESS LEVIN Nov 12, 2015 at 3:52 PM
The aforementioned “significant” cuts new CEO Tidjane Thiam said he wants to see, as part of an effort to save 3.5 billion francs, started to go down across the pond today.

Credit Suisse Group AG began trimming its fixed-income business in London, according to people familiar with the matter. High-yield bond trader Stephen Snizek, hedge fund salesman Charlie Breitzke and credit strategists Marco Gironi and Christian Schwarz are among those leaving the firm, according to two people, who asked not to be identified because the details are private. The Swiss lender is laying off about 200 traders in London as Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam seeks to cut thousands of jobs worldwide and restructure its trading and advisory services, a person with knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday. Most of the jobs are being eliminated in the bank’s fixed-income unit, the person said.

Fischer comments tonight, softer

"From the standpoint of the outlook, this transience means that some of the forces holding down inflation in 2015-- particularly those due to a stronger dollar and lower energy prices--will begin to fade next year," Mr. Fischer said.

---------------
A strong dollar is restraining U.S. inflation and exports, justifying a slower pace of interest-rate increases, but on balance the U.S. economy is riding out the effects fairly well, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Thursday.
"While the dollar's appreciation and foreign weakness have been a sizable shock, the U.S. economy appears to be weathering them reasonably well, notwithstanding their large effects on certain sectors of the economy heavily exposed to international trade," Mr. Fischer said in remarks prepared for delivery at a Fed research conference in Washington . " Monetary policy has played a key role in achieving these outcomes through deferring liftoff relative to what was expected a little over a year ago."
He noted Fed policy makers have lowered their projections for the likely path of the central bank's benchmark federal-funds rate since the dollar began its ascent in mid-2014. "This greater degree of monetary accommodation seems appropriate given the adverse effects on U.S. aggregate demand coming from the rise in the dollar, an associated weakening of foreign economic prospects, and other developments that have restrained spending and kept inflation undesirably low," Mr. Fischer said.
In September, the Fed decided to delay raising short-term interest rates that have been pinned near zero since December 2008 . The dollar strengthening against other major world currencies was one worry on officials' minds; their Sept. 17 policy statement said that "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." That line was dropped from the Fed's next statement on Oct. 28 , a sign those worries had faded somewhat.
Mr. Fischer noted Thursday that the Fed's latest policy statement signaled a possible rate increase at the Dec. 15- 16 meeting, "though the outcome will depend on the [rate-setting Federal Open Market] Committee's assessment of the progress--realized and expected--that has been made toward meeting our goals of maximum employment and price stability. Of course, as policymakers, we must always be vigilant to events unfolding differently than we expect, and we must be ready to react accordingly."
Mr. Fischer said the dollar's rise since July 2014 has been "large, though not unprecedented by historical standards." He said the appreciation has been partially driven by a decline in foreign interest rates relative to U.S. rates, as well as "heightened concern about the global outlook and an associated decrease in investor risk tolerance."
A stronger dollar reduces U.S. exports by making them more expensive for foreign customers, restraining overall economic growth, and Mr. Fischer said there is "good reason" to expect the drag "will persist well into next year." A stronger dollar also puts downward pressure on import prices, but he described the effect on U.S. inflation as "probably more transient" than the impact on economic growth.
"From the standpoint of the outlook, this transience means that some of the forces holding down inflation in 2015-- particularly those due to a stronger dollar and lower energy prices--will begin to fade next year," Mr. Fischer said.
Mr. Fischer isn't the only official at the U.S. central bank weighing the effects of the dollar on the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy. Fed governor Lael Brainard , in a speech last week, warned that "the feedback loop between ... expectations of divergence between the United States and major trade partners and financial tightening in the United States means that material restraint to U.S. conditions is already in place." She added, "Looking ahead, a further downgrade of foreign growth prospects could pose downside risks to the U.S. outlook."
Normally, Ms. Brainard added, "policy in the United States could ease smoothly in response to signs that spillovers from developments abroad were restraining activity or inflation in the United States . But with policy rates in the United States at the lower bound, the ability to offset spillovers from adverse developments in foreign economies with conventional policy is constrained and is likely to be so for some time, and this asymmetry in risk management suggests greater caution than normal."
Mr. Fischer has previously said he expected the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by the end of 2015, while Ms. Brainard in October called for "watching and waiting" before raising rates.
Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-12-15 1827ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Fischer comments tonight

A strong dollar is restraining U.S. inflation and exports, justifying a slower pace of interest-rate increases, but on balance the U.S. economy is riding out the effects fairly well, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Thursday.
"While the dollar's appreciation and foreign weakness have been a sizable shock, the U.S. economy appears to be weathering them reasonably well, notwithstanding their large effects on certain sectors of the economy heavily exposed to international trade," Mr. Fischer said in remarks prepared for delivery at a Fed research conference in Washington . " Monetary policy has played a key role in achieving these outcomes through deferring liftoff relative to what was expected a little over a year ago."
He noted Fed policy makers have lowered their projections for the likely path of the central bank's benchmark federal-funds rate since the dollar began its ascent in mid-2014. "This greater degree of monetary accommodation seems appropriate given the adverse effects on U.S. aggregate demand coming from the rise in the dollar, an associated weakening of foreign economic prospects, and other developments that have restrained spending and kept inflation undesirably low," Mr. Fischer said.
In September, the Fed decided to delay raising short-term interest rates that have been pinned near zero since December 2008 . The dollar strengthening against other major world currencies was one worry on officials' minds; their Sept. 17 policy statement said that "recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term." That line was dropped from the Fed's next statement on Oct. 28 , a sign those worries had faded somewhat.
Mr. Fischer noted Thursday that the Fed's latest policy statement signaled a possible rate increase at the Dec. 15- 16 meeting, "though the outcome will depend on the [rate-setting Federal Open Market] Committee's assessment of the progress--realized and expected--that has been made toward meeting our goals of maximum employment and price stability. Of course, as policymakers, we must always be vigilant to events unfolding differently than we expect, and we must be ready to react accordingly."
Mr. Fischer said the dollar's rise since July 2014 has been "large, though not unprecedented by historical standards." He said the appreciation has been partially driven by a decline in foreign interest rates relative to U.S. rates, as well as "heightened concern about the global outlook and an associated decrease in investor risk tolerance."
A stronger dollar reduces U.S. exports by making them more expensive for foreign customers, restraining overall economic growth, and Mr. Fischer said there is "good reason" to expect the drag "will persist well into next year." A stronger dollar also puts downward pressure on import prices, but he described the effect on U.S. inflation as "probably more transient" than the impact on economic growth.
"From the standpoint of the outlook, this transience means that some of the forces holding down inflation in 2015-- particularly those due to a stronger dollar and lower energy prices--will begin to fade next year," Mr. Fischer said.
Mr. Fischer isn't the only official at the U.S. central bank weighing the effects of the dollar on the U.S. economy and the outlook for monetary policy. Fed governor Lael Brainard , in a speech last week, warned that "the feedback loop between ... expectations of divergence between the United States and major trade partners and financial tightening in the United States means that material restraint to U.S. conditions is already in place." She added, "Looking ahead, a further downgrade of foreign growth prospects could pose downside risks to the U.S. outlook."
Normally, Ms. Brainard added, "policy in the United States could ease smoothly in response to signs that spillovers from developments abroad were restraining activity or inflation in the United States . But with policy rates in the United States at the lower bound, the ability to offset spillovers from adverse developments in foreign economies with conventional policy is constrained and is likely to be so for some time, and this asymmetry in risk management suggests greater caution than normal."
Mr. Fischer has previously said he expected the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by the end of 2015, while Ms. Brainard in October called for "watching and waiting" before raising rates.
Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-12-15 1827ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

NAT tanker raises NAO platform stake

Gotta wonder when tanker outfit increases stake in supplier?

