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ALRY or HEMI?
I just scanned through 28 of Hemi's PRs. I am not impressed. In all those PRs I only saw three that mentioned bopd..
One had this statement "Tebbens-Hemi-2 oil well flushed in at 43 bbls per day after the fracing process was completed". "Flushed in" includes associated water, fracing fluid as well as oil. There is no real indicatoer of how much oil was produced.They could have waited a few days and given a stabilized flow. But they didn't.
In another PR they said the Kansas production for November 2007 was 456 bopd and for December 489. No other mention in the 28 PR of monthly production.
In the 1st half 2007 report there was a mention of re-working a well that had been producing 1 - 2 bop. After re-work it "Flushed in" at 63 bop. There's that "flushedin "term again.
Their oil revs for the half year were $112,000. At $70 oil that's only 1600bbls for the half. No production quantities were given.
They drilled a number of wells but NEVER gave production for any of them. They put out lots of good sounding PRs, but show little has been delivered. Their O/s is ~ 64mm. I'll take ALRY!!!
I don't think IDRILL4 was saying Sanford is holding the PPS down by hitting buy / sell all day. I think he was saying Sanford is holding it down by staying silent on production and drilling.
Hey wait a minute!!! What if the news is SOOO bad that he's proping it up by staying silent.
( Mr Sanford. If you are reading this, look at how wild speculation can get, the longer you stay mute.)
OLWALRUS, I pray Sanford isn't basing his information release strategy on the response of Investment Message Boards. IMO, people put waaaaaaaaaay too much importance on the effect of message board traffic.
I just checked on how many posters were active here in the past week. 31. Add some more for lukers. ALRY has 599 shareholders, by the last published information. A professional Awareness Campaign should reach hundreds of people that have never heard of ALRY, much less hang out on this Board.
PUBLISH CURRENT INFORMATION!!!!
I agree that the most likely reason for the lack of news on productions is that it is disapointing. A possible culprit may be that the Ball wells fell well below the antcipated 900 b/m.
It's sad if disapointing numbers are the reason for silence. IMO, ALRY is in the upper stratosphere of pink sheet O&Gs just based on 1Q production. With many pinks, any production is a dream. Even if 2Q prod is flat from 1Q, $125+ oil would result in attention getting revs.
Another possible reason for the silence. Could Sanford want the PPS to be where it is? It would be a great buying opportunity for friends and relatives. Let's say a Heavy Hitter, with Board of Director type creds, says to Sanford. " Larry, I want to put a couple hundred grand into your Company, but I want it to buy as many shares as possible. After I have my shares, I'll use my influence to bring in more big buyers."
Since I plan to stay long, I could live wih this cenario, but it would be terible for those that felt they had to sell at these levels.
Other theories??
OLWALRUS. Many questions. No answers.eom
OLWALRUS, the Ball Lease ALRY has may be a part of a much larger piece of property that had producing wells. It's easy for me to think KGS could have some ovelapping production information.
I do some negative / skeptical posting. I post my concerns and other observations as they come to me I happen to think it is healthy for longs to be open with each other.
A few days ago I asked this question of the Board, and had no takers. Can anyone think of a GOOD reason why Sanford hasn't published 2 Q production? I can think of a few BAD ones.
I certainly hope the list was a partial list, but it didn't say so. I just added up all the numbers the State of Kansas listed.
OLWALRUS. Go to the link that hillzman provided. Click on the lease name and you will see the 2008 info.
"Why has Eagle been mining/bulk sampling there for years up until the tragedy in their family occurred? You think they like breaking even? Losing money?"
According to the oft quoted Paul, BLM geologist, Eagle Mining is a father / son operation that worked with homemade equipment for a short time in the summer. It doesn't necessarily follow that if a father/ son operation can sweat out a little money while BSing, that a company with debt and over 800,000,000 O/S can turn a profit by BSing on the same claim. I don't know if they made a lot of money. Looks like the father /son kept their day jobs. I didn't know about their family tragedy, other than meeting Clayton Smith.
About the 90 day permit thing in Georgia. When you talked to the Ga SMU, in February, there had never been a mention of having a Georgia registered Professional Engineer preparing and submitting Drake's permit application.
