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SPY 30, Took out that pink dotted line enough that there's nothing holding price up here and the a and b waves are equal length of the larger B move up. The fork is showing good support/resistance at the ml. It's a bullish seasonal timeframe, but I think we go down from here.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t7386193148c&a=423085093&r=1640353646589&r=1640353893125
SPY 1 hr: the green median line was resistance and if we were to reach it today then we will probably go above next week. If we stay below as I have the red fork positioned then a good chance for continued down nest week. If I read the pattern correctly we need to reach or exceed the yellow reversed fork median line which we did not so I believe the down move to complete B is unfinished
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p60538504344&a=350704571&r=1640263386678&r=1640263549646
SPY is holding at the top of the fork, until it breaks up out I repositioned the QQQ and MID to current
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53333733659&a=423085093&r=1640192270808
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t4805649060c&a=412962100&r=1640116360756&r=1640116931274
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24MID&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p90388635490&a=284141053&r=1640116502608&r=1640117027017
To match QQQ and MID gains, SPX should look like this
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t7298298568c&a=307755350&r=1640117543987
QQQ and MID look like they need a good move up to the upper corner of the forks
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t4805649060c&a=412962100&r=1640116360756&r=1640116931274
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24MID&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p90388635490&a=284141053&r=1640116502608&r=1640117027017
The upper and lower pink dotted lines need to be taken out with the lower first.
After a small bounce today,No change in final down target
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p74419917386&a=423085093&r=1638907924062&r=1638907955119
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p60538504344&a=350704571&r=1638907996288
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p92685994849&a=434502557&r=1638908035979
Hi RCKS, yep, your chart is updating and looks good
No change in target
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p74419917386&a=423085093&r=1638907924062&r=1638907955119
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p60538504344&a=350704571&r=1638907996288
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=IWM&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p92685994849&a=434502557&r=1638908035979
SPY 1 hr chart going out to the end of year. Here's my take. From A on has the classic look of an extended B wave and we're heading down to complete B (which would be 2,3 and 4 in E wave) and a final C will start to a new high. The pink dotted line shows a TL that needs to be taken out with that final C wave. I have the lower fork set at about 425 SPY and think that's probably the lowest range and could be higher. Comparing this chart to INDU or NYA or IWM has a wide range of variables and doesn't help pinpoint the bottom.
The small down channel used for the timeline of this drop can easily break down into a faster drop and finish earlier, or even later.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&st=2020-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=t5473154483c&a=350704571&r=1638710218188&r=1638710434912
Hi RCKS,
I'm OK, thanks. You?
SPX chart 2009 to current looks like it has a complete pattern to me. The first rise A in S wave or 1 in E wave (667 to 1220) and the final (2192 to 4481) C or 5. This would suggest a deep corrective next.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p37638881828&a=694736817&r=1629318415162
DJA along with all the other indices took out its triple top and there's no Happy Family happening to predict any more up.
The market has given Trump an all time high send off and I'm wondering now if it's (today) an all time high for biden's term?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24DJA&p=60&st=2018-01-01&i=p02457069650&a=400316455&r=1611162527533
Some history on temporary failures of the Happy Family Theory (when one member makes a major move the others will follow)
Sometimes a member will fail in the near term, but will catch up in the future. NYA 2012 failure to exceed the 2011 high until 2013
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYA&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=t6003522928c&a=707749413&r=1609422269958&r=1609422080965
COMPQ and NDX 2020 failure to exceed 2018 low.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p40223498974&a=714935128&r=1609423043827&r=1609422682334
Will DJA take out the triple top as the other members have or wait for the future?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24DJA&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p04302939509&a=731702306&r=1609422900794
Happy New Year,
My take: I think we are at or near a top, most indices had triple tops that were recently taken out as expected with one exception, DJA did not and as DJA is similar to NYA in unpredictable, expectations at least in the short term the triple top may or may not get taken out soon or in the future?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24DJA&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p04302939509&a=731702306&r=1609420610991
Next is an important index (BKX) for a more clear and simple view of the wave patterns since the 2009 low. I have a very steep and scary drop in store, however the banking sector has a habit of doing that on a regular basis.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BKX&p=120&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p61848212725&a=347632796&r=1609419339606
SPX with a few more ranting notes in the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=p60556405796&a=694736817&r=1609420518469
SPX 30 min: at red fork upper tine resistance, although the upper BB is a magnet as well
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p83313749891&a=307755350&r=1588691014423&r=1588691116912
Now we exceeded JK's upper target by just a few points and had the first move down. Taking out the Qs 2018 Dec low is back in focus and looking at Amazons chart, I think it's very possible for it to do the same
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2020-06-01&i=p68772363176&a=694298394&r=1588327683572&r=1588327760498
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AMZN&p=60&st=2009-01-01&en=2020-07-31&i=p14837873910&a=596492883&r=1588327939727&r=1588328028888
Hi RCKS,
I did some work on the FANGM theory influencing the Happy family over the weekend. Two things of note, first, the Qs typically have a deeper correction than SPX as a percentage as evidence in the Dec 2018 drop (about 6% more than SPX) which had the FANGM stocks then as well as now. Second, the Q equal weight chart below did not take out the Dec 2018 low.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQEW&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2020-05-29&i=p58773679344&a=737242192&r=1586790701308
Great call JK. Here's a QQQ chart with a predicted 1.618 x wave A taking out Dec 2018 by a couple points
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=QQQ&p=30&st=2019-03-27&en=2020-04-30&i=p01627692822&a=412962100&r=1586445957268
That would put SPX just under 2000
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p46113548150&a=307755350&r=1586446077817&r=1586446128022
I think that's it for up, nice call JK.