15:50pm ET today. NAT flat $15. NAO close 5.55 -.15 spike at close.
(+) NAO, Nordic American Tanker (NAT) increases its equity stake in company to 26.5%, up from 19.8% previously, after a $9.5 mln stock purchase of 521,300 share at $6.25 apiece, a 14% premium over Wednesday's closing price.
-----------------
11:01 AM EST, 11/09/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Nordic American Offshore (NAO) shares were down Monday morning after the operator of platform supply vessels said it swung to a wider-than-expected Q3 loss on lower revenues that missed consensus forecasts compiled by Capital IQ.
Q3 net loss was $3.1 million or $0.13 per share compared to a profit of $2.8 million or $0.12 per share a year earlier.
Revenues fell to $8.0 million from $14.3 million, missing the $10.6 million mean estimate.
NAO was moving closer to the lower end of the 52-week range of $5.85 to $15.34.
Price: 6.00, Change: -0.19, Percent Change: -3.11

YUMA energy ->5% as divy halted

01:51 PM EST, 11/12/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Yuma Energy (YUMA) shares were down over 5% on Thursday afternoon, coming off a trading halt, after the company suspended the monthly cash dividend payment on its 9.25% series A cumulative redeemable preferred stock due to the current depressed commodity price environment.
The oil and gas company said the weak prices have adversely affective its cash flows and liquidity and the suspension will be effective with the month ending Nov. 30.
Yuma said the suspension will last until it the board determines the company has sufficient liquidity to restore payments.
If the company doesn't pay dividends on these stocks for any monthly period within a quarterly period for a total of six quarterly periods (whether consecutive or nonconsecutive), the holders have the right to elect two additional directors to serve on the board and the dividend rate per annum will be increased 2.0% per annum until all accumulated and unpaid dividends are paid in full.
YUMA trades near the bottom of the 52-week range between $0.30 and $3.25.
Price: 0.36, Change: -0.02, Percent Change: -5.26
http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2015 MTNewswires. All rights reserved. MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

Build UP > expected

11:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 06) W/W 4224K vs. Exp. 1300K (Prev. 2847K)

11:02 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 06) W/W 4224K vs. Exp. 1300K (Prev. 2847K); US crude output increased 0.273% to 9.185mln B/D
- US DoE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Nov 06) W/W 2237K vs. Exp. 150K (Prev. -212K)
- US DoE Gasoline Inventories (Nov 06) W/W -2102K vs. Exp. -1000K (Prev. -3300K).
- US DoE Distillate Inventory (Nov 06) W/W 352K vs. Exp. -1000K (Prev. -1300K).
- US DoE Refinery Utilisation (Nov 06) W/W 0.80% vs. Exp. 0.50% (Prev. 1.10%).
(U.S. Department of Energy)
--------------
10:50 US DATA EXPECTATIONS: US DoE crude oil inventories for the week ending Nov 06 due in 10 mins at 1600GMT (1000CST); expectations…
- DoE US Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 06) W/W Exp. 1300k (Low -3000k, High 3500k) Prev. 2847k
- DoE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Nov 06) W/W Exp. 150k (Low -500k, High 2300k) Prev. -212k
- DoE US Gasoline Inventories (Nov 06) W/W Exp. -1000k (Low -2400k, High 500k) Prev. -3300k
- DoE US Distillate Implied Demand (Nov 06) W/W Exp. -1000k (Low -2900k, High 400k) Prev. -1300k
- DoE US Refinery Utilisation (Nov 06) W/W Exp. 0.50% (Low 0.20%, High 1.00%) Prev. 1.10%
(BBG)
11:00 News Bot: US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 06) W/W 4224K vs. Exp. 1300K (Prev. 2847K)

10a ET CRUDE FUTURES EXTEND LOSSES SLIGHTLY AFTER GENSCAPE REPORT OF NEARLY 2 MLN BBLS CUSHING CRUDE BUILD IN WEEK TO NOV 10 -TRADERS

UWTI bit off lod now -0.47 7.79 DWTI +6.71, +5.81% had been +8%

9am ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Crude Inventories prior 2.847M consensus 1.016M
Distillates prior -1.300M consensus -0.931M
Gasoline prior -3.300M consensus -0.807M

Thanks will look. Iran & tanker fleet piece
Signed up. He delivered the popular outlook. Blog seems good info.
Saw a short Bberg video earlier about oil & electricity generation vs other sources. Natty to gain as a source from shale. Coal to be fairly steady. Some solar as panels cheaper now. Ended saying oil is separate beast since mainly used by cars, ships, and planes. Main threat would be by 2020 or so if cars went completely electric oil would tank for real.
But for now the cheapness of gasoline is making for demand holding up.
Interesting below about the old tankers in Iran fleet & as storage. Market may be pricing in too soon that impact. Price will tell.

Iran to face bumpy re-entry into global oil tanker market
in International Shipping News 12/11/2015 5pm ET

SKS_SKEENA_Crude_oil_tanker.jpg
Even after Western sanctions are lifted, Iran’s oil tanker fleet is expected to face more hurdles before many of the vessels can start trading again due to insurance hiccups and tougher requirements over sea worthiness by potential foreign clients.
Iran’s main tanker operator NITC remains blacklisted by the United States and European Union since 2012, meaning it’s unable to secure foreign insurance or international classification services, which certify ships have met safety and environmental standards necessary to get access to most ports.
Iranian media has quoted NITC officials as saying the group was readying its return to international markets and was in talks with Western insurers while also looking to expand its fleet. NITC officials could not be reached for comment.
“It is fair to say that commercially they will probably be more difficult to fix than a ship of … an independent owner or certainly a non-Iranian owner,” said Hugo de Stoop, chief financial officer with leading Belgium-based tanker owner Euronav. “It will take some time.”
Since a July nuclear deal with world powers, Iran has repeatedly announced plans to boost oil production and exports once sanctions are lifted to reclaim its position as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ second-largest producer.
The United States last month approved conditional sanctions waivers, although it cautioned these would not take effect until Tehran had curbed its nuclear programme.
Leading tanker broker EA Gibson said a number of NITC’s tankers would need “to meet international standards in terms of class and insurance”.
“Furthermore, many units are likely to require dry docking (repairs). On this basis, the process of ‘re-entry’ will be gradual,” Gibson said in a report.
Iran’s fleet includes 37 to 40 NITC supertankers, known as VLCCs, each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil. Tanker tracking sources estimated that Iran was currently storing oil – both crude and its derivative condensate – on around 24 VLCCs versus 29 vessels in July.
Euronav’s de Stoop said eight of Iran’s supertankers, currently used as floating storage, were over 15 years old and were unlikely to rejoin the global fleet as it would involve millions of dollars in extra costs.
Lawyers say EU companies are likely to face fewer limitations in dealing with NITC than U.S. firms, which would complicate early deals given the importance of the U.S. financial system.
“Financing and insurance of NITC or its vessels or voyages will present challenges,” said Matthew Oresman, counsel with law firm Pillsbury.
“U.S. financial institutions will not be able to play a role and initially few European financial institutions may be willing to insure and finance these transactions initially, especially if they have had sanctions compliance issues in the past.”
Shipping and legal sources say the risk of a possible “snap-back” in sanctions, if Iran does not meet its commitments, is also likely to add to caution when dealing with NITC for now.
“If you put yourself in the shoes of a client before he would accept to charter an NITC vessel, he would have to think probably twice whether there is a risk attached to the fact that sanctions could be re-imposed,” Euronav’s de Stoop said.
Source: Reuters (By Jonathan Saul, Editing by Veronica Brown and Susan Thomas)

Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts’ EIA/API Data Suggests a 500,000-Barrel Draw in U.S. Oil Stocks
Note Platts is often way of the mark of EIA/API final numbers but ok on
the lesser categories than the headlines.

