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Iceking:
Alsoer owned a huge position in this stock last year, and sold out either after the awards failure or at the time of the coup, I can' remember which. He bought back part of his position during the Round 2 bidding. He posted all of this information contemporaneously on RB. While I suspect he may be a bit bi-polar, bumming when it drops, exaltant when it rises, I do not believe he is in any way attempting to affect the share price with his postings.
Disclaimer: I have been wrong before.
Magic
Sopmebody just dumped 160K or so, and somebody(s) else got the bargain of the week. Alsoer, you still in? How's the weather in Belgium this evening?
Magic
Just as a matter of perspective, I am quite happy with my investment in ERHE thus far. I started buying at .14 and continued thru .40. On average, I have a near 100% profit so far. While I expected more appreciation in the share price with awards news, I do not doubt that it will be forthcoming as the story unfolds and gets known. But if not, I've already got a very handsome return.
Magic
Am I the world's best contrarian indicator or what???LOL
Magic
I think the NITE rep who normally handles ERHE trading is on vacation this week, and someone else is handling his book in addition to their own book. I have only seen NITE on best bid or ask one time this week, which is totally out of the norm for them. Considering the huge percentage of ERHE's volume that is usually handled by NITE, their near absence could explain the erratic price this week.
JMHO, Magic
Balance, if you want something posted here today, put it on RB and let me know to copy it here, or email me and I'll post it. I have 11 left here today, so far.
Magic
Balance, yes, the Centurion report is the kind of release I'm hoping to see more of, tho I guesss those will wait until the awards are officially accepted and PSC are done.
We've got the same cold front coming thru here, as I type. Thunderstorms right now, and looking for upper 70's the rest of the week, compared to 90ish and humid for the last 2 weeks. Daughter flew out of Chicago coming home at 11:00, so I'm watching the storms pretty closely, edgy.
Magic
I think you two need to seriously consider getting treatment for your bi-polar disorder. And yes, I am serious, and yes, I have a degree in psychology.
Magic
Gravity sux!!!!!!!
Magic
Balance, I'm right there with ya, holding strong, haven't flipped a share. Glad to have you back with us! Had a bit of surgery myself back on 4-08 and was down for a few days. Hope yours turns out as well as mine, tho it is always a bit tougher than we expect (else we might not do it!!).
My very best wishes!
Magic
FYI:
WASHINGTON, June 10 — U.S. antitrust authorities said on Friday they have approved Chevron Corp.'s (CVX.N) approximately $16 billion acquisition of Unocal Corp. (UCL.N) after resolving antitrust charges over patents for reformulated gasoline.
Balance Builder, one of the moderators here (now in the hosp) was an acquaintance from the RMEC board a long time ago and tipped me. Did my DD back in Jan 03 and started buying in Feb 03 at .14 . Been averaging up ever since. I had touted this on the ARCS board, and randomk9, zoid, and a couple of others had checked in, thought you might have gotten it from zoid.
Magic
Bunny, curious how you happened to find this stock.
Magic
Spec29, I respectfully disagree. I have seen literally dozens of private placements done with stocks on various markets, in which there was no prior stockholder approval or extension of any pre-emptive rights to existing shareholders.
My preference for financing would be for the partners to take an equity position in ERHE at market value on the stock. That said, I do not see it happening that way. My logic says there is a private placement with an unrelated third party. Some here question my logic, which is not a problem for me. The "pre-emptive rights" things does not apply, imo. If the company were going to do a secondary offering on the open market, it might come into play, but it is not a precondition to a private placement of equity for operating capital.(fact)
mostly jmo, Magic
Put the pipe down, bun, it will all be OK!!
Bun, it is my belief that a private placement agreement has been in place for some time, to provide the necessary funds to pay our part of sig bonues, and operating expenses where we are not being carried by a partner. It is common that the buyer of the pp shares will sell a good portion of the shares, if not all, prior to the actual placement, to guarantee their return on investment. Thus, if the private placement price is .50 per share, they could sell down to the low .50's and still lock their profits. While I have been assured by some who claim to be "close" to reliable sources that no dilution will occur, period, another poster who's connections I respect has stated that we WILL have to raise some cash for bonuses, etc. Given we do not have 1 barrel of proven reserves, and no other assets, the cheapest and only logical, imo, source of funds is equity, and specifically, a private placement of shares.
Others somehow think we can do all of this with no cash, or very little cash, that could be raised by selling off one small block interest, such as blk 5. The math does not work for me, but hey, I seldom (but occasionally) deal with more than seven digit deals, so what do I know. I am certainly no expert in the oil business, tho I do know a thing or two about finance and investing. Not trying to detract from anyone elses opinion, just calling it as it see it, with not verifiable facts to back it up other than the PPS action the past week.
