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CTON: so are you guys selling..?
Thanks bull and researcher for your reply on MDF...
I just want to make sure we have the right expectation..
I don't want people to assume one thing and buy the stock based on that assumption.. then sell afterwards when the reality is not the same with what expected...
I'm tired with the people who keep saying $0.08 EPS for Q404 and also Q105... so on and so forth...
but if the company said so.. then they should be right then.. as they know the most about themselves... otherwise (if they aren't right).. it will be absurd...
I still get a hunch feeling that the tax will somehow will show in the income statement in 2005.. and reduce the tax deferred asset on teh balance sheet (the current portion)...
just like what researcher said...
stan
and bull it's not CFP... but CFA..
mandjb and worth.. AWRCF...
what do you think on their most recent release about the $300M in sales for the year and also their reasoning to raise equity..
how much equity do you think they will try to raise..
and what do you think the people who put the ask at 3.05 and 3.10 (even some below $3) in the last couple days were thinking?
what coukd possibly wrong? this seems to be the best value stock of the century (or at least as long as I have live)...
from every angle things seems good.. tangible book value.. cash on hand.. profit... low debt... sales growth.. income growth... foreign exchange gain (as US dollar decrease)...
except bad prior management, higher copper price (which shoul dbe passed through the customer) and slow recovery on some area/industry... or maybe the books aren't clean...
I felt that their saying that the stock price is undervalued adn they wwant to go to nasdaq kind of gives away the answer on where the stock price will be in the next 12 months (of course prior the Private placement)... so today and yesterday price action really surprise me... low volume and price didn't go up... do you feel this is a somewhat arbitrage opportunity at this point...
you still buying worthy?
Stan
Thanks Bob...
that's right... he's a CPA and a CEO... he should know better... and I'm pursuing my CFA designation now... so once I have the CFA charterholder, I will try to challenge him again.. maybe that will give me some credibility... for now.. I'll just keep my opinion under the pillow...
but I hope you (and ME) are right bob.. because if it's fully taxed... then the stock price can drop again (because you know it's all about expectation)...
and when someone ask me what the price will be if they got fully taxed as early as Q105 (at least in GAAP basis).. I didn't dare to answer.. ebcause I know it will be ugly.. at least in short term...
We'll discuss about this tax item when Q105 is out...
I think we discussed about how NOL should be treated a while back and MDF seems to be exactly doign what we said (to recognize the entire amount as tax deferred asset), so far they did it just fine... and the rest should be fully taxed from here...
Stan
BTW Nice post Bob on the MDF talk w/ Mr Earley..
We really need it... no one else seems to take ownership to find out what's going on...
I'm actually glad to see many of the pumpers (who said $5 by next month etc) are gone from MDF message board.. hopefully means they are out of the stock too... hence the low price..
Once the S-8 filings and other low price buyers are gone the stock price should be in control... and the business result should reflect more ont he stock...
This is still my #1 pick (was my #1 pick in 2003)... (after my #1 pick for 2005 which is GEXA got bought by FPL at a cheap price). AOBO is my other top pick...
Stan
Bob about Tax I really think Mike Early misunderstood the question or the situation...
I posted my response in the yahoo board..
but I really think they will start to see the fully taxed EPS in 2005 (very soon. I think very likely in Q105)
they will be double dipping otherwise...
Stan
-----------------
Bob..
I think there's a misunderstanding about the tax situation in 2005...
Just logically speaking... IMO 2005 EPS will be fully taxed (in GAAP income statement) because all the tax benefit has been reaped in Q404 (that $7M additional in net income and tax deferred asset)..
my point is if they not apply tax in Q105 in their income statement, they will be double counting/double dipping the tax benefit...
We'll see the Q105 result and find out who is correct on this one...
so I repeat again, MDF will show fully taxed EPS in 2005 IMO... but on cash flow statement, those will be charged to the tax deferred asset (the tax deferred asset will gradually move to cash and cash equivalent)
THat $7M that they recorded is for $20M+ tax loss carryforward.. and I don't understand when you mentioned that they still has $18.5M NOL t hat has not been used.. in my understanding they have used them all (on acounting basis) in Q404...
I think I probably need to read my tax accounting book again...
Stan
Buffet confirms our strategy First half of this article is powerful IMO...