in Oil & Companies News 11/11/2015 5:04pm ET

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to show a decline of 500,000 barrels in the week that ended Friday, according to a survey of analysts conducted Monday by Platts, a leading global energy and commodities information provider.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) Thursday, a data release delayed a day because of the Veteran’s Day holiday Wednesday in the United States.
The EIA five-year average (2010-14) average shows inventories fell 530,000 barrels for the same reporting period, the first weekly draw since mid-September. The return of refineries from seasonal maintenance by early November boosts the amount of crude processed, helping lower stockpiles after a period of depressed demand.
This year, crude oil inventories have increased the last six weeks, corresponding with the seasonal trend, adding 28.8 million barrels to already elevated levels of storage. For the week that ended October 30, crude stocks were 482.8 million barrels, a 30% surplus to the five-year average for the same reporting period.
Analysts expect the refinery utilization rate to rise 0.7 percentage point last week to 89.4% of operable capacity. A year ago, the run rate equaled 90.1% of operable capacity for the same reporting period.
Phillips 66 completed planned work at its 336,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) joint-venture Wood River in Roxana, Illinois, a company spokesman said in email last week. Market sources have said the work, which began late August, was on a 120,000 b/d crude distillation unit. The company did not confirm what unit was affected by the maintenance.
ExxonMobil completed work last week at its 238,000 b/d refinery in Joliet, Illinois, the company said. No specifics were offered by the company. Alon restarted its 80,000-b/d refinery in Krotz Springs, Louisiana, after planned work that began late September, CEO Paul Eisman said in a statement last week.
Another factor affecting weekly crude balances — domestic production — has been resilient despite a slowdown in drilling activity. Output from the Lower-48 States has stalled at about 8.6 million b/d since September after having peaked at nearly 9.2 million b/d in June, according to weekly U.S. EIA estimates.
For the week that ended October 30, continental U.S. oil production rose 44,000 b/d to 8.651 million b/d, EIA estimated. Additional production increases would place upward pressure on crude oil inventories, as would a rebound in crude oil imports.
Higher imports seem likely after averaging 6.943 million b/d the week that ended October 30. That marked the first time week imports averaged below 7 million b/d since June. Weekly import figures can be greatly affected by a gain or decline of even a few crude tankers, making estimates difficult.
A continued reduction in imports seems counterintuitive considering the narrowed Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)/ Brent premium to New York Mercantile Exchange’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures.
The ICE Brent/WTI spread was more than $7/b in mid-August before narrowing to less than $2/b at one point in mid-September. It has been in a $2-$4/b range since then. A smaller premium for Brent relative to WTI is seen as encouraging imports on a cost basis.
REFINED PRODUCTS SEEN DRAWING
U.S. distillate stocks are expected to fall 1.4 million barrels in the latest reporting week. The EIA five-year average for the same reporting period shows inventories dropped 3.4 million barrels.
Distillate stocks have fallen the last seven reporting periods a total of 13.2 million barrels to 140.8 million barrels in the week that ended October 30, a 6% surplus to the five-year average for the same time of year.
The ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) refining crack, basis ICE Brent, bounced off lows of less than $5/b in mid-October to more than $11/b intraday last week.
But huge inventory levels seen on the U.S. Atlantic Coast (USAC), which is home to the New York Harbor-delivered NYMEX futures contract, has constrained the profitability of turning crude into diesel.
For the week that ended October 23, USAC combined stocks of low and ultra-low sulfur diesel totaled 50.126 million barrels, a 87.1% surplus to the five-year average for the same reporting period.
U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 500,000 barrels last week, the surveyed analysts said. The EIA five-year average shows gasoline inventories declining 700,000 barrels in the comparable reporting week.
In refinery news, Chevron said last week it experienced a “major unit shutdown” at its 243,000-b/d refinery in Richmond, California. Chevron, in its report to Contra Costa Health Services, did not provide details on the unit and did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Shell conducted unplanned maintenance last week at its Saudi Aramco joint venture 235,000-b/d Convent, Louisiana, refinery, a spokesman said, while declining to specify the unit. A unspecified unit at Tesoro’s 166,000-b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, shut unexpectedly Monday, a company spokeswoman said Tuesday.
Source: Platts

Oil tankers queuing in US Gulf seen as new symbol of glut
in International Shipping News 11/11/2015 5:04pm ET

A traffic jam of oil tankers has emerged along the U.S. Texas coast this month, a snarl that some traders see as the latest sign of an unyielding global supply glut.
More than 50 commercial vessels were anchored outside ports in the Houston area at the end of last week, of which 41 were tankers, according to the Houston Pilots, an organization that assists in the navigation of larger vessels in and around port areas. Normally there are between 30 to 40 vessels anchored offshore, of which two-thirds are tankers, according to the pilots.
Although the channel has been shut intermittently due to fog or flooding in recent weeks, pilots said those issues were not significant enough to create the backlog. “It’s not because of a lack of pilots or tug boats,” according to JJ Plunkett, a Port Agent with the Houston Pilots.
As of Nov. 6, more than 20 million barrels of crude were sitting in vessels anchored outside the U.S. Gulf Coast waiting to discharge, double the volume that typically discharges each week, according to Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at ClipperData.
“We’re seeing ships idling off the coast of China, Singapore, (the) Arab Gulf, and now the U.S. Gulf. It appears that the glut of supply in the global market is only getting worse,” Smith said. Oil traders in the U.S. cash market pointed to everything from capacity constraints at Gulf Coast storage tanks to a lack of buyers for the imported barrels.
While U.S. data show Gulf Coast inventories hit a record 251.7 million barrels just over a week ago, major facilities at Corpus Christi, Houston, the Beaumont-Nederland area, and St. James, Louisiana, were still barely two-thirds full at the end of October, according Genscape data.
Several traders said some ships may have arrived without a buyer, which can be hard to find as ample supply and end-of-year taxes push refiners to draw down inventories. At the same time, the steepening contango structure of the oil futures market – in which prompt barrels are priced at a discount to future contracts – has diminished the urgency to unload vessels.
The spread between first- and sixth-month WTI CLc1-CLc6 has fallen by nearly $1 in three days to more than $4, its lowest since August but still not enough to make it profitable to store excess crude on tankers, traders said.
On Monday, the December to January contango for WTI hit its widest level since the end of April, with January trading up to a $1.30 a barrel premium to the prompt contract.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Liz Hampton, with additional reporting by Marianna Parraga in Houston and Catherine Ngai in New York; Editing by Chris Reese)

Believe so, & Natty is Friday

Both got pushed back a day by holiday. Mkt open but other things no.

And a poster here said EIA Thurs would be half hour later 11am ET.
Natty still showing usual 10:30am ET, just Fri instead.

Oil Prices Move Little; Global Surplus Weighs on Sentiment
Today 10:38 PM ET (Dow Jones)
By Jenny W. Hsu

Crude oil prices reversed overnight losses but expectations of another buildup in U.S. crude inventories amid the persistent global surplus will keep gains limited in Asia trade Tuesday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at $44.17 a barrel at 0322 GMT, up $0.30 in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $0.24 to $47.43 a barrel.

On Monday, data provider Genscape Inc. suggested U.S. crude-oil stockpiles probably rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended Friday. The official data will be released by the energy department on Thursday.

Citi Futures energy analyst Tim Evan said the weak Nymex prices also reflected concerns that the relatively warmer winter this year would take a toll on oil demand.

Oil prices have nearly halved since last summer and major oil producers, particularly those from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, have done little to stimulate prices as they prefer to protect their market share. Prices are currently down at levels seen during the financial crisis and most analysts believe the below-$50 barrel scenario is unlikely to improve in the near future.

"Recent press reports suggest Saudi [Arabia] has no intention of letting up on the current pump for market share policy. The unexpected rally of a week ago is now a distant memory and as prices fall there is the likelihood of distressed longs looking to exit as U.S. inventories, the dollar and global demand all weigh," said Stuart Ive, a client manager at OM Financial.

