Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Well, so much for the two days in a row I was looking for to declare the bottom.
Magic
If we stay green and under 600K today, and do the same tomorrow, I will officially declare the bottom (end of selling). And that, with a buck, will get you a cup of coffee in most places!
Magic
Platina, excellent information and well presented.
Thanks, Magic
Until NITE gets back on the bid, we are going nowhere, period. Frustrating, at best, but I know it will come eventually.
PXD news, which places a value of $2.53 on proven undeveloped reserves:
Pioneer Closes Acquisitions of Two Onshore U.S. Core Assets
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 14, 2005--Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE:PXD) today announced the closing of the previously announced purchase of assets in two of its U.S. onshore core areas, the Permian Basin and South Texas, for a combined purchase price of $177 million. The Permian Basin assets were purchased from an affiliate of Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which recently acquired these assets in a larger transaction from an affiliate of Exxon Mobil Corporation. The South Texas assets were acquired from an undisclosed seller.
These purchases add approximately 70 million barrels of substantially undeveloped proved oil equivalent reserves with daily production of approximately 1,800 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) and an estimated 800 undrilled locations. The Company expects to accelerate the pace of drilling in each of these low-risk core areas beginning later this year and anticipates that production from the acquired assets could exceed 10,000 BOE per day upon full development of the proved reserves.
I read that as $.31 is the price for the option, and the strike price is not specified in the release. But just another interpretation, easily incorrect.
Gotta say, she sure talks a good game, and so far she had walked the walk. What an enormous improvement and a big boost to our potential.
Magic
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!! Talk about proceeding on a false assumption!! Extending that to the rest of the JDZ and the consortium awards starts to boggle my little brain.
Absoultely wonderful work Balance!!!
Thanks, Magic
That's what the yahoo profile says, but think it should read 8.7 million. They have proven reserves valued at $26 million on their balance sheet. Just a 1000% difference, no biggee!
Let's suppose I ascribe to the "massive accumulation" theory for a minute. So I'm the buyer and the supply of shares has dried up. Supply and demand are balanced, so I can't keep it down by selling a few, then buying more than I sold. What to do?? Easy, feed a buyin rumor to a reputable reporter, which starts a little feeding frenzy. Then when the company has to deny it (due to terms of agreements with ptrs) retail gets further disheartened and goes back to selling, so I can get some more shares cheap.
So don't be surprised it we go sub .40 again today at some point, if, of course, you are in the "accumulation theory" camp.
JMO, Magic
test
PL, that was intended in a joking, teasing manner, tho in retrospect I can see it could have been taken otherwise. I thought the "turkeyman" was a dead giveaway. Leave off that first sentence and take the rest as a serious response.
Maybe glad I never got to see your response tho.
Magic
Grow up turkey man. Private placement to qualified investors are done routinely by OTC companies, and very often many if not all of the shares are hedged ahead of the closing by the investor by taking a short position at whatever level they can get above the placement price. It is legal, in most cases. It may be unethical, tho probably smart business. It may be a violation of a contract provision with the issuer, if the terms specifically state that the PP investor agrees not to short the shares either ahead of the placement, or prior to the restriction date.
I have NO specific information that any of this is taking place, just seeing a pattern I have known before, and logically, at least to this person, it explains ALL of the movement in the share price since awards.
Magic
Stock, I said not to ask me about that, but since you did, I haven't yet seen a reason to think it is anything other than a Private Placement (for sig bonus cash) being presold by the buyer. They don't have to tell us till the placement actually happens. I originally thought the shares would be sold to the investor at .50, but now must adjust that to .40, based on the trading.
Disclaimer: I have been wrong before, lately!!
Magic
I didn't say this was the bottom, I said 2 consecutive days of less than 600k shares traded would indicate the bottom to me.
As to the 3 conditions you mention to effect a "soul-stirring feeding frenzy", I concur, and I believe that is exactly what we will see, as soon as the seller is done.
JMO, Magic
SCHB still has their determined seller. Sure be glad when they're done.
I have been watching for at least two consecutive days of less than 600k traded. This would indicate the bottom to me, and an end of the planned selling (don't ask me about that again). At that point, a rally could be begin at any time, and could easily become a feeding frenzy of soul-stirring proportions.
