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BTuna good ot hear you are 21 and start trading/investing...
I sarted when I'm 19 and 7 years later I think I'm in a good shape (though the 2001-2002 wasn't so fun)..
I don't hate the traders personally... if it works for them it's good.. I just don't likethe fact they create so much volatility (which people said long term investor should like volatility as it create opporunity such as today)
I actualyl am the only one complaining when it jump up high.. funny isn't is because I know the stock is getting ahead of themself... I've been complainnig the 2 days before earning is released...
but anyway.. i got your point.. good luck with your study..
what are you studying and waht do you want to be when you graduate?
Researcher on MDF I'm not good at pulling the trigger to sell...
I tried not to sell when I know it can go higher.. but I need to create a strategy when I know for sure the stock has goen ahead of itself.. it happen twice now for MDF (when it hits above $3 twice in the last 6 months)..
I told all my friends and colelague to bail out though...
I think I have a (personal) problem.. not sure what is it... I really need to learn from you and Bob on locking profits...
MDF thanks Bob and glad to hear that you like your job...
one day I will do that too.. but not day-trading.. full time long term investing... (i.e. retirement from 9-5 work but actively investing)
don't know when I will be able to afford hat but I'm looking forward to those days..
I know you are not the bad guy and you don't care what other people (in this case "I") say about you matters on your decision.. however I hope what I said about the stocks/company condition (MDF and others) matters, if not now, at least in the future... I've been lucky several times guessing/analyzing situation including the MDF tax situation)..
and I'm 3-0 on the tax transition period (and they all went down hard after teh transition. NTST, CADA and MDF. and I'm split on the result. sold NTST 50% before transition. sold 100% of CAAD before transition adn holding 100% of mdf after transition). I only have to deal with 1 more .. the rest of my holdings has no NOL carryforwards that hasn't been used up or used in deferred tax asset)
again, thanks Bob for your reply. and I'll chill (I'm still holding)
Stan
Bob MDF why did you buy again.. you already have a lot of shares... and you still have a lot of shares... at a lot lower cost... I couldn't get myself to buy at these price (all my shares were bought between .30-.60 and never bought anymore since then...)
Are you a trader? short term trader? day trader?
do you have a full time job besides trading/investing? if you don't then I can understand...
I have said it before I believe that I hate/don't like traders in general in a way that they create so much volatility for the market (though they sometime bring the market to more efficient situation too)
but I don't hate you Bob... just to let you know..
MDF bloodbath.. 16% down today after 15% down yesterday...
Bob, did you sell some more this morning?
Worthy Thanks for the AWRCF explanation
Bob are your 2 major stock still MDF and TGA at the end of the day today?
Thanks Bob for your response on MDF...
Bob, I hate being right this time... It's pain losing money though it's only paper gain that dissapear...
Good job for pulling the trigger to sell Bob..
I'm not brave enough... everyone is telling me that i'm dumb not selling yesterday if I have great conviction what the result (earning) is today...
I decided to hold and stick to my initial plan when I purchase the stock...
Call me stubborn but I think at this moment they still have a shot of making it.
my goal was to have MDF produce .30 EPS/year consistently and possibly paying those as dividend. .20-.30/share dividend will be nice... and I will retire off that money :)
I only have about 100K shares now, so it's not much. (However, it's my largest holding)
We'll see if they can hold above $2.5 before next quarter earning...
I told Mike that at least it's good that He doesn't have to get the money from debt or issue more shares for the HMO start-up.
I asked him about the PSN business and how to grow that member organically. I believe the 75K to 79K member month is due to the acquisition in Q404. I'm challenging him to increse the PSN business too.
Nice revenue increase to $45M by the way
and congrats for booking the 10 bagger gain...
Stan
MDF CC & Q&A recap
1. They started recording income tax in the income statement and charge it against the tax deferred asset (no tax paid on cash basis till the NOL is expired)
2. No guidance given for earning nor capex (and they don't plan to give guidance in the foreseeable future)
3. Growth expected is about 6% in 2005 (from Humana. it was more than 10% including Careplus 50K member acquisition). MDF expect a bit better than that. (not sure if thisis a form of guidance nor the ability for us to held them accountable on this claim)
4. They started reporting on member month which I think a great measurement. also makign some change in the cost reported on direct medical cost/reimbursed cost (I'm not clear on what this cost is about nor I can see it in the income statement)
5. Cost for HMO will start to ramp up once the CMS has approved them (so they can start marketing and start booking accounts). while revenue will come right away too as soon as they booked accounts.
