Loving life
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
orientbull .. Yup and that goes for those who added to existing positions as well.
MO,
Danny
dagrinch .. Yeah, I know to expect that, but it just proves once again that a high percentage of buyers are just lemmings, waiting for their leader to point the way...
I can understand why you might think that, but in the case of institutional investors it is an incorrect characterization. For you and others to better understand how institutions go about the business of managing money and why their buy and sell activity vis-a-vis IDCC seems so counter intuitive, imagine for a moment that you could not buy, sell or hold a single share of ANY stock, much less IDCC, until you, your wife, her brother the global economist, your brother the technology guru, your next door neighbor who studies stock market movements 24/7, your sister who has an inside line on what's happening in Washington and your old school chum who thinks he knows LOTS of stocks that are better investments than IDCC, reach a consensus on what to do. Think there might be a significant time gap between events and action? To quote Sarah Palin, "You betcha!"
Institutions place great emphasis on minimizing the number of their mistakes as well as the severity of the ones they do make. Every day is a new day when it comes to the make-up of their portfolios and every stock in them is, theoretically, replaceable with one of higher relative future value that someone internally or externally might show them. For some (many?) here the only stock in existence is IDCC and it is unaffected by the economy, wars, administration changes, etc. That doesn't make them wrong or bad investors but it does make them far greater risk takers than institutions. Institutions can't understand why individuals invest the way they do and visa-versa. They are apples and oranges and always will be.
But one pattern is consistently true in the life of stocks. First the stock price is primarily influenced by individual investors (think late 1999 thru 2003-4 for IDCC) and, if the stock is ultimately successful, the institutions are the primary determinants of stock price movement. It is important to know if you are in an apple orchard or an orange grove if you want to be successful in your investment decision-making process and that is true for both individual and institutional investors alike.
MO,
Danny.
MSC290 .. (Dow Jones) InterDigital (IDCC) shares extend gains after Hilliard Lyons upgrades rating to buy following the wireless-technology developer's agreement with Samsung Electronics on patents for 3G products.
Sell-side analysts do move the stock up and done. Like it or hate it, but don't ignore it or dismiss it.
MO,
Danny
nessco .. Good post. If we had been putting more faith in Carpenter's numbers from when he first initiated coverage, most if not all of our surprises would have been PLEASANT ones and any disappointments would not have been such cause for over the top concern on this board. It is not too late to start.
MO,
Danny
dmiller .. Panic buying in order to profit from company going private:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34935173
MO,
Danny
Rich and Mickey .. Normally I would agree with you, but when it comes to growth I believe the Street has a downside bias on almost everything right now. Fixed fee licenses at least take away the downside guessing and that may very well turn out to be a good thing for the stock price for the next 2 - 3 years.
MO,
Danny
rockitt .. I know a road show for an established publically traded company is not done much, but this company is really still in its infancy when it comes to figuring out how to monetize what they have been developing for so very long.
Something else I believe that is seldom done is to proactively reach out to buy side analysts. The reason is that it is involves delivering/maintaining the message one institution at a time whereas with sell side analysts, each analyst delivers the message they hear to many clients.
It is clear that trying to obtain coverage from sell side analysts has been only minimally successful. We've not attracted new coverage for some time now. A shift in tactics seems warranted.
While each buy side analyst can only influence one institution .. the one that employs them .. compared to many for each sell side analyst, this is offset by higher credibility and far less conflicts of interest. It seems IDCC shareholders would be well served if the company organized an effort to proactively get the message out directly to institutions and buy side analysts. I suspect there are many respected sell side analysts that are out of work right now who could do an excellent job of forming a group to do just that.
MO,
Danny
JeffreyHF .. You would have the same access if you had the same (potential) impact on the share price. Moreover, would you avail yourself of that access on a regular basis which could prove beneficial to all investors OR only when it would be beneficial to you?
Having said that, thanks to Jim, you have at least some of the access that analysts have to IDCC. They get NO inside information, just an up close and personal view of what is happening as opposed to ours from the peanut gallery. All you need to do is read it and respect it for what it is.
No one on this board or any board will have the same access as analysts because they do not make their living by doing so. It should be clear to all that the Tom Carpenters of the world have far more impact on the share price than Teecee. Deal with it.
MO,
Danny
whizzeresq .. Needless to say, people had visions of a stock that could be worth a couple of hundred dollars per share. People with a couple of thousand shares were looking forward to a very comfortable retirement. With todays settlement, that value appears unlikely.
