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Positive futures set up the top of the wave up. I doubt they'll be positive by the time the market opens, but if they are, it's more of a bearish indicator than a bullish one.
S&P Friday Close < 1090
This week should be all red.
I did good. Started with $500 and made 2500% in 6 days of trading, then lost 50-60% of my value the next 3!
I lost more than 50% of my account averaging down my calls on VXX the past 2 days. If the market crashes next week I'll quickly make it all back. If it merges with rising Italian bond concerns and sparks a flash crash, I'll be golden. 100% short on the market now, down to my last penny.
edited: And wouldn't that essentially be a valid instigating event for the flash crash I anticipate happening next week?
If I recall correctly - don't margin calls and forced liquidations drop the market? Wouldn't people be scrambling to sell their positions in order to protect against the people being forced to sell their positions on tuesday?
Won't this essentially mean that monday and tuesday hundreds of thousands of positions will be liquidated?
SPY trading the bottom of the channel up. If support breaks, it will break down and complete the head and shoulders wave 3 pattern down. If we ride the channel up the bear flag is invalidated. I am leveraged in to a sell off, as ideally i try to trade the technical and fundamental play, not the manipulated everything is a trap play.
If the market turns down and starts pulling away from that channel, we should see a strong drop, and not a bounce.
my opinion: Flash Crash next week
I think its just resetting the stochastics for the next leg down.
Before you go long on the SPY, might want to look at this:
119
Well that's not the next support level, but its my next target level.
I see spy 119 monday morning. Possibly even today. Is that crazy?
Shorting tomorrow at the open hard with everything I've got left.
Looks like Red was right. Negative futures transformed into the positive based on the potential upcoming collapse of the Greek government. This market is so volatile! There's a cliff approaching.
The most randomly intense thing I can think of, that has a chance of happening, but 95% probably won't, would be a military coup of the Greek interim government, to guarantee Greece leaves the Eurozone.
Wave for the morning:
According to RedDragon and his wave calls, the C wave move up, which preludes the major drop, did not go up high enough yesterday. He anticipates that we'll have a positive gap filling into the green morning, before the market begins to sell and sell off hard into the down wave.
Futures were very negative in the dead of morning, and now they've backed off from the days lows and are only moderately down. Some people must have woken up. I would prefer to see a major sell off which continues throughout the course of the entire day, or if wave C really does need to complete, then a quick pop exhaustion rally in the up direction in the morning, followed by falling off the cliff.
Freek default is inevitable at this point. There are all those gaps still left to fill from the upside moves, and the down wave ought to be inevitable. I think futures will turn more negative into the morning, but I'll take anything that drops the market significantly at this point.
Even though I did this play, I kind of feel like I got in it too early. I would have waited until 2:10 to buy the spread but I got anxious.
Those are my favorite trades and things I look for every time. There's always a company that's exploding or imploding because of news, and the $ you make on out of the money spreads is hand over fist. It's all about picking the right ones, and QCOM is sitting right in the middle of that range. It has room on both sides, so I bet it'll work out. Plus if the market starts tanking & qcom's news is sour it might drop hard. 40$ is a possibility, and 150$ @ .10 raised up to $4 is $6 grand
MACD on the SPY reaching neutral. I smell a rollover. Man, I will be ecstatic if I hit the nail on the head. I've assimilated as much as I can, looked at the candlesticks, and I can't shake the feeling, big down. Tomorrow and Friday.
I just mirrored this play. Let's do it! Big swing for QCOM! out of the money calls and puts with equal capital in both. WAY more puts!
Might be an ABC move. Wave A down, just completed 10 minutes ago, then wave B up to 230, then the big wave C down to turn us red for the day and beyond.
Yeah. This move would definitely be the oddball out. But consider that times have changed a lot since then. That was before we did the other rounds of QE, and we're at the verge of Greece leaving the EU in a default.
I think that move makes perfect sense, though I'm still surprised by todays action. I thought we would have a lower open, a rally all day, and the crash at 230. Instead we open higher, rally then look like we're falling into the meeting. That might instigate a quicker trip over the cliff edge.
Friday? Next friday? End of november? Soon. If they really wanted to screw everybody they'd wait until the end of options expirations day for november.
Though the wave chart that we're in, we could see it as soon as tomorrow if it actually rolls over. The markets kind of rigged, so technical analysis often fails. This time I've leveraged my position hard so I'm almost all in.
I would be bullish if the fed statement said big round of QE3 coming and the printing presses were already running hot. I think that everything the fed has been doing has been preventing the crash that's upcoming, rather than actually levitating the market upwards. I think we're in a relief rally that's really a trap to force shorts to cover and longs to go longer so they can trick everybody and make the most $.
BOUGHT some VXX 50 weekly calls @.39 and some Nov 50 calls @2.4
This is an average down for me from yesterday.
I'm thinking 1090 on the S&P but it would still shock me.
Have all the expectations you want. I'm going strictly by the technical play. The chart is screaming major wave down starting after the meeting at 230 today. I'm leveraged into this move pretty strong so I hope I'm right.
Running out of steam. Market rollover soon. Loaded up on averaged down calls on VXX.
I'm still waiting for the flash crash.
Wave Theory says S&P 1090 within days.
AH Dead Cat Bounce? Wed market crash?
Megaphone pattern shows SPY at the top, about to make a long correction to a lower low. QQQ shows a sell signal today with a lower open and a close under the benchmark.
Is this AH garbage just some hopefuls that think the bottom was set, as opposed to the second shoe dropping?
If the referendum was cancelled, then I could see a rally. But at the moment volatility is increasing and I can't shake the opinion that we're going to correct down violently tomorrow / thursday.
government collapse won't mean a default. It will mean the referendum is moot, and it might scuttle the debt deal or delay it by months.
Greek government collapse = market sharp down?
Followed some trades and bought XOM 77.5 call @.73
And I bought QIHU nov 17.5 PUT @ 2
I say sell them all, and buy a 1/10th position on the longside intraday.
You're bullish on DNDN?
BOUGHT WEEKLY VXX 42 PUT @.581
good put!!!! I was looking at that trade!
SOLD weekly VXX 40 CALL @6.45
Woot