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Right, many are starting to break out...you could almost throw a dart now, just don't hit jdsu <g>.
Yep, they've "stabilized" from 150 to near 200 million the past 4 quarters. I listened to a bit of that conf from yesterday and they said they had lowered this quarter on a sequential basis because the previous quarter had come in much better than expected...and they're being conservative by saying flat to 8% down this quarter...it'd be nice if they could come in at the high end of that.
At least the article mentioned that the stock should be supported here by the fact they have 1.5 billion in cash...3X cash ain't bad.
At least there's a little green in SONS today...I've already have some nice moves on many of mine off the lows...pmcs, rfmd, utsi...amcc starting to play catch up. And then there's my little laggard jdsu <g>. It sure will be fun when that finally pops.
edit: and of course, qcom never stops performing.
Corning Reaffirms Guidance
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10197042.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&am...
"The company also said its telecommunications segment's quarter-to-date sales are stronger than expected,"
I was just looking at jdsu...on dec 29th 03, it was at 3.41, the comp was just crossing 2000. 14 trading days later, jdsu had hit 5.89 while the comp had risen 150 points. I think we've got another 260 points or so on this current comp move into feb. jdsu's chart looks to me like it can do the same thing.
amcc's similar, went from 5.77 to 9.20...it also went from 3.35 to 7.18 in about 7-8 weeks in spring 03.
Just looking at the fact that both these seemed to lag in the past as well.
You had this all layed out over two years ago...we never even needed to mess with the original forecast.
Everything up nicely...except my jdsu <g>.
This is the move to near 2140 I thought would happen a couple days ago... very nice, we shouldn't stop here though. It should just keep going...not at quite the same pace though <g>.
jdsu too...but it looks very similar to the day or two before it took off in dec 03...would be nice to see a similar run the next two months.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=JDSU,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pc50!d20,2!b50!c20!c13!f][vc60]...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=JDSU,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20030901,20040201][pc50!d20,2!b50!...
Cool.
We finally got the up here...just a couple days late. But this looks good...I'd like to see a nice strong close as well.
Also, I'm starting to lean heavily towards going all the way to 2220 in the next two weeks, then falling back to 2153 over the second half of dec, then rocketing in jan towards that 2368-2400. This as opposed to getting 2175 then falling 5%. Key will be what happens when we get 2153 IMO.
I was trying to figure out what we'd do after 2153...I think the chances of 2220 are growing...
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 21091
Date:11/25/2004 10:22:44 AM
Post #of 21265
Hey diesel, happy thanksgiving first of all...hope you have a good one...and everyone else on the board too.
Second, since we did rise yesterday, it still seems to me that we're stuck on the first path towards 2153. All my reviewing a couple days ago may come in handy later, but for now, it seems like it was unnecessary. So now I think in the next two days, we could have a nice up day right thru 2112.
But what I'm looking at right now is some kind of short term peak above 2153 around Dec 6-9...so 7-10 trading days from now. And I still think the sox gets carried up about 6% in that time to 460 (the 300sma). My first target on the comp is 2175, but I'll be watching for higher than that for signs that the pullback is very minor before launching higher. I've still got about a 50/50 chance of a 5% pullback from 2175, or going towards 2220, then falling back to 2153. I think one thing I'll be looking for is if we get 2153, then fall to the 9ema over a couple days, then bust thru 2153...or if we bust thru 2153 on the first attempt. This may provide a sign as to how high we can go above it.
Another day of doing basically nothing...we still didn't break the 9ema, so I'm still hanging on to the 2153 thing. Once again, I'll be looking for a huge move up tomorrow, and for 2153 to be reached in a matter of days...perhaps friday. We're pushing the limits here, but it still looks ok and very possible IMO.
This other stuff I've been researching only comes in if we fall "hard" towards 2070-80 or so in the next day or two.
Ok...that target works for me as well.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 20957
Date:11/21/2004 4:16:34 PM
Post #of 21256
I think we're going to break 2153 in either case (rather than pullback right from it)...we could run all the way to 2220 then fall back to 2153. Or stop at 2175, then fall all the way back to 2070, maybe even 2055. Right now 2023 is out of the picture in what I'm looking at...the only way it comes back in is if we fall further this week and end up getting the 20 day, which is right in that 2023 area.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 20742
Date:11/12/2004 6:52:35 PM
Post #of 21257
No nothing that says we selloff next week. To me, it looks like we just continue on towards 2153. I saw a few days ago something that suggested we may be able to make it above 2100 before we even pullback to the 9ema, so far that still looks possible. I guess at this point I'd just be expecting a pullback to the 9ema in the next several days, and then a surge to 2153. I still think we can get 2153 right about the day before thanksgiving, but maybe it'll go out a few more days. I'll check things out this weekend to see if I can find a way to fit that 2023 in my plan, but right now I don't even see that being hit again for a long, long time.