Finding Bargains in the Market's Dark Corners
Wednesday April 13, 7:00 am ET
By Toan Tran
Of the countless things I've learned from Berkshire Hathaway (brk.a.A) (brk.b.A) chairman Warren Buffett, one of the most influential came from an interview he gave to BusinessWeek in 1999. In that interview, Buffett said, "If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I'd be fully invested. ... It's a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee it."
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While having billions of dollars to invest is a rather wonderful problem, Buffett is clearly handicapped by Berkshire's colossal size. His message to smaller investors is direct: If you want to achieve truly market-crushing returns, concentrate your research on the universe of small-capitalization stocks. Furthermore, as my colleague Curt Morrison pointed out in a recent article, illiquid stocks have outperformed liquid stocks by 2.1% annually over the past 40 years. These results, of course, make perfect sense. For various reasons, large investors cannot invest in small, illiquid stocks, and with fewer smart people looking at a stock there's a greater chance for mispricings. In my experience, the smallest and most illiquid stocks tend to trade on the pink sheets.
The 101-year-old pink sheets market, so named for the pink newsprint on which quotations used to be published, typically deals in the over-the-counter stocks of very small companies, and is the back alley of the stock market. Because companies trading on pink sheets are not required to file financial statements with the SEC or meet other regulatory obligations, the market is littered with all sorts of debris, including penny-stock frauds and the empty shells of bankrupt companies. Any recommendation of a pink-sheets stock, like the ones that may clutter your e-mail inbox, should immediately raise a red flag.
It may surprise you, then, that Warren Buffett has been known to shop in the pink sheets. In fact, any investor willing to look hard enough will find many fine businesses among the weeds, and when small capitalizations, illiquidity, and the stigma associated with the pink sheets intersect, they form a trinity of market inefficiency. The resulting mispricings can sometimes be glorious. If you think Google (NasdaqNM:GOOG - News) has done well, I know of a sleepy 112-year-old California citrus grower whose shares closed on the pink sheets at $73.50 on the date of Google's IPO (Aug. 19, 2004). Most recently the shares changed hands at $217, or a 195% return versus Google's 128% gain since its IPO. If that return figure piques your interest, here are a few tips to find potential bargains in the overlooked corners of the market.
Starting Your Search
Although it may sound quaint, the best way I've found to screen for pink sheets stocks is by flipping through the pages of a stock manual. Published annually, Walker's Manual of Unlisted Stocks contains financial summaries on 500 of the leading pink sheets stocks. The manual is an excellent resource because it filters out the stock scams and other rubbish. In addition, because financial information for these stocks is scarce, having condensed financial statements in one location greatly speeds up the research process. After finding a stock worthy of further research, your next challenge is obtaining full and audited financial statements. Some companies will publicly release their financials, but many will only share results with shareholders. In the latter case, your only shot at getting a look at the books may be to purchase a nominal number of shares.
The Value of Scuttlebutt
"Scuttlebutt" is legendary investor Phil Fisher's term for the proprietary insights you can gain about a business by doing your research legwork. Obtaining scuttlebutt is much easier with small companies, and your insights will often be a great deal more valuable. For example, digging up useful scuttlebutt about General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) is almost impossible. Unless you are a major investor, GE's management isn't likely to grant you access to the company. And if you do uncover something that thousands of other investors have strangely missed, it would have to be one amazing insight to move the needle at a company with $150 billion of sales and multiple unrelated business divisions. On the other hand, the heads of many small companies are happy to answer questions, even from small investors (you may be one of a handful of people to ever ask about their businesses). Moreover, your insights do not have to be particularly blinding to make you a lot of money. The stock of the California citrus grower I mentioned earlier likely did not rise because the economics of oranges have improved; it's probably because growing oranges is no longer the highest and best use of the company's land. (Orange County, Calif.--home to some valuable real estate--is so named because it used to be covered with orange groves).
Purchasing Shares
When you're ready to make a purchase, it pays to be extremely patient. The bid/ask spreads on the pink sheets are often jaw-dropping, so a market order is almost always a mistake. Unless you believe time is of the essence, you will be better served by putting up a limit order at the bid price and waiting for willing sellers. It may you many weeks or months to accumulate a position, but you'll avoid paying bid/ask spreads that can amount to a significant percentage of the stock's price. As always, you should only make a purchase if prices offer a margin of safety to your intrinsic value estimate.
