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You may be spot-on with your assumptions. Here is a couple of snippits from an e-mail I got from somebody at JBI a couple of weeks ago. It reinforces what most shareholders are hoping, which is that JBI has simply changed tack from aggressive and vocal, to cautious and secretive, but are still very much moving forward with P2O.
"An analogy I would like to use for our position right now is that: slow is fast, and fast is slow. We are at a stage where we have to take things slow, to make sure that all of our bases are covered before we start to penetrate the global market with this technology. If we were to expedite everything and rush these machines to the market without thinking about the consequences, it could end up being a very slow process (operational, regulatory, financial risks) or worst, a disaster, and would deteriorate JBI's shareholder value significantly."
"...we must establish an infrastructure that will create long-term value..."
Clearly it's frustrating to see the share price suffer as a result of the "slow is fast" approach, but if you're long on JBII it doesn't matter, and it's clearly the only way to proceed.
Let's hope a near-future filing will shed some light on the progress!
Tykün
taken from the article ...
"The FDIC General Counsel determined that interviewing other officials, including the Chairman, was not necessary to adequately respond to the needs of the special examiner and would set a dangerous precedent."
Then you must either believe:
1. That Bradshaw (VP), Wesson (BoD), Smith (COO), and Bagai (BoD) are either completely oblivious to the hoax JB is running, or
2. they are all in on it.
Can you tell us which you believe is the case?
Look closer.
Yes, Scheer is clearly very frustrated with the share price. Who can blame him -- this company is seriously undervalued if they will achieve the things they've publicly announced: Q4 cash-flow positive, $8-10m revenue for 2010, and Seymour running at capacity by end 2012.
But rather than issue PRs, he should just focus on profitability, and then the share price should see a nice correction.
I keep buying at these prices, as I believe 2011 will bring good things.
Tyk
Good post fourkids.
I concur, heartily.
Tykün
A new article about Enviromission in Fast Company: http://www.fastcompany.com/1699562/enviromissions-solar-tower-would-be-the-tallest-man-made-structure
Key paragraph taken from it:
"Despite the agreement from SCPPA, the EnviroMission tower remains in something of a limbo state. The details of the Power Purchasing Agreement are confidential, but it's likely that the utility has only committed to buying a certain amount of energy at a particular kilowatt-hour price--and if EnviroMission doesn't meet it, then the utility wouldn't have to buy. Still, asserts Davey in a press release, the agreement "is an important milestone that will allow finance to be secured." It's working on front-end engineering and design now."
My bid got passed over.. new one not showing on L2 at all.
Hmmm.....
I agree about the R/S trends.. all that I have experienced have dropped post-split.
What about the 350million + new shares that will be issued for the acquisition? If this happens post-split, then existing share dilution is 20x worse. Could be like a big reset button to wipe out all existing shareholders.
After that it may be worth hanging around to see what the new co is up to.. could still be a ground-floor opp.
I got most out at .165 (up from .0079, a tidy 20-bagger). My first shell play! Fun!
Tykün
You're right squirrel, I was comparing the "cost to build" a P2O processor with the "price to buy" a shredder, since I don't know the "price to buy" a JBI processor nor the "cost to build" a high-end shredder.
But still.. the interesting number is the "cost to build", not the final price to the JVs or whomever buys them. It's easily an order-of-magnitude less that competing systems with comparable throughput.
Of course, without a permit to operate them, and JVs to set them up all over the country/world, it's all irrelevant. Tick, tock... feels like an eternity...
But you have to admit that it's pretty amazing that the main P2O processor comprised of a feeder, pyrolysis chamber, catalyst column, condensers, diesel/fuel separator, and gas compression system all costs less than a high-end plastic shredder!
Wow, almost no trades yet today. Are we expecting news/filings soon?
$3.12 is a STEAL for this company's shares... and I just stole some more too!
Yeah, this company is completely under the radar today -- they have done virtually no PR in the US, but I don't blame them as until yesterday they didn't really have anything more than prospects. They aren't a typical OTC company .. they don't hope to flaunt their technology to drive up the stock price.
However with the PPA approved in SoCal, and the next steps that will certainly attract attention (building plans), I expect that they will try to promote themselves in the media a fair bit in the coming months. That, together with concrete announcements about their business model could spark a lot of interest in the stock.