7. Average premium is about $8,400 per year ($700/mo) for HMO member. (compare to about $6000 - $7200 for managing the risk/PSN members only)
8.Medicare advantage total eligible in the 6 counties is 355K. only 6% currently aprticipate because of not enough offer for them
9. CMS is currently very busy as there are other new applicants for this service. (meaning there are potential competitors for MDF, not sure if they are cometing in the same counties as it is not elaborated)
10. Not a lot of cap ex expected. (only desk and computer type of cap ex). all the big stuff will be outsourced (like computer system/software to manage various new tasks). Mike said he wants to use their capital smartly/carefully.
All in all it's pretty simple result/operation.. which I like.. keep it simple...
Folks, do me a favor... don't sell your shares today... :)
I'm not selling either...
Stan
MDF Bob I don't want confrontation but I just want to know why do you think the information that you got from Mike Earley or from MDF regarding the tax is not correct as they indeed include income tax (almost $700K) in their Q105 income statement?
I just want to make sure that Mike Earley is still an honest guy and there might be some misscommunication between the two of you... so I can still bec onfident on him and stand behind him with my 100K+ shares.. (which value is decreasing fast today)
I rememebr you saying either believing stan (the nobody) with Mike Earley the CPA. (which later I corrected that I"m working on my CFA to try to match the CPA from Mkie Earley :))
What do yout hink went wrong on the information that you got? I'm curious. Please do let me know.
Stan
MDF pumpers will sell tomorrow...
but I'm loving the price recently...
I'm following Bob's move.. can't go wrong on that one...
only the long term move though.. I don't play short term too often..
Hoping for a great earning result tomorrow morning..
I'm pumped... lots of adrenaline rush... hope I can sleep well tonight...
Long and strong.
Stan
MDF Good decision Len to sell. I can't pull the trigger to sell so I'm stuck with this one long term.. I like the long term outlook.
as I said before the catalyst are all there and it took a lot to screw things up...
You'll be back IMO.. when and if this stock pull back below $2.5.. I will recommend you to buy back... $2.1-$2.2 will eb even better... just like lthe last rally to $3.34.. it didn't stay for too long before it dropped ahrd..
Institution have been adding lately.. so this time the price might be a bit stronger..
but I fully anticipate for a huge pullback tomorrow... (or the next day if not tomorrow)
either way.. good trade and good gain on MDF Len...
Stan
MDF won't surprise me if they include tax in Q105...
the problem/question is will it surprise anyone else..
apparently you are right that it will surprise a lot of people, including Bobwins.. who apaprently trust the CPA (Mike Earley) rather than the new kid on the block (Stan)....
I tried to inform people of the possibilities and did get some convert in the MDF board who also now believe that in GAAP basis the income tax will be accessed in Q105.
I'm 100% (maybe I should say 99.99%) confident that the tax will be accessed. jsut because of common sense. and the concept of there's no free lunch (if you already record the tax benefit in Q$04, you can't double count the benefit)
My take GAAP earning will be $0.03-$0.04 which will be in line with my expectation but the stock will surely drop below $2.5 IMO. the only chance that it's not going down is if the most recent buys are institutional (strong hands) and they probably buy more into the weak (whoever sells at $2.5 they will pick it up.
There is a chance that 3-5 years down the road that this will be a $200M annual revenue company with $20M pre-tax profit (which means $13.3M in annual net income). hence the current PE will be just 10. Therefore in the long run there shouldn't be much risk on this company.
I'm not selling and I know I will regret it next week. but hopefully I will be thankful for not selling 3 years down the road.
I have difficulty buying back stock that I have sold.
Stan
So Len is that you selling MDF.. it's starting to fell.. and I think it will drop back below $2.5 after the earning..
So Len is that you selling MDF.. it's starting to fell.. and I think it will drop back below $2.5 after the earning..
One should learn from the CPTC experience that buying a sound and profitable business at a cheap/right price is not only the recipe to preserve capital and reduce risk. (however I understand that the return might not be as high as speculative investment).
