Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
bucks- Let's check Pharmasset 2011 value
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmasset
Need to try figuring out Pharmasset value at that given time,
as you can see below, all drugs were in mid-stage at best.
I.e. within phase 2 maximum and without having reach primary endpoints, as Pro-140 has reached for ph2b/3 already and safety is given via long term studies and mono.
Interest comparison indeed, i.e. how high is the early BO discount? Here it was like 10x above our evaluation, i.e. they reached 1/10th of our eval-1:
They got $11B, 55% of $20B accumulated 10 year peak revenue in early/mid stage phase-2:
Using eval-2, we would have roughly $15B accumulated 10 year peak revenue, now in mid- and late-stage. They mostly got bought due to Hepatitis B + C.
Since our drug is more matured we should gain a higher BO price, however, 55% of $15B would make $8.25B or
- $19.47/sh (O-5) or
- $30.11/sh at current fully diluted OS.
Not bad - go for it :)
+++
November 21, 2011 Gilead to Buy Pharmasset for $11 Billion to Win in Hepatitis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-11-21/gilead-to-acquire-pharmasset-for-11-billion-to-add-hepatitis-c-medicines
bobby- PE30 is below average of
industry 199.23 and sector 33.71
It is in the given TaiMed Reuters link under financials
as well as for DVAX: https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/DVAX.OQ
I have usually seen evaluation using PE35 and a discount of 25%.
So I have already lowered the value here.
What we might could reduce is the market size and/or penetration?
bucks- what we do agree upon
is that current value is almost zero compared
to any reasonable evaluation.
So adding more examples for comparison will help
to get the right feeling. Thank you.
bucks- numbers are not mine,
I merely put them together 8o)
I have chosen the low market penetration and high discount
in respect to given papers.
I also used a higher discount than average here.
Market size comes from company
and P/E 30 is a lower than usually being taken,
simply signaling the projections.
The applied discount compensates a lot from the high P/E
and varies of course from different stages:
P/E 30 @ 45% discount = P/E 16.5
P/E 30 @ 55% discount = P/E 13.5
You can also see the resulting P/S, which is still quite low
and below industry and sector avg.
See the TaiMed Reuters link, which also states the averages.
One way to read this evaluation is either by each drug: Combo, Mono + GvHD and compare like Combo value with TaiMed's IZ.
Or you use them all together.
I agree, currently traded value makes this evaluation
look like fantasy land. However, it is just based on
typical multiples and given market size etc.
If you can give more details about Pharmasset we may add this to the comparison in out evaluation.
This is a WIP.
Thank you.
grich- so be it, RIP
Sideline until 10-K + financials shown
BSPM is now a late filed, nothing really new here,
but always a serious concern.
We have to see whether they keep up asset value,
especially the refundable deposits
or dilute below it's NAV.
Expecting them to file the 10-K and thereafter
progress regarding the relaunch and its financing.
Still hoping they will use some of the refundable deposits.
Waiting game.
misiu- thank you
I just merely knitted together all your info from this
board and double checked with TaiMed's multiples and industry+sector.
The more I read about Ibalizumab, the more bullish I become about Pro-140.
I have noted that IZ is not approved for IM/SC in the eval update, thank you.
The linked papers regarding developing biotech company's discount is also very interesting.
bull - yes, depending on state of drugs & dilution
please check the PDF file (linked)
and you also see the 'established' normal 25% discount rate
assuming all drugs are BLA'ed or even approved.
So it is a balance between drug-state, market-penetration and dilution. As we all can see here, dilution to pay for 2 years & all trials doesn't really matter at all in the overall evaluation, since the VALUE is very big.
Sorry & Sad
they missed it now, obviously.
So the HIV AGS-004 is left to be traded on OTCQB.
What a bummer.
Evaluation Update
Changes
- Added 'self-administered' route difference w/ TaiMEd
- Refined spreadsheet a little w/ P/S notion
- Formatting
TaiMed Comparison, owner of Ibalizumab (IZ)
- Their drug (IZ) is currently approved and roughly equivalent in terms of market size as PRO-140,
but actually should have smaller market size see:
- IZ label requires 3 Drug MDR (later treatment, less patients) vs 2 Drug MDR for PRO-140
(earlier treatment, more patients and even preventing some patients from transitioning into 3-class MDR).
