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NMN is a repeat posting so maybe this is to amplify?
Dunno, but comes over the weekend AFTER a rally on Friday.
Prediction of ST making a move must be in the article (past my paywall)
3 Thunder Basins is a rock band?
Seriously. GSEs cases and other SCOTUS cases haven't linked.
You guys know I am a long, but wondering if:
a) Something really related or
b) Just the fact that DTs can't short forever, and sometimes need to go elsewhere.
40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45 cents. Not like this is a rocket-launch.
Hope I am wrong. Need some follow through to convince me!
Have a great weekend all... and nice way to end the week!
Kthomp seems to think common are stupid
Because the govt. has stolen all of the value.
Newsflash: They haven't as yet. It may seem to you and GB that it is a fait accompli that common gets a nickel or $1.
If that does happen, then all Kthomp posits WOULD be true. New investors WOULD have to be wary of a repeat. I haven't studied GM (which got wiped out), but I bet that the new investors did/do get a risk factor built into the shares vs. Ford or other car company.
The final verdict is not in on the common treatment.
Wazee amended complaint
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.uscfc.37252/gov.uscourts.uscfc.37252.30.0.pdf
Can someone explain the status of this?
How is it "amended" (sure looks like the original)?
Was Sweeney court dismissed and now trying to resurrect?
TIA
Who was saying ST was moving on and new FHFA head coming April?
Just wondering if that is still happening?
Conversion ratios by Familymang is the super-dilution scenario
Based on Calabria.
Could be, but there are quite a few unanswered questions:
Would there be merger?
What is the PSPA amount (187,215, 250) being converted?
Does JPS take a haircut?
How big is the pie?
When you add up the Common = Total - SPS - JPS you might end up with $1B or less, $10B or $20B.
Familymang is convinced it is $1B or less.
It certainly will not be $20B or more, so the dreams of $20+ PPS are clearly not in the cards.
This is a lot of back-of-the-envelope, for sure.
On principle, not buying Calabria book, but then again, seems like it might be an 'investment' in my investment.
Funny that he would use the term "illegal" while he knew FHFA's handling was already illegal. Right?
Writing down PSPA is illegal or just optics?
As the "liquidation preference" rises dollar for dollar, then won't the optics always be that at R&R would be seen as some sort of gift?
All the chips on the table then belong to UST? (net of the JPS)
With this reasoning common has pretty close to zero in the stack.
At some point, the 'optics' of JPS getting their $33B will also look like a gift, too. To those that don't understand where the $187B came from or the $250B now, it will all be a gift. Given the longstanding story-line that GSEs wouldn't have survived a BK had it not been for the gracious actions in 2008 to 2012 to save their a$$es.
Whether Moelis or CBO or JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley or Blackrock comes in with a plan. That plan will have to be fair to JPS and common and of course US taxpayers.
The debate over who gets what is secondary for me. We just need a first card to be played and there doesn't seem to be a game going on.
Only ST and Yellen looking at credit scores and inflation and banking. It is like the Trump years. There is always another battle or issue and this one is just fine as it it.
So CFPB is referencing Collins
Whew, boy. Bad decisions are being used as case law?
Govt. can do what they want?
Well, there seems to be some dissent (and appreciate the bolding to liven it up!) and still can't figure out a) where this lands and b) what it might have to do with as a boomerang back to GSEs.
Many of these are "Q1" so time is short or should we be excited?
Not up to date on the impending SCOTUS action, so which one and does this hold out hope?
Seems like the CFPB & our case are similar and would be the opportunity to reverse the NWS. Is this the one coming up?
TIA
GM Bondholders got a shaft in the capital stack too
Common didn't fare well either.
UBS / CS was a political takeover and they threw some under the bus.
A little different with GSEs - we do know that WANTED to do r-ship in 2008, 2009, 2010 but couldn't / wouldn't as politically untenable.
Ain't no different now, with r-ship.
Now, could they wipeout commons with a conversion of the PSPS? Maybe. Could they also wipeout, with some fancy number calculations, the JPS. Harder to do.
Look at the CBO report from a couple of years ago and they laid out some scenarios. They were all over the board and they didn't know then and don't know now how that would play out.
We do know earnings were strong since that last back of the envelope; i.e. much harder to wipe out JPS in 2023.
Pretty clever but was from 2022
Ah, a very good year for Calhoun watching.
