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For the CNOOC, emulating big brother, Sinopec, will apparently be a better way of making a grand entry or any entry into Africa's largest oil and gas industry. This was rightly paraphrased by London-based think tank, Chatnam House: "The estimated $7.3 billion acquisition in June 2009 of Addax by Sinopec may be a better strategy for Chinese companies in Nigeria: to buy out existing producers rather than engaging in cumbersome and protracted deals," that are unlikely to yield any positive outcome.
The Malanza 1X is the fourth well drilled during the current campaign, which encompasses JDZ Blocks 2, 3 and 4. It is the second well drilled in JDZ Block 4, in which ERHC has a 19.5 percent interest.
"We are thrilled that the drilling campaign continues to progress on schedule and we look forward to the release of comprehensive drilling results when the operators complete their analyses," said Peter Ntephe, chief operating officer with ERHC.
Last week, Addax finished drilling a well at the Lemba 1X prospect in JDZ Block 3 in which ERHC has a 10 percent interest. A comprehensive analysis that incorporates the drilling results into relevant geologic and fluid models will now be carried out.
If Malanza is finished, and moving to another sigh, an update would be good before DEC. 15.
A huge short squeeze is coming, news is at hand now and it will start leaking soon. When it does, the shorts will run and most hopefully will get burned quickly. Remember this SP went down quickly with NO volume.. It will go up very fast once it all starts.. I think next week will be really interesting...:)
IMO This is perfect for ERHE to have good run from now til DEC 15.
IMO when everyone gets this negative and depressed and want to sell, good things all of a sudden start to happen.
I'm hanging in there, down 50% as of today....
Results will come in by DEC. 14th from JDA or ADDEX/SIN
Thus the DEC 15th conference before the bell by ERHE.
IMO the results will show PROMISING results from 2, 3, and 4.
But more extensive drilling will be necessary to develop the JDZ commercially. Thus the announcement of Phase two drilling plans during the conference. IMO ADDEX/SIN are committed to develop this field. I think they want to be here and be involved in the area through ERHE.. I think we'll be dating for a long time.
One last post til DEC. 15
IMO the volume picks up (over 1 mil/day) by Dec. 15
There will be a HUGE short squeeze as the volume and buying starts to pick up. Next week ERHE ....++.70
By the 15th ERHE .... 1.25-1.75 IMO
Good luck everyone..
no puff, you missed my point. Marginal fields will not get sinopec interested, they are interested in acquiring a co. ERHE that has a big footprint in the Nigeria oil/political community. I understand they have a big interest in the JDZ, but I think politics are playing a role in the Nigerians perception of ERHE. We have to play the game to make it look like we are not a large chinese company (sinopec) just trying to steal natural resources from a third world country at a song and dance.. OOPs the US has done that already:)
This just looking like there are local Nigerian politics clouding the whole arena right now and sinopec doesn't want to come in and scare the local governments from allowing them into other field opportunities (EEZ) etc.
thanks red, I thought I was ingnored by all on this board and just talking to myself....I probably am ignored by the majority, but thats ok
We all know something will be announced Dec. 15. This company is frustrating to get information from, but through shareholder pressure it seems they are forced to put something out there that is a general goal just to appease the shareholders. But many seem to not realize, things change daily in business, especially the oil business... We are a minnow, we try to make deals to try to become a whale, the big whales aren't to eager to let a minnow become a whale, so deals change, price of oil changes, fields that were left for dead get a second life because of new technology, politics etc.