Have an Owner Mentality
Warren Buffett has often said that he would be happy to hold his stocks even if the market were to close for the next 10 years. You should adopt the same mentality not only because it makes sense, but also because with pink sheets stocks the market may actually close for the next 10 years. Many stocks on the pink sheets lack an active market, so trading in and out is not possible. I own a stock that has not traded in over a year, but that hardly concerns me. The company's results show me that intrinsic value continues to grow at a steady clip and the dividends clear just fine. I don't have the excitement of a daily quote, but I do own a piece of a valuable business obtained at a bargain price. Although it may take a few years, the return on my investment will take care of itself.
Illiquid Stocks on Major Exchanges
Investing in the pink sheets is not for every investor. Unless you have the time and inclination to thoroughly research your investments, it's best to stick to companies trading on major exchanges with regulatory oversight. Fortunately, even stocks that trade on the NYSE or NASDAQ can suffer the same pricing inefficiency due to small size and illiquid shares. For example, the opening paragraph of our Analyst Report on Student Loan (NYSE:STU - News) should be music to the ears of many investors: "Although it's lightly traded and lacks a Wall Street following, Student Loan is a great business and has strong prospects." It is not surprising, then, that shares of Student Loan have appreciated significantly since it had a 5-star Morningstar Rating last fall. If you'd like to find the next stock that's been overlooked by the market, Morningstar's list of 5-star stocks is a good place to start.
worth and madjb awrcf post meeting result
they will do $300M sales for the year
they did say their stock is cheap.. but again state interest to raise money... and they mentioned what they want to use it for.. hedging copper price (buying copper future contracts?)
congrats for those who buy below $3 yesterday
still don't know who sell yesterday... but I think in the long run this will play out nicely.. I've been recommending my friends to buy this stock. I haven't decided if I want to add more at this price...
also still wondering if I should sell some of my AOBO... too much overhang from the private placement..
if AWRCF do a private placement like AOBO (the structure and pricing).. they will be over.. (the stock price it is)
they need to mention how much money they like to raise..
and explain why net income from operation (retained earnings) is not enough... if $10M earning last year and again this year is not enough.. I wonder how much money they want to raise.. if they wat to raise $30M.. they have to dilute 50%....
I found it funny that tehy wanted to go to nasdaq to increase their share price sot hey can sell their shares and then drop the price again after the private placement..
I wonder if this could be an arbitrage play where we bought the shares now and once it's in nasdaq we will sell them before the PP took place..
plus I don't get it with the set top deal.. the option to buy back all the shares for $2.6 per share from the japanese company....
it's complex.. very complex man...
any thoughts?
Stan
anyone sell or buy aobo today?
I'm holding my 30,000 sahres tightly (cost at $1.3)
my recent AOBO post on RB board
------------------
Soybean sale drop 90% worries me…
I wonder whether they have the right way to book sales..
The way they describe in the 10K it seems that they booked sales when the store or distributor order the product (and not when the customer buy the product)
I don’t know what the rule on drug/supplement sales.. whether they can record sales as the distributor pick up the goods.. or they have to wait till customer purchase it from the store…
Either way, the sales of soybean product in 2003 is way overstated then (and probably the number for 2004 is understated), but I don’t know what’s going on.. how can a product sale down 90% unless it’s being discontinued… or if the drug/supplement get some warning from the FDA…
But it seems they can replace the soybean product sales with other product..
If I remember correctly the soybean project was owned by tony liu the current CEO, if the soybean product is going to be discontuinued in 2005 (or if the soybean sales is not significantly higher than the 2004 number), then the purchase of that soybean project is too high/expensive
JHMO
Stan
---------------------------------------
from things will be better if they don't do the PP...
the PP was a disaster IMO.. surely it's a good way to get capital.. but it's expensive...
for $1 they have to give 1 share.. 1 warrant at .85 and 1/2 warrant at 1.6
I wonder why I'm not offered that PP..
I want to buy 30,000 share of that private placement deal (to add to my current 30,000 share)
sorry for complaining.. I thought they were ready to use that to buy something... if this is the case they could have just wait till they got the $6M from operation (and it shouldn't take too long maybe 9-12 months) and it's already 3 months passed in 2005... they probably already have $2M more in income and cash flow from Q105
Stan
-------------------------------------------
whatever AOBO do please do not authorize them to increase the authorized shares...
you see how they use the shares... 60M authorized is more than enough... they think shares has no cost... equity is expensive.. (at least for us the existing shareholder...)