SPX 60 min with new target 1889
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-06-01&i=p63361724866&a=256257406&r=1586287856147
SPY 30 min chart, no change from last post, target below SPX 1800
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p19586646629&a=423085093&r=1586007605793
SPX 30 and 60 minute chart:
todays gain put the wave c at a near exact 1.618 x a and a great looking wave pattern. If C down goes 1.618 of A down the target will be 1769
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p61840708687&a=307755350&r=1585261986206
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-06-01&i=p50179669887&a=256257406&r=1585262246624
Hi RCKS,
Hope you're well and avoiding the outbreak.
COMPQ still needs to take out the Dec 2018 low and we could count on that without the FANG theory propping up the NDX. There is about a 10% difference as of now in NDX and COMPQ distance to the low. Here's the COMPQ chart:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24COMPQ&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-03-31&i=t3240665672c&a=296516480&r=1585058681554&r=1585058810971
NDX 60 minute chart as it's the key chart in the Happy Family play we're watching. Now it looks like we're going to make the c of B up and it looks like it will be about a 12% up move. Then C down Still need to take out Dec 2018 low. EDIT: C down after this up move looks to be able to be in line for a 1.618 x wave A target surpassing the Dec 2018 low
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-04-30&i=p33464471333&a=206458422&r=1585046487039&r=1585046536476
Happy Family theory is the rule for now, COMPQ and NDX needs to take out the Dec 2018 low as some other members already have, RUT,NYA, and INDU. NDX still has about 20% drop to do which would put SPX down to 2100 or lower. The wave down we're in is a "C" wave and typically is (or looks) like a five wave structure and I put a dotted red line as a possible likeness
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NDX&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-04-30&i=t9302234505c&a=206458422&r=1584116492352&r=1584116674739
The recent move has cleared up some uncertainty with my interpretation of the wave pattern from 2009. I see the finally of this down move completing the "B" as shown in the SPX chart below and the start of the final "C" up which will be yet to be seen how far and long it goes. The "A" although it looks small in the chart nearly doubled the SPX value and "C" should probably do something similar.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=240&st=2009-01-01&en=2021-12-31&i=t1333255756c&a=694736817&r=1584117223342
JK, nice call. Looking to finish that drop I called way to early now, target 2860. I also agree with Northam that we go higher into the year.
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-12-03&en=2020-02-28&i=t6628010698c&a=256257406&r=1577022548942&r=1577022793302
Also from Stockcharts "Recently, the Russell company has changed the terms of their license agreements in a way that prevents us from continuing to display their indexes on our website in a cost-effective manner. We have tried to work with them to allow us to continue displaying their information, but - currently - we are no longer able to do so. We apologize for whatever inconvenience this causes you.
We recommend changing to either the equivalent S&P indexes or the ETFs that track the Russel indexes in order to track market capitalization-based equities. For example, instead of $RUT, you can now use $SML or IWM. There are actually significant advantages to using those alternatives in terms of consistency, frequency of updates, and additional small-cap coverage.
If Russell changes the terms of their license, allowing us to display their data in a cost-effective manner, we will do so. Unfortunately, currently, that does not look likely."
