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All Chinese r/merger stock are under selling pressure it seems but I believe nuin & wkbt below $3 are absolute steals.
The current product growth assures excellant growth will continue & with no debt,little A/R,high margins,accelerating revenue & earnings trends,cash flow &cash on hand strong,small float,p/e ratios less than 10% of expected growthrate,pps close to their growing B.V.,strong insider ownership.
I see a couple of 20 baggers developing for a better day.
I have a solid position in both stocks & will now await future earnings results to prove me right as I can wait as long as the reaper doesn't come after this 73 year old body.LOL
Thanks traderfan...
rule 15c2-11 has wkbt listed on it today.
I don't understand why my broker @ WellsFargo & MANY OTHER PLACES ARE UNABLE TO GET A QUOTE TODAY.
My AOL & Investors Village premium accounts show wkbt trading between $2.30-2.60 today with last trade @ $2.50 with current volume of 103,328 shares.
I will get to the bottom of this weird situation & post back here what I find to be the reason for the conflict in getting a proper quote as the stock has not been halted.
$2.53 -$0.09
The stigma of doing a pp @$2.40 is keeping the pps in check in spite the amazing growth past present & getting better going forward.
When wkbt was 1st listed it had a negative current account.
After 3 Q's of reported 2010 numbers current assets $31,456,785 vs current liabilities $4,239,725.
Operating cash flow ttm $22.47 million,,,ROE49.55%,,,ROA32.22%,,,ttm eps $0.62,,,total cash $29.95million.
And looking at 4thQ preliminary numbers growth is accelerate again after a slow 1st Q due to bad weather.
Last Q eps started looking better with eps of $0.22 vs $0.16 in 2009
For the 1st 9 months eps were only $0.45 vs $0.44 in 2009 gaap figures.
Now they say due to the strong acceptance of new products released in the 4th Q 2010 EPS will be $1.04 on a non-gaap basis.
That puts non-gaap eps over $0.50 in the 4th Q we won't no the exact numbers until they file audited results but with a current runrate north of $2.00 that speak well that 2011 results will again be excellant with more new products being launched in the 1st Q & late in 2011.
A runrate of $2.00+ is probably not substainable but another 40-50% increase in eps in 2011 is attainable if future product acceptance is anywhere close to the current known new product trend.
I remember after they reported 2009 results of $0.62 vs $0.29 the year before the pps got to $6.99 for a very brief time.
What can we expect when they report 2010 audited results because the current pps is well south of $6.99 as of today.
Maybe after another good report in the 1st Q against comparible bad numbers in 2009's 1st Q will get us back to that previous high.
With the current avoidance of r/mergers by investors who knows what to expect anymore.
However at some point wkbt's growth will get noticed if it continues.
If wkbt were a U.S. corp. growing like this a pps of $30 would seem reasonable to expect.
I am actually thinking about investing more in U.S equities in the future & will not invest anymore of my 60% cash in China r/mergers until they receive a little respect.
The current pps of wkbt is a bit underdone.imo
I am glad the SEC only found this minor infraction which had no effect on cashflow.
So reported eps for 2009 were adjusted down to $0.12 from the previous reported $0.15 due to warrants not being expense properly.
HFGB is a play on $20 million of additional capacity coming on line to service a growing backlog.
I am glad to see they are taking this time to get their books in order.
This may turn out to be a buying opportunity although I will not be buying anymore Chinese stocks until the market values them fairly.
No material effect on cashflow but hfgb is restating earnings for 2009 & the 1st 3 Q's of 2010.
Read todays filing after the close.
Seems 2009 eps will be restated @$0.12 down from the $0.15 reported while 2010 eps may increase somewhat.
After full dilution 2010 eps will probably be $0.19-$0.20 imo.
I still feel the longterm looks bright for HFGB as they add $20 million in new capacity in the 2nd half of 2011.
At its current pps which is pricing HFGB with no regard to its growth previous or restated I will continue to hold my shares even though this may cause a lower pps in the short term.
By receiving a International Travel License UTA has gained not only another source of future revenue & growth but this will also increase margins since they will no longer have to pay a fee to others.
