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If you look at the fundamentals of the mid-term election cycle, I think that it is the throw the bums out mentality that causes this tendency to cycle low here. This election will certainly have plenty of that to go around...
That did not squash the September/October sell-off, the Summer rally, the x-mas rally, the January pump and dump. Everyone was looking for all fo those and they happened more or less on schedule.
Thanks. Did not see all of that. What can I say? Sorry.
Amazing that you happened to buy millions of shares on the one day that it hit bottom in that range. QQuite a risk you took. What cllued you in that that was the day to buy? You had not bought any up until that day? HArd to believe. Please share with us your amazing work...
Amazing how cheap they were when you think about it. Talk about complacency.
What is a Nand based PC?
So I guess we can all agree that 15900 is important....
Tunnel vision?
They sure did kill those calls. Looks like 42 might be a good floor. 41 is still looking a bit drastic.
HEre are a couple of thoughts from the ever-valuable Hussman:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc051219.htm
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060109.htm
Just looking at the figures. I have had a good month already and got a bit defensive at the close. Still net long but stops are in everywhere that I an still holding.
Just looked at QQQQ options. It is that time of month. Huge volume of calls still out of the money at 43. If they put those in the money, I know there must be a conspiracy afloat. <GGG>
At 42 they kill 320K class by putting 30K puts in the money. Even between 42 and 41 they only put 162k puts in the money while taking out 260K calls. 41 seems to be the floor. If max pain works this month, look for a drop to 41 next week. Otherwise, this should get real interesting.
BTW $64 oil will be the reson cited in the news...<GGG>
Trying to keep your families happy again, eh?
Yup. Amazing what a load of cash and a great brand can do...
Funny, INTC is kind of crappy too. Hard to believe that they will resist the 11K party hats when they have gotten this close. Then 2328 gets them nearly 5 year highs on the Comp. They just love those kind of headlines.
I know. I amjust amazed that the NDX can be so good w/o it. It must make a good portion.
Amazing that the Naz is outperforming like this w/o MSFT.
Before anyone starts dusting off the January barometer, I did some work, looking at the last 8 years. I figure that is the contemporary era of the stock market. Tell me if there is any use to this tool at all and I will send you to the corner to start flipping coins.
2005. January first week a disaster by historical standards. Then flat. Slightly subpar year. The month sort of correlates but the first week does not correlate with the month or the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2005&d=00&e=31&f=2005&...
2004 First week modestly good. Rest of month flat. Year pretty average by historical standards. January went like the year, pretty average.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2004&d=00&e=31&f=2004&...
2003. First week excellent. Month terrible. Year excellent. The first week did not predict the month but did predict the year. The month did not predict the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2003&d=00&e=31&f=2003&...
2002. First week decent. Month subpar. Year bad. The first week did not predict the moth or the year and the month did not predict at all how bad it was.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2002&d=00&e=31&f=2002&...
2001. First week kind of bad. Month pretty good. Year terrible. First week did not really predict the month or the year. The month did not predict the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2001&d=00&e=31&f=2001&...
2000. BAd first week. Bad January. Bad year. Kind of a good prediction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2000&d=00&e=31&f=2000&...
1999. Good first week. Flat for rest of the month. Good year. Much like 2004. Pretty good prediction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=1999&d=00&e=31&f=1999&...
1998. Bad first week. Flat January. Awesome year. No correlation anywhere.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=1998&d=00&e=31&f=1998&...
yes, but upper incomes make up a larger part of discretionary spending. Don't count them out.
Da: Your best post ever....
I like your read on that.
Thanks. ALthough, I do have trouble with ORd's volume studies becuase of seasonal factors. He never accoutns for holiday induced low volume etc.
The NASI really has to run before I am a believer.
New Ord:
http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
Note the SPX is meeting his sell signal requirements if it stays bewlow 1275.80 on light volume. Naz did not quite get to his trigger of 2278. Bopttom line is we are at double tops with December highs and some of the exuberance seems to be wearing off. If they can't get another dose of exuberance, the trend is down for a bit at least.
Moving down and still crossed over. Have to wait and see what is up with that.
Nice move in Mister Softie today. Any thoughts. Thought I would put a stop just below 26.4.
Funny that the news is all about reaction to Fed notes. Nothing new at all there. What does a "not large number of rises" mean? Sounds like a few more. Shouldn't really have been good news. Provign once again AJTJ's law #1: News means nothing.
How bout that move on the goldstocks? WHen they start taking notice of that, I'll get out of gold.
When is the meeting?
Hey Bull-- Awesome picks on 1/1 of last year:HSGFX, PCRDX, PRPFX, QRAAX, RSNRX and TAVIX. I own several. Did you cash these out at some point? I don't see them on the current post.
Thx
Good for you.... Glad to hear it....
Just last year. Just trading RSP. GZ trades the SP futures.
I fully agree with your self-assessment. Well-said.
You would think that EOY has an even larger effect. Especially with the DJI so flat for the year with two trading days left. Will they dump so that they can get their healthy January or will they move it up so that they can say that the Dow was positive for the 3rd year? Or maybe they like it where it is...
Last year the market made a nice falling wedge to end the year.
Absolutely. ANything that increases probablility is worth using. Just remember that you are basically counting cards and that you are still going to lose 45%-49% of the time with the best timing system. You'll still make a lot of money even with a 55-45 split. I know that you are aware of that and your work allows for plenty of wrong turns as long as there are less wrongs than rights. Same with Onishcka. He never gets emoitional about a mis-read. He just moves on to the next high-probability play. It is not whether a given call is wrong or right. it is all about the returns.
It is not really being watched as of yet. IT suffers from whipsaw in trendless markets but it has grabbed nearly every large move over the last year. I have not traded every signal and have missed a few good moves and had a 42% return on the money that I invested using this system. Low risk, high return. Don't ask me how it works.
Might be a shell game but it has better returns then your coin flips...
Because they use a mechanical model that seems to work. No prediction crap.
PAtrick-- Good jo exposing how ridiculous predictions are. All they do is sap energy from the reall effort of trading and add an emotional edge to what needs to be an entirely unemotional pursuit. I suggest you check out this thread:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=37195
Aaah...Looks reasonable, but 1275 could have been the 5. What do you think we should look for to differentiate?
But you have the new high within the 4. I agree that the 5 might not be over, but the mid-December high has to be part of it, doesn't it? The 5 is still good until 1250, but the fact that we are got back well below the 3 is troubling, isn't it? it looks more like the beginning of a down then the end of an up.
YOu have anew high at 1275 within Wave 4. Can that work? Seems like a Wave 5 high to me.
Markets might do a U turn here with the Fed news much as they did with the hurricanes where an initail dump turned into a rally. THings seem to work in reverse around here these days.