From Stockcharts "Recently we have had to remove the $TICK market indicator from our site. Our data vendor no longer provides this data to us and we have not been able to find a reliable alternative source. "
Update, I think we still need another move down. I have the two potential down forks as 2760 t0 2780 and maybe ending during options ex 3rd week of Oct
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-09-17&en=2019-12-31&i=p35958689568&a=688942367&r=1570277188807&r=1570277582620
JK, I was working the pattern like this chart which has 2770ish, although my last chart with 2700ish looks better. Whichever it hits, I think it will be before it takes out the triple tops above. There are some other charts to keep an eye on for clues as it approaches 2800 to help, INDU, MID and RUT
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-01-01&en=2020-02-28&i=p74455687889&a=256257406&r=1569015319781&r=1569015423813
4 charts, NAMO is at a top, VIX is at a bottom and RUT and SPX show what seems like the way to me. The last couple weeks was a ending c wave and the next 3 moves shown will be increasing degree c waves and lots of volatility. The final down wave is shown as not producing a lower low as last Dec and the entire wave pattern shown will be a butterfly looking reverse head and shoulder
***Fed Reserve announcement Wed will be a market mover.***
I think RUT has too far to go to complete the up move short term and also, I think SPX is too overbought to breach the triple top, therefore the nearterm drop seems to fit best.
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NAMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=20&i=p98294223771&a=238666069&r=1568470947380
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24VIX&p=60&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p42839583122&a=227142001&r=1568470803952
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24RUT&p=120&st=2016-01-01&en=2020-02-28&i=p08795672726&a=495343342&r=1568470433943&r=1568470848434
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-01-01&en=2020-02-28&i=p74455687889&a=256257406&r=1568470454482&r=1568470770747
RUT, take out the triple before this next up move is completed
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24RUT&p=120&st=2018-08-31&en=2019-10-31&i=t4069474932c&a=495343342&r=1565091245036&r=1565091311033
SPX, the lower drop to 2820 will lower the target to a little North of 3100 and maybe as soon as end of month IMO
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-01-01&en=2019-11-29&i=p71173928162&a=256257406&r=1565090870986&r=1565090985780
60 min chart with target out at the latest expected and could be weeks sooner
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2018-01-01&en=2019-11-29&i=p71173928162&a=256257406&r=1565017722178&r=1565017876945
If we hold the 2862 existing low, then the target for "C" will be about 3150ish based on A x 1.618
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&st=2017-03-15&en=2019-08-20&i=p14359567673&a=307755350&r=1565017480913&r=1565017540626
SPX 30 min chart looking like we may have a bottom, although there are targets on the Gleno CCI system at 2851 (140 SMA daily) and 2841 on the monthly that may or may not be reached. I just went long TNA
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&st=2017-03-15&en=2019-08-20&i=t5246867419c&a=307755350&m=o&r=1565016948834
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TNA&p=30&st=2018-05-15&en=2019-08-30&i=t2388226894c&a=316140628&m=o&r=1565017193779
RUT,
Looks like that moderate drop has occurred and may finish today or Mon morning. The red arrow up thru the triple top will happen next.
SPX also has a triple top that needs to be violated
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24RUT&p=120&st=2016-01-01&en=2019-10-31&i=p40115607346&a=495343342&r=1564766086657&r=1564767206254
SPX showing the triple top as well
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2016-01-01&en=2019-10-31&i=p17421773774&a=371613740&r=1563116207989&r=1563116402179
Charts, RUT, INDU:
RUT showing an existing triple and INDU has completed a longer time frame triple as of Friday, Both need to be taken out before the up wave is complete. Good chance of a moderate drop before however?
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24RUT&p=120&st=2016-01-01&en=2019-10-31&i=p40115607346&a=495343342&r=1563113147262&r=1563115194254
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=60&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=t4199613057c&a=422108943&r=1563113003849&r=1563113123606
My chart has a 553 point gain for "A" and just saying, C should be a minimum of 1.618 x A = 895 points. If the drop (or even the previous drop low at 2346) as start of "C" then your 3200 target should (might) be good. Another targeting issue may be the percent gain of "A" which was a whopping 80% gain and if "C" were to match it would be 1000 points higher than your 3200? Just saying, if trade deals were worked out with China and everything else was rosey?
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2009-01-01&en=2019-10-31&i=p76608240220&a=671106850&r=1561041395673&r=1561041622760
This is what I think the wave pattern is now. If correct, we should make a high around end of month or even sooner and INDU should make a new high above 27K as well, then down to a new low, this drop may follow typical down months or some surprise with a dramatic drop? The final C up should/might follow typical presidential election patterns topping at the next election- I think anyway.
http://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&st=2009-01-01&en=2019-10-31&i=p76608240220&a=671106850&r=1560948988082&r=1560949212639