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yub, just closed usd/chf at 1832 for a whopping +1 pip. Actually I was looking for 1850 or 1880 to fall but swissy was just too sticky. I see strong resistance here at 1820-1830, so next week dip buying could be a good strategy.
I was actually also considering buying usd/cad at 2290 at the same time, should have done that instead...
About holding over the weeking is only smart when you are deep in the profit and looking for immediate action on monday morning. Otherwise it's just risk without reward...
bought some usd/chf for 1831. Know the weekend is near, but want to get back to trading and posting. So s/l not far away...
Wyndham Sells 25 Non-Strategic Assets to a Partnership Comprised of a Private Investment Fund Managed by Goldman Sachs and Affiliates of Highgate Holdings
Business Wire - December 31, 2004 08:00
Transaction Concludes Company's Planned Asset Disposition Program; Company Retains Wyndham-Branded Assets Pursuant to New Franchise Agreements
DALLAS, Dec 31, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Wyndham International, Inc. (AMEX:WBR) announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell 25 non-strategic hotels to a partnership comprised of a private investment fund managed by Goldman Sachs and affiliates of Highgate Holdings (15 Wyndham-branded and 10 non-proprietary hotels). The purchase price of the transaction is $366 million. As part of the agreement, all 15 Wyndham-branded assets will remain in the brand's portfolio pursuant to new franchise agreements. The transaction is expected to close during the first quarter of 2005.
"The sale of these 25 hotels completes our planned disposition program, a key component of our strategic plan announced in June 1999," stated Fred J. Kleisner, chairman, president, and chief executive officer for Wyndham. "Wyndham's positioning as a branded hotel operating company solely focused on our core Wyndham brand has been realized."
The 25 properties included in the agreement: the Doubletree Tallahassee, Fla.; Doubletree Des Plaines, Ill.; Doubletree Minneapolis; Marriott Atlanta North Central; Hyatt Lexington (Ky.); Hilton Denver; Hilton Newark, N.J.; Hilton Cleveland; Holiday Inn Houston; Radisson Town & Country (Houston); Wyndham Arlington (Texas); Wyndham Andover (Ma.); Wyndham Westborough (Ma.); Wyndham City Center (Washington, D.C.); Wyndham Commerce (Ca.); Wyndham Dallas Market Center; Wyndham Grand Bay - Coconut Grove (Miami); Wyndham Harrisburg (Pa.); Wyndham Las Colinas (Irving, Texas); Wyndham Newark Airport; Wyndham Pittsburgh Airport; Wyndham Syracuse (NY); Wyndham Toledo (Ohio); Wyndham Westshore (Tampa, Fla.); and the Wyndham Indianapolis.
As of Dec. 31, 2004, this transaction will result in a $49 million non-cash impairment to the book values of certain assets to be sold. Upon the close of the transaction in 2005 a gain of approximately $34 million will be recorded on the remainder of the assets in the portfolio.
Over the last five years, Wyndham has sold approximately 180 non-strategic properties for gross proceeds of over $2.5 billion while growing its core Wyndham brand portfolio to over 150 hotels across the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, Mexico and the United Kingdom. The net proceeds from the asset sales have been used to reduce debt and overall Company leverage.
Kleisner added, "Now that our formal asset disposition program is complete, the reduction of our Company debt allows us to take advantage of the current capital market conditions and refinance our 2006 corporate debt maturities. The reduction of debt also allows us to invest in our remaining 33 owned assets through high return investment projects and access capital for brand growth in strategic markets."
Jonathan Falik of JF Capital Advisors, Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. advised Wyndham on the transaction.
Wyndham and Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners Form Joint Venture to Expand and Develop Summerfield Suites by Wyndham Brand
Business Wire - December 23, 2004 07:00
Wyndham Sells Six Properties and Partial Ownership of the Summerfield Suites by Wyndham Brand
DALLAS, Dec 23, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Wyndham International, Inc. (AMEX:WBR) and Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners (LBREP) have formed a joint venture to expand and develop Summerfield Suites by Wyndham, Wyndham's upscale, extended-stay brand. The transaction, which closed on Wednesday, Dec. 22, included the sale of six Summerfield Suites by Wyndham properties and the sale of a partnership interest in its Summerfield brand to Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners for approximately $105 million.