Of course to be profitable you need some kind of revenue source/stream.
Management lying about the numebrs is one thing, but wrong interpretation of the business is not an excuse.. for quarter over quarter CPTC hasn't deliver but quarterly loss and no significant revenue...
I don't mean to put salt on people's wound but I hope this will teach you guys a lesson and be better next time...
I know how you feel because I was having similar experience before with several stock such as global crossing, washington group, metawave, flag telecom etc.. and they have a bunch of cash when tehy file bankruptcy (in global crossing case, $2B in cash and 1 month before the chapter 11 announcement the CEO said that Bankruptcy is not an option for GBLX). but it was my fault , the financials shows otherwise and I refuse to learn and trust my own instinct...
Have a good night y'all and sleep well
Stan
PS: I don't like seeing my microcap buddies losing money, but you can't always win, you win some you lose some, and in the process you get better and win more in the future.
It's ok worthy you got to take a chance sometime.. it might paid off it might not.. but at least we're not buying stocks like CPTC (clearly no revenue whatsoever and churn rate 12M run rate a year)...
if management lies on the numbers, tough luck. but based on the numbers, these 2 stocks are unbelievable.
remember what buffet said, be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful...
it's not easy but you did it today...
I didn't buy today... I planned to buy some more AOBO... for some reason I liked AOBO business more than AWRCF..
I felt it's more like staples goods that people will consume continually.. while selling copper wire, enamel wire and fiber optic could be halted during economic crisis (industry)
btu I'm impressed that AWRCF survived the telcom meltdown and diversify their busienss throughout many countries.
I have friends in Singapore and I will try to ask them to take a look at their office. I did ask 2 years ago and she told me that their office is nice and in nice business district.
btw.. I'm at a point where I'm making choices on the business.. so I won't necessarily buy the most undervalued business at the moment, but I am evaluating the staying power and the demand of the service..
So far, this year, 2 of my holding has been bought out (though one of them not on nice premium). I will redeploy the cash to AOBO (and possibly to AWRCF) if Q105 result are good, and I might sell some when/before AWRCF do their private placement.
as for AOBO, I will sell if they do another road-kill (for existing shareholder) private placement
Stan
Thanks skillz on ACAS view.. I decided not to buy ACAS and focus on microcaps...
I never plan to play dividend stock.. except some of my holding that I hope to start paying huge dividend (high yield compare to my initial purchase price) 5-10 years down the road, such as MDF etc...
Skkilz you are right on the money on MDF..
I agree with what you said..
that's why I think the stock will go down on Q105 earning..
and I don't know why I am still holding..
maybe feeling that the future is bright for MDF..
short term sacrifices for long term benefit..
However one can argue that the PSN business itself is a solid $8M annual net income business.. and if the company can invest that $8M wisely (which is probably the HMO initiative as they know a lot of part about HMO business) they could make a lot more money.
and another thing that I learned from Bobwins about MDF is that though their profit structure seems to be proportional to the number of enrollment (meaning earning can go up 10% if enrollment increase 10% or the premium increase 10%), the reality is that if enrollment increase 10% profit can increase more than 10% (15%, 20% so on so forth) because a lot of the business is fixed cost (such as doctor salary etc)
but there will still be a cap on those kind of increase because one doctor can only handle so much.
which will be an interestin gquestion is at what capacity they are currently in..
how many more members can they take before they have to add more fixed cost...
I'm bullish on this stock (3-5 years).. but short term wise (3-6 months) I'm very bearish...
so all in all (in average) I'm maintaining a HOLD rating on this stock...
and if you can't handle a short term dip (let's say below $2.5) then you better sell now...
Stan
CKCM: look like the acquisition of optum might be a good one.. just like AXQT acquire SBI razorfish which I initially thought it's a very very bad decision
I still don't like the fact their (AQNT) tangible book value dropped from $120M to almost $0 due to the SBI acquisition
CKCM story is better. Optum is not too big.
congrats for who own CKCM..
I've sold mine a while ago.. and never bought again...
if you buy $8.50 you will gain almost 100% by tmorrow
you should definietly kick yourself for not buying... :)
Lent MDF and HUM relationship is rock solid and they both need each other...
Mike Earley also express that sentiment.
