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CEP Chart $21.00
Pinch releasing very nice, not a large volume stock and it has done well both today and yesterday when the markets have just really sucked. Earnings looked good, fundamentals look decent.
Yahoo/Reuters didn't have a share structure available, Scottrade shows it at 16.1 million shares issued and outstanding. This would describe the low volume for sure if it's accurate.
Constellation Energy Partners Reports Solid Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results
CEP Story link
NTLS Chart, $21.33 and booming
Another one that snubbed it's nose at the Dow and had a great day. Guess with the figures they put out it was kind of expected though.
NTELOS Holdings Corp. Reports Fourth Quarter and the Year 2007 Operating Results
Thursday February 28, 5:24 pm ET
2007 Revenues Exceed Half-Billion, up 14% Over 2006
2007 Adjusted EBITDA of $203.0 million, up 18% Over 2006
2007 Wireless Adjusted EBITDA of $142.2 million, up 27% Over 2006
NTLS link to Financial Story
Analyst Lifts Revenue Outlook for Taser on Strong First-Qtr Sales and Older Customer Orders
NEW YORK (AP) -- A Merriman Curhan Ford analyst raised his revenue estimates on Taser International Inc. Friday, saying the stun gun maker will report strong sales in the first quarter.
Eric Wold said Taser has announced orders worth $3.4 million so far in 2008, reporting contracts for almost 5,000 Taser X26 and M26 products. Almost half that revenue comes from older customers increasing their orders, he wrote, and that should become a dependable source of sales for Taser.
"With more than 12,400 police departments currently using Tasers and only 35 percent of those departments at full deployment, we believe the continued deployment of additional Tasers to those departments should represent a strong source of relatively easy sales for Taser in the years ahead," Wold said.
Wold raised his first-quarter revenue estimate by $1.1 million, to $28.4 million from $27.3 million. He boosted his full-year profit forecast by the same amount, to $131 million. He kept a "Buy" rating on the stock.
On average, analysts reporting to Thomson Financial expect Taser revenue to reach $25.9 million in the first quarter, and $128 million for the year.
Taser's most recent order announcement came Thursday, when it said the Los Angeles Port Police ordered 180 Taser X26s, and the police department of Doral, Fla., ordered 100 X26s, along with 100 Taser Cam recording devices and other products. Financial terms were not disclosed for the orders, which will be filled in the first quarter.
HURN Chart $53.06 pincher
Every once in awhile you just find a chart that as soon as you see it you really like it, this is one of those charts IMO. Did someone say the markets tanked today?? You would never prove it by looking at this chart.
Financials hit Thursday AMC, looks to have some promise to it.
HURN Financial News
I'm with you on this one, I agree we need to be cautious about how we use the options and understand we lose value as time draws near to the contracts expiration as well as the difference in profits.
On the flip side of that though let me see if I can explain what I had in mind when I made mention of using options to play the pinchers.
I will use HWAY as we are both familiar with it and it fits what I was thinking. See chart below
On Tuesday HWAY took a severe beating, worse than a redheaded kid in a foster home to be exact. Not because it was a bad play or a bad chart but because they dropped news right before market open that investors didn't take well.
Monday HWAY already had a pinch on the chart and closed at 45.35. Tuesday it opened at 31.54, fell to a low of 28.43 and closed at 31.93. This just made the pinch on the chart tighter.
Wednesday HWAY closed at 32.70 for a 2.4% gain
Thursday HWAY closed at 33.56 for a 2.6% gain, also keep in mind the markets dropped pretty hard on this day.
One thing I like to look for on days when the dow takes a beating is stocks that pulled of a green day, IMO shows the stock has some strength to it for more gains.
So lets assume we catch this before EOD yesterday, the markets are down and this thing is green. It's trading around the 33.50 mark and we believe it will continue into the next day. Let's say we look at calls and find the March 35.00 calls attractive and buy some before close at or around 1.10. With scottrade one contract would cost me 118.25.
Today HWAY opened at 33.64, hit HOD of 35.74 and closed at 34.35. Had you bought long before EOD yesterday and sold at HOD today you would have had 6.5% gain before commissions.
Had you bought the March 35.00 calls you would have had 104.5% gain before commissions at HOD. On one contract that would have been 89.5% in gains after commissions. Even if you sold on the bid before EOD you would still have had 7.5% gains after commissions. Of course how much money you make depends upon how much money you risk. If I had made this play and only had 118.25 on the line and I had a green day when the markets were down over 300 points, I probably would've held them til monday just to see what happened.