"Summerfield Suites by Wyndham is a proven brand, and its RevPAR consistently outperforms the entire extended-stay segment. We have long believed that the brand strength of Summerfield Suites could be realized to its full potential through a joint venture partnership, and expect this joint venture with Lehman will enable the brand to grow exponentially in the next decade," stated Fred J. Kleisner, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Wyndham International.
The joint venture, which will be equally controlled by both partners, will establish an independent, well-capitalized company focused exclusively on the Summerfield Suites by Wyndham brand. The new entity, which will be located in Dallas, will be actively engaged in property management, franchise sales and the development of new Summerfield Suites by Wyndham properties.
As part of the transaction, LBREP will seek opportunities to finance the development of additional Summerfield Suites by Wyndham properties. Raymond C. Mikulich, managing director of Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners stated, "Lehman Brothers is delighted to partner with Wyndham to expand the highly regarded Summerfield brand. We look forward to working with owners and developers to meaningfully expand the brand's distribution network."
LBREP will acquire the hotels and interest in the Summerfield Suites brand in partnership with the Gencom Group, a private, Miami-based hospitality investment firm.
Summerfield Suites by Wyndham offers upscale, all-suite accommodations complete with signature Wyndham amenities and services in a unique residential-style setting in urban and suburban markets. Currently, the brand consists of 23 properties located throughout the U.S. and one in the Cayman Islands.
The six Summerfield Suites by Wyndham hotels included in the transaction are located in Denver; Miami; Morristown, N.J.; Whippany, N.J.; Waltham, Mass.; and Seattle.
Lehman Brothers Real Estate Partners is a full-service real estate merchant banking fund. This global real estate private equity fund makes direct private equity investments in properties, real estate companies, and service businesses ancillary to the real estate industry in domestic and international markets. As of Nov. 30, 2004, the fund had committed more than $1.8 billion of equity across 66 investments.
Based in Dallas, Wyndham International, Inc. offers upscale and luxury hotel and resort accommodations through proprietary lodging brands and a management services division. Wyndham owns, leases, manages and franchises hotels and resorts in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Europe, and guarantees that the best rates for its properties will be found on its proprietary Web site. For more information or to make a reservation, visit www.wyndham.com or call 800-WYNDHAM. Wyndham is a founding member of the Global Hotel Alliance (www.globalhotelalliance.com), a worldwide union of hospitality companies that provides guests with unique, personalized guest services.
Susan,
Merry Christmas and some nice holiday days to you as well as the entire board. My posts will also thin out over the next weeks for vacation. While this is probably not my last post this year, I wish everybody a great New Year already...
s.
nice dollar rally today, I was positioning myself 1-2 days too early with my USD longs. Even got stoped out today again when those good GBP retail numbers hit. Costly that. Nevertheless, cut your losses, let your profits run enables me to make it back...
I do trade, however the market is very thin and that makes it difficult. You can tell, when the market comes to trigger your s/l and then reverses. I still think finding a direction is as always easy or not, but getting a good entry is a lot harder for sure.
Just broke $1. Nice.
14:05 US GOVTS: TIC Data Showed Slower Fgn Investment in Oct ($48.1B)] Boston,
Dec 15-- According to the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report foreigners
made a $48.1 bln net purchase of US securities in October, down from a revised
$59.9 bln in September (prev. $63.4 bln). There was a rise in foreign appetite
for Treasuries but it was well shy of its highs of earlier in the year. There
was a rebound in agency purchases as well as equities.
On average inflows are still sufficient enough overall to cover the current
account deficit but the market will keep a watchful eye as the USD remains weak.
At their October pace net investment is insufficient to support the USD.
Foreign net purchases of US Treasuries totaled $18.3 bln in October, up from
$15.8 bln in September. Purchases by foreign official institutions rose by more
than 50% to $14.8 bln from $9.8 bln in September. Other foreigners purchases
fell to $3.0 bln from $6.7 bln. Foreign official holdings totaled $1.125 trn in
October, up from $1.115 trn in September. The rise was a result of increased
investment in Treasury coupons. Overall foreigners hold a little less than 48%
of all marketable Treasury debt outstanding. Foreign central bank holdings of
notes and bonds account for about 33.5% of all notes and bonds outstanding.