However, I do have some doubt when they decide they want to pursue their own HMO. I thought initially that there must be something going on with HUM relationship.
but maybe it's just because they see opportunity and want to capitalize it.. or maybe greed get the best of them as they see HUM making good money while MDF taking a lot of the risk (greed is good according to the wall street movie)
MDF is back to my #1 holding (by dollar volume) after it passes $2.8. However I still think that it's a bit overvalued today (prige getting ahead of themselves)
because I"m super long term holder, I really do hope that there won't be any sell-off after the earning release on May 10th as I have stated earlier, earning won't be considered pretty by many people, but for me the earning will be good enough.
as beauty in the eye of beholder, earning is only as good as the expecation...
Stan
CKCM will pull back from $15 whenthey started paying tax...
great earningthis quarter however..
RFID seems to be the future.. replacing all old technology of barcode...
Worthy did you sell your AWRCF.. I'm still holding but it's below the high of $4.6
I'm going to hold and see.. I'm not buying any more... though I lke the current management for being open that they want to do a PP.. that definitely help knocking the stock price down...
Do you see that this ocmpany could be a cash cow company...
Why people aren't buying this stock...
it does seem to good to be true...
I hope at least it won't ended similar with CPTC
CPTC after a series of 20-50% drop (top it off with Chap 11 news).. the market cap is still bigger than AOBO.. unbelievable...
I'll take AOBO over CPTC any day....
I'm planning to buy 20K more (I started saving money and selling some of my GEXA holding) but waiting the right time, till all the warrants are exercised and they have sell..
if result is bad, it's possible the stock will drop below the Private placement. (example EMRI)..
but I do feel that seems $1 is the floor...
unless the whole thing is a set up... the timing of the shares release plus the acquisition news (is too close IMO)
however 1 thing hat I credited to the management is that they made a commitment not to issue new stock option if the stock price is below $2 (and the option will likelt be strike price at $2) and so far they haven't repriced the option rule unlike other company...
This is one fine stock IMO...
It's very quiet here.. I like the AOBO pr today... getting the distribution channel can mean more sales (hopefully)
CPTC chap 11 news must have leaked IMO looking at the last 1 month price and the last 5 days of CPTC..
I have no idea why anyone would buy CPTC at the first place.
no revenue..
why not wait till revenue is secured.
I know it's easier said now since they really file chapter 11
what more important is I don't think they will survive anyway without teh litigation (I think they use the litigation as an excuse)
they lose $4M each quarter and $0 revenue...
I wished I would bashed this stock a while back so none of you have to take this pain loss...
oh by the way, I had experience with a lot of stock that went bankrupt.. 95% of the time existing shareholder is wiped out or given less than 5% of the new company...
not worth the wait...
Lent sorry I didn't see your private messages until now...I
I don't own that stock that I asked earlier and I wished that you don't own it too.. it was grossly overvalued back then.
I'll keep in mind to stick with VM when posting on this board.
MDF earning call is May 10th.. do you own MDF Lent...?what's your take on Q105?
I really hope the stock will hold $2.8 but my gut feeling says it will drop to $2.5 or below. I'm going to hold for the future potential...
but long term outlook is good for this stock IMO...
AOBO finally drop to $1, is this the bottom?
remember the private placement
1 unit that cost $1 consist of
1 share of AOBO ($1)
1 warrant to buy at $1 (probably won't be exercised now as th stock is only $1)
And her's the kicker. 0.5 warrant at $0.85 (this might be exercised).
I'm long and strong at this moment though
holding 30K shares average at $1.3
Any thoght on ACAS? Dividend yield 10%. it's not a microcap with $2B market cap but it seems to fit the value criteria.
Is their dividend safe? solid? they seem to have been doing this for a long time.
since IPO at $15 in 1997 they have distributed over $17 per share in dividend.
I saw this last night and was thinking to buy this morning but not enough time to do DD first and the stock went up a lot today. I was thinking that the market will not let the dividend yield be this high (9%+) if the company is solid.
Stan
MDF Q105 May 10 My estimate $0.03-$0.04 per diluted share...
this number should include income tax (GAAP).
more detail in MDF message board.
and as usual I got trash talked a lot as majority people over there estimating $0.06 or higher...