The fee will instead be paid to UTA.
I do wonder why some Institutions like Par have decided to sell their position at a time when the future looks so bright.
I realize its been a uphill battle for all Chinese r/mergers with p/e ratios continuing to shrink while growthrates continue strong.
I also believe we are very close to rock bottom values & the shorts are running thin on targets to hit although they did a good job on cagc today.
Or was it just the effects on cagc products from the long draught in China.
I am looking forward to UTA reporting on time sometime next month although a date has yet to be released to my knowledge.
RedChip Virtual Conference today & tomorrow.
WKBT just finished its presentation;
It was basically the same information available on their website & I heard nothing that I wasn't already aware of.
They did comfirm that 2010 revenue was $77.8 million with net income of $31.2 million although eps was not verified.
She mentioned that current revenue capacity is $107 million & that TianFang is operating at 35% & Weikang at 50% of capacity.
I believe if the above numbers on total capacity - $77.8 million in 2010 revenue are correct then the two divisions are closer to full capacity than the 35% & 50% numbers she gave.
However overall it was a good presentation considering her basic tongue is Chinese she did a good English presentation of what is available on the website.
I look forward to some of the acquisitions they keep mentioning to increase both product & distribution as she mentioned.
But even more important to increase manufactoring capacity that will probably be needed before yearend 2011 when some products with big potential are slated for launch.[check website for details on expected new products for 2011.]
RedChip if you are reading this how about writing up a research report on wkbt with your opinion since you have had closer contact than the small investors over here in the U.S. tia
When is redchip doing a research report on wkbt.
I would like to compare with my outlook & possibly alter mine since you have been in communication with wkbt management lately.
Also does the preliminary 2010 results given by wkbt take into consideration any shares from the private placement or will those shares show on 2011 results.
I have signed up to listen to the presentation from wkbt.
regards,pappy
Hank the current pps is down to $0.525-0.025 or 4.55% on fairly strong volume with only 5,650 shares bought at the ask while 47,300 were sold at or near the bid showing us one or more of those Chinese merchants is still unloading shares at lower & lower prices.
At the current pace we could get down around $0.47 before demand increases enough to meet supply.
Any thoughts,anyone. I for one am in no hurry to average down my current $0.60+ position even though I know $20M in increased production is on the way to meet the growing backlog.
No I am averaged in around $2.95 & like you have noticed the recent weakness in spite the good 2010 results I expect.
As the current weakness in all China stocks continues going into earnings im holding a 60% cash position that will allow me to pick & choose from among the better posted results.
The pps for hfgb wkbt uta all expected to report excellant results seem to be holding back as well.
I don't believe the shorts can hold stocks down in this space much longer & I fully expect the one's with trusted audited 2010 results that give the best 1st qtr results will move up strong after reporting 1st Q results.
If my thoughts are correct we have a bit more time to decide where to put unused dollars.
I believe nuin's 1st Q results will be among the better one's reported due to increasing supply to meet demand.
That was a nice report from TPI & Investors better wake up & smell the roses before UTA releases their results.
As for WKBT that small private placement done @$2.40 is giving investors a chance to establish a position very cheap before most investors are exposed to 2010 audited results & 30%+ annual growth probably for the next decade.
I haven't been in LTUS for quite a while because I didn't like the balance sheet & how they over extended themselfs in Mongolia.
I understand they are in the process of correcting their past plan of action so it may also be a current value buy.
Hopefully ltus will continue its revenue growth & substain it at 30% as many in the China pharm. area have been able to do.
The pharm. field will be consolidating some going forward & I expect WKBT to take on a bigger role in doing that later on this year & next
as they increase manufactoring ability for 2012 & beyond,,,seek to broaden the product line & distribution network.
WKBT is my #1 pick in its field but TPI & LTUS are becoming more interesting as is NUIN & HFGB.
Functional health drinks production started in the 4th qtr are starting to reach more distribution points.
Alcoholic beverages started trial production in Q1 2011 these high margined products will be adding increasing revenue as 2011 unfolds.
Next month we will get a glimps into the early acceptance of these newer products when 2010 audited results are released.
