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Not sure on the weakness today for ARNA. Just some profit taking perhaps.. Trading below offering price of $41.50. FWIW I added
Great report. Certainly ARNA pipeline has been de-risked to a marked degree. I think there is a good chance they will be bought out (CELG ?) at some point.
With upsized offering at $41.50, their cash position is solid all the way to completing P3 trials.
Agree with Dew. Companies have ATM provisions for various reasons as it ensures ready cash flow when needed. Filing a shelf too is similar which by itself doesn’t mean co will make an offering. Knowing RVNC track record and esp in light of CFO statement, I am not worried at all with this ATM.
Good opportunity to add, IMO
Classic case of anti-thesis of investing based on ‘well understood’ MOA and successful P2 data.
In Dermira situation, there was not even a placebo effect in failed P3. The drug simply didn’t work. I question the credibility of P2 trials now.
Good that Sakura-3 is open label; so investors can track any safety issue.
The long trials that Revance has gone thru speaks loud as how high the bar is when it comes to ‘Botox’ approval.
I just hope they keep their laser focus on getting BLA filed as quickly as possible. Execution, execution and execution. Biosimilars can wait.
Agree.
While $25 may be small, keep in mind that larger upfront would mean aggressive push by MYL which is not good for RT002. So indirectly good for RVNC’s RT002 program. They have a cake and eating it too.
Alll BLPH bagholders;
The doc (you know who he is) has made his money and moved on. You should be proud for being his next batch of bagholders. So cheer up.
Well said. sourly missed ENTA for selling early. But look at MNTA. Lost good money on its earlier biosimilor and Capaxone promise. I don’t think I will ever it back.
My take on RVNC is distinction on duration and safety is key. Both are proven now with two (not one) trials.
CEO Dan has lot on his shoulders for effective marketing now as approval is almost certain.
Dew,
Came across this ‘weakness’ in Botox insofar as from co-administering multiple patients from a single open vial.
“Botulinum toxin type A (BOTOX®; Allergan, Irvine, Calif) was the first commercially available type in the United States. Its safety is well established. The drawback is that once the contents of a vial are dissolved, the reconstituted product loses its potency. Therefore, dermatologists tend to schedule the treatments for several patients on the same day so that they can use the entire contents of the vial. This scheduling may be inconvenient for some patients, who may decide not to proceed.”
While this may be minor, do we know whether Revance’s RT002 could be differentiated on this account due to their proprietary peptide inclusion ? T.I.A
Great find ! Very insightful post. Thanks for sharing.
Exactly. And practitioners know that happy patients are key and cost is not a major factor for most patients looking for Botox treatment but duration & safety is : both a big differentiator for Revance’s 2nd gen Tox.
Hi Dew,
Do we know whether for secondary endpoints for Sakura 1 & 2 trials, the definition of ‘x number of mos. duration’ was agreed with FDA ? I understand co. met with FDA prior to start of trial but not sure this was included.
Just wondering from labeling perspective as if this agreed already, co. claim of 6-mos duration has lot of weight.
T.I.A
Dew, pardon my asking but couldn’t resist :)
Now with stellar data and offering to ensure solid finances, are you planning more to your RVNC holdings ? T.I.A
Congrads, Dew ! And other longs on this board. Investment thesis based on proved MOA definitely played spectacularly in RVNC situation !
Proud RVNC long
FWIW, my concern now is regardless of co’s PR on Sakura r/o, MS analyst will poh-poh the results; so expect lot of volatility on the PR day.
Yes. Where were they when Belmont trial data was released ? Now they are contradicting the very science of MOA behind RT002.
“Risinger said he thinks it could be difficult for Revance to demonstrate that RT002 is materially longer-lasting than Botox”
Looks like this analyst from MS is going to eat crow like Andrew Berens did with his fiasco on Relypsa.
Apparently Mr Tsao never got a Botox or know someone who got some. Given RT002’s safety profile and even with 5+ months duration, it has great potential. Several Botox KOL’s have confirmed both these factors will be a differentiator as happy pts are vital to recurring business esp in aesthetics,
Just to be clear, no analysts have said stock will drop if not for 24w. Closer to 24w is a ‘home run’ for sure and per CEO, ~5 mos duration
is ‘very good’ for commercial advantage.
So grey area is between the two but I will take the low bar (~5 mos) any day :)
I freed some funds but will wait for a day or two. Breaking $25 usually gets few more nervous hands to wash out causing possibly another dip. I hope not, of course !
I am looking for April 18 $30 strike too
RVNC —> Orphan bio with no respect. I refuse to take any more offer to buy :)
Good to know. I think if P3 Sakura shows stellar safety, it will be a big win. The more I read about current Botox Tx, the key concern continues to be side effect. With FDA advocating various toxins currently available are NOT interchangeable due to safety concern,RT002’s localized effect will be well received by providers and by patients as well, IMO.
Not necessarily. Botox and Botox cosmetic from AGN are Type A botulinum toxin and so is from Revance. The suffix character A thru H (total 8 types) identifies various types of toxin with H being most deadly. A billionth of a gram injected can cause death in an adult.
Revance received it’s ODD due to peptide+toxin combination that so far has proven to give highly localized effect. Spreading to other unintended parts of muscle is major cause of concern with existing products.
And I believe they read this board avidly :)
RVNC action is pathetic to say the least. Insider buy at open market got as much of an attention span as that of a goldfish. No insult to later tho.
Profit taking before the long weekend
Oral presentation usually is bullish IMO and gets better attendance as well. ONCS getting noticed for sure.
Unlikely as Botox KOL who was interviewed recently emphasized that happy patients are key and Docs r not flexible to offer different options, they will walk away IMO
The fact AGN is saying ‘it will have its place” for RT002, their comment implies they acknowledge tacitly RT002 is a differentiator.
They clearly getting prepared for meaningful competition (Revance) for the first time.
RVNC has sizable IP portfolio. 147 issued patents with 102 patent applications pending per Co slides.
Also
• Core US composition and methods patents expire in 2027 and 2029
– Potentially extendable for up to 5 years
• Acquired more than 70 patents/applications from BTRX
Their acquisition of BTRX could well turn out to be smartest move so far.
I still think ‘method of use’ means how it is used and not so much where as a product unless it is a product patent.
RVNC TransMTS no way comp to AGN’s method of use, IMHO but I am no patent attorney :)
Doesn’t ‘method of use’ category of patents mean exactly that ? How the toxin is administered for any particular IND ?
RVNC has clearly differentiated its method by combining peptide (TransMTS) companion technology with active drug (toxin).
To me, RVNC method is truly vastly improved 2nd gen Tx subject to P3 Sakura affirmation.
Point to note from that article is production of B. Toxin is not patent protected but the process is trade secret. So would be safe to say, RVNC doesn't have to be concerned on IP rights fight with AGN, notwithstanding a strong IP portfolio & proprietary delivery mechanism ? T.I.A.
Also didn’t Amgen partner with CytomX on IO products focusing on T-cell therapies ? Relatively big investment overall.
Today Cantor Fitzgerald Reaffirmed $50.0 Target Price per Share On Revance Therapeutics.
Good example ! I am looking fwd to listening for RVNC CEO Dan has to say come early Nov ER. Hoping he is as excited as he has been on bio conferences.
Just a thought. Wish RVNC management stops 10b5-1 sales until Sakura data is released. For all the compelling presentations, you would think they could look to sell at high price than now.
Can’t they wait for few more weeks?
FWIW, I add more today and already have considerable Jan 18 $30 calls.
Look fwd to 3q ER CC early Nov. CEO Dan is great to listen to.