It"s not hard to see why the market remains preoccupied with foreign
sponsorship.
In the 12 months ending in October, foreign investors made a $374.9 bln net
purchase of Treasuries, up from $368.4 bln in September. It was just the second
time that the 12-month purchase had risen in the past six months. Foreign
official accounts made a $207 bln net purchase of Treasuries over the year
ending in October. This year alone that purchase has totaled $176.7 bln
compared with a total net purchase of Treasuries of $109.3 bln in all of last
year. So far this year total marketable Treasuries outstanding increased by
$325.3 bln, and note and bonds have increased by only $175.7 bln. The degree of
sponsorship by foreign investors is one reason why rates have stayed low even as
the budget deficit has soared.
Of the major foreign holders of Treasuries, the composition changed. Japan
and trimmed their holdings for a second straight month while the UK increased
theirs by just over $6 bln. China"s holdings were little changed. Since
peaking in August Japan has decreased their holdings of Treasuries by $7 bln
through the end of October. The Japanese held $715.2 bln in Treasuries as of
October 31, down from $720.3 in September and $722.2 bln in August. Their
holdings equate to about 18% of total marketable Treasuries outstanding.
China"s stake was $174.6 bln in October, ups lightly from $174.3 bln in
September. The UK increased their holdings to $140.9 bln from $134.7 bln. This
looks to be a new high. Holdings of Treasuries by Caribbean Banking Centers-- a
fair proxy for hedge funds-- fell by just over $3 bln in October to $85.2 bln.
Foreigners made a $22.0 bln purchase of agency securities, the strongest
purchase since April. This occurred after the dust settled following the OFHEO"s
investigation of FNMA manipulating its earnings. Fed custody holdings suggest
that agency investment by foreign central banks has stayed strong.
In October there was a $19.1 bln purchase of corporate bonds, down sharply
from $43.9 bln in September. There was a $3.76 bln net purchase of US equities
following a $3 bln net sale in September. At the same time US investors sold a
net $12 bln in foreign stocks and a $3.2 bln in foreign bonds.
Complete details can be found on the Treasury"s website at:
http://www.treas.gov/tic/.
The report reinforces rhe importance of foreign investors to the US Treasury
market suggests that the twin deficits -- the budget deficit and the current
account-- will be of utmost important in the coming year. The current account
is approaching a record 5.5% of the GDP and if it continues to deteriorate
foreign inflows may slow. This would spell trouble for the US markets, as well
as the economy. --Jennifer.Rossum@thomson.com
[TIC YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY, mlns$]
------Foreign investment in-------------
Treasury Gov't U.S. U.S. TOTAL
Bonds & Agency Corp. Corp. NET FGN
Notes Bonds Bonds Stocks INVESTMENT
2004-01 48997 27377 12809 12828 91276
2004-02 36705 24247 21051 2488 84638
2004-03 60799 4004 30613 -13481 77598
2004-04 35673 31798 16559 -1922 71782
2004-05 23378 20959 19817 -7679 64974
2004-06 40575 15769 27156 1755 73007
2004-07 13250 19279 28180 9777 61066
2004-08 14427 17489 24430 -1126 54228
2004-09 15779 8095 43930 -3068 67463
2004-10 18338 22002 19154 3760 48063
which I did, went short cable and got stopped out on the TIC number (-30 pips). At the moment USD selloff is lacking follow through. So which way will it go?
TIC data down to $48.1Bn net inflows.
fiber back below 3380-3390 resi
Is the time EST? Do you have a possibility to post a chart with what you are seeing?
Currencies behave differently during the day, you are right on that. I think it is mainly because of the time different markets open around the world.
For example the US stock and bond market will open soon. While it is open, one can expect more movement with USD crosses than during asian or euro session. Simply because the "world" has a chance to buy or sell US securities at that time with huge liquidity.
You mean that? It would be interesting to assemble all those times, like market openings/closing around the world...
s.