Excellent post. I would just add that IDCC is not going to stop producing and commercializing IP for the foreseeable future. If you told me a year ago that I would PREFER to use my HTC smartphone when away instead of my laptop I would would have said that was highly doubtful. Who knows what new innovations are coming in the next five years and who is to say that IDCC won't be coming up with new ways to participate in these new markets?
This company is on VERY solid grounds and is just beginning its growth.
MO,
Danny
goblue .. I think the IDCC "buy and hold" crowd (individual and institutional) has been "all-in" for some time. They'll be back IMO when they recognize that their DEPRESSED stocks are going to stay that way for awhile and they sell and raise cash to buy the IDCCs of the market.
MO,
Danny
JohnSamuel .. Outstanding post! .. The ability of some on this board to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is legendary. Sure sounds like pigs at the trough in investor's clothing to me and, as we all know, bulls and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered.
MO,
Danny
+1,000,000
Mickey .. PLEASE send me your phone number to btschaaf@mac.com. You absolutely can not do this yourself. PM Artheritis and I think he will confirm that I can help you.
Really, we may not see eye to eye on everything but I am truly concerned about you. You have replaced Mschere as the "dot connector" on this board and we need you.
Take care,
Danny
Mickey .. I have had my struggles with depression recently BIG TIME. Much of it brought on by similar experiences to yours. Drugs and talk therapy brought me back, and I will never wait as long as I did before if I get even an inkling that I'm on a downward slide.
Check this out:
http://health.msn.com/health-topics/depression/articlepage.aspx?cp-documentid=100149177&page=1
Take care,
Danny
12Bs ..I think there is perfect transparency .. they sign every deal as quickly as possible. When it is signed they announce it in complete compliance with FD independent of the progress or lack thereof on any and all other license negotiations.
Think about what your suggesting. WM is giving another pep talk or tongue lashing as the case may be to the licensing department. "Get those deals done and ASAP dammit. Don't take no for an answer." Yelling and backslapping all around : "Let's go get 'em!!!" Then just before they break down the door on the way out WM says, "Of course don't agree to anything until you check with me in case I want to hold up the announcement because it is not the right time. AND leave your cell phones on 24/7 because I might need you to give away the store in order to sign someone that day in order to offset some bad news on the way."
One hell of a book could be written using some of the off the wall interpretations of events that are put forth here day after day and subsequently expanded upon ad nauseum. BUT, that book would have to placed in the Fiction section of any bookstore.
MO,
Danny
Loop .. It is not just about the "fun" phone. I have an HTC "smartphone" and don't even take my laptop when we go on a trip now. Anyone that tries to predict how wireless technology advances will modify behavior even one year from now has agreed to accept "Mission Impossible." Hell, this 66 year old is even thinking of getting rid of his land line.
MO,
Danny
Jimlur .. I sure don't understand the compensation committee and what guidelines they use. It doesn't make sense to me how a guy like Merritt can earn under $500,000 and get a bonus over $800,000???
How could you possibly understand how the compensation committee works and what guidelines they use since you are not a member of the committee, had nothing to do with establishing the guidelines and the associated rationale, have never attended a meeting of the committee, have no knowledge of of what the program is meant to motivate the management TEAM to accomplish and are unaware of the LEGAL, specific deadline dates for the awards and the corresponding regulatory reporting requirements.
Yet, in spite of the complete lack of knowledge on the subject, you've concluded that the Compensation Committee has done something irrational and not in the shareholders' best interests. I don't have a clue as to whether they did a good job or a bad job but I sure do know when I don't have enough information to even offer an opinion and to just move on and wait and see if the incentive program is working or not.
MO,
Danny
goblue .. Definitely .. eom
Mickey .. I just don't want good investors to be scared off by these people who are saying numbers that is totally opposite of what the CEO is very clear about.
Has it occurred to you that what you are saying, how you are saying it and how often you are saying it has eroded your credibility to the point where you, more than anyone else on this board, present the greatest danger to scaring off "good investors." You may think that your comments are welcomed by "good investors" .. of which there are MANY on this board .. but clearly they are not. You are a "speculator" Mickey, not a "good investor." Speculators make money, lots of it at times, but they also lose big, particularly when they insist that every written and spoken word about the company by management can only have one of two interpretations as you stated in your post: On this subject I think I am 100% right or the CEO is also 100% wrong, its 1 of the 2.