Even though the International Energy Agency, the industry's top watchdog, said oil demand is likely to strengthen to 103.5 million barrels a day in 2040, versus the 94.5 million barrels a day estimated for 2015, the market hardly reacted to such prediction because "2040 is just too far long away," said Alex Poon, vice president of marketing at ADMIS Hong Kong.

"There are hardly any positive catalysts on the horizon now. U.S. stockpiles are expected to enlarge, the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates, and China's economy is visibly slowing down," Mr. Poon added.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for December--the benchmark gasoline contract--rose 47 points to $1.3752 a gallon, while December diesel traded at $1.4820, 46 points higher.

ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $447.50 a metric ton, down $0.50 from Monday's settlement.

Write to Jenny W. Hsu at jenny.hsu@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 09, 2015 22:38 ET (03:38 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

2 simple charts illustrate why low oil prices are so depressing
Business Insider By Akin Oyedele
34 minutes ago

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-simple-charts-illustrate-why-143802070.html

10:13 crude neg on Cushing +1.8M bbls Genscape

U.S. CRUDE TURNS NEGATIVE; TRADERS CITE GENSCAPE DATA SHOWING BUILD OF 1.8 MLN BBLS IN CUSHING INVENTORIES FOR OCT 30-NOV 5

Bonus Pay on Wall Street Is Likely to Fall, a Report Says
By NATHANIEL POPPER NOV. 8, 2015 NY Times

Even as they emerge from the post-financial-crisis haze, bankers are seeing few signs that their institutions — and their bonuses — will stage a full recovery anytime soon.

Bonuses in the financial industry this year are expected to fall 5 to 10 percent, according to an annual report being released Monday morning by the compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates. It is the first year since 2011 that compensation for the industry as a whole is expected to drop.

There are still a few bright spots, including private equity and mergers-and-acquisition work, but most of the largest segments of the industry are struggling. End-of-year compensation in investment and commercial banking has been falling steadily and this year will be down 30 percent from 2009 levels, the Johnson Associates report predicts. Even asset management, a part of the industry that has been doing better, will experience a 5 percent drop in bonuses this year.

The New York comptroller, Thomas P. DiNapoli. His office uses tax withholding data to track Wall Street pay.
Alan Johnson, founder of Johnson Associates, said many in the industry had been anticipating a rebound. This year, though, those hopes have been fading.

“We kept expecting next year will be the year,” he said. “And it hasn’t really happened — and I don’t see it for the next three to five years.” He added, “It’s hard to see the swell of demand that will bail us out here.”

Finance is still one of the most generously compensated industries in the world. The average securities industry bonus last year was $172,860, according to the New York State comptroller’s office.

But the analysis from Johnson Associates, based on data from 30 or so of the largest financial institutions, is the latest reminder of the challenges facing the industry as it deals with a combination of new regulations, slow economic growth and increasing competition from new, technologically oriented competitors.

In recent weeks, several European banks have announced major management changes and cutbacks after previously resisting such moves. New executives at Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Barclays have all talked about rethinking their basic commitment to the Wall Street businesses that were so lucrative a decade ago.

In the most drastic moves, Deutsche Bank’s new chief executive, John Cryan, said his company intended to eliminate 35,000 jobs over the next two years — nearly a quarter of its work force.

American banks have generally been faring better, in part because of the stronger economy in the United States. But in the latest quarterly reports, companies like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley turned in dismal results, leading analysts to question their strategies.

Mr. Johnson said he expected that “going forward, these companies are going to have to cut costs significantly.”

The challenges depend on the bank and the quarter. But there are broader trends affecting all the banks to some degree.

In recent months, turmoil in China was responsible for the chaos in the markets, which dragged down trading returns.

Mr. Johnson said that several economies around the world had been performing worse than expected and in ways that seemed unlikely to turn around quickly, leading to less activity for banks.

New rules since the financial crisis have also forced banks to maintain higher levels of capital to serve as buffers against future financial downturns.

Keeping those capital levels up — often by raising money from shareholders — has made several businesses more expensive, especially the trading desks known as fixed income, where bonds, currencies and other assets are bought and sold.

In the new Johnson Associates report, fixed-income bonuses are predicted to drop 10 to 20 percent this year — the sharpest decline of any part of the industry. Before the crisis, fixed income was one of the most reliable engines of profit on Wall Street.

Generally, business lines that require less capital — often because they are less risky — are seeing better returns and bonuses. The most attractive segment of the industry has been the work of advising companies considering mergers and acquisitions, which tends to be about relationships rather than capital. For those bankers, the incentive payments this year are expected to be 15 to 20 percent higher.

Advisory banking is what many people think of when they think of Wall Street, but it is a relatively small part of the industry and not enough to make up for the challenges elsewhere.

The other business segment that banks have been emphasizing in recent years, in large part because it requires less capital, is the work of managing assets for such clients as wealthy individuals and large institutions. This year, though, even that business has struggled because of the tepid markets and economy, and bonuses are likely to be about 5 percent lower.

Mr. Johnson said that because of the problems facing Wall Street, finance is losing its allure for the most talented young potential recruits, who are seeing better offers from tech companies in Silicon Valley. That used to be “sporadically true,” he said.

“In the last few years, it’s become a real issue,” he added.