It's odd that you and I can talk to the same people and get differnt answers. Maybe it's because I didn't ask Susan "If the good Lord's willing and the creeks don't rise and if Drake hires a Georgia Professional Engineer to prepare their permits, can it be done in 90 days?" In February, I doubt you did either.
I see it didn't line up at all. If you can figure it out, it's interesting.
Ball: 12 wells. Produced 481 bbls in Feb and 484 bbles in March
Doebrook: 1 well prod 81 bbls in March.
Mann: 3 wells. prod 143 bbls in March
Kelso: 8 wells prod 159 bbls in Feb
Smith: 1 well. prod 138 bbls in Jan.
25 wells produced 1486 bbls in Q1.
I hope I'm missing something, like several thousands of barrels of oil. The production in the provided link is far short of the 5700 bbls claimed for Q1. I only totaled the Oil prod, not Gas. I hope this little table I'm preparing lines up so it can be read.
Lease Wells Production by 2008 Month
1 2 3
Ball 12 481 484
Doebrook 1 81
Mann 3 143
Kelso 8 159
Smith 1 138
Totals 25 138 640 700
Total Q1 prod. 1486
I'll make no attempt to analyze this. Anyone care to take a shot? ALRY has some 'splaining to do.
OT. I know that a number of folks here are in So Cal. Best wishes to you and your's.
Bulk Sampling is NOT an economic way to "mine" anything. Operators usually hope they recoverv enough product ot defray cost, not add value to the bottom line, as BigAl so often claimed.
chilar, right now I hve too many Stocks In Waiting. I'll just hold for.
I talked to Paul, at BLM-Kingman, a couple of times in May. I told him that Drake supporters were claiming Drake could start doing substantial mining under the terms of their Bulk Sampling Permit ( BS Permit) I described the claim that they could excavate down 4 feet, or so, over the entire acre plus, covered by the permit, and then get another acre plus permitted and do it again and again.
He told me that when Eagle submitted the BS application, they were asked to describe just what they planned to do. Eagle was then directed to get a firm bid for reclaiming the area to be disturbed and to post a bond for the amount of the bid.
He said the bond was for about $1,100 and said that they couldn't get much reclamation work done for that sum. The bond is mentioned in the published Eagle documents. He did tell me, in both calls, that Eagle could keep any gold recovered during the BS phase.
Think about this. One of the main elements during the permitting phase is addressing environmental control and mitigation. This includes air quality, ground water quality, surface run off , sedimentation control and traffic. None of this is covered in the BS Permit. It only covers reclamation of a very small area and limits work near Joshua trees. IMO, Arizona EPA would never allow a "small mining permit" ( I chuckle every time it think of that term) to subjugate their rules.
IMO, it is ludicrous to assume a BS Permit could serve as a "small mining permit"
About waiting on equipment. All the equipment Eagle was using last year for BS, was a part of the deal, as announced in the PR. What kind of additional equipment is this cash strapped outfit waiting on? Does anyone seriously believe Drake is going to buy additional equipment before they actually bulk sample?
I just bought a small amount of ALRY @ .028 jst to see if I could. It executed in the blink of an eye.
I'm not going to make one of those pathetic, pollianna, "thank you for the cheap shares" posts. Someone is DUMPING ALRY shares into the public Awareness Campaign! I still don't see ALRY as a pink sheet scam. However, they are doing a hell of a good job of impersonating one.
This backward Public Awareness Campaign is a complete bust. To claim otherwise is Sunshine Pumping at it's worst.
Thanks chilar. I hadn't noticed that. Go Bats, Go!!!
hillzman, to me it is illogical for anyone to dispute the logic of your last 3 posts. I don't think the fact that crude has dropped to $125 / bbl will have a lasting negative affect on ALRY. They still have a huge delta between production cost and sale price.
Jess, I hope you are back to stay. Don't let the illegimate off springs grind you down.
hillzman, Right on Bro. How can anyone disagree with a word of your post? As of now we had better hope the fall stops in the TWOs.
Chadman, day after day, you are the classiest poster on this board. I scroll past a lot of posts, but never yyour's.
"Luckily, the information by a number of posters who think Drake is a scam has been proven false time and time again---"
Proof and links please. This is a pretty powerful statement of fact you made here.
bigcoinman, does Sanford realize how futile it is to jump into the BIG CAMPAIGN with such outdated information available to those who wish to do DD on ALRY?
