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Stupidity is only one possible explanation for Judge Du's ruling but I do not think the best one... and I'll continue to be suspicious of a 9th circuit judge who went to Berkeley law and who was appointed by Obama on the recommendation of Harry Reid that the most likely explanation for her ruling were activist left wing views which bordered on communistic..
I'm not alone.
Gabor... if the generics concede the case in the settlement before the court of appeals don't the patents stand??? How would any "carve out" be possible in such an event. I acknowledge I'm not a lawyer but I imagine a settlement in return for money can conclude a provision where the generics concede that Mirandu Du was actually wrong to the rule the way that she did?
Hikma and Dr. Reddy settling the appeal means that nobody can enter until December 2022.
Then any generics will have to challenge not just the Marine patents but the Reduce-It patents as well and AMRN would (I hope) this time know better than to challenge the infringement in the 9th circus.
Not interested in hearing defenses of the despicable Judge Du du. I agree there is nothing we can do about her now but she absolutely deserves to have her reputation destroyed (and high profile destruction of her reputation makes it more likely we win the appeal).
In the best case scenario she was just extremely stupid but more likely motivated by either activist political views or financial corruption.
Thero and Kennedy are not capable of sensible strategy.
The "Teva contingency" is a sensible strategy to force a settlement at a not cheap but endurable cost BUT even should they accept the suggestion or even win the appeal Thero would still fuck everything up.
The 1st step to a recovery in this stock is new leadership.
Louie Bouf says it goes to the DC circuit.
Which while it doesn't have Trump appointees apparently is probably still better than the 9th circus as I imagine even the Democrats there are probably going to be old fashioned Democrats who believe in deference to experts on technical matters rather than blatant judicial activism to smash capitalism or whatever the f*** was motivating Judge Du du.
Kennedy should have been fired for even thinking about challenging this in a 9th circuit district court when he could have filed this in the South...
Still a lot better than the 9th circus, its better if we get two republican judges though...
Fantastic news if true, I had thought that if the district court was in the 9th circus then the appeal would also be.
Yes the best case possible going into AMRN appeal is we get out of three Trump appointed judges (who are more likely to read patent law strictly and not be impressed by Du's convoluted biased reasoning) but its not very likely.
I think most of the board likes orange man or at least they did until very recently. I liked orange man up until he backed off of "reopen by Easter". He is committing political suicide now though, keeping "social distancing" past mid April is going to cause a real depression and he is not going to recover from that.
I got a boilerplate reply after sending about 7 emails...
She did not comment on my "Teva contingency" plan...
If only Reddi & Hikma were the only generics
They are the only generics that can still challenge Marine, if they settle the appeal no filings are possible until December 2022 and then they have to challenge the far less obvious Reduce-IT and this time Amarin will probably be smart enough to challenge them in the American South where there ain't no liberal judges running around, NOT in the 9th circuit which is full of communist activist judges like Du who want to stick it to capitalism.
We are NOT bluffing about bringing in an authorized generic IF they don't settle but only if they won't settle...
I think Hikma and Reddy will take it... and this should keep the generics out entirely.
Problem with that kind of thinking is off label use would greatly cut into the reduce it market via the backdoor.
But if we can get Hikma and Dr. Reddy to settle the appeal via threatening to bring in an authorized generic partner (Teva preferably) we can make the market totally worthless to them and then they should settle and then we keep all the generics out. That is my plan...
A certain poster's constant repetition that an authorized generic partner would have no competitive advantage do not make it so.
Dear God why does no one on this board get it... on stocktwits my idea is practically viral...
AMRN can make the US market ABSOLUTELY WORTHLESS to Dr Reddy and Hikma by backing Teva as an AUTHORIZED GENERIC. But they can use the THREAT of this to get them to settle. At that point Judge Du GOES AWAY (albeit its going to cost us a lot).
JT is a worthless and terrible CEO and needs to be fired and I thought so before it was cool...
Teva as an AUTHORIZED GENERIC is a much lower cost producer than Teva as a competitor generic Kiwi.
Teva does need us if they want a decisive competitive advantage over Dr Reddy and Hikma...
But of course if we threaten to do this Reddy and Hikma will settle, albeit for a nontrivial amount of money.
AUTHORIZED GENERIC status for Teva...
https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/news/what-are-authorized-generics
This is why Teva should partner with us.
We already have FDA certified EPA supply right...
Can't we share that with Teva and make it so Dr Reddy and Hikma just can't possibly compete?
As if we won the patent suit but minus the 200 million or so we'd have to pay Dr Reddy and Hikma.
The point of the Teva contingency is to make sure that they will know that Teva will have the market and not Hikma or Dr. Reddy... and that as such they should settle.
But even should they not settle we'd still be better off with a generic partner than with generic competitors.
"TEVA can launch as soon as the FDA approves their ANDA "
Great... that is not an impediment to my plan at all.
You don't seem to understand what I'm proposing.
If Dr Reddy and Hikma will not settle we will NOT try to stop Teva... we will DO EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE we will PARTNER WITH Teva to make sure that Dr Reddy and Hikma cannot possibly compete with them.
That is how we drive Dr Reddy and Hikma to the negotiating table.
If they take the money we keep the market and Teva has to abide by the original settlement, Teva is a contingency if they don't take the money.
Teva is only to be allowed in and to become AMRN's pet generic if they don't make a deal. Of course maybe we need to give a token to Teva in advance as a sign of goodwill for them to agree to be used as a negotiating prop... Also we agree that no matter Teva becomes our pet generic once the patents do expire.
