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Check out my blog and watch my YouTube videos.
Then ask yourself if you should buy or not.
NWBO DCVax-L Phase III Randomized Trial Models Significant Survival Improvements
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5016421-alphapuppyman/5488072-nwbo-dcvax-l-phase-iii-randomized-trial-models-significant-survival-improvements
ALT. Nice review but in almost all of your scenarios It is required for NWBO to do something quickly.
NWBO has never been able to do anything quickly ever in the history of the company.
So that would be a major change and a major shift in company ethos.
So we may never really get to that very lofty valuation. That said I do think the trial is going to be positive and ultimately they will get approvals and I’m looking forward to seeing top line date and now that were 8.5 months since October 5.
Remember when LP said the date it would be locked and it would take a statistician about two weeks to give them some read out. Ha ha
Please keep the topic on NWBO.
Thanks
Just wondering if the correct quotation should have been as follows.
From This
To more accurately this!
Adding to that Dave Innes words shortly after Data Lock to an investor
"[we] intentionally gave no timeline, because [we] would not be able to update [investors], when TLD takes longer than expected.”
People and everyone this is NWBO we’re talking about here. They’ve never in their history done anything fast. Ever.
Do what I do and just give a 3 to 10 times increase in whatever timeline they might provide or you might think would be reasonable. Then relax.
Marz. Luv your updates.
I get a kick how you refer to your investment group people as “your minions”!!
I find it hilarious!
Anders
Just for the sake of clarification and accuracy please note The trial only started 189,000 years ago. You might wanna update your system and correct that; it just seems to have been 200,000 because of Covid.!
Basin.
It’s a different animal. But I would have the path reviewed because even if there’s a speck of necrosis that would upgrade it to grade 4 which would be GBM.
I have worked with a world class Neuropathologist and you’d be amazed how many times the pathology changes when a real expert reviews the neuropathology.
Anaplastics have a little better prognosis and GBM however. For inoperable, start with radiation and TMZ
CRL is their stock symbol. Let use that.
Yes yes. Thanks GGB!
Yes agree.
It’s difficult to tell especially on an overall survival analysis what the crossover effect will be. That’s why I think progression free survivor will also be Significant and PFS has no crossover affect. I think one has to look at both. I’m pretty sure they have been able to overcome the pseudo progression issue so I’m thinking PFS will also be very telling.
ALT.
Good point.
All of my data reviews were based on 2017 data. I suspect with further follow up the numbers may be improved from what I was reporting.
I am really interested in seeing how close my models are to the reality once the reality is published.
Please except my condolences for your loss during this time of grief Marz.
I guess the quiet period must be over. If Less is blabbing to Yahoo investor board members.
I always knew that it was BS when they said it would take the statisticians two weeks to analyze the data. There is absolutely no statistical work of any significance that I am aware of that hasn’t taken at least six weeks to do.
Statisticians are like lawyers and accountants. Nothing happens fast for them.
It’s almost as if these type of folks live in a space-time that acts like it’s next to a black hole and one minute of their time is 100 years for the rest of us.
So when Linda says it’s going to take 2 to 3 weeks for the statisticians to analyze the data she’s not lying, but she is living in a space-time next to a black hole. The rest of us however aren’t.
Basically that’s why there’s such a disconnect.
Hang in there.
Have one of your family pick up a pulse oximeter at a drugstore. They cost less than 20 bucks. Mark on your calendar seven days after your first symptoms and put a big X on that date.
Because usually by seven days either a persons going to start getting better or it can turn bad. Use your pulse ox 2 to 3 times a day and write down the results. If after the seven days your O2 Satz start to fall below 94 93% Engage you medical folks.
Rest, fluids, zinc, vitamin D. Some places are starting to give the antibody treatments earlier in the disease as well.
Thanks for you insights.
Senti.
I’m trying to wrap my head around this warrant extension issue. The company has not made any public statements.
Senti I wonder if you could please shed some light on this. One of the prior posts had indicated that you had some communication that indicated that the warrants were extended to the end of February or March 2021 timeframe.
Is that true? Please if you are able give additional information and insight on this issue.
AP
Nice table. It sure does look like the DC VAX is going to beat historical controls.
I love it! “And thief interests”.