Sent By: mjk Date: 11/9/2004 9:55:20 AM
I see one possibility here that the 9ema isn't reached until after we've gotten about 2110-2120.
Yes aj...I remember your bullish posts...and I think your current analysis is right about on target...
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: ajtj99 who wrote msg# 27047
Date:6/8/2004 9:09:52 AM
Post #of 37437
That's not outrageous at all. Though I think that 2800-3000 comes later in '05. And we may spend another couple months down here messing with this 1900-2000 area...perhaps all the way through summer. Speaking of patterns, you're exactly right, we're following something that's happened many times in the past (starting from '02), pres election and all...and it's not uncommon to go nowhere all the way through summer, which would mean almost a year of consolidation, then launch in the fall and after a short correction early in '05, have a huge rest of '05. Good suggestion not to short, the risk/reward is not there at these levels. Why not buy and hold for a year, we could have near 1000 points up coming.
"And what was their net worth in 1990 compared to now? What was their income level in 1990 compared to now?"
Who cares...it's much less dramatic if you take into account those minor details <ggg>.
Since we continue to flag out here on the various indices, I've taken the time to look into this other possibility of not getting 2153 this week, but first getting the 20 day etc. The dow just tagged its 20 day, the s&p is real close, so the comp could get it as well...continue to flag out and get it I mean.
Here are the details as far as I can see...we'd still not break probably 2080, but 2060 would be a hard limit. We could continue to move slowly up each week, and get the 9/13ema's on a regular basis during each week, take out 2153 in about another 2 weeks, consolidate above it for another couple weeks into early jan, then take off in jan. This would target 2600+ by june, with no major corrections...3-6% max.
Just another possibility if we don't get a hard move up here anytime this week.
del
LOL!!!
Has Wal Mart's thanksgiving weekend numbers changed your 05 forecast too? It's at least caused me to consider a new path back to the aug lows very soon...it may very well have killed our bull <ggg>.
Consumers Fuel Faster Economic Growth
(I'm posting this just to balance all the "bad" news that gets posted here <g>)
25 minutes ago Business - Reuters
By Glenn Somerville
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Robust consumer spending on cars, furniture and food helped the U.S. economy advance faster than first thought in the third quarter, a government report showed, while underlying inflation was the tamest in decades.
The Commerce Department (news - web sites) said on Tuesday gross domestic product, the measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders, grew at a 3.9 percent annual pace in the three months from July through September, up from 3.7 percent estimated a month ago.
This was the second of three government estimates for quarterly GDP (news - web sites) and beat Wall Street economists' predictions that the third-quarter advance would be unchanged from the first snapshot at 3.7 percent.
The gain marked the sixth successive quarter GDP has expanded at a rate exceeding 3 percent, implying healthy and sustainable growth.
Consumers ratcheted up spending at a 5.1 percent annual pace, more than three times the 1.6 percent rate in the second quarter and the strongest since a 7 percent surge in the fourth quarter of 2001. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the $11-trillion U.S. economy.
MORE RATE RISES LOOM
Analysts said the GDP report was a reassuring sign that growth was on a safe track and added that it gave the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) leeway to keep raising interest rates without fear of choking off growth.
"Really the economy seems to be running at a 4 percent growth rate and that is what this number is pointing out," said Tim Mazanec, a currency strategist with Investors Bank and Trust in Boston. "This should not persuade the Fed to change their measured rate-hike moves."
Inflation data within the GDP report suggested the Fed has little to fear from price pressures.
A key price gauge favored by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) -- the personal consumption expenditure index excluding food and energy costs -- rose at a mild 0.7 percent rate in the third quarter, the smallest pickup since a 0.5 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 1962.
U.S. central bank policy-makers next meet Dec. 14 to mull interest-rate strategy. They have lifted short-term borrowing costs at each of their last four gatherings and many economists expect another increase from a still-low 2 percent federal funds rate to come in December.
The relatively strong GDP number initially helped the battered dollar regain some ground against the euro, while bond prices slipped on expectation of more Fed interest rate rises.
The Commerce Department said damage wreaked by four major hurricanes cut some $80 billion from U.S. corporate profits in the third quarter. After tax, profits fell 2.0 percent in the period, after slipping 0.7 percent in the second.
Business spending on capital equipment remained vigorous, with nonresidential investment -- seen as a proxy for overall corporate investing -- accelerating to a 12.9 percent rate of advance from 12.5 percent in the second quarter.