If Hikma and Dr. Reddy don't accept a deal we perhaps get a small royalty on the generic sales of Teva's product.
But most likely under such a threat that we will go scorched earth and help Teva shut them out on Vascepa they will make a deal (which will cost us a couple hundred million probably but that cannot be helped) and we can put this whole ugly affair of this activist judge far behind us.
The thing I like about this proposed Teva contingency if its at all legally possible (and if its not I like to hear why its not) is it doesn't depend on the 9th circuit court of appeals* to overturn the ruling. It just depends on offering Hikma and Dr. Reddy a choice.
1) Take money (unfortunately probably a lot more money than John Thero could have settled for before) to go away
2) We are going to make sure Teva gets the US market and not you because we will make it impossible for you to compete.
* which is also full of left wing nutcases like Du who think breaking patents is their way of sticking it to capitalism
Kiwi that Teva can enter as soon as AMRN allows them to is exactly the point. But AMRN could also help TEVA out at the expense of Dr. Reddy and Hikma in such a way that Dr. Reddy and Hikma won't realistically be able to compete with them.
That is unless Dr. Reddy and Hikma will take a lot of money to go away.
Playing Teva off the other generics and AMRN's options RE generics and persuading them to accept a settlement (I'm not sure if this is legal RE antitrust).
AMRN will initially control most of the supply and probably the lowest cost supply... SO in the event that either Hikma or Dr Reddy enter the US market AMRN could theoretically also allow in Teva (waiving their settlement) AND offer to supply them at a lower cost in return for a small royalty on their own pills.
This should make it almost impossible for Hikma and Dr Reddy to compete against Teva in the generic space.
AMRN could plausibly threaten to do this and get Hikma and Dr Reddy to accept a settlement for say 150 million dollars.
I hope they have named an interim CEO...
The road to recovery starts with the firing of at least Thero and Kennedy.
There is hate in my heart enough for JT and the stupid or corrupt liberal activist judge both...
I think we got a hard lesson that judges don't always rule on what they are supposed to yesterday...
We need to let the world know that she didn't rule on what she was supposed to rule on either...
Louie... the benefit other than pure veageance is I want her name in an official circles as a horribly bad judge by the time AMRN is arguing the appeals as this makes AMRN more likely to prevail.
Given that I was long for most of my position into her ruling I guess I just am...
As long as we don't do anything illegal what is the harm?
I understand that (short of finding she committed a felony) nothing can get her fired and this directly overturned (without the appeal's process)...
But ruining her reputation (by all means LEGAL) will be helpful to AMRN's appeal.
Who cares...
It will help AMRN's appeal chances if this case becomes high profile and the judge is percieved as tainted, as a crooked and/or stupid judge. All AMRN shareholders should make a hobby of questioning the judges intelligence and integrity, write your congresscritters, write everyone you can of note complaining. Do everything WITHIN THE LAW to ruin her reputation.
We need to make this activist Obama appointed judge as toxic as possible (again WITHIN THE LAW).
"I’ve expressed my concerns to them, predictably no response yet. For any of you still reading I urge you to email IR, voice demands. Voice action, let them know you won’t sit idly by with Europe open and untouched. Our best hope is Europe gets a bidding war. Someone will want it. Someone will pay for a Europe empire. Be smart, this is last leverage now."
Yes... and to fire John Thero and Kennedy (and also that they NOT be on the board).
It is VERY important that heads roll now and it very likely will help. Stocks can often begin a vigorous turnaround with the right leadership.
Silver linings
1. Thero and Kennedy are now extremely likely to be fired (I suggest everyone email IR demanding this). While the temporary drop in the stock price is depressing beyond belief the company is more valuable without Thero running it and we should now finally be rid of him. Its too bad their compensation likely cannot be clawed back.
2. Her dishonor Mirandu Du's ridiculous, stupid insane opinion (perhaps motivated by stupidity, corruption or liberal activism) based on an ambigious nutrition study that never in a million years would have been accepted even by the patent office or the FDA (even the kinder gentler pre Thalidomide FDA) has a good chance of being overturned by the appeals court or perhaps even the patent office...
3. The generics are not likely to be able to enter the market anytime soon. FDA cannot accept any application until December 2022.
4. This is not the best drug for generics to compete with.
5. AMRN is in a position to create supply difficulties for generics.
6. This ruling has no bearing on foreign countries.
7. The short position is likely to cover here.
The ITC case was not a good case and I never thought we would win.
This ruling by Du otoh is an obvious travesty of justice, we should be able to delay generics and ultimately win on appeal either via the patent office or in appeals court.
Her dishonor supposedly referred to Vascepa as "fish oil" in court... can anyone confirm this?
If so that speaks to clear bias and prejudice against AMRN.
Supertens... Great post. I feel 1000x times better. If we only possibly lose 3 years of patent protection... AND it gets rid of JT and Kennedy this could be the best thing to ever happen to the company in the long term.
If I'm JT I plan my retirement. JT needs to be fired tommorow.
I have emailed Elisabeth Schwartz and asked her if she can guarantee the imminent firing of John Theoro and Kennedy. I suggest we all do the same...
Nothing will go well with JT the idiot there.
What the hell were they thinking though...
If they appealed it in the 11th or 5th circuit they could have been virtually guaranteed a right wing strict constructionist federalist society type judge who would have ruled strictly on the law.
I would be absolutely appalled if JT is the one making that decision. The board needs to fire JT tommorow.