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Oups several of them had Cytodyn shares that were worthless before the pump and now pretty high priced. Talk about an incentive to pump (or, at the very least, not be publicly critical).
Oups, several of them have a business provider relationship with Cytodyn. Mmhhh...
Buyer Strike did an excellent job detailing why Cytodyn is a fraud.
Reading their posts, whether long or short, is key to stress-test one's investment thesis.
Only facts and not the kind of facts that Cytodyn has been proactive about.
Last post (but all are mandatory reading):
https://buyersstrike.com/2021/02/23/while-we-wait-4-which-2020-press-release-does-cytodyn-hope-you-have-forgotten-cydy/
Cytodyn looks like a fraud.
SAEs are not efficacy. Otherwise, if it were so straightforward,the FDA would have approved Leronlimab right away. They didn't. In fact not a single country regulator worldwide has approved Leronlimab. Even third world countries don't want it.
Only successful CD10 endpoint (out of 18) was a handpicked NEWS2 measure with a different (also handpicked) definition than the one that was specified in the beginning of the study. Not oxygenation but the way the NEWS2 measure is aggregated. All country regulators declined Leronlimab based on CD10 results and even the company itself finally recognized that "its result would not support a demand". It's useless to debate this trial, it's dead already.
It's not the first failure. The company has been rotating over the last 10 years through countless promises, always "very positive", and the end result is always the same: disappointing, a failure, and a sudden change of direction toward a new use for the drug or a new miracle meeting with someone.
Who remembers Thailand, the HIV BLA, Mexico, the billionnaire investor, the MHRA, the "couple weeks" NASDAQ uplist, Canada, the FDA phone call, the BLA "couple weeks" fix, the CD12 50 patients interim, the Lazarus CD12 interim success, the "non dilutive" loan, the Leronlimab+Remdesivir trial, ...
I bet soon the promotion will switch to long haulers. Then on a new variation of the HIV story again. It's what I call a Merry Go Round fraud. Always a failure, always followed by a new shiny thing. Round and round.
The company pays more than 10 promotion firms to promote its story in various medias and social networks. This is highly unusual. In fact the companies of this size (20 employees) that spend so much on promotion are mostly pump & dump frauds. No wonder the stock went up. Promotion balloon soon followed by a pop.
The ONLY area where the company executes perfectly, and in fact better than perfectly, because they meet the target BEFORE informing shareholders, is insiders selling their own shares. CEO dumped >88% of his shares right BEFORE huge expected announcements. CFO dumped >87% of his shares right BEFORE huge expected announcements. I am not even talking about wives and stock/warrant sales to private investors at outrageously-discounted prices.
Leronlimab is saline and Cytodyn is a scam. It's purpose is to defraud investors.
Nope the NEWS2 endpoint definition was modified. That change kills the only endpoint that was standing. Very few investors catched it (and I didnt either my points were different at first).
And the rest is wrong too...that is old stuff - CD10 trial has gone nowhere as everybody knows now. No regulator got interested by these details. We could exchange and argue there, but the mass has been told already by the FDA, the MHRA & co and the trial buried.
I was more interested by CD12 which is also going straight to the graveyard now.
My next (fourth) bet once this one is closed will be longhaulers.
Yes. It’s a fraud.
Questions won't save the CYDY stock from the total failure that Cytodyn and Leronlimab are. It's game over and the stock price is pretty generous today in fact. Soon this price will be regretted.
Yes they do. It's just statistics. I happen to be a statistician and sorry, patients survival is very rarely black and white. In this case, all published numbers indicate Leronlimab is not effective and eIND "papers" (if we can call these papers, given the low scientific standards they follow) just handpicking and datamining.
Or not.
Cytodyn is a scam. Leronlimab acts like saline.
I have studied "science" longer than M. Patterson...Cytodyn is a fraud and Leronlimab is saline
I predicted based on DATA and SCIENCE that it would be a BLOODBATH
And it is just the beginning. Residual value for the stock, due to its toxic loans and near-bankrupt financial situation, is $0
Toxic lender now has millions of cheap shares to sell. Same for former chairman. Enjoy.