Magic
PP buyer pre-selling. But I'm told by some supposedly connected to big holders that "there will be no dilution, period". Any other means of raising the $50M or so we need to proceed defies logic, imo.
Magic
Ranchomath!
The last transaction should have been a sale back to the original buyer at .50 for it all to work. I think (?) the message refers to an organized reduction between MMs or other related parties to walk the price down and allow a big buyer to get in cheaper (tho I do not agree that is what's happening).
Magic
Just so we're clear here, ya'll have my opinion:
Posted by: magicatlast
In reply to: nh who wrote msg# 4475 Date:6/3/2005 11:50:57 AM
Post #of 4797
OK, regarding the share price, I have had another thought, tho I'm not really pleased to think about it.
It is known that ERHE will have to raise some money to pay sig bonuses, etc. I would assume that arrangements were made for these funds prior to awards, and, of course, contingent upon them. The only realistic source would be equity, in shares. That would mean a private placement of serveral millions of shares, let's say 50M @ .50, for a start. Since the buyer knows this dilution would likely result in some reduction in the PPS, and since they are all about money today, not some future "possibility", they could be selling short now with the knowledge that they could cover their short when the PP is done, thus locking in their profit up front. How many times have we all seen exactly this scenario play out in OTC land with other companies?
Just trying to make some sense of all this.
Magic
Gigwoof, he has not made anything off of the ERHE loans, as he was always paid in shares, which he has not sold. And he used his shares to settle with Atlantic bank, rather than pay them cash. I am aware of his other business interests, his donations to various charities, his political constributions, etc. I just have no idea of what his real net worth actually is, but I know it dropped by $100M USD or so this week on the PPS alone.
Magic
Gigwoof, ya know, I'm just not so sure about Offers cash position. I hear him referred to as a billionaire, but if that is Nigerian billion, it could be as little as $3M USD and equal $1B naira, or whatever their's is called, I think the exchange is around 320/1 . I'm sure he really is wealthy, but cash is another matter altogether.
Magic
OK, regarding the share price, I have had another thought, tho I'm not really pleased to think about it.
It is known that ERHE will have to raise some money to pay sig bonuses, etc. I would assume that arrangements were made for these funds prior to awards, and, of course, contingent upon them. The only realistic source would be equity, in shares. That would mean a private placement of serveral millions of shares, let's say 50M @ .50, for a start. Since the buyer knows this dilution would likely result in some reduction in the PPS, and since they are all about money today, not some future "possibility", they could be selling short now with the knowledge that they could cover their short when the PP is done, thus locking in their profit up front. How many times have we all seen exactly this scenario play out in OTC land with other companies?
Just trying to make some sense of all this.
Magic
For anyone who doesn't think this is being "managed", go thru this list of trades, add up the buys vs sells, and then try to explain the price drop:
Rec. Time Action Price Volume
9:47:42 AM Bid 0.6 2500
9:47:34 AM Ask 0.605 2500
9:47:26 AM Trade 0.605 10000
9:46:30 AM Trade 0.61 700
9:45:26 AM Trade 0.61 10000
9:45:18 AM Trade 0.61 10000
9:45:12 AM Trade 0.605 5000
9:45:10 AM Trade 0.605 1600
9:43:58 AM Trade 0.605 3000
9:43:56 AM Ask 0.61 2500
9:43:54 AM Trade 0.618 400
9:43:52 AM Trade 0.605 400
9:43:40 AM Bid 0.605 2500
9:43:34 AM Ask 0.618 2500
9:43:34 AM Bid 0.6 2500
9:43:34 AM Trade 0.62 70000
9:43:32 AM Trade 0.62 21000
9:43:18 AM Trade 0.62 25000
9:43:12 AM Trade 0.615 3000
9:43:12 AM Bid 0.615 2500
9:43:06 AM Bid 0.605 2500
9:43:04 AM Trade 0.605 2500
9:43:02 AM Ask 0.62 2500
Unbefuckinglievable!!!!!!!!!!!