Stan
CFCI situation is similar with SMTI, GEXA and DCLK
though CFCI situation seems the worst compare to the market price that day (more than 15% discount)
CPTC result is out and they are deep in red.. any comments?
was it expected?
Good price to buy now? it has been droping frmo $6 the last 6-12 months
How net operating loss carryforward works?
I was explaining about how the Net operating loss carryforward to other group in other board. maybe some of you might be interested to read (or have different oinion)
-------------------------------------------
Judicial,
Here's my understanding (which might not be right)
a company has 2 options on how to recognize the tax benefit
let's say a company have $10M NOL carryforward (to expire in 20 years) and the tax corporate tax rate is at 30%
and let's say the company earn $1M per quarter pre tax with no growth.
option 1:
pay no tax each quarter and reduce that NOL carryforward by $300K, and they will start paying tax again after 10 quarters (2 years and a half)
option 2:
they recorded a one time benefit of $2.7M, and show it in Q1 earning statement and Q1 earning will be $3.7M ($1M income from operation + $2.7M tax benefit). notice that the one time benefit is not $3M as 300k is used in Q1), and record those $2.7M in the balance sheet as tax deferred asset.
in Q2, their net income will be $700K (instead of $1M) as they started paying tax in GAAP measure, but they don't actually send the $300K to uncle sam , instead they put them in their balance sheet as cash (in their bank) and reduce the tax deferred asset by $300K.. and this process continue until the tax deferred asset drop to $0 (which is 10 quarters from the first quarter)
---------------------------------------
The problem that I don't know is when does company decide to use option one and when to decide to use option two or whether the government decide which one to use for a specific company at a given point of time.
One guideline that I read somewhere (some 10K) was if the company is confident that they can reap all the tax NOL carryforward benefit beofre the expiration (and have demonstrated for several quarter that they have been able to be consistently profitable), they are allowed to choose for option 2.
I personally prefer option 1, as option 2 can bring ignorant and traders and bid the share up then tanks after they find out the next quarter that one time benefit is really turn out to be one time benefit...
that hurts long term shareholder...
JMHO
Stan
Is WIRX too expensive now?
koz.. you betcha.. get some nyquil...
what'cha doin at 4am...
sleep walking...
get some sleep my friend ;)
I'm heading to bed.. good night...
zzz...zzz..
Lent and Koz did you guys ever sleep? Bob huskies..
Lent and Koz.. what were you guys doing up so late..
I hope you have a good weekend/time though...
Sherrif Lent.. nice picture/photo...
Have a good weekend y'all...
Bob.. did you follow the guskies back in 1994..
there's 1 game with the ASU in Arizona where the huskies won...
the ASU was the favorite that time..
I read it in the news later on that the game was fixed...
and now that is a sure thing.. (but that would be illegal and I believe lots of people went to jail for that events)
It's been more quiet lately in this board.. besides the VMOG, and the SKILLZ microcap never sell experiment...
Buffet getting impatient and he's buying Budweiser.. the stock and not the beer...
Stan
AWRCF is on fire… or caught a fire…
Secondary offering plan is rarely mean good news… (unless the company needs it for survival)
I’m still long but cautious and not buying more…
Dell have it every other month/week..
like a cleaning inventory sale...
probably trying to meet the sales number...
still a good deal though...
Mama mia DHB something is brewing accountant is change in 8K filing...
and stock drop... SEC investigation soon?
7 dollar... backlog is bigger than last year and stock cripple
what is going on...
anyone buying?
I don't usually touch stocks that has change accountant... but i'm already in.. anyone selling?
Worthy I think you did influence AWRCF to issue PR... they never done this before.. so I think it's good.. keep up the good work.. I like what i see too but still maintaining caution... glad that you actually meet with them face to face.. becasue just by hearing on the phone i can't tell whether teh CEO is honest or not.. but I li ke his candidness and passion to turn this company around... does he has enough stakes in the company to make him care that much? I hope so.
thanks for the explanation...
I haven't been buying anymore lately but thinking to...
one other question that I have is what is up with the buy back agreement/option resulted from the set top dispute.
and thep rice at $2.8 or $2.6 bothers me a bit.. I wonder if that price has any significance or it just happen to be the market price at that moment...
Thanks for oyur reply worthy
Stan