If DD were that simple then the stock would either be north of $100 or back in the low teens this very moment. The current stock price is a reflection of a myriad of opinions and interpretations by "good investors" about EVERYTHING that is being said about IDCC, and the Global economy, and competitors, and the effect of the Obama administration and on and on. It most definitely is not confined to a black or white interpretation of what the CEO said in an investor presentation. I am willing to bet that not a single "good investor" at that presentation came away willing to invest even one penny on the certainty of your interpretation of the CEO's words. The "G" in good investors stands for "grey."
MO,
Danny
Clamcakes .. Got to call you on Wellfleet oysters which I thought were the best in the world when I lived on the Cape. They can't hold a candle to Pemaquid oysters from the Damariscotta River 200 feet away from where we live. We served 15,000 oysters at last year's festival .. how many did Wellfleet put out? Check it out:
http://www.downeast.com/The-Maine-Mouth/September-2008/Pemaquid-Oyster-Festival/
Life is good .. one of our best friends is a lobsterman and the other is an oyster farmer!
Regards,
Danny
Spider .. You've been away for a while as well .. nice to see you back! Dementia has set in for sure .. forgot the warm winter weather in Florida and now we spend the entire year here in Damariscotta Maine LOL. Might just buy Florida when our IDCC ship comes in! Those RB days were something special weren't they? I'm sure I'll always remember them no matter how bad my memory gets.
Take care,
Danny
Clamcakes .. Talk about a blast from the past LOL. How are you doing and where are you doing it?
Danny
My New Year wish to all from Damariscotta Maine is that Mickey gets to scream "I told you so" in 2009 at the top of his lungs until he is horse . I admit to that being selfish because if Mickey is able to do that I'm going to be a VERY happy 10 year shareholder!
Danny
olddog .. If you are right, and you present a strong case that you are, then that is REALLY good news. Don't know what IDCC might get per unit for 400 million "data-centric devices" but it could be substantial in total, conceivably even more than for the 950 million handsets. Moreover, the projection of the number of "data-centric devices" in 2012 could be well below the actual amount in 2012 given the amount of time still left to develop types of "data centric devices" that no one has even conceived of yet.
MO,
Danny
gattica .. Sorry, now I understand what you were asking. The chart on page 13 uses the word "device" in three separate places and the word "handsets" is nowhere to be found. I think, therefore, the chart is misnamed. It says "Potential Annual 3G Revenue per Device in 2012" which only makes sense as the label for the vertical axis, with the horizontal axis being "Percent Market Penetration for All 3G Devices in 2012." The name of the Chart should be "Potential Total Annual 3G Revenue in 2012", dropping the words "per device."
Bottom line is, as I read it, ALL of the numbers on that chart are related to Devices not to Handsets, which is a subset of Devices.
MO,
Danny
gattica .. Not sure if I understand your question, and I'm headed out for the day.
Here is my thought: Getting revenue from every 3G device is consistent with a commitment to existing licensees that NO company is going to get a free ride on IDCC IP, not just handset manufacturers.
I'll check in later to see if this is what you were asking.
MO,
Danny
mickey .. if they don't then IDCC still did the right thing as they don't know if a company will succeed or fail, its their job to license each and every one of them.
Right on target. Not only is it their job with regard to maximizing revenues from their IP, they also OWE it to their current licensees to be diligent in insuring that no other company gets a free ride on IDCC IP and, in turn, an undeserved competitive advantage.
MO,
Danny
Mickey .. Two possibilities as to why there has been no update:
1. Nothing of significance has happened since that 8K in terms of negotiations. They are under no obligation to publicly disclose and update shareholders in this instance.
2. The term "substantial progress" is open to many differing interpretations in terms of what level of progress might be characterized as "substantial". Any need to report progress or lack thereof against such an imprecise term is therefore open to substantially more interpretations. I know you believe that much more clarity was in that 8k and that is certainly your right to do so but it doesn't make your interpretation any more correct than anyone else's.
MO,
Danny
O/T Mickey .. Every fund has a prospectus and files quarterly reports which provide as much DD as anyone could ever want if they are so inclined. As for brokers, I couldn't agree with you more, at least for those who are still on commission. They are a dying breed for the very reasons you mentioned.
MO,
Danny
O/T Mickey .. The bottom line lesson to be learned with Madoff is that absolutely no one .. professional or individual .. can guarantee an annual return higher than the cash market. How the wealthy individuals, charity and non-profit endowments, and professional money managers missed that one is beyond me.
Madoff is not a professional money manager. He is a scam artist of the highest order. This is a classic case of if it sounds too good to be true it isn't. Investing ALWAYS involves risk and the possibility of losses.