I expect that nuin will be announcing that they are applying for a exchange listing sometime this year in order to reach out for institutional sponsership. imo
"Gaps closed"
Yes I agree & hopefully the strong downside momentum of last week that saw the pps dip $0.50 to $2.60 on fairly strong volume is about to reverse.
Due I would think to that since closed pp @$2.40 buyers have been only willing to buy at or around that pps in spite the strong forward guidance & $1.04eps expected to be reported for 2010 sometime next month.
That pp caused me to make my last buy @$2.40 & I have given no thought to buying more with the strong downside volume that is know occuring.
However this psychological factor is causing investors including myself to overlook the "big picture." wkbt should have a p/e ratio higher than 2 when you consider the strong balance sheet & large R&D budget that along with acretive acquisitions should allow WKBT to grow @ 30%+ clip for the rest of this decade.
The question investors are asking themselves is why WKBT did a pp at a 20% discount when they claim to have $30M+ in cash?
I think it was to broaden stock ownership & pay for promotion of new products & I.R. expenses leaving the $30M+ for both R&D & planned acquisitions after listing occurs.
Some however obviously doubt WKBT has the cash they claim to have.
I would say to those that have doubt's,,WKBT has been very cashflow positive since becoming a public company & carries very little A/R on the books meaning they get payed up front on delivery of their wholesale products.
AOB in its earlier bb days also had a large amount of cash but liked to keep that money in reserve while doing a pp simular to what WKBT did to raise even more cash for immediate needs.
The only difference being AOB like most all China stocks carried much higher A/R than WKBT.
Carrying low A/R as a percentage of total revenue should cause WKBT to have a higher not lower p/e ratio than other China stocks with lower growth rates & far worse balance sheets.
WKBT & NUIN look like the kind of hidden gems I like to find that seem about to leave the bb.
And I intend to raise those position as they continue to deliver even as I decrease my overall positions in China stocks.
Harley I 1st owned uta when it was a newly listed bb stock selling for $0.50 a share I posted a $5.00 target pps on the Investors Village M.B.
which I was lucky to see it reach the same year.
Back then China r/mergers were not under constant short attack. I believe stocks like uta that have large institutional sponsership to go with outstanding growth & a major exchange listing can reach a p/e ratio of 10 especially since uta has already put short fraud charges to rest.
As for wkbt a bb stock growing much faster than uta currently which also has a acceptable audit firm I am only looking for it to attain a p/e of 5 giving it a target pps of $5.20 until it gets exchange listing & strong institutional sponsorship like uta already has.
My target for hfgb has been reduced to $1.00 or 5x expected fully diluted eps of $0.20 however both wkbt & hfgb need to quit selling stock at a 20% discount in order to even reach my targets.
UTA did the same thing last year which left the door open to short attacks later all charges were proved false accept the fact they sold cheap shares when they seemed to have no need for the cash ,,,same as what wkbt did that led to investor questioning the need to do such a stupid thing.
At least hfgb had a reason[to increase revenue capacity by $20M] However they can't also pay vendors with stock instead of cash & expect that they won't dump the stock on the market.
Wow $2.65 makes me wrong as I thought $2.67 after being tested many times today would prove to be the bottom.
Sure not acting like a stock with the 2010 results WKBT has projected on a preliminary basis.
Hindsight says I should have taken profits @$4 & maybe getting ready to rebuy once more since the gap up has filled.
Now however I think I will await actual yearend results since no one seems to want buy above $2.40 without a bunch of pump n dump.
UTA a little green in a sea of red today...
UTA put a short unfounded attack down late last year showing that the shorts were the actual frauds.
UTA still has a rather large amount of shorts but that has been countered by growing institutional support now over 30%.
When UTA was 1st attacked by shorts the pps was over $12 as i recall so the unpopularity of Chinese r/mergers has allowed institutions to buy in cheap.
However the records of most of the institutional investors involved in UTA show they make longterm investments in depressed issues with strong fundamentals.
A lot of investors have gone to the sidelines some swearing never to return,,,however never is a longtime.
When they see a stock like UTA breakout to the upside & I believe only a bit more volume is needed for that to occur I bet they will be back.