MDR = multi-drug resistant
- In 2017 they asked FDA for label extension from IV to IM for their MDR patients, but only having unaudited data.
- IZ IM IV (intramuscular injection) may hence not be approved in US
and is not “self-administration” route like Pro140.
And it should be noted that shortly after TaiMed announced filing of their BLA, the market cap rose to ~$1.6B.
- TaiMed was approved by the FDA in March, 2018. Now the market cap is the current USD$2.2B.
- TaiMed has plenty of cash
- TaiMed had only 30 patients in their ph3 and no MONO objective, only COMBO
- TaiMed 43% achieved HIV RNA suppression after 24 weeks of Trogarzo.
- TaiMed common adverse events: diarrhea, dizziness, nausea and rash.
- TaiMed severe adverse events: rash and immune reconstitution syndrome,
a condition in some HIV patients where the immune system recovers but then responds
to a previously acquired opportunistic infection with an overwhelming immune (inflammatory) response.(edited)
Therefor their overall market size is smaller due to
- COMBO only, Pro-140 applies for Mono as well and GvHD
- 3 Drug MDR, instead of 2 Drug MDR for Pro-140
- IM IV not approved yet, also not “self-administration” route like Pro-140,
which is a significant financial savings and care-plan/logistical advantage
- 43% Viral Suppression instead of nearly 99% w/ Pro-140
- Having AEs and even SAEs, Pro-140 has none
Basics for Multiples
- TaiMed https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/4147.TWO (also shows industry + sector multiples)
- Discount rates in drug development 2011 http://www.avance.ch/avance_biostrat_discount_survey.pdf(edited)
- Discount Rates for Biotech Companies 2008 http://www.avance.ch/newsletter/docs/discount_1.pdf
- Valuation of Your Early Drug Candidate 2011 https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.michbio.org/resource/resmgr/BioToolBox_-_Commercialization/Valuation_of_Drug_Candidate.pdf
DFC Evaluation based on Market Penetration & Multiples
Notables:
- Matching TaiMed's post BLA Combo value
- Using high over the top developing biotech discounts +15%
Source
- LibreOffice Spreadsheet
- PDF Spreadsheet
Current Evaluation assuming Combo w/ BLA being filed
trding - spot on and my thoughts exactly
So traditional financing or selling one asset (Pro140 drug) or ex-US right would break the super cheap cycle.
I prefer selling Combo or GvHD rights here, since this would boost balance sheet and enables them to uplist without any worries nor RS.
Edit: Spreadsheet has been sent to company :)
ironm- excellent, thank you
Evaluation Update
Thank you all for your input, this is a Work in Progress (WIP) naturally.
ThaiMed (IZ) Comparison
misiu, z_smith: yes, thank you both
directed to the whole board actually,
regarding the evaluation - comparison vs market-size.
re TaiMed Comparison (edited)
Therefor their market size is smaller due to
- COMBO only
- 3 Drug MDR
- IM IV not approved yet
- AEs?
Comparing w/ evaluation (eval) 1 and 2,
the $2B fits in eval-2 COMBO or alternatively
it fits in eval-1 Total Value.
Great notes - thank you, especially the BLA trigger event.
In due time we will figure out.
emergcy - nonsense
You have seen even the lowest evaluation with tons more of dilution and the big cake of value is much more bigger.
I called the 50c Warrants pricing clumsy.
However, even those 50c Warrants do have a value of 25c itself, please check Black-Scholz.. in 10-Q.
Therefor they would be ill advised to sell them below 75c,
add 20% min gains on top and you end up at 90c min PT for 50c exercise buyers.
Bottom line, market needs to become aware of the value of Pro-140.
As gestalt very well formulated and hinted by many of us, we just wait until this happens. One way or another.
Personally, I am very thankful for this unreasonable dip.
gestalt - very well said
cold - it has been a ride, yes
But the probability of partnership and/or buyout has been significantly increased after showing the PEs.
Company has demonstrated efficacy (Combo) and safety (Mono) over a long period of time now. Credibility of product just has been exploded, hence HC Wainwright's coverage.
Yes, these M&A activities can take a lot of time.