Equipment and software spending, associated with rising productivity since it involves upgrading computers and increased automation, shot up at a 17.2 percent rate.
Companies added to inventories at $35.9-billion annual rate during the third quarter, down from $61.1 billion in the second quarter. Analysts welcomed this since lean inventories mean less overhang of unsold goods to rein in future production.
"In general, it shows the overall core part of the economy was stronger than we thought initially," said economist Jay Bryson of Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, N.C.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20041130/bs_nm/economy_dc
There are past cases of both of these scenarios, so I don't think we can rule either out at this point. I also think a review of the boards has shown that for weeks now, the majority of folks have been looking for a top, going short, etc...so even though it would appear healthy to do something, it doesn't really matter...it's working like it should...the avg joe isn't confident in this, and the big guys are probably making a killing. We could continue up for the entire 35-40% rally (from the 1750 low) without a 5% correction, then get a 10% correction and everything would be fine. All we need to see is that it's happened in the past...which it has, many times. I still prefer getting 2175 or so, then a 5% correction in dec, then heading up, but I'm not at all sure it's going to happen just like that.
NEC turns to Qualcomm, Ericsson for 3G chipsets
Tue Nov 30, 2004 03:52 AM ET
TOKYO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Japan's NEC Corp. (6701.T: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it planned to buy a package of cellphone chipsets and core software that work on both the third-generation network and 2G technologies from Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ericsson (ERICb.ST: Quote, Profile, Research) .
The move, aimed at cutting development costs and broadening its range of handset models by using technological resources outside the NEC group, is part of the company's effort to turn around its loss-making mobile phones operations.
Chipsets control the core communication function of mobile phones.
As telecoms operators worldwide gradually build up infrastructure for high-speed 3G services, it is imperative for them to offer handsets that are compatible with the advanced format as well as existing networks to maintain area coverage.
NEC, the largest supplier of mobile phones in the domestic market, has already developed a prototype of a new 3G handset based on Qualcomm's chipsets, while it plans to launch 3G phones based on Ericsson's chipsets sometime in the first half of the next business year that starts in April.
Both phones will work on 3G networks based on the W-CDMA format and the current generation networks using GSM and GPRS technologies, which are widely used in Europe and Asia.
NEC, which also plans to develop dual-mode cellphone chips with its semiconductor unit NEC Electronics Corp. (6723.T: Quote, Profile, Research) , aims to sell 6 million mobile phones overseas in the year to next March, including about 1.8 million 3G phones.
NEC did not specify the possible volume or value of packages of chipsets and key software to be purchased from Qualcomm and Ericsson.
Shoring up its mobile phone business is a vital task for NEC, Japan's third-largest electronics maker, after the company in October slashed its operating profit forecast for the year to March by 32 percent to 150 billion yen ($1.46 billion) due to sluggish cellphone sales.
NEC shares closed down 0.52 percent at 569 yen, underperforming the Tokyo stock market's electric machinery index , which fell 0.31 percent. ($1=102.87 Yen)
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh27946_2004-11-30_08-52-51_t13...
Today we got a new closing high on the comp, for the current move since aug I mean. Even though we didn't get the huge up, we got the reversal and green close so I'll just say let's give it another day. These things can sometimes an extra day or two to play out...I remember saying something similar a few weeks ago...to give it another day, and it turned out ok. You could be right and we could get some down to the 9 or even 13ema and it would still be ok as long as we reverse again and close green. In fact, these little excursions down towards the 9/13ema intraday are common, so I'm not worried about it at all. Today's gap fill and approach of the 9ema I expected, but I thought we'd rally much harder afterwards...since we didn't, I'll look for it tomorrow.
This time may be the time it finally deviates from plan 1, but even that is not bad at all. I'm looking real close at that possibility, and I don't see that being any worse than about 2070-2080...and we wouldn't spend a lot of time there. This could even lead to just a slow creep towards the 2153 high over the next 2-3 weeks, basically riding the 9 and 13ema's the whole time, but that would lead to a massive explosion IMO, taking us well above 2400 over then next several months. And there'd be no 5% correction in dec or possibly for months.
So really, I've got a backup plan, but so far, there's been no definite sign that we're going in that direction...if it does, it's still just as bullish as plan 1...so there's really nothing for me to do here.
Don't have to do either...I still think we could reverse and close very green. But yes, we could tag either of those and as long as we reverse and close green, we're still on this first path.