So you are saying JPS priced little better than BK
I recall someone doing a silly analysis on NPV
5% chance 2017 $25
10% chance 2018 $25
35% chance 2019 $25
50% chance $0
IRR / Discount rate 10% for riskiness
Voila! $9 - FNMAS is a bargain!
---
Pricing now like
10% $25 2030
10% $25 2032
80% zero
Maybe that's why the 2019 IB work came to a standstill
If govt. is locked into NOT writing down PSPA and not relinquishing warrants then no new investor will touch with a ten-foot pole.
They ARE left with owning the GSEs and with no one to sell them to. Just a govt. corp.
That may end up being the case... well, they still have to deal with JPS. But sadly, not the common. Common would have to wade through the courts for another 15 years, probably.
Don't shoot me, just the messenger.
I have been led to believe that there are behind the scenes happenings
GB - What was this post about?
First, you have a gossip/insider notion. Led to believe from whom, what?
Second, there is a capital stack, options, paragraph and to "plan accordingly".
Are you saying the govt. exercises warrants, converts SPS?
Big bang coming?
All of these "imminent" (ST getting promoted / replaced comes to mind) actions sure are being kept quiet. I would expect the PTB to try to keep quiet, yes. Any inside trading on them by GSE or FHFA workers would be noted, for sure.
Nobody in FHFA or TSY or Congress has thrown us any kind of bone for a long time now!
What and when will the shoe drop?! It's been 15 years and yes, this is very old.
Pretty sad - ST & Calabria BOTH and no mention of situation / condition of GSE in perpertual conservatorship.
Maybe Calabria afraid of ruffling ST feathers? Food fight with donuts and rubber chickens?
Calabria discussing the great job he did?
ST discussing the great job she's doing in keeping the market flowing?
The elephant in the room is that neither has an interest in turning the keys back over to the BOD, shareholders, Mgt. They like to be in charge, de facto CEOs of Fortune 100 companies.
Sickening.
In what world can govt. give JPS 1 share of common?
You are talking about a receivership or BK?
I see what you are saying. At a supreme meeting of the Grand Poobahs, they announce we have a plan to make Fanne and Freddie Great Again. And, commons will be worth $200. We get 80%. We cancel the warrants. iHub holders get $200 and Bradford gets $1. Crowd cheers!
Your reality is kind of out there.
GSE interest rate risk is minimal and mitigated with some futures
They control that risk well
There's is a credit risk (which was overblown with expected losses in 2008). The credit risk is on the T$s of loans, but as Gary Hindes pointed out on Twitter, these loans are backed by housing values.
Banks & GSEs are night and day, but Calabria wanted to make them equal.
You do not get taxed on an award like this
Commons get 10 cents
JPS 25s get $1
JPS 50s get $2
I wouldn't mind.
Glad to see Lamberth is still no-nonsense and has dates all laid out.
Peanuts? $1 for $25 JPS $2 for $50?
That IS basically the PPS today!
I'd love to have that $
If there is a silver lining to the hung jury, it would have to be the known smoke that the govt. will blow. Such as when the jurors asked for the friggin original PSPA which somehow the govt. claimed that the SHs should have known that in a c-ship they would get nothing. NOOO, they/we signed up for having the stock be released from c-ship when things turned around... which they did.
The gray-lining is that it got pushed back 9 months and still will have an appeal so that potential payout would still be a year from July 2023.
Hoping and praying that July 2024 - pre election does see Biden move so as to not have a Republican take credit.
ALL of the prior plans - Moelis (2017, CBO (2020), etc. contemplate R&R by now or in 2024!
ST getting promoted soon? Big news forthcoming?
When does anything happen?
Getting a little frustrated with the big news predictions by Humper and Bradford, who literally have no contacts or influence, but still seem to think people will follow some gossip they hear in their own wishful and deluded heads.
I just wait for July when we get a re-trial in Lamberth
I also wait for something from ST or Yellen or FHFA with a capital plan
Lastly, I wait for a Hindes confirmation of some high up official (which I believe) did say something in the next 12-18 months, which from April 2022 would be from soon to November.
Unfortunately, the waiting game goes on and on with no news. All of the noise here about CFPB relating to FHFA is noise until some ruling on CFPB, then a connection, then a lawsuit, then the legal delays. We're looking at 2028 by which time the warrants will have been exercised prior to expiring. Ergo, this CFPB nonsense is a bunch of longshot hopes that will be moot anyways.
Moelis has been collecting dust for years
Navycmdr, Bradford, and anyone who sees those warrants in the per share EPS since 2008 counts them as being exercised.