Glass half-full, Magic
BB, I've noticed the same, and posted it either here or on RB. Logic would say there is a reason why it doesn't show up until right at or after the close, such as the buyer/seller trying to stay under the radar. Of course, this only indicates that the MM handling the transactions is "usually" representing an institution, nothing more or less. It could be as simple as a hedge fund doing a bit of covering their short position. Or, a hedge fund shorting to keep the closing price down to further discourage retail investors. I have no opinion either way yet, just noting the activity indicators. Other opinions welcome.
Magic
Now you tell me. I've already ordered it from Amazon! LOL
But thanks anyway.
Top, click on his name, which will bring up his profile, then click the ignore option there. Very good idea, by the way.
Magic
I ordered the book. Should be interesting and make a nice adjunct to my sign.
Magic
Those were Memon's.
Locked at .431 for 10 min so far. Anyone still think there is nothing weird going on here??
And not a large percentage of that:
"GeoGlobal has a 5% net carried interest in the 14 wells being drilled under the Production Sharing Contract in the KG Block."
Uncle Charlie needs a trip to the woodshed.
I do not believe you can short against restricted shares, legally.
JMHO, Magic
Anyone else note the 3% institutional on I-watch late this afternoon? OPCO was on the bid for a while, which caused me to check.
Magic
I keep hearing people complaining about the OS, but I actually think it is just fine. Institutions are leary of stocks with a low OS because it reduces the liquidity. Higher OS and trading volume means they can move in or out of the stock without drastically affecting the pps.
Magic
Am I the only one seeing only 9 MMs quoting ERHE this morning?
PERT is on the high bid. They are a self admitted (see their website) hedge fund representative. They were often on the best ask during last fall and winter, which led me to believe they were shorting. If they are starting to cover, things could get interesting.
Or I could just be talkin out my rear!
Magic
Rancho, thanks for the reply. Please send it to my public email address, magicatlast@yahoo.com .
Thanks
Rancho, I would be interested in seeing the information. You have my email address, but let me know if you didn't keep it.
Thanks, Magic
That would be my thinking as well, and could have been just part of a much larger order, or series of orders from the same buyer, considering the blocks that went thru leading up to this one.
But I'm just making an educated guess, I have no specific information to back it up other than the trades posted and the action on LII.
Magic
Gig, MM had the 100K order at .479, so they took the price down to get it. Notice that the drop reversed immediately thereafter.
Magic
NITE dropped off the Bid (to .46) about 11:00am and, for the most part, has stayed off all day, while sitting just above the ask. Since NITE handles about 90% of the retail action on this stock, that was a very bad sign. GNET was buying big time at .50, then disappeared. Got his client's order filled. Still think the regular NITE specialist must be on vacation and someone else handling his book.
Just musing, Magic
What it is all about:
Rec. Time Action Price Volume
3:15:24 PM Trade 0.479 99500
I noticed with some surprise yesterday that there were only 18 MMs quoting ERHE on Level II. Today we are back to our usual 30 or so. Anyone else notice that yesterday?? Maybe just a feed glitch on my LII, but the bid sure looks a LOT stronger today than yesterday.
Magic
Sorry, I didn't do the math on their time frame. I hadn't given much thought to the JOAs, but of course, you're right, they will have to be done first. I would expect that much of this has been worked out, at least in principle, with ERHE, PXD, etc, except for the indies part. I suppose that could be a stumbling block, especially if financing will be a problem for some of them and they have to farm out part of their little share like Dangote did, which then means another entity to deal with on both the JOAs and the PSCs. Hmmmm, maybe by year end is optimistic after all. But then, having the templates from Blk 1 certainly should be a big advantage, as I think all indications are that the others will be near identical.
JMHO, Magic
Balance, guess they were referring to the Oct 27, 2003 date the original bids were opened, rather the the April 04 date the award for Blk 1 was actually announced.
Another thought, Gomes said PSC's should be signed by the end of the year. That does not mean that some of them could not be signed much, much sooner. I can see where blks 5 & 6 could definitely take a while, since financing and technical expertise could be an issue for the winners in those, among other things. With our partners' experience and legal teams, I would be surprised if it took more than a couple of months to get the PSCs signed. BTWTFDIK?
Magic
Volunteers for what?? I might be interested if I had more info.
YOu have my email address.
Magic