Fred,
it's actually not a question easy to answer. Of course, your calculations are right. The profit of 100 USD would be a loss of 110 Euros.
The bad thing here is, not only is your USD profit affected by the weakening USD, but also your inital investment looses value. That is really painfull when the USD weakens 40%.
The Belgian would only invest in a US stock market, when he expects that his profits on stocks will outweight the loss he suffers from the weaking USD. So if he expects the USD do fall 40%, his stocks need to make at least 67% profits for him/her to break even. That is already bad, but it can get even worse.
Of course when the USD appreciates and the Belgian holds a loss on the stock, he could get out with a profit in Euros.
And now comes the hard part, where it is impossible to give a straight out answer. A changing currency not only changes the value of your investment but also the perception of it!!!
For example, the USD dropped 40% and foreign investors become reluctant to actually put more money into the US stock market or even start to take their money out. Therefore, your stock is going to drop even more. A deadly spiral.
On the other hand, when the USD value isn't dropping too fast/much, a weaker USD might attract more capital into the stock market, since those stocks are cheaper to buy for foreigners.
Which one actually is stronger depends on many factors being all connected to each other. E.g. inflation, earnings, interest rates, etc.
The same goes for other securities. For example bonds or treasuries where the yield is important. Yesterday the FOMC highered the interest rate to 2.25% in the US, in Europe it stands at 2%. I also believe the yields on US bonds are at the moment higher than on EURO bonds. That means US bonds are cheaper than EURO bonds. Now, normally that yield differential would immediately vanish because of arbitrage. Traders would sell EURO bonds and buy US bonds until the yield is more or less the same. Because of this a lot of money would flow into the US and the USD would appreciate. But at the moment it simply doesn't. Why?, because everybody is just so afraid to go for this arbitrage play and loose a lot of money when the USD drops further.
That leads us the next point essential for the survival in the currency market. The big momentum. It is a strong force that overrides fundamentals many times. And because of this you are actually not a sharp person when you buy US securities when the USD is weak. It probably will be even weaker in the future. You are only a sharp person when at least the medium term trend, if not the longer term trend, of the USD is strenghtening. And only then.
I am myself not the sharpest person at the moment, since I keep a small portion of my portfolio in US stocks since years.
And to your last question. A weak dollar doesn't necessarily let the EU industry suffer. Some companies are affected negativly some positively. You also cannot say the export industry is only affected negativly. First they can hedge their contracts, second they can buy cheaper resources on the world market, and third if they have a contract to sell their product over a long time period with a fix price in Euros they have nothing to worry about.
So, I hope I answered your question a little, although I have to admit the topic is actually more complex...
bye
s.
Bob,
sure it has time to implement. Good things need time.
Unfortunately I don't know ASP and IHub scripting so well as to quickly pull out the necessary code here for. But I've done it for PHP/SQL and there it is quite easy. Something like this for the search display page if it helps:
$search = $_POST['search'];
$page = $page+0;
$result = mysql_query( "SELECT messageid FROM ihub WHERE name like \"%$search%\" or text like \"%$search%\" order by entrytime LIMIT $page, 10" )
or die("SELECT Error: ".mysql_error());
while ($get_id = mysql_fetch_array($result, MYSQL_ASSOC)){
$result2 = mysql_query( "SELECT name, text FROM ihub WHERE messageid=\"%$get_id%\" " )
or die("SELECT Error: ".mysql_error());
while ($search = mysql_fetch_array($result2, MYSQL_ASSOC)){
print "$search[name], $search[text]";
}
}
$page = $page+10;
of course the code is incomplete..
and so on, the basic idea, two database searches on the searchdisplaypage, the first searches all message id where string was found. the second prints the text of all idresults limited to 10 per page.
greets
s.
I was already shorting last night around 9280-9290. Lowered s/l after it cracked. During the night I got stoped out with a profit luckily around 9250.
I wanted to reshort this morning at 9290, but didn't when I saw some momentum coming. Wanted to buy cable momentum for scalp but couldn't find a comfortable entry. So I missed this rally.
I am now watching the cable rally and being undecided if I should short here at around 9350 or wait bit longer.