Either a typo or you are a very funny person.
FREE WARRANTS anyone???
GGB
I hear what you’re saying. Many times I feel exactly the same way.
The only thing consistent with LP in this management is that they are inconsistent. Timing means nothing to them. I do agree with you that I don’t think they have ever met any kind of timeline that they have presented in one of their PR ‘s.
So they are consistently late. So they do have some consistencies that they’re always late and that they’re inconsistent. So I guess we can hang our hat on those two things.
However when I start to feel The way that you eloquently posted on, I usually go back and review my old model videos. The data is pretty spectacular in my opinion. I think we have a winner here if we just wait it out. But it’s tough.
I know a lot of you have seen the videos before but I’m going to post a link here for the newbies.
I like to review them over again especially when I’m feeling the way that you are feeling now. It kind of stabilizes my thoughts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/5016421-alphapuppyman/5488072-nwbo-dcvax-l-phase-iii-randomized-trial-models-significant-survival-improvements
I agree with you that they always seem to do raises all the time. And they always come with some freebie warrants Almost like they really want and intend to dilute us to oblivion. Perhaps that’s now in the past. I don’t know.
But now company executives in the company have indicated that they are in a quiet period. Whatever that means.
It seems that a quiet period Might preclude them from talking and blabbing up a lot of stuff with potential buyers of a dilution.
Perhaps I’m wrong. It seems that in order to sell the dilution you’d have to talk to someone and that might be difficult to do during a quiet period.
Just wondering, how is it that the company can extend warrants during a quiet period?? Seems like they would be prohibited to do that during a quiet period. Anybody have any insight on this?
I just want him to put some paragraphs in so that it is easier to read. That’s all. It gives me a headache to try to read that without paragraphs. I probably should just copy and paste it into my own word program and put my own paragraphs in it.
Yeah I believe you. I don’t know why IHUB makes it so user unfriendly to post.
I believe they will meet their overall survival end point handily
AE the thing I don’t get about the business so, is that less did say they had three World class statisticians working on it and he did not include me in that number! I’m shocked!
India, you have important things to say about NWBO. However it’s impossible to read your posts.
There are things in the written word, called a paragraphs in which separate ideas in a long written section of words are separated by a space or an extra line.
These paragraphs allow people to read very large post such as yours in packets of information. The brain is better able to process that rather than just having a post that just pukes out a very large amount of words.
So I don’t read your post because there’s no paragraphs.
Asta
As a long-term shareholder since 2013, I want to reassure you, that I don’t believe that NWBO management has ever in their history, at least as long as I have on the shares, met a timeline that they have provided.
If they say two weeks it takes six weeks. If they say shortly it takes many months. If they say one week that means 10 weeks.
All kind of flus and illnesses and difficulties get in the way of their timelines. Maybe the status Titian broke his leg. Who knows.
And management does not seem to be bothered by this lack of credibility.
Yet they still plod along and ultimately we get the data. It’s just you cannot hang your hat on anything that they say regarding timing. The only thing right now, I truly believe, is that you can hang your hat on the late breaking abstract presentation on November20 th be Dr Lau.
Usually between 4 to 6 or in the plenary session.
Come on JR be real.
How many negative studies do you know that have occurred and provide a major contribution in terms of their data??
Right. None!!
Also Have you ever heard LP speak in person? She’s probably really smart but certainly is not the most dynamic speaker. That’s just her speaking ability. I don’t think you can read anything into that.
Nice try doing a negative spin however.
Yes I agree. Hence why I have owned this stock since 2013.
I thought with my initial review that they had positive results way back then.
Then came the trial expansion. And we know the rest of the story with the long follow up.
I can’t totally wrap my head around that except that I think LP and our management is very conservative and Wanted more time and more data points. Hence the expansion in the long wait.
I think they felt that that would be more of a slam dunk for them. Unfortunately for all of us shareholders we had to hold onto the shares for 6 additional years.
It’s back up now. Here is the link again.
OK Folks Check out my Seeking Alpha Blog Site. Can't wait to see how close my prediction on PFS and OS are going to be. Alphapup
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5016421-alphapuppyman/5488072-nwbo-dcvax-l-phase-iii-randomized-trial-models-significant-survival-improvements
Yes I edited it to correct some misspellings and when I resubmitted it it had to go through a review process again.