Good that Anthony is on board with company
as well as the inventor of Pro-140.
dolph - agreed.
And this evaluation exercise has shown me that even at the lowest possible multiples (unlikely), this is now heavily discounted.
Therefor, we will continue to fix the evaluation
but the real game is buyout, as company communicated.
unsupported evaluation by market at this time,
yes marty - this is for sure the case.
misiu, et al, even with fixed very conservative evaluation,
we are 84% undervalued right now. Price should be around $3.
However, it is always important to have a proper evaluation. Such is essential for all present & future investors, hence SP projection. Fundamentals shall win, always.
You can even look at a very very questionable 'investment' of HMNY, where some throw money down the black hole for a seemingly never ending loss leader. Compared to CYDY or any other biotech, those are very expensive and CYDY is super cheap because the biotech costs are limited and the value of the whole cake can be estimated.
I can only conclude that neither Mono nor GvHD currently receives any value, where Combo also has been grossly punished due to the very late ending of the 50c offering.
Therefor, SP development should at least be heading to Combo $1 and in time Mono + GvHD value to be added.
This surely needs to be reflected by the market and hence Company's ability to raise money in the right direction. Whether it be stock offering or selling rights/licenses.
Hopefully we get a callback with company and they can soon give clarity for this price dislocation. HC Wainwright's analysis initiated this at $2/sh recently, a good start (from scratch).
Very conservative evaluation
spreadsheet for both evaluations
misiu - Updated Evaluation
misiu et.al thank you
We have updated the spreadsheet
- Market Size is exclusive for CYDY 100%
- added GvHD
- took off 12.5% royalty for Progenics & Protein Design Labs (now AbbVie Inc.)
- fixed discount formula (duh)
- fine tuned discounts
Your BO P/S 5 and non-BO P/S 3 roughly matched
as well as your target with these numbers.
To be honest, we have a hard time how this stock
is so extreme undervalued!
Is the market size really meant to be exclusive for CYDY,
hence prescription 100%?
Mind boggling.
Here the spreadsheet itself.
52c wall has become 'soft' support EOD
Eating up through all these nice shares since bottomed, it seems.
Yes, all indices curving up.
8dema 52.8c T-Line about to be broken.
20dma + 200dma next.
What is quite funny in the D chart:
- Golden cross 50dma > 200dma and
- a little death cross 20dma < 50dma
about the same time.
Golden cross active due to high volume here.
Volume increasing again, after 1st 8dma rejection on 4/12.
A/D, CMF, RSI, MFL all curving up.
misiu - and when they say combo market size is $1B, it means they can prescribe for $1B per year?
In other evaluations we have done we do a:
market-size x prescription-percentage = revenue
assuming that the market size is in general for all drugs.
Hence our prescription multiple in the spreadsheet.
GvHD market-size would be exclusive for CYDY, due to lack of competitors?
Thank you.
thank you for your reply
I understand that selling rights, license for like GvHD
or even HIV-Combo could solve the liquidity crisis.
Such a cash injection enabling company to fund remaining trials
without further diluting SH value.
While current sales price of such license might be lower now than selling later, the dilutive process would have stopped.
Operating on 280M shares instead of 444M (80c raise).
This would allow market to re-evaluate company much higher,
like with uplisting and directional to your liking. Yes.
Since I am not so sure about the GvHD value yet,
but given that Phase 2 is in its early steps .. just dunno what discount to apply and what market size it has.
Do you know?
dolphin + chump, if you have better multiple values or other fixes as shown in our spreadsheet, please go ahead.
I will apply them ofc.
Bottom line, company will fare better to partner for at least
one Pro140 application now to uplift evaluation,
than to continue this Paulson necessity.
Paulson was indeed very helpful, no bashing.
But after reaching PEs company should have reached credibility now, so MCAP can reflect value.
With luck we may be able to get one officer on the phone for a convo regarding all of this.
this conservative evaluation shows that lowest SP now should be $2.28/sh and BO target $6.23/sh on a fully diluted basis using conservative multiples.
For sure the extended 50c offering (which has ended now)
has caused the post PE decline, since company did value herself this cheap for the time being. No more.