Once that occurs other undervalued stocks in our space should also get a play.
But it would help if like UTA they got listed,upgraded auditors,expect strong future results,and put short claims to rest & found strong institutional support to go along with a large insider open market buy.
My target $12 before yearend but remember that is just one old farts opinion.
Nice to see this little patch of green in my portfolio's sea of red.
True the volume is on the light side but uta is still flashing its intent to go higher as 2011 unfolds.
Lets see shorts are still around to a lessor degree as strong hands continue to chew up the float on any signs of weakness.
And why not the pps was taken down by the short attacks that proved unfounded but yet the pps has not recovered to the extent it dropped in spite a rosey future outlook.
The reason we are still far below the 52 week highs is simple "most" everyone is ignoring Chinese r/mergers regardless of the news.
However with over 30% of the float in savy institutional hands & a good part of the rest out of the hands of trader & into the hands of strong supporters of uta it won't take much to break the upper end of the price channel uta currently is in.
There is a lot of sideline money waiting to enter our space having hit the sidelines because of all the short attacks that have had a lot of overall success in scaring the wits out of would be investors.
The short attacks are finding far fewer legitimate scams to attack to the point they are becoming the scams by making false claims against legitimate companies like uta & probably ccme.
As these short claims continue to weaken I see uta's chart getting stronger & I bet once it breaks out a lot of sideline money will be buying 1st uta & then other worthy stocks that have long been depressed.
target $12 well before yearend.
The only news I am aware of I have already stated we have a sellar out there willing to sell at or below the bid to unload shares.
Look at the volume today & almost 90% is sellar volume @ the bid.
I don't know who this sellar is but I bet it's one of the Chinese that got paid with stock that wanted cash instead.
I think would be buyers know this & are waiting for a even lower pps to enter there bids.
I was looking at my stocks performance today.
I was up for a change after 3 really bad days in a row.
Only two of my China stocks were down uta & wkbt.
So far those two had outperformed in 2011 so I assume some were taking the few profits they had off the table.
I am awaiting yearend & 1st qtr results to see if that has a impact on our space.
regards,pappy
$2.88-$0.22 on somewhat below avg. volume of late.
Technically that closed the gap on the way up @$2.90 so now what.
Do we continue to retrace to the closed pp price of $2.40 once more or preceed back above $4.00 & seek Nasdaq listing ahead of posting 2010 results.
Either way wkbt has been bouncing up & down like a yoyo.
Yong has shown outstanding growth as has CAGC however China lack of rain will slow revenue growth going forward.imo
As for CSGH i owned it when revenue & earnings were growing fast however currently that is not the case.
I like the big revenue growers that are cheap & all 3 of the above mentioned are cheap its the other half of the equation that bothers me currently.
At some point these 3 will be great turn around candidates & could actually become amigos once more.
Different opinions make a market & this is mine.
I currently have no position in ccme but do have a position in many others like uta wkbt nuin that have also been hurt by the continued short attacks.
Some of the short attacks have been valid [case in point rino] however I don't believe ccme which has a vast number of ambulance chaser lawyers on the scene after last week fiasco is in that category.
I noticed that the Shapiro lawfirm which has a good track record in security case convictions is actually investigating the shorts & their conspiracy to co-attack ccme during a time of less likely response from management.
Since the SEC continues to ignore the small investor who is the one that always comes out on the short end of the stick I will be watching with interest the outcome of the Shapiro investigation.
This case is not about just ccme its about all Chinese R/Mergers & whether small investors myself included will continue to invest in this space.
The playing field has alway favored the large investor & probably alway will but I believe these shorts have stepped over the line & do indeed need to be punished instead of the small investors they just got thru robbing. imo
Just seeing some kind of justice being attained for the many ccme investors who lost large sums would give me a great feeling.
But the good it would do for our space in general by letting shorts no when they get money via false accusations they need to give it back+ penalties that fit the crime.
Very disappointing to see ckgt continue to trade under $0.90 & hfgb trade under $0.60 with the growth I see ahead for both these rapid growing small companies with a product the World needs & being the China leader in providing it with quality.
LZEN seems to be holding up today.