There are some here that claim foul and unfair, but this hasn't been challenged and AIG got the same treatment.
I also foresee them being exercised. The question about how the SPS gets resolved is quite another story. $187B as paid? Converted to common too? $250B current liq. preference minus the 187 to capital or is this the full amount to be paid in cash or converted to common?
That will be determined.
Close? Bradford? To what
SBC meets and not a word.
Calabria
Mnuchin both would mention c-ship & RnR occasionally.
Where is ST and Yellen?
Remember Corker saying we wouldn't get a dime?
Nobody even mentions GSEs any more. Forgotten!
Circle jerked for 14+ years
Congress can't agree on anything. No action.
No replacement (TINA)
Treasury / WH love the money
Courts buy any BS sent their way
Ain't owned by the SHs (see Supreme Court and all actions) and ain't owned by govt. (per CBO)
The very definition of limbo.
Only WH needing the money or wanting to show some win or protect status (i.e. Biden may not want a dismantling and the gifts / grift to affordable housing).
Sure hope Hindes is right for once. Like Bradford, ain't ever been right, but there's always a first time for everything!
Is this new? Where from?
A little release is always a good thing!
Bradford should read this and maybe he will get it
DELAY of RRR benefits commons.
JPS get no more dividends in the meantime.
Banking all of these funds quarter after quarter.
SPOT ON!
Freddie Mac delaying earnings new date unknown
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/regarding-freddie-mac-release-date-213500268.html
$550 is .50x1B shares but all calcs use 5B shares (with warrants)
They have been doing this for a long time on services. The warrants have value and the reasonable expectation is that they would be exercised; they are 'in the money' so they get included.
Bernstein revolving door from 2015 article?
Puhleeze.
This op-ed is about another article which said Parrott and others were trying to dismantle GSEs so big banks could waltz into the market.
Bernstein refutes they would do that. Why? Because he's never seen a position paper on it from those folks. Sheesh. You think they do the back-room takeover in public?
You think they're proud of the 'fellow traveler' emails that went back and forth?
No, they're trying to hide those under a rock.
bradford is so wrong here zero$ accrue to pfd (i.e. no dividends that I can see)
ALL of it is going into the common (sure, 80% US govt.) kitty / piggybank
kthomp so courts are dead?
Not saying it ain't so, but there is:
Collins (maybe better than a snowball's chance in hell)?
The retrial at Lamberth for a few shekels, like $2 for a $50 par JPS, $1 for a $25 JPS and like 10 cents for FMCC, right?
Rop will have a hard slog at USSC as they shoot down anything. Right?
Slow motion rally, huh "10 fold"
This is in the next day, week, year, decade?
Let's be clear that people who work for her would not know
She may not even know in these situations.
I will believe-it-when-I-see-it.
She doesn't seem the type to climb any ladder, unless going to think tank pays her more than her civil servant pay at the govt.
Let's get Calhoun in there!
We do know that Bradford has no sources so let's see if HBW is making shite up.
Devil you know? I'll take the devil we don't know in a heartbeat.
Top of the list is Mike Calhoun who wrote paper to make GSEs utilities
https://www.crefc.org/cre/content/News/Items/advocacy-items/GSE_Reform_Calhoun_Proposal_Envisions_Utility_Model_with_Affordability_Focus.aspx
Middle is Susan Wachter who is all about GSE & affordable housing
https://real-faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wachter/presentations/
Bottom of the list is Zandi, Wallison, Pinto, Norbert whoever (i.e. anyone from AEI / bought out shills that think GSEs should be wound down and replaced with private companies which equates to +50BP for all mortgages forever)
Mnuchin's Recap Plan should be evidence!
If the contention is they just ran out of time and the plan was very close to completion, anyways, then seeing the 'secret' Mnuchin plan that Craig Phillips says was on his desk in JAN 2021 would go a long, long way to proving what would have happened - and just how shareholders were damaged.
Should put Plaintiffs
They need grammerly or some check before sending to the court.
Is this why stocks up today?
FNMA went over 50 cents, but the JPS were really moving.
Calabria is gone, way gone. Maybe he and Mnuchin left the plan for Yellen and Thompson to complete the steps.
Sure doesn't seem like Yellen has even heard of GSEs and ST seems to think Congress has to act and we know that ain't happening.
Congress only acts in an emergency and there is no emergency here.
It will be Biden, when he is good & ready - when he needs the money.