ANYONE that has ever invested in an O&G operator's stock knows that current production information is ALWAYS avaialble to the Company. The absence of such information waves a big RED FLAG. Many of those that check ALRY out now, won't go to the trouble of taking a second look. IMO, we may have a smaller audience when /IF Sanford decides to make a pass at tranparancy.
Question for the Board. Can anyone think of a GOOD reason for the 4 month total silence on production and well status? I can think of a couple of BAD ones.
A few weeks ago we had a spirited debate on Sunshine Pumping. Here is a classic example. "So they're not drilling, no big deal, maybe they don't want to" IMO, it's a VERY big deal to:
1. New investors we all hope get attracted to ALRY during the Awareness Campaign. New investors doing their DD will see ALRY's past PRs about drilling andd wonder what happened. Believe me. Talk about the Biblical Floods will not get much traction with a new crowd. They are looking for results, not excuses.
2. Analysts that may consider covering ALRY. Drilling new wells is an easier sell than working over dozens of 2 - 3 bbl/day stripper wells. NOTE. I'm certainly in favor of ALRY's stripper well efforts, but not at the exclusion of drilling.
3. Most current investors desperatly want to see some of those promised wells drilled. Not all of us want our money to be static for many more months.
4. I'm sure it's also a big deal to Allenergy Inc. Two 32 bbl/day wells would equal total 1st Q production. It looks to me like most of their new leases are focused on drilling for new production.
I suspect their lagging drilling program is related to them being a small player in a very busy drilling market. Larger operators always get favored treatment.
bigcoinman, You are probably one of those that is in contact with ALRY. I suggest you carefully digest stogie's last two posts and pass his message to Mr Sanford.
That PR was on the websites of Omaha's Channel 7 and Philly's Channel 10. That's the kind exposure I've been hoping for. BUT! When the people that may be attracted to ALRY start doing DD, what are they going to find? A Stop Sign on PS.com and 4 month old production figures.
Many of those attracted to check out ALRY are likly to say OH well. More pink sheet spam.
stogie, your points are well put and logical. To me, it doesn't make sense for ALRY to wait untill a well is completed before starting the Campaign. As you said, production quantities are known NOW. Work over progress is known NOW!
It has been nearly four months since we had an official hint of what production was. We were recently told that ALRY had gotten $113 / bbl for recent sales. That number is encouraging, but ALRY got that amount for HOW MANY bbls? A worst case for Pinks? I know of two pinks that claim to be "fix'n to mine gold. They regularly post the current spot price for gold. SO WHAT!!! They haven't mined an oz.
OK, I know that ALRY is producing some oil and gas. However, VERY few of us KNOW how much. They produced 5700 bbls in Q1, therefore they are producing more now. That ain't necessarily so! In the oil patch, if you aren't moving ahead, you are falling behind. O&G production is NEVER static. We have NO Official notification of what the hell is going on. In publically traded companies, investors simply should not be put in a position of judging their invetment on faith alone.
There are a few posters here that seem to have fairly regular contact with ALRY. Can any of you shed a glimmer of light on the dormant "Public Awareness Campaign"? IMO it was a big mistake to make such an announcement and then go into the quietest period since early May.
The other day I put forth a Sunshine Boy type excuse for ALRY not be kicking off the Big Campaign. I said maybe they were waiting for the Market to bottom or turn around. With crude dropping ~16% and the Market appearing to have stabilized, that excuse is looking pretty weak.
nuggetman, where are you??????
Thanks for the DD, chilar. I hope they are working on the diabetes applicatins and not just waiting for CA. lab results.
I was born into the Kansas & Oklahoma oil fields. Sorry, folks, but with 150 oil and gas wells and over 4,300 acres of leases, I'm having trouble buying into the idea that ALRY has been nearly shut down for MONTHS because of rain.
Dane, the other day you had little, on topic, post deeted. I didn't see why it was removed.
Does your "Why?" post mean you re now walking softly and carring a small stick? LOL.
IMO, I-H Delee Police are a bit over zealous.
Where have you been? The naysayers have been here all along and they've been right.
investorguy, There are examples of what I think sets DKGR / Clayton apart from many failed or failing pink sheet companies.
They are examples of dishonest or disengenous claims by DKGR.