Nope. Lots of discussions for CD10 (the previous COVID trial). Which was a failure. It's over.
AH AH AH DOWN WE GO
Told you so. Everything was analyzed and estimated in countless posts
Cytodyn is a fraud
Leronlimab acts like saline
Stock price will ultimately converge toward these sad estimates once facts start leaking through and rationality settles in
It's a bloodbath
Day after day
Destination is $0.25
And then bankruptcy or infinite dilution
It’s always fun to watch CYDY go down based on broken promises, false hopes and concealed bad news by their management and their stock promotion firms.
It follows all the patterns of pump&dump frauds, and this is how they all end: down, down and down. Until bankruptcy or a huge dilution.
15 cents down a day keeps the company pump away
Here is the truth about Cytodyn's OLE myth
https://buyersstrike.wpcomstaging.com/2021/02/18/while-we-wait-what-happened-to-the-ole-cydy/
Leronlimab just doesn't work.
The price action starts to reflect the truth about Cytodyn's CD12 trial...Leronlimab is as effective as saline
No, Cytodyn publicly said the trial was completed. So no doubt around that. They also publicly said they had submitted topline data to the FDA. So no doubt there either. The reality is very specific and pretty shady: they DID NOT disclose the endpoint real data to their shareholders.
Cytodyn has never published the COVID CD10 trial endpoints data. After more than 6 months. Correct? I found only a couple of (grossly insufficient) ratios in some slides, and that’s all. What it means is so obvious: a complete disaster for Leronlimab + the company is actively hiding material information from its shareholders
Nope it was not proven in any of these papers that Leronlimab has reduced mortality. These researchers would agree with my point in any lawsuit involving them (which will happen, I believe, as Cytodyn follows all the patterns of a stock market fraud).
Because: no double blind comparison to untreated patients. Handpicked treated patients. Microscopic sample size (so we are just measuring noise). And in some papers, no mortality measurement after 15 days (as if by magic).
A classical case of statistical bias, statistical noise and censoring, the 3 traps when analyzing statistical data. It’s very easy for companies, labs and researchers to counterfeit hundreds of such studies, even unconsciously. It’s exactly the difference between a medical opinion (which sometimes is correct, and sometimes wrong) and a statistical proof. The papers show some incomplete, very limited statistics, and the researchers opinion, and nothing else. That’s why all state regulators enforce the double/quadruple blind study rigor. And thats why Cytodyn is magically silent now...their quadruple blind study is, I believe, proving my point above, with Leronlimab as effective as placebo. Because, there, a proper comparison with untreated patients (or, rather, Standard Of Care patients). No handpicked treated patients. And not a microscopic sample.
From what I have seen and read the FDA has taken the logical decision regarding Leronlimab at every step based on what data was disclosed at that time.
It is Cytodyn who is slowing down filings, submitting demands with mock data, declining to submit to the regulator, etc...
Professionals on one side, stock market frauders on the other.
The trick in Dr Patterson study is the following: the non-Leronlimab patients ALSO have their CRP going down after 2 weeks. So Leronlimab acts like saline. No difference.
The pending CD12 study demonstrates this, I believe, and thats why Nader Pourhassan the CEO is silent. He is waiting to announce something big for long haulers/NASH (eg trial filled) before disclosing the COVID bad news, to continue the Merry Go Round fraud...always a new shiny thing to hide past failures...
CRP has the best AUC (Area Under the Curve) of all single predictors of risk. Even better than age or comorbidities. Age comes second. I already posted the link to the research paper that demonstrated this.
The reason Cytodyn’s trial excludes high-risk patient is not related to CRP but to CD12’s inclusion criteria number 3. I already posted about that. My point about CRP was to prove that Toci’s study excluded low-risk patients. Hence why you see non ventilated patients yet a high mortality. Because CRP is good at finding the ones truely at risk.
Correlations between positive risk predictors is entirely normal in supervised learning. It’s pretty usual. Yet, CRP remains the purest “signal” of all.