IMO SEO is trying to make a bigger footprint in the Nigerian oil arena. The only thing he can do right now is to scoup up small marginal fields, he will continue to do this to give ERHE a bigger presence in the Nigerian oil community thus making it a better acquisition for Sinopec. Sinopec needs SEO to get EEZ blocks, marginal fields etc. right now. This will continue until
Sinopec feels a strong enough footprint is stamped by ERHE, then an acuisition will take place. The JDZ will have commercial oil, Phase two will be announced soon, maybe Dec. 15, EEZ will hold their bidding in early spring (if things don't change again) and we will get nice bump in the SP. $1.50 to $5.00 until things get signed won and more drilling is done in the other blocks etc. Again IMO Good luck to all
Definition of Patience
Buy into a new investment (ERHE)
After one week Sp down 10% === patience
After week 2 Sp down 15% === worried patience
After week 3 Sp down 20% === patience wearing thin
After week 4 sp down 25% === patience turns into concern
After week 5 sp down 30% === start reading message boards, false hope created!!! patience rejuvinated for the rest of the week
After week 6 sp down 35% === patience all gone, panic starts, appointment to the psycologist made, valium prescribed
After week 7 sp down 40% == become a raging poster on the board, valium dosage at max, starting to become a PATIENT.
After week 8 sp down 45% === no patience, no valium left, were served divorce papers, no hope, company comes out with BS
After week 9 sp down 50% ++ == ARE OFFICIALLY A PATIENT at the local nut house, no sign of the wife(not all that bad), no money,
no patience, but better free drugs.
the end
Good timing again Mark, but it isn't gonna help. We need some NEWS that will show the investment community that ERHE will produce REVENUES soon, 2010 4th Q or this stock will go nowhere.
I think this lame announcement was a ploy by management to try and level out the SP and get the volume up. Didn't work, I've seen other companies try this tactic, and it NEVER works.
It's like a professional team acquiring a player that is in his last couple years of production. That NEVER works either..
Come-on ERHE
my complete comclusion was that the news was not received as positive and it didn't move the sp up or the volume, that is what I was comcluding...
why is it that every post on this board is picked apart and scutinized ..can't anyone just vent and have their own opinion?
I guess just a lot of head cases that need to be right and the wizard all the time.
"If you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all" Thumper
See how the markets receives this news, from early indications, not well at all. Not even a positive knee-jerk reaction and a pull back. This news will send it lower. DEPRESSING!!!
The way they progress, it looks like the winners for EEZ won't be announced til late 2010...
IMO (for those who forget) ERHE SP has a little work to do in the next week or so, dropping below 200 week ave. will not be a positive, so lets see where the smart money will take the SP. IMO if they feel that if no real news will come out soon they will let it slip under, and let it fumble around for a while, if they feel some significant news will come soon, the volume will pick up very shortly and the Sp will move up quickly. There is NO resistance til the .70s I hope for the later,
Turkey just doesn't taste good at .50 than at .75
happy holidays
move up, like a hot knife through butter
The fat lady is up on the stage about to sing for the .55 support. Someone call the govenor for a pardon.. Next stop .52, then .50...
Noone wants to go there...
Does anyone think that this last hole will be drilled deeper seeing that there will not be enough time to drill another before dec.?? Maybe they will go to the Block 1 depth??
We're not invited guests to the wedding!!!
Why does everyone act like the ERHE management cares about any of us??? We are a by-product of a public company, believe me they don't care about us, if we make money, lose money whatever...They care about themselves in the front limo of the wedding party, we chose to buy-in to the wedding so sit back and enjoy the music and hopefully we will get some wedding cake and then we can eat it too. But it is going to be the longest reception that we have ever been at.
We're not invited guests to the wedding!!!
Why does everyone act like the ERHE management cares about any of us??? We are a by-product of a public company, believe me they don't care about us, if we make money, lose money whatever...They care about themselves in the front limo of the wedding party, we chose to buy-in to the wedding so sit back and enjoy the music and hopefully we will get some wedding cake and then we can eat it too. But it is going to be the longest reception that we have ever been at.
ERHE really needs to put out some sort of positive announcement to shore up the SP.. Even with low volumes it's getting hard to keep the SP even at these levels. They must be able to say something that won't upset the plan in motion.
The only reason a company would sell part of it's assets(i.e. interest in BLk 2, 3, or 4) is to raise money to get a piece of something bigger and better in there opinion. This could happen if ERHE does have a LONG term plan.
Totally agree Night
IMO as long as ERHE and ADDAX get one of the drill ships to finish the last hole would speak volumes on what they have found already. But I think finishing is important to show they r serious about the region and wanting a big part of the EEZ. They can't falter now, they will complete the wells..no matter the cost...
my estimates were based on momentum. Anyone have oil estimates for block 5 and 6???
