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The price should start to go up.......
Need tax write-off and sold my position.
Weather next 2 weeks........
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/12/market-watch-colder-weather-boosts-natural-gas-prices.html
Price:
"The January natural gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased 7.2¢ on Dec. 12 to settle at a rounded $4.41/MMbtu. On the US spot market, the gas price at Henry Hub, La., was a rounded $4.40/MMbtu, jumping 17.3¢."
Will CAPP becomes competitive again soon??Yes,once NAT GAS is kept above $4.50 bench mark,according to ACI(or BTU) in the conference call.
NATURAL GAS Jan 2014.....
$4.377!
Forecast:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/v75gzV_PDBDA.mp3
Coal in a nutshell since 2009.........
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djuscl&insttype=&freq=2&show=True&time=12
NATURAL GAS Jan 2014......
At $4.34,day before the BIG REPORT!
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_NG.F14.E&v=d1&t=c&a=5&w=1
Are we drunk on natural gas......
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/drunk-natural-gas-193900748.html
Will it break out.......
Above $5.00 tomorrow? Pleeeazzzzzzzze Santa.
Christmas present BET to myself:I own OTM Dec 2013 $4.50 and $5.00 calls CHEAP,wish me luck!
Leer mine is up......
6:02 pm Arch Coal announces it has begun operating its longwall mining system (ACI): Co announced that Tygart Valley's Leer mine in northern West Virginia has begun operating its longwall mining system,representing a major milestone in the development of the overall mining complex. The Leer mine is expected to ramp up production during the first quarter of 2014, and to produce more than 3million tons of coal on an annualized basis thereafter. The majority of the output will be sold into domestic and international metallurgical coal markets for use in the production of steel.
Positive impact QUANTIFIED:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1372461-arch-coal-the-leer-mine-may-generate-over-225-million-in-ebitda
Natural Gas Jan 14(NGF14.NYM) ........
Was $4.19!
Is US natural gas(supply) been stretched by our.....
Easy way to get votes:Era of renewable energy replacing the fossil fuels:first,ethanol;then solar;.......never fossil fuel.But natural gas is fossil fuel!!
Now comes this guy
http://www.mining.com/web/bill-powers-give-up-the-shale-gas-fantasy-and-profit-when-the-bubble-bursts/
Interplay between the duos.....
"Coal is now making a sneak return," said Fesharaki from Facts Global Energy.
"Sellers of LNG believe the buyers have no choice. But they do, it is coal."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101255802
PS-Valuation of US coal,based on US demand vs. world coal demand,TOO LOW? By an order of magnitude,I believe within 5 years US cleaner coal price will normalize to gas price of around $10.00! That is PRB coal way above above $25.00 per ton!!
Ripple effect being seen in shipping rate........
Real or false start?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-04/ship-rates-rally-seen-in-chinese-drive-for-cleaner-coal-freight.html
PS-How come no one talks about post-Panamax for 2015?
Will China follows our footstep using cleaner coal......
""While I am all too well aware of the severe air quality challenges that China now faces, I see these challenges as ones where the United States can truly speak from experience(1970??) in support of China's efforts to reduce air pollution," she(Gina McCarthy) said."
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/12/air-pollution-stifles-china-but-might-clear-the-way-for-clean-air-reforms.html
PS-Does that mean upper tier thermal coal from Australia and US(PRB) becomes the world's KING COAL??
PS1-PRB:Power River Basin,with low sulfur/ash content.
More on Black Thunder Complex........
http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/thunder/
Digging a bit deeper........
That is......
Easy money!! 75% chance ACI topping $5.00 pps before the end of year.
Natural Gas Jan 14 (NGF14.NYM).......
At $4.08!
Time to grab ATM/OTM option cheap.......
Specially after the news of a tender offering
My favorite calls:
Jan 2014 $4.00
Apr 2014 $4.00
Apr 2014 $4.50
A dog with flea and ready to be put out of its misery........
Natural gas priced higher,cost cutting working,liquidity increasing,supply and demand curve normalized,...........I believe this dog(ACI) might just make it thru next decade,as the coal market rationalized! And a likely in the money investment for the newbies!! Picked up few shares and doing the OTM cover calls.....bull puts spread next.
PS-There seems be too many marbles,even for the Wall Streeters,to get a handle on ACI where it headed,besides death!!
A senior manager has become a franchisee.....
A great sigh:buying stores at 5-6x EBDITA,5-10% of Chipotle(per store price,MC-based),IN THE $$$$$$$$$$$$$ investment.......buying WEN 2015 Jan $10.0 would be a good choice.
PS-Visited Wendy's on Vermont Ave in Hollywood and around dinner time,this store is a bit old and in an tough neighborhood,but the traffic is good with 35%+ people under 30.