This is ground floor pricing IMO... but they still have a lot to prove with their revenue model, so I think it may be as much as a year or more before this stock does any sort of interesting volume and the ADRs climb above $2-3.
Still, if you believe in the technology, and the ability for the current management team to promote it and execute the business plan, then I think it's a great long-term investment (with zero liquidity in the short term).
Tyk
Thought about this investment:
Firstly, unlike many OTC stocks I consider EVOMY to be a buy & hold (long) kinda stock.
The company has the exclusive world-wide rights to the Solar Tower/Chimney technology (except China), which is a huge asset if this technology is adopted on even a modest scale. A single 200MW tower is expected to run 365 days/year at produce at least 100MW on average. That equals 876 million kWh in a year. If the feed-in rate they get is $0.12/kWh (source: http://www.scppa.org/Downloads/RFP/RenewableEnergyProjects013111final.pdf ), then that's $105m of power revenue per year per tower.
What is not clear (to me) is whether EVM plans to own & operate these towers at all, or merely license the technology to third parties. I believe, at least for the SCPPA deal and with the 2 AZ towers, that they intend to at least partially own them.
The funding needed to construct a 200MW tower could be as much as $1b according to some sources (http://www.livescience.com/technology/080702-pf-solar-tower.html), but I believe it has come down in the past years. The operational costs are very very low -- only moving parts are the turbines which are at ground level.
What's clear is that with 370m shares issued, the company is valued (today) at $24m, which leaves a LOT of upside if they are able to successfully commercialize or license this technology!
If I get more information about the financial model & EVMs specific business model w/r to commercialization, I'll post here.
Ty
SCPPA approves Power Purchase Agreement with Enviromission!
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101026/pdf/31td5p3h19w450.pdf
Excerpts:
SCPPA: "SCPPA is excited to support a large scale solar technology that when successfully deployed could change the renewable energy landscape. The pricing and load profile of the Solar Tower coupled with its zero water power production cycle makes it a compelling alternative."
Enviromission: "finalization of this PPA with the SCPPA is an important milestone that will allow finance to be secured and Front End Engineering and design (FEED) that is required to break ground at the site earmarked in Arizona to commence."
So that's indeed great news! After a long struggle, Enviromission appears to finally be firmly upon the commercialization path.
Next up: find out timelines and revenue model. If I recall correctly, from breaking ground to operational for a single tower can be 2 years.
EVM halted on the ASX pending the PR of the SCPPA meeting last week.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101025/pdf/31tbtfd9s4nsd1.pdf
But not before the pre-market ASK moved to A$0.08 (~$1.60 for EVOMY @ USOTC).
CERP mentioned in Wall Street Journal article on bioplastics:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703989304575504141785646492.html
Kim Forte (PR) told me they will receive the answer at 7:30am US Eastern time today (i.e. already passed), so I would expect it to be release shortly.
Unless of course it's bad news, in that case I could imagine them wanting to craft a way to break the news to shareholders gently.
If it passes, and they start to build 2 towers in Arizona, I expect it will trigger many more deals/sites within the US and abroad in the coming years.
Unclear to me how EVM earns their money though: license fees only, rev-share, as operators, or all of the above.
Tyk
No news yet, but they said they'd announce something about their progress there before the end of the year. Let's hope it coincides with a PR about being cash-flow positive, and then we're off to the races.
This company is terribly undervalued -- trading at a forward P/E of under 3. 2011 could bring a 500% gain from today's price IMO.
Ty
FYI, anyone contemplating getting into this stock, if you have easy access to foreign exchanges I'd recommend you trade it on the ASX (symbol EVM). Liquidity is much better there (for now anyway).
It's also unofficially traded in Germany as E8B, but also with very very low volumes.
If the decision from the SCPPA is positive, then I expect this company will generate a lot of interest, as it represents a "new" type of solar energy. I'd expect to see the concept (well, it would no longer be just a concept anymore if they get a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) in California) covered in major media and popping-up on green-tech websites around the world.
It would be a WORLD'S FIRST for the solar tower/chimney design.