So, you're saying basically the decision either way will have no effect on the SP.??
How much will the SP rise when we have a positive Blk 5 & 6 decision? and how much will the SP fall if it is not in ERHE favor? IMO a negative outcome is already figured into this SP of .58.. So, IMO a positive outcome will pop this SP back to .90..
that seems to be the pace that this company works at.
GOOD THINGS WILL HAPPEN SOON...March. 2010 all the news that we can handle.
IMO Sinopec has decided to go ahead and develop the area, they are drilling the remaining holes in bl 4. IMO if the first had doom written on it, they would have stalled on the remaining two, or bought out the contract so the Path can move on...but again IMO there must be some good initial signs from all of the blocks to warrent continiation of the drill program. IMO I feel that the real target is the EEZ and Sin wants to be a big part of it, and ERHE is along for the ride with it's presence and conections in the JDZ. Until Sin can be assured they are part of the EEZ through ERHE they are not going to absorb us, YET... If someone else is willing to pay a huge premium on what Sin is willing to cough up that might be workable, but I dought ERHE and OFFER will put the relationship with Sin at risk at this point.
IMO I don't think the JDZ have any drilling results from ADDAX either at this point. There would certainly be a leak to someone. I mean if Mark can get info :) come on... Addax must be trying to make sure they are a part of EEZ through ERHE before results are given. Addax will not buy us right now for a couple reasons IMO, 1. why, they have exposure through us now,
2. maybe they feel it would scare EEZ bidding with too much China in their face. When that is known, I think the fur will start flying.
The only reason I believe there is no REAL info yet is because of the low volume. If there were credible news either way we wouldn't be at .58. We would at .10 or 1.2 plus.. EVERYONE is waiting for credible news. I can't believe noone has leaked anything to anyone. They all must have duct tape on their mouths and keyboards.
very true, I hope they release soon, I have my eye on a nice new Telsa all electric sedan.. 90k
Why pay the high price of gas after I make a bundle off of oil. I don't want to give any back to the oil cows.
The results will come when ADDAX is ready to release complete results. Obviously they want to be part of the EEZ through us and they want to get in as cheap as possible. Giving out great news obviously drives up the cost to own in the EEZ.. IMO NOTHING will be released until after the EEZ bidding and awarding of blocks. Quit trying to fit square pegs in round holes with these contacts and trying to surgically cut apart every bit of news to make your sqare pegs fit into the round holes. By spring 2010, ERHE will deliver a puzzle to all of us and ALL of the pieces will fit into the puzzle, and for some, instructions will be included so you can complete the puzzle.
I think these five initial wells will be enough to determine commercial or not. Like I said earlier in my post IMO an additional contract for a drilling campaign in 2010 would be VERY positive..IMO I see our group contracting with another driller(or same) to put more holes in the blocks to determine where the elephants are. But I have no drilling background this is just trying to use some logic of business. We will hear the results IMO sometime closer to the EEZ bidding.
I hope we hear something positive sooner, but probably not.
Well, it was a green day...but no volume again..but I'll take it beggars can't be choosey. Something to build on..
Would like to see the daily volume to start kicking up though, it would put in a stronger bottom.
Highcotton, you're right about breaking .60 resistance, but it looks more like we are putting in a bottom. The three month chart looks like we are coming to a triangle by the end of the week. If we trade .61 the rest of the week it will confirm a bottom. If we trade .63 or higher in the next couple days that would start a positive up trend.
But this is a good thing .61...we need all the help we can get on the SP
AL OF THIS IS OF COURSE IMO (for those of you that need the reminder) IMO IMO IMO
Never said I KNOW, just I think IMO
Don't blow a gasket Mr. E, you attacked me..
amj, didn't realize YOU were the ultimate expert.
This was just IMO, everyone has a right to THEIR opinion.
Well maybe not were you come from...
AMJ just SEL your position, if you have one, then you'll be happy..
Probably not..experts are never happy..