As I said a few days ago, IMO a drop here early in the week is probably more bullish if there is such a thing. Makes that whole 94-96 thing look very possible.
edit: if we reversed and closed green, it would pull up the 9ema, giving it the appearance that it was tagged intraday.
Hey the futs were only up 5 when I posted this, so please no one say I was stating the obvious <g>.
We should be getting close to seeing just what type of "correction" we'll get in Dec. I'll start with saying I'd expect today to fill this gap right away, but reverse and close somewhere near 2140...this is still pointing towards a ~5% correction starting around dec 6-9 from around 2175. If we don't fill the gap and we end up moving higher but closing near the open, I'd start thinking a much stronger dec is possible...with the 9/13ema again being support. Most likely is still to get some kind of peak above 2153 in another week or so IMO.
May be too early to mention, but if the futs hold up like this, we may be in a great position to get that move up thru 2112 tomorrow. If scenario one continues to work, tomorrow could be a monster, 30-40 up.
This is JMO of course...I want 2153 by Weds.
I've been tracking those jdsu charts for weeks...bb's very narrow, ready for a move up anytime. I hope so since I took a decent sized leaps position a couple weeks ago...in addition to those I added in the couple months before that...I can easily see 5-6 in the next few months, similar to the late 03 move...and even higher by 06.
If we start towards 2153 this week and stay on this election year thing, I think wahz is probably right when he said earlier that it may peak in Feb/March. I was looking at things today and realized we're 3 months into this now...I expected this to be fairly symmetrical, meaning the move from the low to the old high would take about the same time as the move from the old high to the first 05 peak...3 more months takes us to the end of Feb.
Ok, so what do you think that means to stocks (the indexes, not WMT specifically) for the next month or two?
TIA
Wal-Mart conflicting with other retailers...I saw this morning on the news early estimates are for a 10% gain this year over last for the weekend after Thanksgiving.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0C317F1D%2DB5CA%2D47CD%2DA6A8%2DDC77CBFB9DF7%7D&am...
Retailers start tallying holiday sales
Visa purchases up 15.5%; ShopperTrak sees 10.8% gain
By Carla Mozee, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:47 PM ET Nov. 27, 2004
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Retail analysts were busy as elves Saturday, crunching the numbers and tallying sales from the after-Thanksgiving rush that kicks off the holiday shopping season.
Shoppers across the country hit the stores on Friday, rushing to get deals on popular items like DVD players, flat-screen TVs, iPods and, of course, toys.
In an early sign that buying will be strong this year, Visa USA said Saturday that the total of its credit and debit card transactions was more than $4.1 billion, up 15.5 percent from the same day last year.
In breaking out its numbers, Visa said discount and drug store buys rose 20.9 percent, department store and apparel buys rose 15.7 percent, and home and garden transactions were up 15.6 percent. Purchases at specialty retail, gift and hobby stores were flat with year-ago numbers. Visa said its 450 million cards account for about 14 percent of total purchases.
ShopperTrak RCT, which measures store traffic for clients, said it saw a 10.8 percent rise in its national retail sales estimate from the same Friday of 2003. Sales were estimated at $8 billion.
Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, called the roughly 11 percent jump in its sales estimate "eye-popping". He said combined with last year's 10 percent jump in sales, "Black Friday" -- when retailers can see results go into the black -- is emerging as the busiest retail day of the year. Listen to interview with Martin
Here's the more important stuff I'm looking at...
The comp corrected 18% this year...not unusual after the first leg of a cyclical bull. After such a correction, a 35% or so rally is common...my target is 2368-2400.
I have a fair value on the s&p around 1500-1600 right now, which means to me that it's at least 20% undervalued...I'm looking at the 2000 high of 1553 as a target. The comp I can see at 2800 min. The question for me is when it gets there. If I just go with what's typical, we get 2368-2400, then correct again around 10-14% into May or so, then take off into end of 05 getting 2800 in the fall.
The only other thing I'm really looking at is something like 1994, when interest rates went up throughout the year, the comp corrected about 15%, but the resulting 95 rally was about 50% before a several month consolidation into 96. 1994 was also a time that I see the market was about 15% undervalued at the low...the rally into 95 took it back to about "even" according to my stuff. So I see the market again getting back to even this time, which is that 2800 or so...just a matter of time IMO. I wouldn't be surprised by a 94-95 type move, since things are similar, but we've been stuck on a pretty common election year thing all through 04, so I've got to stick with this until it doesn't follow any longer. And the election year stuff says we keep going right here to 2153, with a peak of some kind around Feb.
No, can't really see 2400 by dec 31st...but dec 98 and 99 show anything is possible. I still think the most likely is still to get 2368-2400 by late Jan-early Feb. And that's the one that should also be getting 2153 this week, starting first thing monday with a strong open.