JHMO...
Stan
AWRCF AOBO GEXA and MDF...
anyone selling AOBO today? I'm still holding.. but thinking to sell some due to the dilution... I don't understand why they need to raise $6M.. they earn $7M in a year... and they already have a lot of cash in their balance sheet...
The drop in soybean peptide product sales is definitely concerning me...
I'm still hopeful for the future of this company though.. stock option strike price at $2 and no new option issued as long as the share price below $2.. I think that's a good rule.. but at teh same time I think this tells me that management don't know much about how to get the stock price above $2 (definitely not by issuing shares in PP at $1).. but maybe they aren't greedy.. so that might be a good indicator...
AWRCF... The raising capital definitely raise my eyebrows... at this price.. even at $5-$6.. I think it's absurd to issue equity.. they earn $5-$10M a year.. how much money do they want to raise... if they raise $25M. they will have to dilute 50% of the current sharheolder.. while destroying book value per share... they need to issue shares when the share price at least price/book = 1.. even then it's still a dilution...
I don't think they should get more debt though... they should grow slow but sure IMO...
I'm long on this one but waiting for the $300M sales result (and see how much of that translate to profit and cash flows) before adding... I bet the price won't be up much even if the result is good.. this stock has no audience besides us.. as mandjb mentioned...
MDF will post weaker Q105 earning due to weaker quarter, income tax rate first time applied and increase HMO startup cost.. I do expect/hope that the stock will hold above $2/share
GEXA earned .87 per share in 2004 and just got bought by FPL at $6.88 .. not sure if I should wait till the merger complete or bail out today at $6.57.. any thoughts...
Stan
Manjb regarding AWRCF earning call...
I wasn't at the presentation.. I was in the call and I beleive there's only several people on the phone... but it's ok.. there are several institutional participants..
the call is so interesting.. the guy from italy really ticked off the CEO and CFO.. but maybe the guy was out of the line too adn I think if I can try to take the positive side of the CEO anger was that he's showing conviction to do the right thing (fire 2 directors that aren't contributing well enough, etc...)
It's hard to understand a lot of what the CEO and CFO trying to say...
I'm long on this one.. been long since a long time ago... my average cost was below $2 and I don't think I will add at this point untill I see development on profit margin...
Copper price increase might hurt them a bit... and also I don't think it's that easy to get into AMEX or NASDAQ listing with the current internal control that they have..
but no question.. that this company is way undervalued..
book value keep increasing... and price is well below the book value.. we'll see if there'a any big write off or write down of asset (PP&E).. hopefully there aren't any...
Are you still holding?
I still can't figure out who has been selling the last 2 days... especially at this price they should be buying..
worthy are you selling AWRCF?
Stan
AWRCF nasty call I was there.. great outlook though..
increase internal control... increase efficiency...
fired all management that is not doing good job...
possibly investigate them...
find independent director
clean up the company (the CEO said over and over again)
I think the stock will go up tomorrow...
hope this still low for some more time.. I still want to accumulate some more...
some heated discussion with some private/heavy investor callign from italy and chasing down awrcf all over the world (thailand, singapore etc)
This might be a contender for CPTC in market cap today in the next 3-5 years (though CPTC market cap can be a lot more bigger in 3-5 years)
worthy.. good call on accumulating awrcf.. I think it will be paid off in the next 2-3 years
COpper price increase is bothering me a bit as I don't think they can pass it all to the customer... but themost important now is definitely increase internal control.
I still don't understand why they want to issue equity..
though that tells me that they think the stock price should go up some more...
Stan
Hweb I forgot about the DHB CC I heard it was a train wreck...
I didn't egt much of the detail yet.. if I rememebr correctly they started really late and there are some questions that weren't answered/correctly answered?
I tried to find the replay and I can't find it. probably it was too late...
looking at the constant pull back it seems it's due for a rebound... but just as the roullete table, (and random walk of wallstreet), the chance of positive day is still 50%-50% assuming the market is efficient (efficient market theory)
Stan
Hweb Shmolton should know more about DHB situation
People in DHB board were criticizing the CEO...
I wonder if the insider selling has anything to do with the drop... insiders were selling at $19-$22 though.. and not at the current price...
Backlog seems very strong... and 2005 result should be very strong.. not sure what's in store for 2006...