I don’t know when they’re going to put it back up and I don’t know if the link will be different now. It was just a few misspellings that I corrected.
I will keep checking on it and once it’s back up I will submit the link again or maybe it will still be the old link.
Also it is important to note that anything past 36 months on the KM curves have very limited data points. Basically only 2 data points given in the Translational Med Article.
Also please note the lower and upper standard error ranges. Sorry for the formatting I couldn't get it to format better.
Total observed Total failed Total censored
232 158 74
Kaplan-Meier table (2):
TIME MONTHS At risk Failed Censored Proportion failed Survival rate Survival distribution function Standard error of the survival function Lower bound (95%) Upper bound (95%)
4 232 2 1 0.009 0.991 0.991 0.006 0.979 1.000
4.4 229 1 0 0.004 0.996 0.987 0.007 0.972 1.000
4.8 228 0 1 0.004 0.996 0.987 0.007 0.972 1.000
5 227 3 0 0.013 0.987 0.974 0.010 0.953 0.995
5.9 224 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.965 0.012 0.942 0.989
6 222 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.957 0.013 0.930 0.983
6.2 220 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.952 0.014 0.925 0.980
6.6 219 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.948 0.015 0.919 0.977
7 218 2 1 0.009 0.991 0.939 0.016 0.908 0.970
7.2 215 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.935 0.016 0.903 0.967
7.5 214 2 0 0.009 0.991 0.926 0.017 0.892 0.960
7.7 212 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.922 0.018 0.887 0.956
8 211 4 0 0.019 0.981 0.904 0.019 0.866 0.942
8.1 207 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.900 0.020 0.861 0.939
8.6 206 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.896 0.020 0.856 0.935
8.7 205 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.891 0.021 0.851 0.931
8.9 204 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.887 0.021 0.846 0.928
9 203 3 1 0.015 0.985 0.874 0.022 0.831 0.917
9.6 199 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.869 0.022 0.826 0.913
9.8 198 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.865 0.023 0.821 0.909
9.9 197 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.861 0.023 0.816 0.905
10 196 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.861 0.023 0.816 0.905
10.1 195 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.856 0.023 0.811 0.902
10.2 194 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.852 0.023 0.806 0.898
10.5 193 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.852 0.023 0.806 0.898
10.8 192 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.847 0.024 0.801 0.894
10.9 191 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.843 0.024 0.796 0.890
11 190 4 1 0.021 0.979 0.825 0.025 0.776 0.874
11.7 185 1 0 0.005 0.995 0.821 0.025 0.771 0.870
11.9 184 0 1 0.005 0.995 0.821 0.025 0.771 0.870
12 183 3 0 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
12.1 180 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13 179 0 2 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13.2 177 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.807 0.026 0.756 0.858
13.4 176 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.803 0.026 0.751 0.854
13.45 175 0 1 0.006 0.994 0.803 0.026 0.751 0.854
13.5 174 2 0 0.011 0.989 0.793 0.027 0.741 0.846
13.8 172 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.789 0.027 0.736 0.842
14 171 3 2 0.018 0.982 0.775 0.028 0.720 0.829
14.1 166 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.770 0.028 0.715 0.825
14.4 165 2 0 0.012 0.988 0.761 0.028 0.705 0.817
15 163 0 2 0.012 0.988 0.761 0.028 0.705 0.817
15.2 161 2 0 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
15.5 159 0 1 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
16 158 0 2 0.012 0.988 0.751 0.029 0.695 0.808