I will definetely short cable at 9390-9400 with s/l something around 20-30 pips away if it goes there.
"cable shows signs of strength-fwiw"
good for shorting imho.
fiber (eur/usd) can't stay above 3300, cable (gbp/usd) can't even reach 9300, and so on. I am buying USD across the board, looking for good entries. My trading idea is the usd will end the whipsaw on the long side. will see...
Thanks Bob for considering it.
It should be easy to do when you simply change the search result code from displaying the "subject header" to displaying the full "message". Maybe limit it to 10 messages per page so it's not so traffic intense.
What could be the expensive part in your opinion?
bye
s.
-55.46bn trade gap, bad for usd...
I seems to me the market is in whipsaw mode until the FOMC rate decision and commentary. Imho this is a scalping market.
Aradigm Signs Development and Licensing Agreements for the Treatment of Respiratory Infections
PR Newswire - December 13, 2004 08:45
HAYWARD, Calif., Dec 13, 2004 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Aradigm Corporation (Nasdaq: ARDM) today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Defence R&D Canada for the aerosolized delivery of liposomal-encapsulated ciprofloxacin to develop a treatment and prophylaxis for serious respiratory infections, including, but not limited to, bioterror-related inhalation anthrax. The drug will be delivered by Aradigm's AERx(R) technology platform.
Under the terms of the contract, Defence R&D Canada (DRDC) is funding Aradigm's product and formulation development work and initial pre-clinical studies, with work scheduled to begin in January 2005. Stemming from this agreement, Aradigm will hold the intellectual property associated with the inhalation of liposomal ciprofloxacin, an anti-infective agent used in multiple disease states.
"We are pleased to be in partnership with DRDC and that they recognize the delivery benefits of the AERx System in this area of great international importance," said Dr. Bryan Lawlis, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aradigm. "This agreement is intended to build upon the proof-of-principle work already completed successfully by DRDC. The goal of DRDC and Aradigm is to complete pre-clinical studies next year and move as rapidly as possible into human safety studies. With these agreements, Aradigm now owns a proprietary and potentially efficacious formulation of an anti-infective for the treatment of a wide range of respiratory diseases with significant commercial potential."
In addition to the DRDC contract, Aradigm has been granted an exclusive worldwide license by Inex Pharmaceuticals Corporation to their intellectual property relating to the manufacturing of liposomal ciprofloxacin.
"Encapsulation of ciprofloxacin in liposomes results in a liquid formulation that can be readily aerosolized and delivered efficiently to the lung as well as dramatically increasing the residence time of the ciprofloxacin within the lung," said Dr. Stephen Farr, Aradigm's Chief Scientific Officer. "For local infections of the lung, our goal is to develop liposomes that release the ciprofloxacin at a sustained rate to enhance the killing of pathogens. Beyond the initial technical development, the contract enables Aradigm to evaluate the efficacy of inhaled liposomal ciprofloxacin in established animal models of respiratory infections. Data from these studies may provide the opportunity to proceed into human studies for the treatment of respiratory infections such as those prevalent in patients with cystic fibrosis."
Aradigm develops non-invasive delivery systems to enable patients to comfortably self-administer biopharmaceuticals and small molecules that would otherwise be given by injection. The company's advanced AERx(R) pulmonary and Intraject(R) needle-free delivery technologies offer rapid delivery solutions for liquid drug formulations. Current development programs focus on neurological disorders, heart disease, respiratory conditions and cancer. More information about Aradigm can be found at http://www.aradigm.com .
DRDC is an agency of the Canadian Department of National Defence responding to the scientific and technological needs of the Canadian Forces. Its mission is to ensure that the CF remains scientifically and operationally relevant. The agency is made up of six research centres located across Canada with a corporate office in Ottawa. DRDC has an annual budget of $250 million and employs 1400 people. With a broad scientific program, DRDC actively collaborates with industry, international allies, academia, other government departments and the national security community. More information about DRDC can be found at http://www.drdc-rddc.gc.ca .
Except for the historical information contained herein, this news release contains forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties, including clinical results, the timely availability and acceptance of new products, the impact of competitive products and pricing, and the management of growth, as well as the other risks detailed from time to time in Aradigm Corporation's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Filings, including the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K, and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
AERx and Intraject are registered trademarks of Aradigm.