If I remember correctly the CEO said he wanted to build a $1B company.. but why before it hits $1B , he has liquidate a lot of his holding.. (I belive he probably sell almost 50% of his holding, at the peak, which is a nice call IMO. nice for him of course)
I like their product and I think it will be in good demand...
I learned from Shmolton that their kevlar vest needs to be replaced every so often (4-6 months?) to maintain it's effectiveness and structural integrity (basically to make sure it's still working/bullet proof). If this is true then DHB could have a recurring revenue stream from the DOD. the Point Blank Kevlar has saved so many lives...
I wonder if I should buy more (average down) on this one... Technicals seems so weak (though I'm not technical investor) but my technicals friends got so turned off with this stock (when I recommended to them)
I'm still puzzled why the CEO sell so much if he really thinks the company can be $1B company
Stan
PS: the 15% short interest doesn't help either. Institution keep buying and they are about 30% ownership
Skillz add more to top holding...
NTWK
AWRCF
CTON
ITEX
PYTM
ALDA
CELL
LEND
UHCO
VRDI
What is going on with DHB? any thoughts?
Can it be considered VM by now?
any thoughts why it's been dropping so much lately...
to see it peak at $22 then drop to $8.6 with similar fundamental.. it's quite frustrating...
Stan
Rogue Unocal stock is down after acquisition
how strange that was... 2 other case that I have seen was GEXA and SMTI
seems that it's more common for company to pay discount than the market price
Thoughts on TRLG? this probably not a VM anymore.. it used to be and might be again soon...
anyone still own this stock?
True Religion Apparel Announces Preliminary First Quarter Fiscal 2005 Results
Monday April 4, 4:01 pm ET
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 4, 2005--True Religion Apparel Inc. (OTCBB: TRLG - News)
Expects to Report 1Q05 Sales of $20.0 Million
Expects to Report 1Q05 Diluted EPS in Range of $0.15 to $0.16
Reporting Date for Fiscal First Quarter 2005 Results Set for April 26th
True Religion Apparel Inc. (OTCBB: TRLG - News) today announced its preliminary results for its fiscal first quarter 2005.
The Company believes that it will report first quarter sales of approximately $20.0 million compared to $2.7 million in the first quarter of last year and $13.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2004, a sequential growth rate of 47.1%. The Company also believes it is likely to report diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.15 to $0.16 for the fiscal first quarter 2005 versus its prior guidance of $0.13 to $0.15 and the current consensus expectation of $0.15 per diluted share.
Jeff Lubell, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "The demand for the True Religion brand in the first quarter remained stronger than ever in all of our key distribution channels. In particular, our business with upscale department stores was excellent. We significantly expanded our total door count and increased penetration by door by nearly 60%. We continue to believe that this tier of distribution holds excellent growth opportunities for us over the near term."
Len and Skillz I have great respect for people on this board
I actually bought most of my stocks based on the suggestion on this board (e.g MDF I got the tips from Shmolton and Bobwins 2 years ago back in Bobwins VM RB board). I think that shows how much I value the picks and opinion of people in this board
I think my statement earlier wasn't complete... I should have said that I probably will not buy if everyone in this board already purchase the stock at much lower price.. and that the stock is considerably not cheap anymore, then I might not want to buy... I wanted to buy together when they bought.. for example Bob and Shmo bought TGA below $1.. and recently it was $8... and they still hold them.. but it doesn't mean it's still a good buy at $8.. (I'd love to get in together with them at $1, and I did has the opportunity but I didn’t pull the plug)
Earlier I mentioned MDF.. I am still holding (I was in at way below $1), but I clearly feel it was expensive when it's above $2.8 (it goes as high as $3.34), and I told everyone I know to sell… and they did and they were glad.. I didn’t sell because I’m looking for the long term and I didn’t want to deal with the tax situation and day to day fluctuation… (I’m looking for 2-5 years timeframe).. and the fact that everyone is still holding when it was $3 doesn’t mean this MDF stock is cheap… I also know it’s not extremely cheap now…It could be cheap if their performance is what I expected (btw.. I also told people in the yahoo MDF board and they were all over me for expressing my negative view on it when it was $2.8+).