Here are three:
1. Drake claimed that they could start mining and producing gold before they had permits, but couldn't sell it until after they had permits. That was a blatanly false clim. I talked to the manager of the Georgia SMU and she had never heard of such a thing. IMO the claim was designed to stimulate buying inadvance of the time consuming permitting process.
2. The Dove Deal. On Feb 4 Drake PRd that Dove was moving ahead with packing the equimeent for shippment "as soon as possible." It was ludicrous to think that Dove would ship $300K worth of no advance payment equipment to a site that hadn't even been bulk sampled. Incidentally, IMO, it still hasn't been. Doing an Easter Egg Hunt type rock pick up is not bulk sampling. BTW. Where is the Georgia Reserve Report?
3. Arizona. Chapter 2. The PR for Arizona Chapter 2 said
-- Argeement for our first FULLY permitted PRODUCING project. It is not fully permitted and is not producing.
NO, bulk sampling is not Producing.
Investors shouldn't need to parce every word put out by a company. Released informtion should be clearly stated. Does anyone disagree?
film, the governing authority for all srface pit mining in Georgia is the Georgia Surface Mining Unit. If you read the Mining Permit application you will see it is generic for all surface mining, which includes placer mining and sand and gravel pits.
When a Pink's projects never come to any thing and they keep going from project to project with the same lack of results, you finally get into a "If It Walks Like a Duck" situation.
I am NOT saying Drake has done this, but a pink investor shouldn't take too much comfort just because the official O/S has not increased. Officers in , shall we say, shady companies have been known to sell phantom electronc shares. Recent very low volume does not indicate Drake is doing this.
BTW. Twice I've been told by pink officers, words to the effect of Hey man, this is a pink sheet. You should have known better". You are saying "For God's sakes, this is a pink sheet"!
I believe this is the second time you've made similar remarks on this board.
I was the facilities Construction Manager on the Alumbrera Copper / Gold mine in Argentina. A Billion dollar + project. And I've been involved with the permitting and operation of several on site sand and gravel plants.
The mechanics of permitting and operating sand and gravel plants aren't much different from placer mining.
paid, I went through one of those. That's why I despise pink sheet scam artists. To me they are one of the most vile types of non-violent criminals. I despise them so because they know there is such a small chance of them ever being brought to justice. Cowards!
I'm here to do what little I can to expose this particular group of them.
My recollection of the Stop Sign issue is : ALRY filed 2007 financials with PS.com. The Stop Sign came off. PS.comm requires that financials be no older than 6 months. On July 1 2007 financials became out dated. Hence the Stop Sign went back up.
I don't ever remember anyone saying that Sanford had said the Stop Sign was removed for a second time. Does anyone?
chilar, thanks for the update. I don't regularly monitor this board due to low activity. In the future please post here as a reply to one of my posts. That way it shows up in my IH Mailbox and I'll know to look it up. I'll do the same.
For now this is almost our private Bboard. Hopefully that will chnge SOON!!!!!
" if they have the leases
and prices keep going up, I think somehow they will
stumble into it."
You have to assume those leases actully have intrinsic commercial value. Not just a couple of pieces of land for pump campaigns.
We don't know just what Sanford's strategery or his time table is on the public awareness campaign. Maybe he's waiting for the Market to bottom or turn around.
However, IMO, the longer he waits to kick it off, credibility problems will begin to creep in. It's oly been a week since the announcement, but let's hope he's not back into an over promise, under deliver mode.
Q 2 production numbers are avaialble NOW. Those are always current. Storage tanks are gaged regularly and produced gas is recorded as it leaves the location.
gregg, I agree that pink scam CEOs are VERY adept at developing sycophants. They whisper things they can't officailly announce with the expectation it will work its' way to Mesage Boards.
All stock scam artists were scamming virgins in the beginning, but most have a history that's not hard to discover. I've only been following ALRY for about 5 months, but I've never seen any evidence that Sanford has a scamming track record. I doubt he is a scammer. I don't consider nuggetman to be a CEO sycophant. He lives in Independence and is know by many people here. He doesn't fit the sycophant template.
"What effect will surges have on sustained growth. When production and subsequent EPS "
Not a lot, unless one is a swing trader. Whether you like swing traders or not, they are a part of the dynamics of investing and a stock with sudden peaks attracts a lot of attention. IMO, swing trading doesn't hurt a fundamentallly sound stock.