Last, we would all know by now if Leronlimab had helped reduce mortality. And this Leronlimab failure is statistically fully consistent with all the research papers I refered to in the past.
Yep I am pretty sure. The paper I posted clearly shows a big mortality jump when CRP goes from 50 to 100.
Several papers have also shown CRP is the BEST SINGLE VARIABLE to assess the severity of COVID for a patient. Better than age, comorbidities or any other predictor.
Filtering on CRP>75 as the Toci study did rejected low-risk patients as the statistics demonstrate.
That, plus the fact that Cytodyn rejected high-risk patients (inclusion criteria n°3 in Cytodyn's study) explains why Cytodyn's study is selecting on average much lower risk patients than the Toci's study. So mortality will be below Toci's study, by a 3% + 3% = 6% gap as I estimated in my posts based on available research papers. Said otherwise, Cytodyn's trial shall failed as this will bring back Cytodyn's placebo arm mortality too close to thee Leronlimab arm mortality for any statistical significance to be reached.
Yep. The FDA refused the eIND for mild/moderate patients AFTER the disclosure of trial results (it had given them BEFORE). As for the pending severe/critical patients, same situation. Logically the FDA will remove the eINDs AFTER disclosure. Again, non disclosure of the data is key to understand Cytodyn’s real situation and incentives. It drives everything. And not in the right direction.
So why dont we have hundreds of hedge fund arbitraging away that “sure thing” signal? Stock shall not be stuck below $10 like it is today.
Well...the only explanation is that this “signal” doesn't work.
Again the FDA has followed common sense guidelines given the pandemic, the drug safety and the trial data not yet disclosed by Cytodyn. If that were a “signal” it would be too easy (zero analysis or data needed), hundreds of hedge funds would be arbitraging it already. They do not. So...that means it is not a “signal” and the FDA is just doing its job by lack of better data.
And thankfully so! Because when they will be published the Cytodyn stock shall go right back to $1, it will be too late for me to short it and profit from this analysis.
With the previous CD10 COVID trial, it went down to $1.7. But the company financial situation was much (much) better than today.
It’s the secret in financial markets: to make a good return on my capital I need to leverage public data to go long or short great opportunities before the market catches up.
For various reasons, including the complexity of the topic and the heavy use of promotion firms (>12 of them across many medias and websites!) Cytodyn has managed to delay the reckoning. Not for long.
Yep i “know” them
How?
Here is the trick:
I took every possible value. And every combination of every possible value.
That’s millions of scenarios.
E.g. for the 394 patients, we know 260 are in the Leronlimab arm and 130 in the Placebo arm so 4 would be “unknown”. Well we know something about them in fact: they are in one arm or the other. So we can simulate all possible cases (4 in Leron, 3 Leron+1 Placebo, 2+2, 1+3, 0+4)
Same for placebo mortality. Same for the hypothesized Leronlimab effect. Same for every possible value that is not disclosed yet but whose properties are known or whose values are range-bound.
We can then estimate the probability of each of these millions of scenarios and whether each could reach statistical significance or not.
I did all that and ended up with a <1% probability that Leronlimab reaches statistical significance.
An excellent bet: shorting a stock at $6 and collect $5 with >99% probability versus losing $20 with <1% probability
It’s over for Cytodyn, they most (most) probably have failed.
Yep we agree. The FDA has just left the data accumulate blindingly, until the unblinding. The FDA is just doing its job in this pandemic, which is to not close any door until the company discloses the data. That’s why I don’t believe in any other theory than following the processes regarding how the FDA evaluates Leronlimab: it just follows its procedures and acts based on the information that has been disclosed at every point in time. Which sometimes is pretty limited. It’s really the company, Cytodyn, that shall accelerate. Nader is silent and, knowing how he craves for public attention, that is not good for the trial.
Only because the trial results are not disclosed yet. Also, some of these FDA authorizations have automatically expired upon unblinding.