In the late 1990's many individuals convinced themselves that the stock market could only go up. It took awhile for reality to set in and as a result many individual investors were wiped out many because of undetected fraud on the part of analysts, CEOs, auditors, etc. Most people who have their money managed by professionals understand that it still is up to themselves to control their destiny at the end of the day by being ever vigilant to what their money manager is doing. Firing a money manager or fund manager and hiring a new one can be done in a heartbeat with today's technology. Apparently, Madoff investors didn't understand that and opened the doors wide for the fox to come into the hen house.
MO,
Danny
Jimlur .. but what they have agreed upon is not binding.
BINGO!
MO,
Danny
Jimlur .... +1000
Andrew .. Excellent post .. The only modification I would make is that we will be governed by the market until the street makes sense of the market. Only after that happens will they get to what individual stocks are worth. That may not happen when the Samsung deal becomes transparent BUT your analysis of IDCC is right on IMO, both in an absolute and relative basis,
MO,
Danny and it will happen.
Mickey .. You need to go back and read about how some of the insider trading scandals came about. Also, rumors on WS abound daily about many stocks and few check the credibility of the originator and in fact within hours nobody even remembers who started it but more than a few act on them. That is why Jim, wisely, doesn't permit rumors being posted on this board.
2+1 = 3 is a fact. "Substantial progress" is NOT a fact, it is a perception in the eye of the beholder and open to interpretation depending on who the beholder is. Why is that so hard for you to understand when there is not a single person on this board who doesn't?
Suing the CEO for "lying" in this case is beyond laughable and totally without merit but what the hell, have at it. Please keep us up to date on your progress.
MO,
Danny
Blue .. I can't get on there either.
Danny
Mickey .. You name the person who could be credible enough to circulate a damn thing about Noika and IDCC and progress, just name who it could possibly be that the company was that afraid of revealing something, and that person still be employed.
Do you even have a clue how many support people work on a legal issue of this magnitude some of whom are employed by the company and some of whom work at the law firms? Let's not leave out their family and friends as well as the family and friends of all the principals at the two companies as well as the lawyers. How many opportunities do you think come up during the course of the negotiations for a principal to inadvertently disclose something unintentionally to some one who should not be privy to that info. Hundreds? Thousands? It could be something as innocent as leaving a file open on one's desk while off doing something else or misspeaking while BSing with support staff working on the matter.
Now Mickey Britt, if one of those folks called you up and said "I accidentally learned something I shouldn't have about the IDCC and NOK negotiations and they are going a lot better than the market thinks they are" would you launch a full scale investigation into the credibility of that person or would you take every penny you had left to buy call options ASAP?
MO,
Danny
Mickey .. Here is my answer on the 8K
Substantial progress had definitely been made AND IDCC had reason to believe that fact was about to be leaked with the potential that it would be hyped into far more than "substantial progress." You may recall that NOK publicly indicated shortly after the 8K that they had a difference of opinion with IDCC regarding the progress being described as substantial. They didn't deny that some progress had been made and they didn't accuse IDCC of "lying" or "manipulating" and in fact who knows maybe NOK was guilty of downplaying the progress that had been made. Reasonable men and women can have valid differing views regarding what is meant by the word "substantial" when it is applied to progress in negotiations of this magnitude.
MO,
Danny
Nicmar .. Good post .. when the big guys get cheated, we all get cheated. As you have pointed out, there may very well be the same percentage of "good" big guys as there are "good" little guys.
MO,
Danny
nicmar .. You are not naive at all. A P/E of 5 or 6 .. no way the price won't adjust BUT we are not there yet and WS right now just isn't paying for P/E's on the come no matter what we may think.
MO,
Danny
DD .. Wall street CAN NOT BE TRUSTED and more regulation is needed.
WS could NEVER be trusted. That is what regulation is all about. Can it stop it entirely .. nope. There will always be instances of people .. mostly the "little" guy .. getting ripped off. Regulation mitigates the damage, that's all. Take regulation away and the thieves are free to operate unencumbered.
In my 25 career career on WS there were several instances of the thieves having their way .. BUT it was short lived and resulted in minimal damage, relatively because of the strict enforcement of securities regulation. I still can't get my mind around Madoff and how he was given free reign to plunder.
I'd like to make another point. I certainly understand why those on this board do not want to entrust the management of their money to professional investors. However, think about this .. do you think that managing your money yourself and doing your own DD will protect you from the thief element on WS? Everyone here is scratching their heads about why IDCC's stock price doesn't correlate with our DD. It is really simple .. what we think about the value of IDCC has NO effect on the stock price any more. WS sets the price and that is the end of that tune.
MO,
Danny