PS2-The new COO was developer of Wendy's international operation,a lynch pin needed NOW to REVAMP the program quickly,with a new OLD FART working with oversea OLD FARTS!I smell $$$$$$$$$$ as YUM's and MD store formats becomes places of OLD FARTS........world is Wendy's oyster!!
Two opposing forces....
A downer:
Cosi management is incompetent consistantly,self-serving without accountability has been the norm,and losses has become unsustainable3-4Q cash left at best.
VS.
MC is going through the roof:
Fast-casual restaurants are where the action is
The noodle company($2 million per store based on MC)
Panera($3 million)
Chipotle($10 million)
and
Cosi($250k per store)
I smell blood and $$$$$$$$$$$$!
Why this one will be BIG.......
It has Pelts' signature on it....DRIVEN BY EGOS!!Differences between him and Bill Ackman:Peltz(20 year senior) was not blinded by his own super ego and knew his limitation(bottom lines does not lie and get out of the way)....but both are super egomaniac!
PS-A small humanity can be a $2-$5 billion dollars difference in profit(vs loss)for Peltz over Ackman within 10 years!
PS2-Or WEN has the best of a Wall Streeter and a Main Streeter working together without too much egos!
Peltz's hired gun for the week.......
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000215894
Viennoiserie....that was a mouthful.....
Brioche bun:
http://www.restaurantnews.com/wendys-mouthwatering-bacon-portabella-melt-now-served-on-brioche-bun/
PS-Is Wendy's gone French without being a snub?
blank page
Emil(has been there only 3 years) on Cramer's Mad Money........
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101180445
My favorite:
"hard work of activist investor Nelson Peltz..." I think Cramer is trying to kiss his laurel.
Agreed..........
And the sun still comes up today smiling,except my wallet becomes a bit smaller(may be 2 bits smaller),and she still wants more $$$ or else!
Pre-market WEN down........
Adjusted eps is $0.08,from estimate of $0.06,with revenue of $640 million,$4 million short of expectation(according to one source).
From AP:
"Revenue edged up nearly 1 percent to $640.8 million.
Analysts expected a profit of 6 cents per share on revenue of $640.2 million."
This may be crazy to micro-second investors........
I'm holding on(option) until Jan 2015.
A bit more on a recent weekly check:
3 stores(Wendy's) had more cars than Jack in the Box(JB)
2 stores had same cars as JB.
vs
Most of the 5 stores above had less cars than JB only 3 months ago.
All of the 5 stores above had only 50% or less of car count of JB only 1 year ago.
WEN $9.22....
With over 4 million shares traded the 1st hour,two days before the next ER!
Just another ploy.......
This guy is a Gypsy!
Can't fight off my urge/stupidity/emotion/.......
Bought some Nov 2013 $10.00 strike calls for 10C on Friday(got it at 8C)......
Achilles heel.......
The true fraud:
Siphoning of money to Gene's private ventures,UNDER FALSE FLAG OF royalty payments,EXPLICIT TO PATENT AS STATED SINCE 2001/2002 FILINGS,IS A LIE!.The false claim would haunt him and his FAMILY wealth for years to come....."live by the sword and die by the sword!"
PS-Because of GENE'S BREACH OF BUSINESS CONDUCT,Barry is gagged or bribed depending how you see it;HE WOULD NEVER RESPOND TO YOU INVESTORS.PERIOD.
Another well done video.........
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/working-wendy-lot-213044447.html
Your are right.....
Only if the world were perfect,one dimensional,and everybody followed the rules.
PS-Are you assume ex-CFO still has the stocks?And there is still hope,however small,...........but your wallet says:Boss,you need to get out.
Hint: E-mail/complaint to FINRA......
Weakest link
Alan Winduss, ex-Chief Financial Officer
For
Insider selling,2009 to before he left the company;or selling with insider information as a private investor
,after he bailed out.
PS-Management try to run out the clock and staying silent,and is why Gene is pretending to be out and controlling the company behind his son? Do I need to guess:he has become so predicable,it is no challenge any more.
Wendy's Casually on the Fast Track to Growth.....
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/10/28/wendys-casually-on-the-fast-track-to-growth.aspx
Bottom line:
"It(Technomic) anticipates fast-casual sales to grow at a 10% compounded annual rate through 2017, compared to just 4.5% for the entire limited-services segment."
The Secret Of Wendy's Social Media Success: Massive Stupidity...
http://www.forbes.com/sites/caroltice/2013/10/28/wendys-social-media-success-secretmassive-stupidity/?partner=yahootix
My favorite:
"Wendy’s employs another little-used tool for Facebook success: super-responsiveness. Every comment — even complaints about customer service at restaurants — is pleasantly and promptly answered. And not hidden from view, as some chains do with smacktalk on their Facebook forums."
This could change everything......
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151723093024489&set=vb.113385204488&type=3&permPage=1
The ad: A cut above!