Contact: Christopher Keenan or Joe Dorame
Aradigm RCG Capital Markets Group, Inc.
(510) 265-9370 (480) 675-0400
SOURCE Aradigm Corporation
Christopher Keenan of Aradigm, +1-510-265-9370; or Joe Dorame of
RCG Capital Markets Group, Inc., +1-480-675-0400
The TIC will be published Dec. 15 at 14:00 GMT / 9:00 EST.
TIC Data - Funding The US Deficit
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Published Date: December 10, 2004
On December 15th, the US is scheduled to release its monthly data on net foreign purchases of US securities, also known as the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report, which measures shifting international portfolio and capital positions. In an environment where currency values are increasingly driven by capital flows, the TIC data is a key piece of information that directly reveals cross-border transactions involving US securities. With the dollar driven lower by concerns about the current account deficit, the TIC data will be one of the most anticipated reports next week. A large and growing current account deficit in the US requires net foreign capital inflows on the order of at least $1.8 billion per day. The TIC report acts as an approximate gauge of foreign investor willingness to finance this deficit. Smaller than expected net foreign purchases offer a possible signal that the deficit may be becoming unsustainable as foreigners lose their appetite for US assets. The chart below indicates that over the past year, the gap between net foreign purchases of US securities and the trade deficit has been narrowing, explaining the market's concern over the deficit.
According to the latest TIC data, net foreign inflow for the month of September increased from an upwardly revised $59.9 billion to $63.4 billion. The data indicates that there was a sufficient influx of funds during the month of September to meet the trade deficit for the same month, which narrowed to -$51.6 billion from -$53.5 billion. However, the dollar did not rally following this report because the details also indicated that Japan was a net seller of US securities. The weaker dollar has prompted a surge in private investment of Treasuries and corporate bonds, which should have been bullish for the dollar. Unfortunately, the market feared that this might foreshadow a longer-term trend of Asian central banks reducing or even dumping their extraordinary holdings of US treasuries. Although one month can barely be used as reference for a longer-term trend, if this does becomes a reality in October's report, not only would the dollar face a deeper slide, but the US economic recovery could be threatened as Treasury prices fall and yields soar. The charts on the following page graphically display the trend of US treasury purchases by the 2 largest holders of US treasuries.
Resources: http://www.treas.gov/tic/
Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_070.html
Hi,
when I do a Public Message Search, I would like to read the results in 10 or 50 posts at a time on one page. Like reading multiple reply posts at the same time.
At the moment I have to click every post and go back to the list. Very inconvenient.
Or is it implemented and I don't know about it?
Thanks.
s.
Yeah, but it's kind of sad that their technology is not yet far enough to use them as preservative. You have to get the timing right... LOL
greets.
s.
PS.: I am currently starting up a currency board here on IHub. It should be of interest also for people not trading currencies. Feel invited to check it out here:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=2236
This board is now up to 13 boardmarks from basically none a few days ago.
It is kind of hard to find people here on IHub who posted currency posts regularly in the past or who seem to be interested in currencies. One can probably count them with two hands.
Exchange rates are basically the "price of money" of an economy looked at from the outside. Many things can be learned from that about the state and direction a specific economy is going.
So if you come across a person who might be interested in that, feel free to tell me or invite him/her over her. Thx.
S.
I agree, imho China should have floated 3 years ago. I was in China for a longer time 4-5 years ago and their economy was exploding as in the golden twenties.
This is a noteworthy quote from the article regarding timings for traders:
"There is a lag in the link between these liquidity injections, growth in money base and money supply, and finally inflation - about five months," said Jens Nystedt, senior emerging markets economist at Deutsche Bank.
I always thought the effect of liquidity injections onto inflation is greater than 6 months. Hmm, does anybody have any observation regarding this correlation?
Re: Yen
A naive person like myself could easily ask the question, why do actually all the other developed countries (Eur, Japan, etc.) dislike the weak dollar?