US Military Officials Aim to Bolster Troop Presence in Europe

SIMI VALLEY, Calif. --Senior U.S. military leaders have proposed sending more forces into Europe on a rotating basis to build up the American presence and are stepping up training exercises to counter potential Russian interference with troop transfers in the event of a crisis with Moscow .
The new steps would allow for the presence of multiple U.S. brigades in Europe at any given time, increasing that number above current limits.
They were outlined at a forum here over the weekend by military and defense leaders, who condemned military aggression and threats from Russian President Vladimir Putin and warned that the U.S. must not let Moscow's cooperation with the West in Syria distract from the conflict in Ukraine .
Russia has been involved in diplomatic talks over the war in Syria and the future of the regime of its ally President Bashar al-Assad . In late September, it launched a campaign of airstrikes in support of Mr. Assad's government.
Gen. Philip Breedlove , the supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , said he would like to see more brigades committed to Europe as rotational forces. Decisions on the proposal, he said, will be made "in the next couple of months."
Gen. Mark Milley , the chief of staff of the U.S. Army , said the Army is refining its training to ensure the U.S. military is able to face threats posed by Russian forces, learning to counter hybrid war, which blends regular and irregular forces, propaganda and unconventional tactics to sow confusion. He also said he was in favor of sending more troops to deploy--on a temporary basis--to Europe .
Such moves, Gen. Milley said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal , are critical to ensure that no new conflict erupts in Europe .
"Aggression left unanswered is likely to lead to more aggression," he said.
The generals' comments came over the weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum here, an annual gathering of U.S. defense and national security leaders.
The proposal for more rotating forces must be formally developed by Pentagon planners and then approved by the Obama administration and funded by Congress . The military will push for the inclusion of funding in a budget request to be sent to Capitol Hill early next year, officials said.
At the same forum, Defense Secretary Ash Carter also issued a warning against Russian aggression. He said in an address Saturday that Moscow seems "intent to play spoiler" by "throwing gasoline" on the fire of Syria and criticized Russian "nuclear saber-rattling."
Russian officials declined to comment on Sunday. Senior Russian officials have repeatedly said there is little difference between rotational forces and a permanent buildup. They have also repeatedly accused the U.S. and NATO of being the aggressor in Europe .
NATO countries are discussing increasing the number of troops stationed in members bordering Russia and putting them under formal alliance command. The next talks on that idea are likely to come in early December, when foreign ministers gather and begin discussing proposals to be formalized at a Warsaw summit in July.
U.S. defense leaders have been more hawkish in their comments than either White House or European officials as they focus on the U.S.-Russian military landscape.
Both the Obama administration and German leaders have criticized Russia as well, but they also have emphasized the importance of including Moscow in discussions over the future of Syria .
While officials have said the White House in recent weeks has asked some military leaders to temper some comments, the administration is pursuing a strategy that allows Pentagon officials the latitude to talk about bolstering defenses, while State Department diplomats try to engage with Moscow .
An administration official said it was reasonable for the Pentagon and State Department "to pursue different tracks." The Pentagon, the official said, is focused on enhancing European readiness, while the State Department was pursuing "diplomacy where we can and where it is in our interest."
Gen. Breedlove warned that by cooperating with Russia on Syria , the West will come to accept Moscow's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region.
"I fear that as we are dealing with Russia in Syria , the eyes are off the Donbas," Gen. Breedlove said in an interview. "Why would we want our first negotiations on how we cooperate to be in Syria and then possibly allow the eyes of the world to accept what happened in Crimea?"
Mr. Carter defended what he called a balanced approach to Russia , saying Moscow may play a constructive role in resolving the Syrian civil war.
But signaling his wariness over Russian intentions, he said NATO needs a "new playbook" to deter Russia .
Defense officials said NATO would avoid massive troop buildups and instead rely on ways to get smaller numbers of troops forward from the U.S. both during a crisis and to prevent tensions from growing into a conflict.
The Army currently has two brigades--of about 3,500 soldiers each--based in Europe . It has assigned one additional brigade in the U.S. to serve as a regionally aligned force that will rotate into and out of Europe . Gen. Milley said he would like to add more brigades to those rotating to Europe , and add attack helicopter units, engineering teams and artillery brigades.
Russia has been building up and modernizing its military to make U.S. steps to reinforce European defenses more difficult. Russian submarine patrols and exercises have increased dramatically, Navy officials have noted.
Russia also has been increasing what military leaders call anti-access, area denial forces--air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, antiship weaponry--that can be used to keep opposing military equipment at arm's length.
Other military officials have warned about such missile systems being moved into Kaliningrad --the Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania --and Crimea. Officials said Russia now seems intent on putting new weaponry at a base in Belarus .
In the event of a conflict, Gen. Breedlove said the U.S. will face a problem both with flying troops from the U.S. to Europe , as well as moving forces and equipment from airports and seaports to front-line conflict zones.
"The Russian navy is not going to stand by and watch us reinforce Europe , " in the event of a confrontation, said Gen. Breedlove. "For two decades we haven't thought about the fact that we are going to have to fight our way across the Atlantic."
Mr. Carter said the U.S. is investing in technologies meant to counter these Russian investments, including in lasers, a new bomber and upgraded drones. He also said the U.S. was "updating and advancing" operational defense plans against the Russian military, "given Russia's changed behavior."
Military officials noted that any new deployments must be carefully calibrated.
"The challenge here is to deter further aggression without triggering that which you are trying to deter," Gen. Milley said. "It is a very difficult proposition."
Throughout the later years of the Cold War, the U.S. military conducted a massive exercise called Reforger, that practiced moving tens of thousands of troops from the U.S. to Europe quickly. While there is no need to revive the exercise on that same scale, a new kind of drill that echoed the old Reforger operation would be helpful, Gen. Milley said.
"Nobody wants to go back to the days of the Cold War," Gen. Milley said. "We don't need exercises as big as Reforger anymore. But the concept of Reforger, where you exercise contingency forces ... that is exactly what we should be doing."
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-08-15 2104ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

China Exports Slump as Global Demand Shrinks
stuffit also all my prayers, such as they are, for better days!
Seems more such stories every day, still pains.

BEIJING -- China's exports fell in October for the fourth consecutive month, as a once-powerful engine of the country's growth continued to sputter in the face of weak global demand.
The world's appetite for China's goods--the world's second-largest economy accounts for nearly one-fifth of global factory exports -- has been lower than expected this year. Meanwhile, weak domestic demand continues to reduce imports. Both are contributing to China's growth slowdown.
"The mix of the data is again not encouraging," said Commerzbank economist Zhou Hou . "Trade momentum is unlikely to turn around in the near term."
Sunday's results suggest the export scene is worsening. China's General Administration of Customs said October exports fell 6.9% year-over-year in dollar terms, after a drop of 3.7% in September. The October figure was worse than the median 4.1% decline forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal .
Imports in October fell by a sharper-than-expected 18.8% from a year earlier, following a 20.4% decline in September. China's trade surplus widened in October to $61.64 billion from $60.3 billion in September.
China's Commerce Ministry said Thursday in a report that exports are likely to see little increase in 2015, while imports will likely report a "relatively big" decline as falling commodity prices continue to weigh on trade flows.
China's rising labor and land costs in recent years have weakened the nation's exporters' competitiveness, the Commerce Ministry said. The average wage for workers in coastal provinces, including the manufacture hub of Guangdong province, has reached $600 a month, twice the level of Southeast Asian countries.
Promo Solution, a stationery and gift exporter to North America , Europe and Japan , said in the face of mounting competition, it is targeting the U.S. market. "But it's tough," said Jin Bo , the company's executive general manager. " Step by step, we're trying to move into higher-end products so we can improve our margins," he added.
China has set a 6% year-over-year trade growth target for 2015 that it looks likely to miss. That compares with a 7.5% trade-growth target in 2014, which it missed by more than four percentage points.
China is on track for a record trade surplus this year, which should give some support for the yuan, said Macquarie economist Larry Hu . China has tried to prop up the Chinese currency's value as slowing growth and a surprise August devaluation prompted investors to bet that more weakening was in store.
The overall trade figures suggest more weakening in a year when China is already set to post its slowest annual growth rate in a quarter century. Improvement in the Chinese economy will ultimately depend on stronger domestic demand and an improvement in the property sector, Mr. Hu added.
On Saturday, China's central bank reported that foreign-exchange reserves in October rose by $11.39 billion to $ 3.526 trillion , ending a five-month streak of monthly declines. Economists said it signaled weaker expectations among investors that the yuan would depreciate further.
Exporters at the massive Canton Trade Fair in southern Guangdong province this month said the recent modest depreciation of the yuan has provided little relief.
"A lot of Westerners think this helped us out a lot," said Chen Shuming, sales manager with Fujian Furniture Industry & Trading Corp. "But the 2% depreciation actually hurt us. It was in every newspaper and customers called us within hours pushing for 6% discount, so we had to give them 4%," he said.
The continued slump in Chinese imports reflects weak domestic demand, falling commodity prices and currency shifts that have tended to overstate the drop in dollar terms, economists said. While the value of China's imports declined by 15% year on year in the first nine months, volumes fell 4%.
Pei Li and Chuin-Wei Yap contributed to this article.
Write to Mark Magnier at mark.magnier@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-08-15 0101ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