16.1 156 1 0 0.006 0.994 0.747 0.029 0.690 0.804
16.2 155 2 1 0.013 0.987 0.737 0.029 0.679 0.795
16.4 152 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.732 0.030 0.674 0.790
16.8 151 3 0 0.020 0.980 0.718 0.030 0.658 0.777
17 148 1 2 0.007 0.993 0.713 0.030 0.653 0.772
17.1 145 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.708 0.031 0.648 0.768
17.4 144 2 0 0.014 0.986 0.698 0.031 0.637 0.759
17.6 142 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.693 0.031 0.632 0.754
17.7 141 1 1 0.007 0.993 0.688 0.031 0.627 0.750
17.9 139 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.683 0.031 0.622 0.745
18 138 2 2 0.014 0.986 0.673 0.032 0.611 0.736
18.6 134 1 0 0.007 0.993 0.668 0.032 0.606 0.731
18.8 133 0 2 0.007 0.993 0.668 0.032 0.606 0.731
18.9 131 1 1 0.008 0.992 0.663 0.032 0.600 0.726
19 129 1 2 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.2 126 0 1 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.4 125 0 1 0.008 0.992 0.658 0.032 0.595 0.721
19.5 124 2 1 0.016 0.984 0.647 0.033 0.584 0.711
19.8 121 0 1 0.016 0.984 0.647 0.033 0.584 0.711
20 120 2 0 0.017 0.983 0.637 0.033 0.572 0.701
20.1 118 1 0 0.008 0.992 0.631 0.033 0.566 0.696
20.3 117 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.626 0.033 0.561 0.691
20.4 116 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.620 0.033 0.555 0.686
20.6 114 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.615 0.034 0.549 0.681
20.7 113 1 0 0.009 0.991 0.610 0.034 0.544 0.676
21 112 0 1 0.009 0.991 0.610 0.034 0.544 0.676
21.2 111 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.604 0.034 0.538 0.670
21.3 109 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.599 0.034 0.532 0.665
21.9 107 0 1 0.009 0.991 0.599 0.034 0.532 0.665
22.2 106 1 1 0.009 0.991 0.593 0.034 0.526 0.660
22.5 104 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.587 0.034 0.520 0.654
22.7 103 0 1 0.010 0.990 0.587 0.034 0.520 0.654
23.1 102 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.581 0.034 0.514 0.649
23.3 101 1 0 0.010 0.990 0.576 0.035 0.508 0.643
23.4 100 1 1 0.010 0.990 0.570 0.035 0.502 0.638
23.6 98 1 1 0.010 0.990 0.564 0.035 0.496 0.632
23.7 96 2 1 0.021 0.979 0.552 0.035 0.484 0.621
24 93 3 0 0.032 0.968 0.535 0.035 0.465 0.604
24.6 90 0 1 0.032 0.968 0.535 0.035 0.465 0.604
24.9 89 1 0 0.011 0.989 0.529 0.036 0.459 0.598
25.1 88 1 0 0.011 0.989 0.523 0.036 0.453 0.592
25.2 87 1 1 0.011 0.989 0.517 0.036 0.447 0.587
25.4 85 2 1 0.024 0.976 0.504 0.036 0.434 0.575
26.1 82 1 0 0.012 0.988 0.498 0.036 0.428 0.569
26.4 81 1 0 0.012 0.988 0.492 0.036 0.421 0.563
26.6 80 1 0 0.013 0.988 0.486 0.036 0.415 0.557
26.7 79 1 1 0.013 0.987 0.480 0.036 0.409 0.551
26.9 77 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.474 0.036 0.402 0.545
27 76 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.467 0.036 0.396 0.538
27.2 75 1 0 0.013 0.987 0.461 0.036 0.390 0.532
27.9 74 1 0 0.014 0.986 0.455 0.036 0.384 0.526
28.1 73 3 0 0.041 0.959 0.436 0.036 0.365 0.508
28.4 70 1 1 0.014 0.986 0.430 0.036 0.358 0.501
28.7 68 0 1 0.014 0.986 0.430 0.036 0.358 0.501
29.9 67 1 0 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
30 66 0 2 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
30.3 64 0 1 0.015 0.985 0.424 0.036 0.352 0.495
32 63 1 0 0.016 0.984 0.417 0.037 0.345 0.488
32.7 62 2 0 0.032 0.968 0.403 0.037 0.332 0.475
32.9 60 1 0 0.017 0.983 0.397 0.037 0.325 0.468
33 59 2 0 0.034 0.966 0.383 0.037 0.312 0.455
33.2 57 1 0 0.018 0.982 0.376 0.037 0.305 0.448
33.3 56 1 0 0.018 0.982 0.370 0.036 0.298 0.441
35.1 55 0 1 0.018 0.982 0.370 0.036 0.298 0.441
35.4 54 1 0 0.019 0.981 0.363 0.036 0.291 0.434
35.6 53 2 0 0.038 0.962 0.349 0.036 0.278 0.420
35.9 51 2 0 0.039 0.961 0.335 0.036 0.265 0.406
38 49 1 0 0.020 0.980 0.329 0.036 0.258 0.399
39 48 1 0 0.021 0.979 0.322 0.036 0.251 0.392
40 47 1 0 0.021 0.979 0.315 0.036 0.245 0.385