And the right back to where it was:
Rec. Time Action Price Volume
3:26:04 PM Ask 0.705 2500
3:26:02 PM Trade 0.7 2500
3:25:18 PM Trade 0.695 2500
3:25:06 PM Ask 0.7 2500
3:24:40 PM Trade 0.705 2000
Notice that an 80K buy at the ask barely budged the price:
Rec. Time Action Price Volume
3:24:40 PM Trade 0.705 2000
3:24:38 PM Ask 0.71 2500
3:24:36 PM Trade 0.705 9800
3:23:46 PM Ask 0.705 2500
3:23:42 PM Bid 0.695 2500
3:23:42 PM Trade 0.705 8000
3:23:28 PM Bid 0.705 2500
3:21:04 PM Bid 0.695 2500
3:19:48 PM Trade 0.71 2000
3:19:24 PM Trade 0.7 2500
3:19:18 PM Bid 0.7 2500
3:18:56 PM Bid 0.695 2500
3:18:52 PM Bid 0.7 2500
3:18:52 PM Ask 0.71 2500
3:18:50 PM Trade 0.7 2500
3:18:42 PM Trade 0.695 500
3:18:40 PM Trade 0.7 47500
3:18:38 PM Trade 0.7 2500
3:18:36 PM Trade 0.7 20000
3:18:28 PM Trade 0.7 10000
3:18:06 PM Trade 0.7 1500
3:18:06 PM Trade 0.695 1000
3:17:58 PM Trade 0.7 500
3:17:32 PM Bid 0.695 2500
3:17:22 PM Trade 0.692 1000
3:17:22 PM Trade 0.691 1000
3:17:18 PM Bid 0.692 2500
3:14:38 PM Trade 0.69 10000
3:14:34 PM Bid 0.691 2500
3:14:26 PM Ask 0.7 2500
Gigwoof, I firmly agree with 1, 3 & 4, and reserve judgement on No. 2. Having watched and reviewed the trading and price changes today, I defy anyone to show a consistent coorelation between the buy/sell patterns and the bid/ask changes, as would be dictated by an honest auction market. As long as the MMs can get shares on the drops to .69, and sell them at .72, this gyration will continue, with the short MMs picking up everything in between to cover yesterday's unavoidable short selling. I doubt I could raise the ask beyond .74 by buying 500k, and it would shortyly thereafter drop right back to .72 till the "forces" are done. When "they" are done, we will see a rise in the price. Hopefully our ptrs PRs will give us the boost to move on.
BTWTFDIK, Magic
Since we had our first deal with PXD, and I expect they brought DVN to the table for the deeper water expertise and cost sharing, I am hoping and expecting that Scott Sheffield will have some helpful words when they get around to making an official PR about the awards. Encouraging comments from DVN and NBL could also swing a lot of weight with investors who have huge bucks at their disposal.
Magic
Alsoer, I take it back, rant some more at will!!!
Magic
Alsoer, old friend, take it easy, it will happen. Just kick back and let it roll. Yeah, they are trying to recover from the earlier run, and they will, whether we like it or not.
Magic
Hey Bunny, hope you hung on through last weeks confusion!!
Congrats to us all!!
Magic
rancho, fruitless = they didn't get what they wanted.
impasse = the JMC didn't buy what they wanted.
Just a different viewpoint to make the logic work.
Gone to a flea market, will check in later.
Magic
Gig, I am considering another prospective. Suppose after the Obasanjo mtg, the STP crowd put together their thoughts as to what the wanted the JMC to change. Then they go to Abuja, present their "demands", and are totally rebuffed by the Nigerians and the JDA powers (reports say Nigeria did not want to change even one comma). So after being strongarmed at the meeting and ultimately agreeing to the JDA, World Bank and Nigerian proposals (harmonized agreement) they return to their little island and report to the powers. The PM makes a statement that "we must rethink our criteria, etc". It could be interpreted to mean that the STPers must adjust their thinking about what they want, to bring it in line with reality. They aren't gonna have things their way, so they need to reconsider their priorities and bring them in line with the inevitable results, as dictated by the JMC.
Just musing, Magic
I am not disputing the report, but I must doubt its accuarcy. The OFFICIAL JMC statement said the parties had "harmonized" and were forwarding a recommendation to the two Pres. So while some in the STP delegation may not have liked the results, officially, a decision was agreed upon. I put more credence in the official statement than in some anonymous source, reported thru a questionable reporter/newspaper.
JMHO, Magic
Thanks for the info Homeport. Please keep us updated. My disagreement with the content in no way reduces my appreciation for your efforts.
Seems to me that RDP radio has it in for us and doing everything they can to muddy the waters, antagonize the STPers, and generally screw up the deal. They must be owned by XOM! LOL Only sorta kidding.
Magic
Since Sam is the PR guy, a logical conclusion could be that the decisions are complete and he is being brought in to prepare the news release. On the other hand, he could be the acting bartender.
Magic
Factual errors (loan amt from Nigeria), gross misinterpretations of others statements (conciliatory statements by Carvalho & Tonka - reported by blog as more confrontational) and generally a crock of idiotic, erroneous conclusions based on faulty premises.
But hey, everybody is entitled to their opinion.
Magic
oilman, EEL has, by virtue of a deal with PGS, preferential rights to 2 blocks in the STP EEZ. ERHE has rights to 100% of two blocks, picks number 4 & 5, plus 15% of two others. Assuming STP reserves a block as choice #3 (in which we could exercise one of our 15%ers), then the first 5 blocks are already accounted for. This is not anything we haven't known for a while.
Magic
Article courtesy of Oldandintheway on RB, who provided the link.