So Skillz, I agree with you that MDF upside is not much from here… at least not in the next 1-2 years… maybe 3 years from now (2008) they might improve a lot more… but you are right.. in the mean time, there are many other stocks that might and will provide more return than… most of us here I believe bought MDF below $1 so 100%+ return in 1 year is not bad at all…
I know I have no excuse because I already said it earlier about my negative view about top pick stock in this board and it did imply that I have no respect on the stock picking capability...
But I also do acknowledge supply and demand factor... one example was SWTX... I was reluctant to get in initially and I finally bought some after waiting for a while and then a lot of people (in this board and some other vm like board) doesn't like what they see in the earning report and also the low single digit earning growth forecast (earning was great however) and I saw a lot of message saying "I'm out" and the stock fall like a rock, I found it after the market close and I didn't have a chance to sell (so I was one of the bagholders. it's good that I didn't buy that much). but it's my fault not watching the market closely and sell when everyone is selling and everyone means other people outside this VM board too…
So I guess I did forget about the investing universe and we're barely 0.01% of the investing universe (if not less). though is some stocks if we really tally the stock, I believe we could reach 5-10% ownership or more of a company... and what they do to those shares might actually move the market...
For the case of PDGE.. it hasn’t run up much… so probably it’s still in the early stage of development..
I have made a foregone conclusion about the negative outlook of stock in the #1 top pick and it was definitely a wrong one, therefore I'm sorry...
Stan
PS: at least there’s none of very conflicting result such as a group of people are short on one stock and the other group are long on the same stock (even that could happen as some people bought at very cheap price and reluctant to sell and others might want to short at the peak)
btw my top 10 holdings (not in order), but MDF is the top of the list for now. (which might surprise you Skillz as you said MDF is not cheap at all by any measure) :)
MDF
AOBO
GEXA
EMRI
ADNW
NTST
PDGE
DHB
EGY
SWTX
Is AWRCF is having earning call tomorrow? shareholder annual meeting? do you know the contact number and what time the meeting starts?
TIA
Stan
I will try to avoid to buy the most popular stock... (it will b e even better if we know based on dolalr volume and percent ownership of the company)
I don't know how many of you own this PDGE stock now.. but I won't add more because if y'all sell, the stock will drop..
I think it happen once with SWTX.. and probably with MDF...
if I don't already have PDGE and MDF now.. I probably will not buy them unless the price is very low... (very undervalued)..
moreover, with microcaps and small volume trading the stock can dropp a lot... for example MDF director Harrison sold 25,000 K block last wednesday or thursday and the stock dip 10%...
I wonder what will happen in I dumped 100K+ of my MDF shares... (or if Bob and others dumped their MDF shares). I bet some of them already did as it dropped from $3.3 to $2.2
As Peter Lynch once said.. the more under the radar the better it will be... :) so keep it down low if you find a bagain/gem... (though I guess it's ok to share it with our fellow microcaps friends/business partner here...)
JHMO..
Stan
Thanks Bob... no wonder they are that cheap... when it's too good to be true.. it probably is... except MDF lol... :) to good to be true but it's true...
Bob.. I know oyu are down of the high on MDF and TGA... last night I read one of buffet biography book and there's 1 guy who bought a bunch of berkshire shares after he met buffet..
He bought 1500 total shares bought ranging $150-$500 per share and he ride it up to $9000 and when it dropped 30%+ to $5000 in early nineties, he almost sold but he didn't.. fundamental doesn't change, the whole market is down I guess at that time.. now he is sitting on more than $100M worth of berkshire stock.. the last time I heard about that guy, he's planning to donate 1000 share.. as he doesn't need that much money...
interestingly a lot of buffet shareholder/followers are thrifthy.. just like buffet (except his corporate plane which Munger will sold as soon as Buffet dies), claim munger.
That encourange me to hold MDF through thick and thin (as long as fundamental doesn't change).. all my friends/colleague/clients have sold MDF at $2.8, $3.0 and $3.34.. I told my boss first to sold at $2.8.. after just 8 months holding.. then the rest of the pack ebcause I really know/feel that MDF is overvalued (on after tax basis and on snapshot basis), but I know I'm investing the future and I trust that Mr Earley can execute his risky HMO plan (high risk high reward)
I thought I would sahre this to inspire others too..