45 46 6 6 0.130 0.870 0.274 0.035 0.206 0.342
48 34 1 0 0.029 0.971 0.266 0.035 0.198 0.334
50 33 2 1 0.061 0.939 0.250 0.034 0.182 0.317
55 30 2 2 0.067 0.933 0.233 0.034 0.166 0.300
57 26 1 0 0.038 0.962 0.224 0.034 0.158 0.291
60 25 2 2 0.080 0.920 0.206 0.034 0.140 0.272
65 21 2 1 0.095 0.905 0.187 0.033 0.122 0.251
70 18 2 2 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
74 14 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
75 13 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.166 0.032 0.102 0.229
76 12 1 0 0.083 0.917 0.152 0.033 0.088 0.216
78 11 1 0 0.091 0.909 0.138 0.032 0.075 0.202
80 10 1 0 0.100 0.900 0.124 0.032 0.062 0.187
83 9 1 0 0.111 0.889 0.111 0.031 0.049 0.172
87 8 0 1 0.111 0.889 0.111 0.031 0.049 0.172
88 7 1 0 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
88.2 6 0 1 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
91 5 0 1 0.143 0.857 0.095 0.031 0.035 0.155
92 4 2 0 0.500 0.500 0.047 0.028 0.000 0.103
94 2 1 0 0.500 0.500 0.024 0.022 0.000 0.067
96 1 1 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I went into the Kaplan Meyer table and there was a lot of change between 40 and 45 months so I averaged the surviving fraction at 40 and 45 months and the surviving fraction was .315 and .274 respectively which when multiplied by the N of the experimental group came out to 68.3 averaged between the 40 and 45 month mark.So since you can’t have a .3 of a person I would say 68 alive at that interval between 40 to 45 months.
For the 60 month time. According to the Kaplan Meyer table there was .201 surviving fraction Which times 232 which was the N of the experimental arm equals 47.8 “people alive”. Therefore rounding that up gives you 48.
So I would say that your numbers are consistent with the Kaplan-Meier curve.
Also It was pointed out to me that In My seeking Alpha blog, I had had some miss spellings that I corrected, and when I edited the blog they pulled it down for review. So I don’t know if it’s going to be put back up. If it comes in with a different different link I will submit the new link.
Yes historical series include patients whom they cannot do surgery on because the location in the brain is in eloquent areas.
Therefore for these patients which quantify to be about 16% of all GBM cases, all they are able to get is a biopsy only for histologic diagnosis. And biopsy only is not enough tissue to create the lysate vaccine.
In both the NWBO and IMUC series they required either a gross total resection or a fairly significant partial resection. They could not make the dendritic cell lysate on biopsy only material. They needed more tissue.
I think that’s the main reason for the difference.
Keep in mind in the inoperable cases, once the vaccine is Validated DCVax direct could be used in these cases.
OK Folks
Check out my Seeking Alpha Blog Site.
Can't wait to see how close my prediction on PFS and OS are going to be.
Alphapup
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5016421-alphapuppyman/5488072-nwbo-dcvax-l-phase-iii-randomized-trial-models-significant-survival-improvements
Don’t worry, we will get the professional version at the SNO. Guaranteed. Late breaking abstracts, are always significant.
Marzan I have submitted it but I do not know if or when they are going to publish it.
OK Marzan just for you I submitted a SeekingAlpha article.
Basically it’s the same stuff that I’ve already presented on this board. We’ll see if it has any effect.
I doubt it. But who knows.
I don’t know when or if they will publish it however.
I think he’s referring to the failed IMUC failed the trial that was published in 2014 at ASCO.
He’s not referring to the NWBO these three trial because obviously it has not been reported yet. Recall that the IMUC Trail only had six antigens that were used.
Whereas DCVAX has many more antigens from which Dendritic cells are sensitized with.