The more bullish scenario IMO would probably be a drop back to around 2060 early this week, then reverse and still close the week strong. But 2153 would be delayed a week or so. I think something like this could get 2500-2600 in the Apr timeframe.
I feel like I need to review things a bit more but I'm more inclined to just sit back now and wait to see where we are in Jan...of course I can't do that though <g>, and I'll be looking over things as we move along here.
That's what I've got too...summations still pointed up. I think we can get 2153 by weds or thurs. Since today went no where, and yesterday I said I thought we could have a nice up day thru 2112 within 2 days, I guess that means I think it happens monday now <g>. Perhaps some of the initial retail numbers over the weekend can provide a spark for Monday.
I'll look things over this weekend and see if there's anything else I can come up with, but I agree with you at the moment, weekly still looks pointed up.
Don't know if you saw my post a couple days ago...here's another data security play that's gone nuts...these things just breaking out of long bases.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vdsi,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pc200!c50!d20,2!b200!b50!c20!c1...
I agree about the day-to-day stuff...I only really care insofar as it plays into an overall scenario. I don't trade the day-to-day, just use each day's outcome to try to determine where we should go next. If we have a string of a few weeks where everyday's playing out like it "should", then I have to assume that we'll continue on that particular path. Then of course there are other things that go into the "bigger" picture, major sentiment stuff that occured during this 04 correction, simple valuation metrics, etc. The market's greatly undervalued here still IMO, and we have a ways to go up before it reaches "fair value".
Zeev, is this still based on the belief that we won't get the job growth going forward to avoid this "recession"? If we did avg 250,000/month going fwd, would this change your thoughts? Also, any idea why this has been pushed out so far...early this year you had a peak in late summer/Sept, then a drop forecasting an early-mid 05 recession...the market's obviously not forecasting that recession anytime soon, especially given the fact that we seem destined to get 2350-2400 in the next 2-3 months. Are you open to the possibility that we can get a normal correction after 2350, then rise higher into late 05?
TIA
Hey diesel, happy thanksgiving first of all...hope you have a good one...and everyone else on the board too.
Second, since we did rise yesterday, it still seems to me that we're stuck on the first path towards 2153. All my reviewing a couple days ago may come in handy later, but for now, it seems like it was unnecessary. So now I think in the next two days, we could have a nice up day right thru 2112.
But what I'm looking at right now is some kind of short term peak above 2153 around Dec 6-9...so 7-10 trading days from now. And I still think the sox gets carried up about 6% in that time to 460 (the 300sma). My first target on the comp is 2175, but I'll be watching for higher than that for signs that the pullback is very minor before launching higher. I've still got about a 50/50 chance of a 5% pullback from 2175, or going towards 2220, then falling back to 2153. I think one thing I'll be looking for is if we get 2153, then fall to the 9ema over a couple days, then bust thru 2153...or if we bust thru 2153 on the first attempt. This may provide a sign as to how high we can go above it.
I've also been considering the possibility of a 98 or 99 type melt up which could still take us to 2500, even without a test of 2052 or those other things that path 2 would have had. I think it's at least possible, but first things first, let's just see how 2153 is handled.
Take it easy.
My friend had read something about it when the whole "security" craze was going on. This is data security, but still got caught in the hype of anything security related a while back. He bought some initially, but just bought a ton during the recent summer lows...he's obviously doing very well now.
Here's a stock that's doing well. I had asked some of the chart guys on ihub to look at it months ago...a friend of mine loaded up on it the past few months, I think he's like the 8th largest shareholder according to the data on yahoo...he was pretty amused by that...now he's jumping for joy. Anyway, I don't own it but I wish I did.
Hey diesel, I don't know or really care about today. If we're up big, it continues along the first path towards 2153. But if we crap, and end up back below the 9ema (near the 13ema), this would just increase the odds of the second thing even more IMO. Yesterday, even though we took back the 9ema by the close, still opened up my eyes a bit more to that 2nd path, and that could very well mean a red day today. So like I said yesterday, I'm just going to wait for the close on friday to see what the week looked like. Both have very bullish outcomes looking out a couple months...the second just has a week delay really, and a possible test of that 2052 low, and a definite tag of the 20 day soon.
Good luck.
No problem...and see, all that for nothing, we're now solidly back above the 9ema. I shouldn't say that, it can only jinx this recovery <g>.
I honestly think I may be overanalyzing things a bit, since I'm really just trying to decide which of two very bullish scenarios will take place IMO. But nonetheless, just trying to keep ahead of it so that nothing is a big surprise.