Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[kgromax]

Yep i “know” them

How?

Here is the trick:
I took every possible value. And every combination of every possible value.
That’s millions of scenarios.
E.g. for the 394 patients, we know 260 are in the Leronlimab arm and 130 in the Placebo arm so 4 would be “unknown”. Well we know something about them in fact: they are in one arm or the other. So we can simulate all possible cases (4 in Leron, 3 Leron+1 Placebo, 2+2, 1+3, 0+4)
Same for placebo mortality. Same for the hypothesized Leronlimab effect. Same for every possible value that is not disclosed yet but whose properties are known or whose values are range-bound.
We can then estimate the probability of each of these millions of scenarios and whether each could reach statistical significance or not.
I did all that and ended up with a <1% probability that Leronlimab reaches statistical significance.
An excellent bet: shorting a stock at $6 and collect $5 with >99% probability versus losing $20 with <1% probability

It’s over for Cytodyn, they most (most) probably have failed.