China Exports Slump as Global Demand Shrinks

BEIJING -- China's exports fell in October for the fourth consecutive month, as a once-powerful engine of the country's growth continued to sputter in the face of weak global demand.
The world's appetite for China's goods--the world's second-largest economy accounts for nearly one-fifth of global factory exports -- has been lower than expected this year. Meanwhile, weak domestic demand continues to reduce imports. Both are contributing to China's growth slowdown.
"The mix of the data is again not encouraging," said Commerzbank economist Zhou Hou . "Trade momentum is unlikely to turn around in the near term."
Sunday's results suggest the export scene is worsening. China's General Administration of Customs said October exports fell 6.9% year-over-year in dollar terms, after a drop of 3.7% in September. The October figure was worse than the median 4.1% decline forecast by 11 economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal .
Imports in October fell by a sharper-than-expected 18.8% from a year earlier, following a 20.4% decline in September. China's trade surplus widened in October to $61.64 billion from $60.3 billion in September.
China's Commerce Ministry said Thursday in a report that exports are likely to see little increase in 2015, while imports will likely report a "relatively big" decline as falling commodity prices continue to weigh on trade flows.
China's rising labor and land costs in recent years have weakened the nation's exporters' competitiveness, the Commerce Ministry said. The average wage for workers in coastal provinces, including the manufacture hub of Guangdong province, has reached $600 a month, twice the level of Southeast Asian countries.
Promo Solution, a stationery and gift exporter to North America , Europe and Japan , said in the face of mounting competition, it is targeting the U.S. market. "But it's tough," said Jin Bo , the company's executive general manager. " Step by step, we're trying to move into higher-end products so we can improve our margins," he added.
China has set a 6% year-over-year trade growth target for 2015 that it looks likely to miss. That compares with a 7.5% trade-growth target in 2014, which it missed by more than four percentage points.
China is on track for a record trade surplus this year, which should give some support for the yuan, said Macquarie economist Larry Hu . China has tried to prop up the Chinese currency's value as slowing growth and a surprise August devaluation prompted investors to bet that more weakening was in store.
The overall trade figures suggest more weakening in a year when China is already set to post its slowest annual growth rate in a quarter century. Improvement in the Chinese economy will ultimately depend on stronger domestic demand and an improvement in the property sector, Mr. Hu added.
On Saturday, China's central bank reported that foreign-exchange reserves in October rose by $11.39 billion to $ 3.526 trillion , ending a five-month streak of monthly declines. Economists said it signaled weaker expectations among investors that the yuan would depreciate further.
Exporters at the massive Canton Trade Fair in southern Guangdong province this month said the recent modest depreciation of the yuan has provided little relief.
"A lot of Westerners think this helped us out a lot," said Chen Shuming, sales manager with Fujian Furniture Industry & Trading Corp. "But the 2% depreciation actually hurt us. It was in every newspaper and customers called us within hours pushing for 6% discount, so we had to give them 4%," he said.
The continued slump in Chinese imports reflects weak domestic demand, falling commodity prices and currency shifts that have tended to overstate the drop in dollar terms, economists said. While the value of China's imports declined by 15% year on year in the first nine months, volumes fell 4%.
Pei Li and Chuin-Wei Yap contributed to this article.
Write to Mark Magnier at mark.magnier@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-08-15 0101ET
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

CPST Capstone Turbine AH R/S 1-20 open Mon 11/9

Capstone Turbine -7.2%, executing 1-for-20 reverse split
Nov 6 2015, 17:16 ET | About: Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST) | By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
Microturbine system maker Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) -- now trading at an all-time low -- planned to execute a 1-for-20 reverse split as of 4:30 p.m. today.CEO Darren Jamison said maintaining the company's listing on Nasdaq was important, and several customers and vendors were concerned, "as they were mistakenly equating share price to overall solvency." The company has a market cap of $72M.Shares closed down 7.2% today to $0.20. The company will begin trading an a split-adjusted basis Monday on the same ticker symbol but a new CUSIP. Every 20 shares are being converted into one, with fractional shares rounded up.After the move, the company will have 17.3M shares of common stock outstanding.

CPST 1-20 Capstone Turbine AH Nas open 11/9

Capstone Turbine -7.2%, executing 1-for-20 reverse split
Nov 6 2015, 17:16 ET | About: Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST) | By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor Contact this editor with comments or a news tip
Microturbine system maker Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) -- now trading at an all-time low -- planned to execute a 1-for-20 reverse split as of 4:30 p.m. today.CEO Darren Jamison said maintaining the company's listing on Nasdaq was important, and several customers and vendors were concerned, "as they were mistakenly equating share price to overall solvency." The company has a market cap of $72M.Shares closed down 7.2% today to $0.20. The company will begin trading an a split-adjusted basis Monday on the same ticker symbol but a new CUSIP. Every 20 shares are being converted into one, with fractional shares rounded up.After the move, the company will have 17.3M shares of common stock outstanding.

Check out consumer credit at ath back to 1941

You'd have to think that oil powers will soon conclude they can/should jack prices given idea "well they can certainly afford a rise".
In theory only a Fed series of rate rises would counteract that- unless that was taken as further sign of strength and little price resistance.

3pm ET M/M
Highlights
In a record report, consumer credit data are strongly confirming the strength of the consumer. Credit outstanding surged $28.9 billion in September for the largest gain in the history of the series which goes back to 1941. Nonrevolving credit, in part reflecting vehicle financing and also student loans, rose $22.2 billion. Revolving credit, reflecting a rise in credit-card debt, jumped $6.7 billion to extend an emerging run of strength that suggests consumers are now less reluctant to run up their credit cards which, for retailers certainly, is a good omen for the holidays.

Consumer Credit record high back to began 1941
3pm ET M/M
Highlights
In a record report, consumer credit data are strongly confirming the strength of the consumer. Credit outstanding surged $28.9 billion in September for the largest gain in the history of the series which goes back to 1941. Nonrevolving credit, in part reflecting vehicle financing and also student loans, rose $22.2 billion. Revolving credit, reflecting a rise in credit-card debt, jumped $6.7 billion to extend an emerging run of strength that suggests consumers are now less reluctant to run up their credit cards which, for retailers certainly, is a good omen for the holidays.

Consumer Credit record high back to began 1941
3pm ET M/M
Highlights
In a record report, consumer credit data are strongly confirming the strength of the consumer. Credit outstanding surged $28.9 billion in September for the largest gain in the history of the series which goes back to 1941. Nonrevolving credit, in part reflecting vehicle financing and also student loans, rose $22.2 billion. Revolving credit, reflecting a rise in credit-card debt, jumped $6.7 billion to extend an emerging run of strength that suggests consumers are now less reluctant to run up their credit cards which, for retailers certainly, is a good omen for the holidays.

A Scottish man was just busted for an alleged stock scam involving fake Twitter accounts
by Jonathan Marino on Nov 5, 2015, 6:17 PM Business Insider

James Alan Craig, of Dunragit, Scotland, allegedly made up Twitter accounts to replicate that of "well-known securities research firms," according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Then he made up information about stocks in order to manipulate their prices, said a complaint the regulator filed against the man in California.
In 2013, Craig allegedly used faked twitter profiles "that he deceptively created to look like" other known research firms' accounts to send tweets saying Sarepta Therapeutics was under investigation.
The company's stock price plummeted by 16% before recovering, the SEC said.
Additionally, also in 2013, the man allegedly did the same about Audience, which provides technology to smartphone makers. In that case, the company's share price dropped and trading in the stock was halted.
“As alleged in our complaint, Craig’s fraudulent tweets disrupted the markets for two public companies and caused significant financial losses for their investors,” said Jina L. Choi, Director of the SEC’s San Francisco Regional Office, via a statement.
“Craig also said in later tweets that the SEC would have a hard time catching the perpetrator. As today’s enforcement action demonstrates, those tweets turned out to be false as well.”
Be careful who you follow, guys.

AAII Investor Sentiment at close

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey measures the sentiment of individual investors on the stock market.

The results of the latest survey recently came out and showed that bullish sentiment was back below 40 percent, while bearish sentiment stood at its lowest point since February.

So, let’s take a closer look at the results.

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the proportion of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the stock market over the upcoming six months. The last survey ended on November 4 , and showed that 39 percent of individual investors were bullish on the market (down 1.4 percent since last week), while only 18.6 percent were bearish – down 2 percent. Interestingly enough, many investors (42.4 percent) were Neutral on the market over the next six months.

A few things to note:

While bullishness declines slightly this week, the magnitude was not substantial.

Source: Bespoke.com

Another issue to highlight is the fact that even though bullish sentiment tumbled, bearish sentiment saw an even larger decline, falling from 20.59 percent last week to 18.6 percent this week.

