ajtj99's Market Pulse

[SteveO]

Before anyone starts dusting off the January barometer, I did some work, looking at the last 8 years. I figure that is the contemporary era of the stock market. Tell me if there is any use to this tool at all and I will send you to the corner to start flipping coins.

2005. January first week a disaster by historical standards. Then flat. Slightly subpar year. The month sort of correlates but the first week does not correlate with the month or the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2005&d=00&e=31&f=2005&...

2004 First week modestly good. Rest of month flat. Year pretty average by historical standards. January went like the year, pretty average.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2004&d=00&e=31&f=2004&...

2003. First week excellent. Month terrible. Year excellent. The first week did not predict the month but did predict the year. The month did not predict the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2003&d=00&e=31&f=2003&...

2002. First week decent. Month subpar. Year bad. The first week did not predict the moth or the year and the month did not predict at all how bad it was.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2002&d=00&e=31&f=2002&...

2001. First week kind of bad. Month pretty good. Year terrible. First week did not really predict the month or the year. The month did not predict the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2001&d=00&e=31&f=2001&...

2000. BAd first week. Bad January. Bad year. Kind of a good prediction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=2000&d=00&e=31&f=2000&...

1999. Good first week. Flat for rest of the month. Good year. Much like 2004. Pretty good prediction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=1999&d=00&e=31&f=1999&...

1998. Bad first week. Flat January. Awesome year. No correlation anywhere.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC&a=00&b=1&c=1998&d=00&e=31&f=1998&...