Like to debate the reasonable multiples here with you,
i.e. prescription, margin, P/E, discount and BO-Mult.
Note that P/E 7 and BO-Mult 3 leads to just a P/E-BO of 21,
which is still below more bullish multiples like 35 as used by Zacks or Thompson (note from friend 01).
d0lphint0m, Salz, chump, .. I believe you are well versed in this number play?
Here is the spreadsheet file (LibreOffice) for your convenience.
Napkin Evaluation ..
a) Combo: $1B -> $500M discounted -> $400M net, $1.89/sh like HC's PT of $2
b) Mono: $4B -> $2000M discounted -> $1900M net, $8.96/sh
c) Total: $5B -> $2500M discounted -> $2400M net, $11.32/sh
50c -> 412M OS: a) $0.97/sh b) $4.61/sh c) $5.83/sh - worst case
75c -> 345M OS: a) $1.15/sh b) $5.50/sh c) $6.96/sh
$1 -> 312M OS: a) $1.28/sh b) $6.08/sh c) $7.70/sh - OK
We may argue about the huge 50% discount at this stage,
but the delta to 30% could be used for certain investments
or early buyout.
Napkin Evaluation ..
Total Liabilities $16M
Cash for all trials $50M
Operating Expense ex trials $8M per year
OS 212M as of 2018-03-31
$74M on the cash requirement side one year incl all trials,
let's make it $100M for good measure.
Now let's put this in perspective of the overall market
and also let's apply for a huge 50% discount,
just for good measure.
a) Combo: $1B -> $500M discounted -> $400M net, $1.89/sh like HC's PT of $2
b) Mono: $4B -> $2000M discounted -> $1900M net, $8.96/sh (fixed)
Now let's assume they will raise $100M needed cash with
an average of around
50c -> 412M OS: a) $0.97/sh b) $4.61/sh - worst case
75c -> 345M OS: a) $1.15/sh b) $5.50/sh
$1 -> 312M OS: a) $1.28/sh b) $6.08/sh - OK
Looks good?
Edit: Usually one would
- give only a 30% discount
- applies 3x annual revenue at least
- here we would need to add (c) for Combo + Mono
alternative financing
might be the key here.
50c cheap Warrant offer has definitely ended, so says IR.
Clumsy .. that they kept it open for so long after PEs.
Company is working something out,
we hope to get a reply - callback soon.
Therefor accumulation here makes very much sense.
Don't ruin the price 8o)
No brainer thanks to Pro-140
we also tried to call Jody
via 310-691-7107, no call back this time .. yet.
Then we also assume those 50c conversions dumped at 80c on the way down post PE and buying back around 50c would be usually the strategy.
drug is working, therefor worth the wait. GL
agreed - also I expect the next raise will
occur at a significant higher price than just 50c
thanks to the achieved PEs w/ p<0.01.
Such happening and how they will achieve it (selling rights, non-US license, ..) will the the surprise factor - if at all.
TA wise, we recovered a bit and walk a bit sideways for now
until we get 'the call'.
Tony, surprise us with a deal :)
Regardless, FOMO shares pocketed and happily waiting.
I also believe FDA allowed this super fast track
due to pre-existing data and trials.
About one year ago I had a discussion with a biotech Phd friend
debating efficacy of Pro140 and it's 'new' application: Self-administered Subcutaneous IV (SAS-IV).
What we knew already via many studies is that Pro140 just works with a 'traditional' IV.
Now, my friend weighted in that the SAS-IV surely makes a difference and that dosage might be crucial - and hence of course possible adverse effects.
So .. this was out biggest worry until February 2018.
Pro140 via SAS-IV works.
reversal in play ..
Still in 'soft' mode looking at the D indicators,
cut off at 8dema but MACD curving up, histogram getting positive.
4/10 - 4/11 lots of ask slapped up to 52c,
even today accum 51-52c.
That's quite some healthy trade,
waiting for a breakout of the 8dema to 20dma.
Bullish engulfing 4/11 in tact down to 50.5c
and L2 showed some bids, but mostly ask slapping.
MCAP 1/10 of $1B bare minimum market value
and 26% of analyst $2 PT.
Cheap.
And now I have to read all your great posts :)
All good Tony.