Tykün
SCPPA decision meeting has happened -- EVM themselves will be notified of the outcome sometime during the US day today, so I expect a PR before the weekend (if it's positive).
EVM was up 66% at A$0.065 with very heavy volume last night on the Australian exchange, so we should expect the ADRs traded in the US to follow suit and trend toward $1.20 - $1.30 at the open today.
Live 6-month chart (live = this post/chart will look different tomorrow, which could be fun):
Suit yourself. Sorry I replied - won't happen again.
That is a non-issue. They aren't selling lemon juice. The fuel blending site will allow JBI to mix in the necessary/typical additives to make their fuels pump grade. Technically there will be no difference from the fuel you buy from a gas station that came from a barrel of crude that was pumped from the ground in Saudi Arabia, shipped to Sarnia for refining, and then trucked to Niagara for selling. Same hydro-carbon chains but with a lower CO2 footprint to make it.
Hey, I can eat humble pie. What can I say.. I thought they'd be farther along than they are. Was I wrong? Bigtime.
But where it counts is whether or not it happens at all in the end. And I still believe it will.
Tyk
P.S. My foolish statements from ages ago are not nearly as foolish as yours will soon appear.
You're not alone stocker.. there are many here who, despite the drama and delays, have a great deal of faith in the company.
I have been averaging down lately too, and I'd already considered myself "all in" when the stock was trading above $4.
These shares are a gift.
Tyk
What is it that some skeptics like to say again? Oh yeah... GAME OVER
Good luck to all longs -- your patience will be rewarded.
Tyk
PP, you've been posting here for months against JBI, and you evidently still haven't watched the video from the AGM (wherein the asbestos gloves issue is discussed).
I suggest all those who post here do a minimum of DD, starting with the annual shareholder's meeting video.
"Faith and patience" is what you'd have if you'd attended the AGM and met John, Jacob, Amy, John W, and the other people working behind the scenes to make P2O a commercial reality.
Tykün
The point is moot -- it's not fake diesel or colo(u)red water coming out of the tap. It's hot, yes.. but clearly not too hot to hold in a jar without gloves.
That's all that counts.
On second thought.. even that doesn't count. Proof that they can produce it for $10/barrel and sell it for at least crude prices, and don't have to pay (or much) for their plastic is what counts.
I'm counting on it. And I'm counting on John B and his team to make it happen. And happen it will, soon enough IMO.
Or on second thought, not soon enough
Likely he meant 100C, the boiling point of water. Duh. Those crazy Canadians deal in metric.
Although logic would tell us that it's a little below the boiling point of diesel, thus ~ 150C.
Also, for the uninformed, 20 "tons" = 20 metric tons = 20,000 kilograms = 44,092 pounds.
A new competitor from MIT? Not really.
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/itw-portable-desalination-1015.html
$8000 for a system that will produce 3800 litres.
SwissINSO's Krystall(TM) will product 100,000 litres per day (26x more). But I do not know the cost of a Krystall unit. To be cost competitive with the new MIT system it must sell for under $200k.
Then again, Krystall(TM) units are rolling off the production line, and the MIT prototype is just that.. a prototype.
Still, more buzz about this kind of tech is alwasy good!
Tykün
Information on the science & technology @ wikipedia here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_updraft_tower
("solar tower" is the term Enviromission uses, but it's ambiguous with a more common solar-based energy source: concentrated solar, which uses towers too).
N.B. I personally (and others too) disagree with the math in the "Financial feasibility" section of the wiki page, but I'm not a wikipedia kinda guy. There are other sources that show Solar Towers to be the most cost effective renewable technology available today, even with the gains in efficiency that solar PV has made in the past years.
Worth noting that the worlds largest operational solar energy installation (?) is in Spain (Andasol), and is HEAVILY subsidized by the Spanish government to the tune of something like 25 cents/kWh, which is ridiculous.
Tyk
FYI, the "5 minutes for a ton" remark stems from a comment John Bordynuik made about the speed of the process at the AGM.
I heard the statement first-hand (well, another incarnation of it), however it was not a statement that said one ton is processed in 5 minutes, but that (paraphrasing) one ton of plastic is loaded into the reactor, and within 5 minutes of the catalyst being added, the condensers started saturating with diesel. It is not entirely clear how long 1 ton takes to complete, but the "20 tons is 2 hours" is a better number to take.