I'm still disspointed though that MDF stock went down a lot but I'm maintaining perspective and try to ignore day to day fluctuation
Stan
Stan
Len.. OwenQ is still in bankruptcy... and those sharholder will not get any shares of the new company IMO... so don't buy OwenQ
PYTM has potential to be OwenQ or they might refinance successfully and easy double from ehre IMO
but might not worth taking the risk.. I agree..
we'll see what the market thinks tomorrow...
IMO it will go up (PYTM will go up at least 20%)
Stan
Thanks HWEB on PYTM... bankruptcy?
Isn’t GM is in the same situation?
How about AHOM?
How about LVLT?
Jk… lol…
Thanks for the input Hweb..
I don’t know much how easy it is to renegotiate loan or to refinance loan..
There is no way for PYTM to issue shares for paying the debt.. it need 10X of outstanding shares to pay $25M debt..
The smartest thing to do for ht debtors is to force this company in bankruptcy and do a DIP financing.. and take 100% of the equity.. that will be nice.. for the bondholders…
I don’t know what else the shareholder can do besides praying that someone will lend them money to refinance those current portion of the long term debt.
PE is amszing though
Stan
PYTM 2004 earning is awesome PE < 1 any comments?
I mentioned it befor
book value is crappy but earning seems solid...
any thoughts...
That’s right MSGI… AHOM forward PE way lower…
I was just trying to pull your leg… or I guess I’m just pulling my leg… I know MDF “actual” PE is 13-15 (if excluding HMO potential, tax credit/deferred asset, and NOL benefit) .. though it is getting glower and lower each day.. (I’m just trying to be in denial for 1 day and assume MDF future is as rosy as 2004 result lol… after the last 5 days MDF stock movement, I guess I need that to keep me sane)
I think $2 should be the bottom for MDF…
I was so close to put money in AHOM below $2 (but that’s of course way before the great Q404 result is out)… and I never did… as I decide not to touch any company with GM kind of balance sheet (sorry to pick example of GM for AHOM) but you get my point…
I also avoided PYTM based on this reason (though I like PYTM a lot from PE perspective)…
Maybe I will change my investing behavior and start utilizing 5-10% of my portfolio for buying highly leveraged companies stock… as a correct amount of debt can increase the company ROE and shareholder ROI…
Stan
GEXA.. probably the 10K (Q404 and Q105) will tell the story..
maybe margin and profitability is in jeopardy.. or maybe they can't get enough capital to fund growth
or this might be just a legal get rich quick scheme from Neil Leibman (the CEO)...
either way the real reason might remain as a mystery...
teh other example of acquisition without remium that I have ever seen is SMTI...
JHMO
Stan
Thanks Len on your view on AOBO.. I'm holding 30K shares tightly... we'll see tomorrow if they post earning or if they delay earning (as usual?)
Did you see Amex listing coming up for AOBO in the next 12 months?
What's your take on private placement? the pricing of private placement to be exact?
how did they come up with that low price for the PP and low price of warrants inclulded in the PP
MDF is better than AHOM (better balance sheet) with similar PE
MDF 2005 GAAP EPS could come lower than $0.18, but free cash flows should be $0.23-$0.25...
I jus thope that the HMO operation will be self-supporting.. and that PSN business doesn't have to subsidize a lot .. it's already given that startup cost for HMO in the next 2 years will be between $5M-$7M.. up from the initial estimate of $1M-$2M... probably they are going to try to after bigger market.. more counties .. more areas.. which could mean more member...
I guess you need to take some risk in life.. and this is one of them... I like what I see and I'm holding long term...
at below $2.2, I'm upgrading the stock to accumulate...
JHMO...
Stan
Len.. Is AOBO considered value Microcap?
I've been holding this one for a long time... 30K shares at average $1.33... i bought in after the drop from $4.98... too bad I didn't sell at $1.8 right before the private placement...
PE seems to be low... but Private placement will drag the price if it is unloaded to the market...
Earning sould be out soon.. maybe anticipation rally...
I'm long and cautious on this one...
any opinion on this stock... HWEB? Bob? Lent?
Stan.
GEXA sucks! Nice move on DAAT Bob...
Awesome earning report for DAAT
Too bad Wisc has to lose to NC, otherwise 3 BigTen in the Final Four...
Awesome regional finals game...
Happy Easter everyone!
Stan
PS: Hope the market doing better tomorrow.
Sorry to hear the huskies Bob....
Evertime they tried to come back... Louiville has the answer... not a good day bob...