One march 35.00 call contract would have given me 98.45 profit after commissions on a risk of 118.25. To have made the same dollar gain buying long I would have had to have put up 1515.00 and had the stock pulled back 10% I would have lost 151.50, that's 33.25 more than I could have lost with one option contract
Of course this is a risky way to do it, but then again anytime you make a purchase you have risk involved. The thing I like about this is, the risk isn't that great but the reward potential is huge.
HWAY Option Chain
I checked out the new board earlier, looks good including the world class introduction in the iBox. I believe this is going to be a great place for discussing big board plays and techniques on how to approach those plays. I believe when we get rolling here this board is going to open up a whole new world to many.
Let's make that money, that's what we are here for!!
I wouldn't dwell on it too much, markets took a huge beat down today. I haven't had time yet to take a close look at what you did yet, I plan on doing that this evening when I have a bit more available time to digest it all well.
I did a similar move with MGLN today, thought it would do well and jumped in early only to have it fall apart on me. I'm not going to sweat it as I believe the play is solid for now and should produce well when we get a decent day.
I also took a position in AMZN with some April $50 puts. It's kind of a lotto play for me right now, didn't put huge money on it and if AMZN does even close to what I think it will over the next month I should come out well on it.
Did a day turn on PRU today for a 10% gain, it didn't fall like I expected it to so I jumped out near low of day right before close. I figured no reason to turn down a 10% gain on a day like today.
I'll be around a bit later to look back over the day.
MGLN on a nice push upwards here, may get back to HOD
PRU chart
I'm a bit mixed on this one right now, I like the chart just not ready to make any type of assumption as I can see things that point me in both directions, may need a day or two to confirm a few thoughts on it
MGLN news and chart
I like the looks of this combination, beat earnings and PPS has been downtrending, look for nice gains here today
6:32AM Magellan Health beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance, revs guidance (MGLN) 42.17 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.78 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.66; revenues rose 42.6% year/year to $658 mln vs the $660.2 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.88-2.34 vs. $2.15 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $2.53-2.66 bln vs. $2.62 bln consensus.
AMZN annotated chart
I was looking at this one last night but needed to sleep on it. Came back to it this morning, looked at it from a bit of a different angle and the notes are what stood out to me.
It's still a bit early yet but right now the bid and ask are 66.37 x 67.04 with 400 printed. Both the bid and the ask are below the blue line at this time. IMO it will ride the bottom bollinger down from here.
Looking at insider transactions, these boys really have been having a good time selling their stock and exercising options to buy more at under 10.00/share. I'd sure like to be in on that action as I can tell you who's been making big money on this thing.
JK pointed out to me a post over on another message board on it. Post makes mention of how best buy and circuit city sales and PPS are down, Sears holding is down, even target is down. Retail is in the gutter right and Amazon is selling the same items everyone else is why would anyone believe they would be profitable this year?? Makes a whole lot of sense to me, at least it sounds good.
I'm looking at either shorting or buying puts on this bad boy as I think it will come unwound real nicely if it breaks those support lines. Just my opinion of course and I could be wrong!
Just a quick thought here, JK and I have talked about this a bit and I was curious what your thoughts are.
We all know how many of our pinchers have worked out. We pick them off our scanner, chart looks absolutely awesome, we buy in long, sit on them awhile, don't get the action we want, we start second guessing our pick then move on to another play only to see them erupt a week or so after we pulled out.
What I have been putting some thought into is finding some pinchers with great potential like AAPL and PRU to name a few, buying calls at or below where we believe the resistance is that they will run to and filing them away for the pop. I find this especially attractive on plays that have found a bottom and started to curve upwards.
I'm not so much interested in exercising the options as I am trading them and I believe with this we can cover more plays and turn some serious gains when they do make big runs.
Any thoughts??
very interesting concept indeed, I like how that sounds, took me a couple reads through to get a grasp on it but think I've come to terms with it now......lol
I'm all ears, lay it on us, I think we can take it......Maybe.....lol
Also been toying with the iBox tonight, I got two of you plays on there, I'm thinking you had some more that were better than 20% but there's a lot of messages to dig through. Remind me if you have something additional you want in there. If you don't want them posted let me know and I'll take them off as well
Also will be adding some information links to the iBox as well, especially options. If you have any good sights you want in or that would be helpful let me know.
disregard that last message, I see where you posted the figures
If you don't care to do so, figure your total percentage gain and time and I'll throw it in the iBox. I think we need to be keeping track of some of these monster plays so come about Thanksgiving we can look back and reflect on the year without having to dig through thousands of posts........lol
I'm in total awe to be honest with you. Thanks for the heads up, I knew it was a good play but hadn't looked at it from that point of view until yesterday.