And while that does not mean that you can simply process 12x20 tons per day either, clearly the 20 tons/day number is not even close to the theoretical limit of the processor, but rather a very conservative estimate of the practical volumes expected to be processed.
If uptime can be judged by tons/day processed, I believe you could see a 300% uptime within a few months of ironing out the kinks
Tyk
For those of you new to Enviromission, it's listed on the OTCQX (premier OTC) exchange in the US, but has been traded in Australia since 2001. They are fully reporting, and only started doing business in the US a few years ago (and a subsequent public listing too).
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=EVM
The company has exclusive rights to develop the Solar Tower concept worldwide (? at least US, Australia anyway), which is a very simple concept the generated power by convection from a greenhouse effect under the transparent skirts of a very (very) tall tube. Cheap to build, cheaper to operate, and as cost effective ($/kWh) as the latest generation of nuclear plants (GE's A1000 for example).
The company website: http://www.enviromission.com.au
Details on their US aspirations in Arizona: http://www.enviromission.com.au/EVM/content/media_releases.html
Video animation of the concept: http://www.enviromission.com.au/irm/content/images/videos/SolarTower_Animation_Metric.wmv
Video of the "story" (from working small-scale prototype built in Spain to current US plans): http://www.enviromission.com.au/irm/content/images/videos/modernmarvels/index.html
Old video about the solar tower in Spain:
Some tidbits of e-mails received in the past from Kim Forte (PR @ Enviromission):
May 11, 2010:
I can say with a high degree of confidence that if there were impediments to the process or issues stalling negotiations it would need to be reported to the market in line with continuous disclosure rules it is therefore reasonable to surmise that negotiations are tracking well.
EnviroMission is as anxious for an outcome as individual investors - it may help to put the need for patience into perspective if you consider the potential of the financial prospects of EnviroMission in the event that details of power purchase negotiations are ratified.
Re your Q about discussions with US promoter - EVM is the US promoter. If you mean discussions with financiers and venture capital companies - I can confirm discussions are in progress.
SCPPA remains the key negotiation.
Decision time:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101019/pdf/31t6rb8ztcmyzf.pdf
In 2 days we will see if the SCPPA decides to purchase power from the two planned solar towers in Arizona. Folks, this company has been all about solar towers for well over a decade now, and this decision will make or break them IMO.
There don't appear to be any other tangible leads for commercialization of this unique technology, so it's do-or-die time.
The company has about 360 millions shares issued & outstanding I believe (including issued stock options). Remember that the ADRs traded in the US are worth 20 shares on the ASX, which closed around A$0.035 yesterday (so about $0.7 for the ADRs traded as EVOMY). That puts the ASX valuation at about A$12 million today. It should be multiples higher if the decision is positive on Thursday.
Very exciting. I have been following this company for years, and wondering if/when they would finally build a commercial-scale solar chimney. Well on Thursday we may finally have our answer. Leave it to the Californians to be the true innovators! They will profit where the Australian government blundered.
Tykün
audio cut for me too (skyping in from Europe)
It was my understanding that they were two different modifications, and from the video it appeared to be simply another condenser of the same type. But I cannot be sure. Maybe I will ask this on YouTube/Facebook...
Yes, this was discussed before, but I'm being sarcastic when I call it an "issue". The catalyst speeds the reaction to such an extent that the bottleneck on the entire process was the condensation phase -- a single condenser was not capable of handling the "natural rate" of the process. John mentioned, as far back at the AGM, that they would be adding another so that the process can run unimpeded.
Most P2O technologies (even those with catalysts) don't have even close to the throughput that JBI's has, so that's the "nice problem to have" (that they don't have anymore).
It's nice to see this simple addition, if for no other reason because it's a materialization of a development that was promised months ago.
The other addition mentioned during the July CC was the diesel/gasoline separator that IsleChem was to work on. I'm looking forward to seeing that soon too, although they stated that they would not hold-up being fully operational for it.
Tyk
2 condensers means the throughput issue is solved. And this is an "issue" that other P2O technologies only wished they had!!
Very nice.
Now how about some news???