Surely they knew the initial listing requirements beforehand,
therefor some deal didn't occur as of yet.
We expect(ed) NASDAQ Capital Market under Market Value of Listed Securities Standard?
Are they negotiating selling rights of one of the combo or mono PRO140 applications?
Other than that, I also agree that it would suit them best to simply continue focused on combo as originally planned in their 1st revision (pushing back mono a bit).
Around end of 2018 or 1Q19, I am sure they can negotiate something with suitors, ex-US rights or even the whole combo package.
of course this is an opinion based on Mudrick's actions
If Jay agrees now, finally - stock will run up.
Otherwise .. continue as usual.
Expectations for next sessions
- SP will continue to reverse
- Shorts or missed low entries will still bash a bit, even though they should better cover or buy while this price lasts 8o)
- Until June's full Primary Efficacy Endpoints presentation SP will cross 80 cents, maybe earlier - depending on disclosures
Good Luck
Company didn't state reason for withdrawing the RS until 4/19.
Therefor it is up to speculation why they did this,
I made a list in my previous post.
Reasons can be also very bullish, implying no RS is desired nor uplisting. Maybe a speed up of developments has happened?
Even if this is being done at a lower offering price,
I am sure most here would be fine with it.
Jason Mudrick's THREATENING LETTER
we agree partially here E.E.E.,
at least last trading sessions down and up can be explained
via his trading schedule as listed in his SC13D!
Please also read the whole attached PDF letter in the SC13D SEC filing - it is important.
Our take:
- Friendly negotiations with Jay failed big time, otherwise Mudrick wouldn't have done all this.
- Mudrick is sick and tired of the dilutive devaluation of his stake (Jay's convertible loans)
- Mudrick killed the stock and stabilized it a bit to make his point - Threatening Company
- Mudrick offers a $150M non-dilutive loan through 2019 only, interest rate unknown
- Mudrick also hopes others (Jay, hint hint) does the same loan offer
- Nothing has been decided yet
- Mudrick highly likely will continue selling stock until an agreement has been reached, threatening company.
.. probably not right away .. but in case Jay won't give in.
What a stock opera ...
PS: If Jay gives in via this action by Mudrick, i.e. gives up his dilutive scheme and also gives up some power in the BOD, this stock might be saved. Jay didn't give in yet, assuming Mudrick attempted this task already in a friendly phone call - of course.
My Shared Little Status Notes
Please correct any bugs, issues.
2018-02-20 PE reached p<0.01
Trial continues for 24 weeks, 6 month
2018-08-20 End
Then BLA
Expected
- PE study, presenting at a ASM Microbe which is June 7-11, confirmed via 4/11 PR
- Monotherapy readout in Q4-2018 - not sure what readout as enrollment still not complete and 48 weeks cannot be over in 2018
- Combo therapy - BLA application - Q3 2018 - unlikely to happen - it will go to Q4-2018 - approval will be Q2-2019
- 2Q18
- June 2018
2018-04-09 10-K
- Company now claims to require $47M for all their trials to be completed
- All micro raises & Warrants were at 50c now, couldn't load the cash registry but Warrant 50c TO has expired.
- PH2 mono: Protocol Change: Adding high-dose arm, with a 50% increase is dosage,
....... evaluate an increased response rate among certain patients.
-- Increasing the number of sites to accelerate enrolling.
- Only 6 pt in the Extension Study, others left - no details given
- OS 212.08M on 2018-03-31
2018-04-11 8-K
- Reverse Split until 4/19 withdrawn, reserves rights to effect RS at any time before 8/24 upon proper notice.
..RS Withdrawal maybe due to:
-- Markets down, timing, postponed
-- RS and uplisting no more required (full partnership or BO)
-- Limited partnership at high SP appreciation
- Uplisting may still be expected, if required
now we have our 1st reversal signal
RSI and A/D curving up, MACD histogram less negative and MACD also 1st day nose up about to cross signal.
Bounced above 52w lows yesterday and closed at opening of 2 days ago, 53 cent. Still got rejected at 8dema, but it's just the 2nd day.
20dma 60c and 200dma 64c on watch for a good breakout.
I know, it is just TA for an explosive biotech with achieved endpoint efficacy far from being priced in.
Good luck.