Analysts at Bespoke noticed that, “For bearish sentiment, this is the lowest reading we have seen in this measure since February 19th .  As shown in the chart below, the uptrend in bearish sentiment that had been in place for most of this year has now been fully broken.”

Oil patch spooked by new CAD PM
09:49 AM EST, 11/05/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's oil patch has been spooked by new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's ministry, according to globeandmail.com. According to the article, Trudeua has elevated the focus on climate change within his first cabinet, which will "deepen fissures" between his government and the energy industry. Trudeau created a new ministry named Environment and Climate Change. According to globeandmail.com, the decision to add "Climate Change" to the department's official name is telling, as it provides a "strong signal" that the new government is "serious about tackling climate change." Notably, the policy shift adds to uncertainty for energy producers, which could delay or curtail investment in the sector. NYMEX crude has fallen to US$45.88 per bbl after peaking at $46.50 per bbl overnight

http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2015

Oil bits & Challenger oil job cuts

07:58 News Bot: Saudi Aramco raised their December oil price to Asia, taking its discount to Oman/ Dubai to USD 1.30 per bbl, according to the deputy commodities editor of the FT
- FT added that Saudi Aramco decreased its December oil prices to Europe and US by USD 1.30 per bbl, in order to compete in an overcrowded market. The move represents increasing the discount to the Brent weighted average of USD 4.75 per bbl.

08:28 News Bot: Officials state that the Nafoura and Al-Majid oil fields in Libya have been shut after the Zuetina port was shut

07:11 News Bot: Duke Energy (DUK) Q3 Adj. EPS USD 1.47 vs. Exp. USD 1.52
- Q3 operating revenue USD 6.48bln vs. Exp. USD 6.81bln.
- Co. have revised their FY Adj. EPS forecast to the lower end of their previous guidance to USD 4.55-4-65 from USD 4.55-4.75.

08:11 AM EST, 11/05/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Challenger reported Thursday that announced layoffs fell 8,373 in October (non seasonally adjusted) after rising 17,700 in September. On an annual basis, the layoff figure is down 1.3% year-over-year after jumping 93.2% y/y previously. The computer industry (-31,700) paced the monthly decline, while the energy sector reported a 16,300 increase in planned job cuts. October hiring announcements showed a 406,100 drop, almost erasing the 480,500 increase in September.
http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2015

Oil bits & Challenger oil job cuts

07:58 News Bot: Saudi Aramco raised their December oil price to Asia, taking its discount to Oman/ Dubai to USD 1.30 per bbl, according to the deputy commodities editor of the FT
- FT added that Saudi Aramco decreased its December oil prices to Europe and US by USD 1.30 per bbl, in order to compete in an overcrowded market. The move represents increasing the discount to the Brent weighted average of USD 4.75 per bbl.

08:28 News Bot: Officials state that the Nafoura and Al-Majid oil fields in Libya have been shut after the Zuetina port was shut

07:11 News Bot: Duke Energy (DUK) Q3 Adj. EPS USD 1.47 vs. Exp. USD 1.52
- Q3 operating revenue USD 6.48bln vs. Exp. USD 6.81bln.
- Co. have revised their FY Adj. EPS forecast to the lower end of their previous guidance to USD 4.55-4-65 from USD 4.55-4.75.

08:11 AM EST, 11/05/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Challenger reported Thursday that announced layoffs fell 8,373 in October (non seasonally adjusted) after rising 17,700 in September. On an annual basis, the layoff figure is down 1.3% year-over-year after jumping 93.2% y/y previously. The computer industry (-31,700) paced the monthly decline, while the energy sector reported a 16,300 increase in planned job cuts. October hiring announcements showed a 406,100 drop, almost erasing the 480,500 increase in September.
http://www.mtnewswires.com Copyright © 2015

Asian Shares: Japan Shares Rise on Yen Weakness
AH UWTI -1 10.50 DWTI +6.81 92.39 SCO +4.11 79.33

Today 8:52 PM ET (Dow Jones)Print
By Chao Deng

Brent oil was last up 0.7% in Asia trade at $46.49. U.S. oil prices fell 3.3% overnight, as weekly U.S. inventory data showed a sixth-straight increase in crude supplies.


Markets in Asia slipped early Thursday on signals the U.S. could increase rates this year, although Japan shares rallied following the Japanese yen's slight weakening overnight.

The Nikkei Stock Average was up 0.8%, extending a rally from the previous day when state-owned Japan Post Holdings Co. and its financial units began trading, marking the world's biggest initial public offering since the debut of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. last year.

But weakness in commodity prices hit the sector in Australia, which led the S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3%. The energy sector on the index was off 0.8%.

The Hang Seng Index was off 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index was flat.

South Korea's Kospi slipped 0.3%.

The region began on a weak foot after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said overnight that a rate increase at the central bank's December meeting was a "live possibility." A move would be the first increase in rates for the U.S. since 2006.

Central banks were the main driver of the region's gains in October, although shares have been choppy so far this month as investors temper their expectations for further stimulus. Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia held off on introducing easing in the past week.

U.S. stocks slipped overnight and the U.S. dollar gained ground against other currencies following Ms. Yellen's remarks.

The Japanese yen recouped its overnight losses and was last at 121.49 against the U.S. dollar, roughly flat compared with its level in late Asian trade Wednesday.

The yen fell to its weakest level since late August overnight, hitting 121.71 to one U.S. dollar. A weaker yen is generally positive for Japanese stocks, particularly those of exporters.

In Australia, investors looked to the latest signals that their central bank isn't in a rush to ease further. Earlier, Australian central bank Gov. Glenn Stevens reinforced policy makers' recent message that while low inflation is no impediment to lowering interest rates, the non-mining economy is starting to grow.

Chinese investors are speculating about whether authorities will open a stock trading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, further loosening investment restrictions on foreigners.

Out-of-date comments from China's central bank raised hopes that the link would materialize by year-end, propelling the Shenzhen Composite Index 5.1% higher on Wednesday and the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.3%. Both indexes had their largest percentage gains in nearly two months.

Hopes for more global cash to Chinese stocks are also building ahead of MSCI Inc.'s decision later this month to possibly include U.S.-listed Chinese firms to its most heavily tracked stock indexes.

In Tokyo, shares of SoftBank Group Corp. fell 1.7% after the company's chairman said during an earnings presentation Wednesday that t housands of jobs will be cut at Sprint Corp. as part of a turnaround effort at the struggling U.S. wireless carrier. SoftBank bought Sprint in 2013.

SoftBank also reported mixed earnings, posting a net profit of Yen213 billion ($1.75 billion), which was below analysts' expectations of Yen262 billion.

Japan Post Holdings Co. was up 3.6% in early Asia trade, while Japan Post Insurance Co. and Japan Post Bank Co. were up 16% and 6%, respectively. The units of Japan's post-office operator jumped more than 15% each in the first day of trade Wednesday.

Brent oil was last up 0.7% in Asia trade at $46.49. U.S. oil prices fell 3.3% overnight, as weekly U.S. inventory data showed a sixth-straight increase in crude supplies.

Gold prices rose 0.1% to $1,107.80 a troy ounce.

James Glynn and Alexander Martin contributed to this article.

Write to Chao Deng at Chao.Deng@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 04, 2015 20:52 ET (01:52 GMT)

MGent ditto to George comments, be well. em

AH bits Petrobras, CXO, MRO

19:03 News Bot: Petrobras says oils strike reduced output ny 140k bbls or 6.5% of daily output

19:03 News Bot: Concho Resources Inc (CXO) Q3 Adj. EPS USD 0.33 vs. Exp. USD 0.19

19:03 News Bot: Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) Q3 Adj. loss/shr USD 0.20 vs. Exp. loss/shr USD 0.41

19:03 News Bot: RBA Governor Stevens says the potential growth rate assumptions have been cut slightly

19:03 News Bot: BoJ minutes from October 6th-7th policy meeting says to keep easing until 2% inflation is stable and members will check risks and adjust policy as needed

OPEC's Next Meeting Is One Month Away - Here's What You Need To Know

Last chart is interesting.

http://tinyurl.com/ou4yjet

Backlash Against US in Iran Seems to Gather Force After Nuclear Deal
By THOMAS ERDBRINK NOV. 3, 2015 NYT
TEHRAN — Anyone who hoped that Iran’s nuclear agreement with the United States and other powers portended a new era of openness with the West has been jolted with a series of increasingly rude awakenings over the past few weeks.