Every country needs its tandy.LOL
Why does cpqq upgrading to a top 10 auditor concern you.
I think its a move in the right direction.
Now if they can just start picking up the revenue & earnings growth a bit I might even increase my position.
AJGH On Rodman TV reaffirms 2010 revenue $90M net income at least $9M or $0.29eps.
http://www.rodm.tv
LZEN just went public on Nasdaq late last year @$4.. They just reported 2010 yearend Sept 30th results.
They recycle used leather goods into finished products.
They are in the process of expanding their production lines.
Maybe the tandy of China in the making worth a look.
Presently on my watch list while I await 1st qtr results to confirm 2011 growth will continue.
As i am very cautious about adding to my China stocks at the present time while staying with my 5 amigos for 2011.
I have been adding more wkbt on the dips as this one has the makings of a major winner in Chinas growing pharm. industry as the Chinese government continues to support health care reform by spending the big bucks. jmho
regards,pappy
While I didn't like that the private placement was done @$2.40 it did increase the float by over 2M shares.
A bigger float was needed to attract institutional interest once listing occurs.
I haven't took the time to look at the impact on stated preliminary eps estimate of $1.04 if any.
Since the pp wasn't completed until after 2010 results I assume the extra shares won't show until 2011 financial results.
It will be interesting how they proceed once listed as they have said they have a number of acquisitions they are considering after listing occurs.
Listing & institutional support could really get the pps moving in the right direction as I see no reason that wkbt won't become a institutional favorite as they try to enlist their money for planned growth via acquisition further increasing the float while becoming a much bigger force in Chinas pharm. industry.
Consolidation of the China pharm. industry is coming & wkbt with its strong organic growth thru 10% R&D spending developing a steady flow of new products will be in good position to grow in that direction also.
I maybe getting ahead of things since the pps needs to go up a bit more & once 2010 audited results get investor attention I agree we should be around $5.
Good luck to wkbt investors & hang in there as I believe wkbt has a very bright future.
$3.55+$0.29
Some might say wkbt is having a good day.
However it looks to me like they need to get off the bb in order to get noticed & get the respect of having institutional investors aboard.
I would think any stock with this kind of bottomline growth 2008eps$0.29 2009eps$0.62 2010eps$1.04projected 2011eps$1.45 middle of projected forecast could get to $4.16 or 4x 2010 eps.
That should get wkbt listed on Nasdaq since they have a outstanding balance sheet with strong cashflow & very little A/R & a reliable auditor doing the books.
No stock can give us 100% assurance that it is not a fraud but this is the biggest table pounder I have found in over 50 years of investing.
True this company is based in China but still I like the odds of being right.
Just looking at the impact of new products launched in the 4th qtr with many more being launched in the current 1st qtr &scheduled for later in 2011 as well.
For the 4th qtr they expect to report almost $36M in revenue with net income over $16M or $0.51eps on about 2.5M more shares outstanding.
According to numbers taken off wkbt website in the 1st 9 months they had revenue of $41,878,410 with net income of $14,803,266 or $0.53eps.
If these are the actual audited numbers shown in March that will be awesome.
They are also projecting 30-50% revenue growth in 2011 & if that proves to be the case they will need to add to available capacity by yearend.
According to information obtained off their website I believe they plan to do some acquisitions before yearend to attain additional manufactoring capabilities that may also add to some product & distribution growth as well.
According to a poster on yahoo redchip gets a bonus 5,000 shares if the pps of wkbt gets to $5.30.
The Dow & U.S. markets in general will probably continue the Friday correction a while longer.
And it is true jada did better than the market Friday however that was the case with a lot of small-cap China stocks that had already been beaten to a pulp before Friday.
Still jada has a uphill battle if it is to continue gaining from here.
They have no auditor & past financial statements are not reliable.
And management instead of saying they will take steps to correct none SEC compliance have remained silent.
This silence at a time when action needs to be taken in my opinion is not a proper course of action.
I am sure a lot of investors have tried to communicate with both the company &I.R.
Has anyone gotten a answer to any of the questions investors must have.