Nader did not follow the "material event" logic you have described. For CD10. Exactly 6 months ago. He has NOT filed an 8-K at that time, which is the required SEC filing when an event is deemed material (press releases and conference calls are not acceptable substitutes legally, a filing has to be submitted in ALL cases). So...he obviously did not evaluate this information as being a "material event". Was this evaluation correct or incorrect, I have my opinion (incorrect for me given the importance to investors) but this doesn't matter: if he did that once for CD10, he could very well do that a second time for the pending CD12 trial.
Nope. The Toci trial selected only patients with CRP>75. CRP, as the recent research litterature shows, is currently the BEST predictor of mortality. Better than age, comorbidities or any other criteria. CRP>75 is pretty common outside of COVID. But it seems to be THE criteria to pick high-risk COVID patients. I already postd about that. CRP>75 patients have roughly an equivalent mortality to Criticals+3%. We know separately that due to its inclusion criteria n°3, Cytodyn's criticals have an equivalent mortality to general (not filtered by inclusion criteria n°3) Criticals -3%. So a 6% gap between both trials. All the studies are consistent and point toward the same conclusion: Cytodyn's placebo arm mortality shall be way too close to its Leronlimab arm mortality, making the trial a complete failure.
Because the FDA has currently no incentive to stop the trial earlier. Leronlimab is as safe as saline. So no emergency situation with patients in danger.
Nope. All studies that match the severe/critical population have a mortality in the 15-25% range.
Studies above 25% all have a higher selection criteria than what Cytodyn requires (e.g., critical-only patients, ICU-only, CRP>75, comorbidities-only, etc...) OR don't reject high-risk patients that Cytodyn rejects (inclusion criteria n°3 in Cytodyn's trial specifications). They are all consistent.
Yep the combined mortality disclosed by Cytodyn in early January is a fact and is not good compared to the benchmarks I had from >100 research papers reviewed over the past 6 months. All details in my posts on Twitter. The company is just delaying the bad news, as it did with CD10.
Regarding CD10, this was the same story all over. We all know how it went: a complete failure. It was as for CD12 perfectly predictable (and I was not the only one there) thanks to trial disclosed statistics (in CD10's case, the number of patients and mortality statistics from equivalent research papers at that time). Neither the FDA nor any other national regulator, anywhere in the world, has been interested in a drug that failed the CD10 primary endpoint and 17 out of 18 secondary endpoints. Despite the largest pandemic ever in modern time. That also tells me something.
FDA opinion is precisely what has not been disclosed here.
CD10 was a failure.
CD12 interim told us the DSMC had a doubt and wanted a 75% interim to reevaluate the situation, which got rejected by management.
Writing is on the wall.
6AM EST yet zero PR from CYDY. Nader Pourhassan the CEO would be everywhere pumping up the stock if he had had any good mortality result. Everybody knows him, he has been dreaming for 15 years about that and is known as a super-pumper. He was even accused of that in a lawsuit. If today he isn't pumping up "preliminary" results, it's because he can't. Mortality data is not good for Leronlimab (as every study we have analyzed has predicted) and he is delaying to offer more time for this team to datamine the rest of the data and endpoints desperately. Writing is on the wall.
Here is why Leronlimab doesn’t work against COVID:
SARS-CoV-2 causes a different cytokine response compared to other cytokine storm-causing respiratory viruses in severely ill patients
“IL-15 and CCL5 (RANTES) are not elevated after SARS-CoV2”
Since Leronlimab targets CCL5/RANTES-CCR5 pathway, no surprise if it doesn’t work on COVID and is ignored by authorities.
That is one of the reasons anecdotal studies with a couple patients, no placebo arm, no comparison over time between non-treated and treated patients, like the Cytodyn anecdotal studies published since May favor erroneous conclusions: they suggest relationships and facts that are never properly tested. Logical fallacies.
This paper explains why the CD10 trial has failed after a 6 months silence from the company, and why the company is now silent about the CD12 trial. They have failed again. And I think they know it by now and are actively hiding this material piece of information from market long investors and short sellers.