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> Leading Economic Indicators Drop
now those are two choice introductory sentences to make a 0.2 percent drop look positive ...
16:54 ET After Hours Indications
The late session tone is flat. S&P futures at 893, trade even with fair value while the Nasdaq 100 after hours indicator is higher by 0.3 points.
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seems like the market sees the enlarged prostate as positive. rally tomorrow?
same old "flight to crap". witness klic ... (although massive short interest there ...)
mlsoft :)
oh *i* know, but with the general bullish tone here this weekend, and everyone looking for a breakout to the upside, ya never know ...
> More solid evidence [...]
um. you forgot the ""
> but being short here has got to be scary
hmm. but reading this board on a saturday morning, after the market's been closed for 2 days of a long weekend, all i see is bulls who are forecasting, not even just an orderly rally, but a massive one, dismissing traditional indicators as 'irrelevant'. doesn't sound to me like its the bears that are scared here ...
re triple top
hmm. but if i view this from a greater distance (i don't see this really as a "triple top", but rather as 3 attempt to hit a downsloping trendline off the tops in late november and early january). which wouldn't be at all dissimilar from what happened last winter (upper resistance on the downtrend with tops around january, march, april, may, the latter two during options expiry, with a deep pullback in feb).
"For 10 months now, the COMPX has stopped going down."
perhaps in dollars, but not in "constant dollars", or in euros.
bechtel:
yes, there was a story on them last night on npr. they're responsible for the iraq/jordan pipeline built during the 80's, and for much of the u.s. work done in iraq, before relations turned sour and they stopped awarding that work to u.s. companies. for example, it was also mentioned that they built chemical factories in iraq, which apparently were also used to build chemical weapons back in the 80's. (of course, the speaker may have been someone with an agenda ...)
his most recent "crash" indicator ... similar to zeev's nassacre
true, i've thought of it often. but it enforces discipline for me: if i trade too much i lose ....
"A round trip of 3 cents a share on a 1000s become 15 cents a share on 200s."
this isn't quite the case with schwab. if i put in an order to cover 500 shares and i get it filled as 200+100+100+100, then they divide the fixed commision for the single order across all of the components, weighted by # of shares.
re schwab. yup, i have that same problem. although, if you let the order sit for a while, the remainder may be filled also. however, today, i did a cover of 500 sh and got only 100 ...
so yeah, it happens to me also. on rather illiquid things, anyway.
"what am i missing?"
price-to-sales of 10. in other words, it might be a good investment, but not at this price.
hrm. but look at cree's price-to-sales ratio: that stock is not priced for just "good" earnings ...
> hasn't earned a dime since 2001
well, one of my favorite shorts (kopn), has earned only a dime since inception (like > 10 yrs). and that's exclusive of losses ... but, up 250+% since october ...
"GC> Longs must be in quasi-shock
after that futures pumping and the table poundings."
but it wasn't completely unexpected: this is exactly what was happening in europe last night, right after the open ...
d00d, i've been trying to short cree for weeks, and no shares available (through schwab).
OT speaking of brooklyn
a friend of mine in ny just told me he's sending me a cheesecake from "junior's in brooklyn". is this supposed to be special somehow?
well, seems like you can't fool all of the people all of the time. or at least, not everyone always wants to play the game ...
bourses seem to be anticipating a gap and crap. ftse up 1.2%, then loses 2/3 of that as of ... well, bedtime ..
mlsoft:
not that its anything special, but another example, where the headline and the lead paragraph *directly* contradict things said in the conference calls.
Microsoft, Intel Sales Suggest Slump May Be Easing; Shares Gain
By Jonathan Berr
New York, April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp., Texas Instruments Inc. and Motorola Inc.'s sales in the past quarter and forecasts for demand suggested to some investors a slump in technology spending is easing.
[...]
from bloomberg
smagli: heh. i've been short through SO many options expiry weeks, that i have this down to a science :-P that is, the science of riding a position, and not getting hurt TOO bad, but profiting on the side. there are just some things i'd rather sit on. like cree, for example. damn it, but i can't get shares to short it ...
and right now, cof is coming up to ~39 where i'd like to try to take a nice chunk (short). as the cliche goes: no pain, no gain. my timeframe is generally longer than most; one or two or three days vacillation in my account, ah, that's nothing. good old "investor" type virtues, ya know. buy and hold. or short and hold. whatever.
hmmm. correction. they seem to have removed that bit from the current revision of the article. oh well, those wall street boys ...
"and that is how INTC beat the estimates for both earnings and margins"
at least the wsj coverage goes into this, going so far as to quote a fund manager saying that he'd like to know "how much" was sold, and noting that intel declined to say how much ...
"as consumer sales continue to lag"
though my own personal indicator here - how many cars without license plates i see on the road each day (i.e. recently purchased) - says that maybe the consumer is a bit stronger now. at least, the metric show him much stronger than february ...
ah. well, i like to have both long and short positions, in general. so i welcome moves in both directions. though i'll admit, i tend to hold my shorts longer than my longs ... and tend to view irrational market pops as shorting opportunities rather ... which, i guess, is why i tend to take profits fast. for example, i'm planning on getting up way early in the a.m. to dump some stuff ...
well, not too surprisingly, the big movers in south korea tonight are hynix and hyundai.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=@^ks11&f=snlcvi
the only thing i recognize in taiwan are cement companies, so i'll omit comments on that :-P
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=@^twii&f=snlcvi
re Asia
well, like the asians, i've had difficulty figuring out what everyone is so boolish about in the intc and msft reports. fortunately, the coverage in the wsj is much less enthusaistic than the prices would indicate. (on msft, they address the deferred earnings worries that zeev was questioning.)
"Who can ya trust these days :)"
abby jo conehead. 3-day ajc crash window opened today ...
"This rally is simply a Patriotic Rally ! If you are a true Patriot you should support the market; looks like Turnips are not true American !"
gag. where's the patriotism is pillaging retirees' pension funds?
"Pls cite the last MSFT report that was not very cautious."
then why is $0.02 a surprise?
"Verbiage in these earnings reports stinks"
rule #2: never state anything clearly when your reader would prefer obfuscation.
bottom, no, i suppose not. but inverse head and shoulders is a specific pattern ...
"But you might want to pull up the weekly Dow and COMPX. I see an inverted H&S re-accumulation bottom now into it's 10th month."
isn't that a bit long for an h&s?
but yes, or no, i actually just did what you suggest, and to be honest, i don't see anything on a chart of the compx or ndx that is qualitatively different during these last 10 months, than the period 1 year prior. actually, except for a brief summer rally, the two periods seem pretty much identical in "shape".
yay! perhaps that's why the stock has been struggling since last week, despite the 15% short interest. brks, though, has been quite a bit weaker, and i'm not sure why ...
klic!?
better not be! i'm still holding my short ... and half of brks.
"Expect the same out of KLAC, TER, and INTC - ok earnings, lowered guidance. Probably the rest of the chips also."
yeah but isn't one of these responsible for the quarterly "scraping along the bottom" comment? whose turn is it this quarter?
"looks pretty strong so far, although onlight volume"
aren't these mutually inconsistent?
re ajc:
whoa. is she still cowish after all these years?
hmm. wasn't that the moovie superman 2 ... or 3 ... or 4 ...
are fdry and jnpr actually considered market movers anymore? i'm even surprised yhoo is credited with that (much less for "tech" stocks ... what's so tech about yhoo??)