I also have to completely agree that options are just too powerful to not use.
As for the flight, may have to pass right now as I didn't have as many contracts as you did but I did have a nice steak last night.
I took profit on my AAPL March 125 calls. In at 3.95 out at 8.70
113% profit after commissions in one day
Still holding some April 160 calls which could do me very well if it continues on with nice gains
It just doesn't get much better than that, I'm still holding my march 125 calls that are now up over 120% from my 3.95 entry and took a chance on some April 160 calls, small risk, huge potential
RHD nice find, 5 minute intraday looks like it's ready to come up off bottom already.
Extremely nice indeed, and it's a problem I don't know how to deal with as I haven't been faced with it very much in the past.
My March 125 calls that I added yesterday at 3.95 were up 88.6% at HOD of 7.45
sure beats the hell out of 3%.............lol
I am really liking the sound of that. I think we are golden right now with AAPL, no doubt about that.
I've been putting a huge amount of time into learning more and more about how to play these and the more I learn the more I like them. I think JK even has warmed up to them......lol
I'm looking at a bit of a new strategy and will be paper trading it for awhile to see how it works out. If it works out I'll throw it out there for everyone, if not, well we'll go back to the drawing board......lol
Ready to make some bank today?? Looks like AAPL is down a bit in premarket from AH trading yesterday but still up huge from close.
Markets look to be wanting to fall this morning, I may do ok with my March 155 puts on POT
Markets being down probably has some effect on AAPL trading a bit lower this morning as well IMO
GLTY today
BRKR news and chart
Consensus of .11, beat by .06, that's 55% better than consensus. It's been gaining some, but this should really put a fire under it IMO. Looking for nice gains here.
7:13AM Bruker BioSciences beats by $0.06, beats on revs (BRKR) 12.22 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.11; revenues rose 35.5% year/year to $183.7 mln vs the $154.5 mln consensus.
S (Sprint Nextel) News and chart
This should play off decent IMO. Looking for some gains here
7:14AM Sprint Nextel beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; not to declare a dividend for the forseeable future (S) 8.95 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.21 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.18; revenues fell 5.7% year/year to $9.85 bln vs the $9.92 bln consensus. Wireless had 53.8 million total subscribers at the end of 2007. At the end of the fourth quarter, Sprint Nextel served a little more than 35 million subscribers on the CDMA platform, 17.3 million on iDEN and 1.4 million PowerSource subscribers who access both platforms. Overall, post-paid churn was 2.3% in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, the post-paid churn rate was flat with the third quarter for both the iDEN and CDMA bases. Board of Directors has determined that the company will not declare a dividend for the foreseeable future, in an effort to retain greater financial flexibility.
CTB News and Chart
It's been gaining some, however this is exceptional news IMO. I look for continued gains here.
7:27AM Cooper Tire beats by $0.07, beats on revs (CTB) 19.11 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.43 per share, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 7.0% year/year to $765.1 mln vs the $743.8 mln consensus.
FRE News and Chart
Not any surprises here IMO, may be worth watching for a short play
7:44AM Freddie Mac misses by $1.63 (FRE) 25.09 : Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $3.97 per share, $1.63 worse than the First Call consensus of ($2.34). Net loss was $2.5 bln for 4Q07, compared to a loss of $1.2 bln for the 3Q07. The majority of this increase in loss resulted from significant mark-to-market losses detailed below in the discussions of other non-interest loss and other non-interest expense. Without giving effect to the accounting changes for the co's guarantee obligation discussed above, the Q4 net loss would have been $3.7 bln. "Today's economy represents one of the most severe housing downturns in American history, and our results reflect that difficult environment as well as Freddie Mac's steadfast commitment to its important mission of providing liquidity, stability and affordability to the U.S. housing finance system... We remain extremely cautious as we enter 2008. If the economy weakens substantially from here - a possibility for which we need to be prepared as a company - it will have a further negative effect on homeowners across the country and drive credit costs higher. However, we have taken the steps to add capital, tighten our management of credit risk and institute pricing policies that are more consistent with the risk we bear... In 2008, we will continue to prudently manage our capital, particularly given the outlook for continued weakening in the housing market." In addition, as a result of the continuing deterioration in the U.S. housing market, the co has revised its estimate of total credit losses for 2008 and 2009 to $2.2 bln and $2.9 bln, respectively.
PDGI news and chart
Great target here for a short play IMO. Trading at the top of its channel with all kinds of room under it. Has been trading sideways for last couple months and slightly declining. Chart is top heavy as well.