If nothing else how is the business going. [are they collecting A/R or adding new customers,,,Are the remaining customer going to place or pay for additional orders,,,Will the cash a non-reliable report says the company has be verified by a reputable auditor.
Lots of questions & until I get some answers I will not throw anymore money jada's way as the risk of jada being a fraud is not in my favor.
They did mention reporting in March but didn't give a day.
Malc & Harley,
Thanks for your reply on ajgh.
They state that they collect A/R in 60 days time so even though 4th qtr revenue is guided to be higher A/R growth should slow.
I will wait to see year end results before deciding if I want to own shares in ajgh & a lot will depend on what they show for A/R.
Malc my adult boys & grandkids all call me pops.
I had a good friend who died a while back everyone called pappypowell & thats where I got the idea to use pappy for my handle.
AJGH maybe a stock to add to the index.
Today was not a good day for AJGH as it fell to $0.85 -$0.16 or 15.84%.
I have been watching this stock for a while & although A/R have been growing they plan to collect A/R within 60 days.
2010 guidance calls for revenue of $90M with net income of $9M or $0.29 eps.
This is a company with a short operating history but eps have been growing sequentially in spite a large increase in shares outstanding.
1st qtr eps was only $0.03 followed by $0.07 in qtr2 & $0.08 in qtr3 so if they make guidance qtr4 eps will be $0.11.
They plan to boost revenue to $150M with 10% net margins in 1 or 2 years. & are in the process of adding 400,000 tons of production per year in two stages by late 2011.
I have not bought yet but with a market correction come's opportunity for those with a large cash position awaiting this correction to buy selected bargains.
I am starting to turn bullish on ckgt near to mid term....
As the market makes a strong move down today ckgt is holding its pps on light volume.
Look at the chart ckgt is in the process of consolidating after a downtrend that has taken out all but the remaining fools or strong hands which ever the case proves to be.
CKGT has already given preliminary strong revenue numbers for 2010 & expects 20% of 2011 revenue to come from high margined cigarette production.
If 2010 results show a decrease in A/R along with increasing cashflow that could very well jump start the pps.
As I said earlier I am tired of waiting for the long awaited release of H&B products & if the deal with the TAIWAN company doesn't lead to a partnership involving ckgt's H&B products I will take my CKGT money over to NUIN.
But even so I look to sell my CKGT shares at a higher pps than the current pps before departing.
It is my understanding that the $30M is earmarked for R&D expenses & a acquisition plan to commence after they get listed.
As for the private placement they expect to use that for advertisement of new products.
Why these China companies do private placements with so little regard to pps I still don't understand when it seems a better plan would be to use the money already available for advertisement & then use cashflow along with private placements after getting listed when institutional money should be more readily available to do acquisitions.
Traderfan, Assuming he is right & this was a pump n dump by someone with a large amount of shares to dispose of.
Where did this vast amount of shares come from?
Was this pump n dump done to market the rest of the $2.40 private placement not originally sold?
If that was the case I would think those shares were sold as wkbt made its large rally up from that $2.40 level & that yesterday & today's drop were caused by profit taking & investors panic from the fast retreat of the pps.
It really doesn't matter as long as 2010 preliminary results & 2011 guidance are for real which I believe to be the case since I am invested in wkbt longterm.
It does effect how one swingtrades around a core position & as liquidity improves so should one's ability to move in & out with trading shares.
The stock bounced right back up when it hit $3.45.
Lets see how the rest of this week plays out.
Today was a healthy shakeout after a large size run with buy & sell volume about even.
Up til today buy volume has swamped sell volume.
Remember wkbt has a rather small float & a lot of that float has more than likely transfered into strong hands lately considering the guindance & surprized good 2010 preliminary results.
I haven't sold any core shares since I mentioned buying earlier & don't intend to while earnings are in this magnificant accelerated trend.
Not even my trading shares added since this latest uptrend started will be let go until a reasonable multiple of current eps is met because the supply demand factor is in my favor as long as volume continues strong.
One thing I missed at 1st glance on CBP.
They were exempt from paying taxes in 2010.
So even if they increase earnings & revenue in 2011 having to pay tax on earnings will limit the bottomline.
That maybe a factor in todays decline.