Of course, everybody knows it makes goods they export to the world market more expensive to sell. So what, I say, it also makes goods they import cheaper, e.g. fruits for the people, gaz for the cars and natural resources for the production. That would make a lot of people wealthier and industries had a chance to produce cheaper offsetting the negative effect on exports (since they could also sell their goods cheaper)
Unfortunately or fortunately, developed countries successfully established import barriers through taxes and subsidies, to protect their economies. For two reasons.
1. All politicians are corrupt (well, not all not yet) and they like those gifts from lobbies and bow down to organized groups.
2. They simply have to stay a "net-exporting" country to stay in the game.
So as you can see, because of this the negative effects on exports will be greater than the positive effect on imports when the dollar falls. Otherwise nobody would care so much about dollar movements here.
It feels like we see one or two more weeks of dollar correction.
I am looking for fiber (eur/usd) hiting 1.45 next year. This should help the PoG. At that point expect some intense central bank intervention. Why?, because that are resistance levels from the years 1980 and 1992. Central banks are run by economist and all they do is constantly maximize their utility. LOL. If they intervene at that level, they can hope for many traders jumping on the train. So steep correction expected.
What happens after that, could be really interesting. China floating the yuan. US deficit further skyrocking etc. So there is a chance USD turns around and blasts through 1.45 and higher with global consequences I haven't finished thinking to the end.
Yub, the best solution would probably be a "dual system". I am really curious if it (ever) happens, since there is a strong lobbying influence from the US.
Asien countries are also adjusting their currency reserves for some time now, buying Euros. For sure, if China floats the yuan, we will see some shockwaves imho. They try to make it smooth, but I have my doubts. And as longer they wait, as tuffer it will get.
6 PCs, but one of it is just gateway and firewall. All 6 have one monitor and are silenced, like passiv cooling etc. I need either complete silence or pushing music or relaxing music.
1 is for the order entry software only, running nothing else to avoid hickups. 2 for charts and message boards. the last 2 are just backup or TV (seldom) or if something comes up temporarily. I find watching more than 2 monitors at a time too tiring.
For quotes/charts, well, you asked a difficult questions. "I am" basically all sqattered around since I evolved my t/a over time. So I have a lot of bookmarked charts, which are pre-setup for certain indicators, styles, times etc at many sites e.g. bigcharts, stockcharts etc. I use them and just change the symbol for whatever I want to look at. I sometimes also use offline chart soft for longer term analysis, irregularly. It all depends, usually if something doesn't work for me, I try to adjust or change it. If something works, I keep on using it until it doesn't anymore. FXtrade is the biggest provider, I like to use them, although sometimes their software has severe problems, delays or lost connections. However their customer support is great and the usually fix any problems nicely. There streaming charts are also ok.
What about you?
done scalping that suicide sucker market of today. came out with -7 pips doing that, time to stop for the weekend. watching stocks now, kind of relaxing when they do 1-3% per hour. LOL
s
very thin market today
careful with trading
Yes, the USD is going through a correction at the moment.
I personally think this can bring the eur/usd down to 3000-3050, gbp/usd 8900, usd/cad 2400-2600, etc
After that the USD selloff could resume.
All just my t/a based opinion. So as always, go with the flow.
Yeah, let us know your trades.
I am done for today. Did some scalping back and forth. No sense posting them here since I am in and out too quick. Came out with 43 pips profit for the day. Not bad, but hard work. Still 86%.
Kind of missed the GBP/USD squeeze. At that time I was long EUR/USD and got 19 pips. At the same time GBP/USD printed 119. Oh well, GBP/USD could have been better to me lately. Yesterday I got stopped out my short at 9340 before it went to the predicted 9140...
Tomorrow is another day.
good night.
wow, look at gbp/usd squeeze. Anybody on board?
great day for scalping, first eur/usd and nzd/usd nicely rangebound, later some tradable usd strenght...
landm,
whatever works for you is fine.
1 min chart is the one to go if you look for scalping the market or to find good entry or exit prices.
If you don't go for quick trades and don't care about +/- a few pips, go for different charts.
20 and 50 ema seems too slow imho. Actually I use MAs only for stocks not for currencies. So how do you use them?
RSI is great, but only in sync with other t/a imho...
s