News:
6:08AM PharmaNet Devlpmt beats by $0.02, misses on revs; guides FY08 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (PDGI) 41.35 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.31; revenues rose 16.7% year/year to $92.3 mln vs the $94.5 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.42-1.57 vs. $1.76 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $401-409 mln vs. $414.81 mln consensus.
GSS news and chart
3:55AM Golden Star Resources reports Q407 results (GSS) 4.03 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.03, excluding valuation allowance for tax assets, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.01); revenue rose 112% year/year to $69.88 mln vs the $68.32 mln consensus.
SHLD (Sears Holdings) news and chart
another one I'm mixed on. I don't think it is much surprise that they missed revenues as much talk as there has been about their business declining. It has taken a pretty good hit already coming down from 152.91 a couple months ago to a low of 84.72 and closing yesterday at 101.60. IMO it could easily drop back to low 90's or mid 80's on this news over the next couple days. Chart actually showing a couple signs of strength but news may very well trump any recovery efforts for awhile here. Worth keeping an eye on for a short play IMO.
news:
6:09AM Sears Hldg misses by $0.06, misses on revs (SHLD) 101.60 : Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $3.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 worse than the First Call consensus of $3.10; revenues fell 6.8% year/year to $15.07 bln vs the $15.26 bln consensus.
GTLS news and chart
I'm mixed on this one, news out is great however it closed yesterday at 30.00. 52wk low is 15.82, 52wk high is 36.00, so it's trading closer to the upper part of that spread already and has gained a little over 8.00/share since around Jan 22. IMO it's possible that these numbers were expected and we may not get a big pop out of it but I expect some nice gains on it. One thing to be careful with that can work for or against you is that it doesn't have a lot of shares available, I'm showing 28,055,000 shares issued and outstanding. If my source is accurate it won't take much pressure to cause it to move either way. Chart is getting pretty top heavy as well but still has some room for more gains. IMO if considering an entry watch it closely.
News:
6:43AM Chart Indust beats by $0.16, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (GTLS) 30.00 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.57 per share, $0.16 better than the First Call consensus of $0.41; revenues rose 26.5% year/year to $182.7 mln vs the $166.3 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.28-2.40 vs. $2.20 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $730-765 mln vs. $738.50 mln consensus.
nice update for sure and I hope you are right on estimates, I tend to agree with you on them.
APPX News and Chart
This looks like an incredible opportunity for a nice run to me. I've not looked beyond the initial news and chart and will be doing so before tomorrow.
4:28PM APP Pharma receives final approval for Irinotecan Hydrochloride Injection (APPX) 11.72 -0.07 : Co announces that it has received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration of its Abbreviated New Drug Application for Irinotecan Hydrochloride Injection, 40 mg/2mL and 100mg/5mL, the generic equivalent of Camptosar Injection manufactured by Pfizer (PFE). Co has immediately commenced marketing and shipping the product. APPX's irinotecan is AP-rated, bar-coded and latex-free. Sales of Camptosar in the United States were ~$556 mln in 2007.
very impressive, I hadn't had time to look at them yet but I like the sound of that.
LKQX did quite well today. It gapped up at open to 21.21, could have grabbed it premarket or right at open and rode it up to 23.02 which was HOD. That would have been an 8.5% flip for the day on a long buy.
I'm going to have to start watching options on these plays as well as I'm liking that my morning picks are having nice runs and they are pretty easy to tell which ones will have nice action for the day.
AH last on AAPL was 127.30, should carry over for a nice gap up in the morning. daily chart is set up very nice and there is plenty of room for the run before it gets too top heavy.
I've not been able to find any news but I'm just about beside myself right now. I bought calls before close over 2.00 out of the money and after hours has me over 2.40 in the money right now. INCREDIBLE!!
As for that cigar, you renting a charter plane to fly you to Cuba to buy a good one??
If what AAPL is doing right now AH is any indicator of tomorrow, I don't think you will have any regrets buying it over GS.
One of the best prospects I have played in quite awhile without any doubt.
Thanks!
Don't be watching the after hours trading, AAPL up big after hours already.
I ended up buying March 155 puts of POT today at 5.00 on a whim. Still a bit nervous on it but have some profit in it.
I then got inspired by AAPL after watching how much bank you were making and grabbed some march 125 calls at 3.95 near EOD.
Almost can't wait til tomorrow to see how this works out......lol
from the looks of things you should be having a really nice day.
FSS news and chart
PPS near the bottom of its channel, could be a nice mover today
8:32AM Federal Signal beats by $0.03, beats on revs (FSS) 11.00 : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.14; revenues rose 3.5% year/year to $351 mln vs the $343.8 mln consensus.