On Tuesday, the eve of the 36th anniversary of the student takeover of the American Embassy in Tehran, state television announced the arrest of a Lebanese-American missing for weeks — after he had been invited here by the government. He has been accused of spying.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, said the “Death to America” slogan is eternal. New anti-American billboards in Tehran include a mockery of the Iwo Jima flag-raising photograph that symbolized Marine sacrifice in World War II. And an Iranian knockoff version of K.F.C., the chicken chain widely associated with the United States, was summarily closed after two days.

“It feels like a witch hunt,” said one Iranian-American businessman in Tehran, who dared not speak for attribution over fear for his safety. “It’s pretty scary.”

Ever since the nuclear accord was reached in mid-July and endorsed by Ayatollah Khamenei, he has been insisting it did not signal rapprochement with the United States — although some tacit improvements have emerged.

Military forces of Iran and the United States have avoided each other in fighting Islamic State militants in Iraq. Last week, Iran participated for the first time in international talks aimed at resolving the Syria conflict.

Many proponents of the nuclear accord, in both countries, have suggested that a gradual improvement in relations was inevitable. Some even foresaw a shift in the region, shaped by collaboration between the United States and Iran to bring peace, coupled with an eased enmity that could embolden President Hassan Rouhani to open up the country.

While Mr. Rouhani promised more freedoms when he was elected two years ago, he has taken only a few cosmetic steps.

Now, as the autumn leaves are falling in Tehran, there are no signs that bolder changes are coming. On the contrary, a backlash appears to be underway, promoted by Mr. Rouhani’s hard-line adversaries in the government who are deeply skeptical of the United States and its allies.

The backlash comes as Iran is preparing for parliamentary elections in February that constitute a litmus test of Mr. Rouhani’s policies. It seems that hard-liners, using the intelligence unit of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, have started rounding up journalists, activists and cultural figures, as a warning that the post nuclear-deal period cannot lead to further relaxation or political demands.

In recent days at least five prominent figures were arrested by the intelligence unit, among them Isa Saharkhiz, a well-known journalist and reformist, who was released from jail in 2013 after a conviction for his alleged involvement in the 2009 anti-government protests. On Sunday, Ehsan Mazandarani, the top editor of a reformist newspaper, Farhikhtegan, was arrested by the same unit, the semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported. On Tuesday, they arrested the well-known actress and newspaper columnist, Afarin Chitsaz, the Amadnews website reported.

Proponents of the nuclear deal had expected some backlash in Iran. But even they appear to have been blindsided by its intensity.

“All these arrests baffle me,” said Farshad Ghorbanpour, a political analyst who has long said the nuclear deal would lead to positive changes and more freedoms. “I cannot say more.”

State-sanctioned media have been busy producing a litany of American conspiracy theories — Iran’s Press TV website even published an article on Tuesday raising the possibility that the C.I.A. was responsible for downing a Russian jetliner in Egypt over the weekend. Iranian news has also given prominent mention to the “network of American and British spies” rounded up by the Guards’s agents.

Their most prominent targets are dual Iranian and American citizens, but on Tuesday, state television said Nizar Zakka, a Lebanese-American information technology expert who mysteriously disappeared here on Sept. 18, also had been seized.

Heralding the arrest as yet another capture of an “American spy,” state television said Mr. Zakka, the secretary general of the Arab Information and Communications Technology Organization, was a “treasure trove” because of “connections with intelligence and military bodies in the United States.”

Mr. Zakka had been invited to Iran with his family by the vice president for Women and Family Affairs, Shahindokht Molaverdi, to speak at a conference. Leaving his hotel in Tehran on Sept. 18, Mr. Zakka never arrived at the airport, his organization has said.

There was no immediate reaction from the organization to news of Mr. Zakka’s arrest. And it is unclear whether Vice President Molaverdi had known about the reason behind his disappearance.

The confirmation of Mr. Zakka’s arrest followed the incarceration of an Iranian-American consultant, Siamak Namazi, known for his advocacy of improved ties with the United States. His arrest has not yet been officially confirmed, but his friends said that his passport was taken upon arrival in Iran mid-September, and security officials took him from his mother’s home in mid-October.

Jason Rezaian, The Washington Post’s Tehran correspondent, an Iranian-American held on charges of espionage since July 2014, was convicted recently, state media have said. But his lawyer, Leila Ahsan, says she has not yet received a verdict.

At least two other Americans of Iranian descent, Amir Hekmati and Saeed Abedini, are languishing in prison here as well.

In a sign that the crackdown may just be starting, the head of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned on Sunday that a new sedition was underway in which the United States and its “domestic allies” are trying to influence the Islamic Republic. “This sedition will be longer and more complicated than all other seditions,” he said.

Symbols of the United States, a rarity in the Iranian capital, are under even greater scrutiny after Ayatollah Khamenei warned that the United States was attempting to subvert the country through “cultural penetration.”

On Tuesday, a newly opened Tehran restaurant that had advertised itself as a K.F.C. outlet was closed by the municipality. Abbas Pazuki, the restaurant’s manager, told the Tasnim news agency that the closure had been a mistake. “We have no connection with the American K.F.C.,” he said.

Officials at the parent company of K.F.C., Yum Brands of Louisville, Ky., did not immediately return telephone messages. American fast-food chains have been saying, however, that they have no definitive plans to enter the Iranian market, even after the lifting of sanctions.

Other hints of an anti-American backlash have been accruing here. In September, for example, shops and textile producers were told they could no longer sell clothes with labels of the American or British flag.

On Wednesday, Iran will loudly celebrate the Nov. 4, 1979, takeover of the United States Embassy, with a state-sponsored rally in front of the building, commonly known as the den of spies.

To help promote the proper mood, the municipality has erected billboards showing a young man wearing a baseball cap spray-painting the words “down with America.”

Another billboard on Tehran’s central Vali-e Asr Square satirizes the flag-raising at Iwo Jima, where many Marines died, showing it planted atop a pile of bodies symbolizing historic “wrongdoings by the Americans.”

In a speech on Tuesday, Ayatollah Khamenei sought to emphasize why shouting “Death to America,” words that proponents of improved relations call unhelpful at best, will be forever justified. He also suggested they should not be taken literally.

“The slogan ‘Death to America’ is backed by reason and wisdom,” he said in a speech. “It goes without saying that the slogan does not mean death to the American nation; this slogan means death to the United States policies, death to arrogance.”

He also warned against domestic enemies who may have been encouraged by the nuclear pact.

“One of the measures America has taken in the course of the recent years was to make some people cover up Americans’ face with makeup,” he said, “pretending that even if Americans were once our enemy, they are not anymore.”

Reporting was contributed by Rick Gladstone from New York, Eric Schmitt from Washington, and Hwaida Saad from Beirut, Lebanon.

Highlights EIA
Oil inventories keep climbing, up 2.8 million barrels in the October 30 week to 482.8 million. Refineries operated at 88.7 percent of capacity in the week which is moderate for this reading but end demand is strong, up a year-on-year 2.5 percent for gasoline and up 8.9 percent for distillates. Strong demand continues to drain product inventories with gasoline down 3.3 million barrels in the week and distillates down 1.3 million. WTI is down about 50 cents in early reaction to the data, near $47.25.

mo low UWTI 10.82 DWTI +4.62