Stan
Skillsz.. MDF is expected to make .05, so it meet expecation... Q4 is generally low.. $2.6M is a lot higher than last year $1.5M in Q403
I know it could be better, but this result is great too.
Stan
Stan is golden with GEXA and MDF. Bob too...
MDF great earning... /05 without tax benefit.. in line with my expectation. Current PE after tax is 15.. should trade between $2.5-$2.8
what I don't like right now is that enrollment drop in 2004 (withouth the external acquisition late in Q4). They need to stop theb leeding. maybe the HMO b usiness is supposed to do th at
But I will keep a close eye on the existing PSN /MCO business. as that is still the pilar of the company.
MDF also needs to expense HMO (andn ot capitalize) cost, they say they will expense which is good.
They also need to start depreciating Goodwill that hasn't been reduced since a long time ago. Re-valuation of goodwill and depriciate accordingly. that will clean up the balance sheet (not that it's too many, just under $2M goodwill)
all in all... great year... 2004...
Good day for MDF and GEXA holders
Stan
Bob, HUM 15% growth for 2005 is aggresive.
I posted this earlier in MDF board.
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Bob, HUM 15% (Medicare Advantage business)internal growth projection for 2005 is very aggresive IMO. I think somewhere along the yaer they might revise it downwards IMO. not saying that it's not possible to hit 15% internal growth rate but I really think it's a long shot for them.
Ask around (Mr. Earley, other experts etc) and see if they have similar view with me. I'm leaning towards 7-10%, and probably 12% tops for HUM.
However I do agree with your point that any incremental revenue that MDF get, bigger and bigger portion of that incremental revenue will flow to the bottom line. If MDF top line will grow 15% in 2005 then I will be pleasantly surprised. I expect at least 7% top line growth and probably 10-15% bottom line growth in 2005.
Do you think HUM growth rate has direct correlaton with MDF growth rate (the Medicare Advantage portion)? and if the increase will be proportional (or bigger for MDF as HUM might give MDF more portion of their growth)?
What do you think about the news below, questioning Humana Medicare Advantage business?
Do you think MDF will bear similar (increased) risk claimed by the analysts?
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Banc of America Securities lowered the target price on Humana (nyse: HUM - news - people ), "saying risk associated with the Medicare Advantage (MA) business may be a little higher than we initially expected." Banc of America, which rates the company at "buy," still believes "Humana's traditional HMO business is well positioned, but its MA expansion opportunities may not be as robust." The research firm kept its earnings-per-share estimates at $2.20 in 2005 and $2.55 in 2006. Humana currently trades at 12.5 times the 2006 EPS estimate, a discount of roughly 15% to the managed care sector, the firm noted. But Banc of America said Humana shares should trade in line with its peers, given the improved commercial book of business, which shed several unprofitable accounts. The firm cut Humana's 12-month price target to $35 from $38, the new target assuming the shares trade at 15.9 times and 13.7 times the respective 2005 and 2006 EPS estimates of $2.20 and $2.55 per share. Banc of America's top picks in its managed care coverage are Humana and Aetna (nyse: AET - news - people ), which is rated at "buy" with a $85 price target. The firm's least favorite is Coventry Health Care (nyse: CVH - news - people ), rated at "sell" with a $38 price target.
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Stan
Patiently waiting for the 2004 10K and Q4 10Q. All the best for all of you....
Mdf will continue to have heavy sellers… look to close at $2.3-$2.4.. our time will come.. not today .. but it will come..
Whenever there’s a bid, there’s always an ask at that price or plus 1 cents…
Look for heavy volume today 300-400K shares…
I hope next week earning will be good otherwise SEC might suspect the heavy sellers the last couple days might know the result of the earning…
Long and strong…
Stan
Hweb,I now remember why I didn't buy DAOU back...
I talked to their CFO after the big drop from the .90s range and found out that there are some preferred shares outstanding. I don't remember if it's $10M or $20M but the point is at that time I calculated the book value which is negative after the obligation on the preferred shares (which has higher liquidation over common and can force liquidation/force DAOU to buy back the shares at a high price). I remember afterwards the option to force DAOU to buy back the preferred shares were terminated (and at a high cost too, but still better than having that option not terminated)
What do you think? I don't think I'm going to buy them, since I know from you that they have non recurring item that help them break even. (plus the preferred shares that is not easy to see from the balance sheet)
Stan