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This week at ECOC 2023, Broadcom launched its 200G/lane optical PAM-4 DSP PHY device, the BCM85822, optimized for the 1.6T OSFP-XD transceiver module design. The BCM85822 is an 8:4 gearbox (GB) PHY that has 200G/lane serial optical interfaces. The device is compliant to current IEEE standards and interoperable with Broadcom’s 200G lasers, including electro-absorption modulated laser (EML) and continuous wave laser (CWL). With proven 200G/lane PHY and optics, Broadcom’s 1.6T optical module solution is ideally suited for mass deployment in hyperscale data center and cloud networks".
https://www.broadcom.com/blog/200g-lane-optical-solutions-drive-next-generation-networks
Based on what Broadcom has developed I suspect it is possible 800G transceivers may be supplanted mostly by 1.6T transceivers when they become ready based on the dramatic rise of data transmission demands over the next couple years. Data had been doubling I believe every 2-3 years and forecasts suggest it has started doubling every few months.
Ted, Your response, like many of them, is based on your interpretation of one word that Dr. Lebby mentions and you try to make it seem like the company is stumbling around. "Planning to implement" could mean they are working on implementation with a partner. It doesn't exclude that because working with a partner is the basis of their technology development. You infer it is essentially just a wish list. By the way, who is your "insider" who knows what is going on in the industry. An industry insider that doesn't attend conferences just doesn't impress. If that person attended any major conference he or she would see that Michael Lebby is front and center in presentations and organizing events. Your posts are a lot of smoke and distorted mirrors filled with innuendos..
Very good post Lewrock.
Here lies one of the reasons why we haven't heard of a signed agreement as yet, it being tied to a foundry's desire to remain silent until closer to announcing a firm product. Most, if not all important issues likely have been agreed upon as negotiations continue. Things can be slowed down by the foundry partner's Board of Directors if they believe waiting for what ever reason is best in the short term. Some agreements may hang in the air before becoming final as there is no great advantage in signing the first licensing agreement before another company does. A company may want to see what another company agrees to first as it allows an opportunity to at least match it or preferably gain some slight advantage with their agreement. Even a small difference in a licensing agreement can mean dollars or some other advantage that is wanted. Small amounts matter when volume manufacturing is involved.
A transceiver company to package the product adds further to the complexity of the numbers perhaps as each company wants the best deal. Things will have to happen fairly soon because no one wants a delay in a rollout.
Buvo you are correct in that anyone who knows details about the company and where they are with their technology development would see through the negativity. It does take some patience to gain an understanding of the technology and its significance in order to see that bashers don't offer useful information on the technology only distorted information that is proven incorrect by statements by management and posts from the more tech savvy posters here.
I think new investors just opening up the thread would be turned off by the back and forth intense arguing that goes on here. I am sure it is very confusing to them. That, I believe, is the purpose of what bashers here are trying accomplish.
And you can't put two and two together as you only parse words to create a narrative different from the company's. That is what a paid basher does.
Ruud, they are just bringing up the same old irrelevant stories from long ago to flood the board with negativity. On the surface it seems concerning to someone who is early in the process of looking at this company. It is meant to frighten novice investors. Any investor, new or seasoned, needs to use information from a stock message board as something to cross check as to the reliability and the timeliness given current information from the company and what role the company might play in the industry it is in going forward. Caution is needed when one reads posts based on interpreting negative views while picking apart the grammatical choices coming from management. Companies will often choose words that don't speak to absolute certainty giving bashers room to forecast failure. That is why understanding the totality of messaging from management is necessary. Context matters.
Sorry Reanimator, I am not following you.
Yes, it is true that it took many years for LWLG to perfect it's technology to make it competitive enough to challenge legacy companies in the transceiver space. They have made the necessary progress since Michael Lebby became CEO in 2017 locking down patent after patent to currently own supremacy in the area of photonic integration into chips. Their struggles before 2017 is a matter of public record, true, and that is what occurs when you are a public company for a long period of time. They made errors in communicating at times before 2017. It takes years to develop singularly unique technology that can change an industry. Both you and Ted keep up the narrative that taking so long proves they are incompetent and are faking it.
Looking at the leading enterprise AI software company Palantir focused on big data analytics. It was founded in 2003 by Peter Theil (the co-founder of Paypal) along with a few colleagues. Money was no object as Peter Theil had plenty but that did not speed the company's technology development as they finally became a public company in 2020. Until that time they were working in stealth mode and the public market didn't know exactly what they were doing. Apart from some very small government business they had none.They came out when the software was ready to be commercialized and the networking industry was wanting it.
Consider the most recent company we have talked about on the board. Beamr was founded in 2009 and became public in 2023. Sales first half of the year was under one million but an alliance with NVDA sent the stock climbing. It took a long time to develop their technology. Because they remained in stealth mode there weren't people like you to badmouth the company while they developed their technology laying down patents along the way to protect it.
Up until now it has been Lightwave's need to develop and get the technology to work with no hitches and to function better than other competing technology. Much of the details working with partners is in stealth mode as it is typically during a developmental period in the life of a company. You are here to bash the company for financial gain if the stock price stays low, ignoring how companies evolve to get to the point of generating sales. The increasing frequency of your posting along with Ted in this manner is an effort to influence public regard to the negative and affect price.
Go and have fun wrestling with your hippopotamus. You might as well as you both are full of sh*t.
What the heck are we doing Vein?
We are waiting for confirmation of the use of Lightwave's polymers in devices. I know it has been a long time waiting but you either trust management to get to the finish line or you don't. I am sure they want to move as quickly as they are able.
In regards to Broadcom's 200G single lane PAM 4 DSP SerDes, I cannot think of anyone that has talked about using 200G single lane PAM4 modulators other than LWLG, that would be used in a 800G transceiver. If someone else could, LWLG would win on specs.
https://www.broadcom.com/blog/200g-lane-optical-solutions-drive-next-generation-networks
Broadcom is heavily involved in facilitating next generation data center network upgrades. This article discusses their development of 200G per lane optical transmission link using their 200G DSP SerDes and laser technology. They discuss the 200G per lane technology getting ready for next generation 1.6T and 3.2T optical modules for data centers. The device is described as being produced along with their "ecosystem partners". So they don't name partners but I have to wonder if LWLG is one of them.
Yes Scope, it has to start somewhere. Based on what Dr. Lebby has said, success is a foregone conclusion the only thing is when do others outside of us understand that.
I will tell you what LWLG is missing, it is "Buzz" meaning excitement and enthusiasm spreading and spreading.
BMR got Buzz yesterday. The price bolted higher because of a partnership announcement with NVDA.
A breakout product announcement would create Buzz. This could happen soon.
An announcement of a big name partner would do it for the company but I suspect this would come after the product announcement.
The company has been making progress in development but there hasn't been a development that was dramatic enough that the wider technology and especially the overall investment universe could get excited about. Investors in the company see things as we look at what goes on with a microscope. The company needs some news that will be eye catching for tech investors and especially the wider investing community.
When Dr. Lebby's messages to us is seen and understood as quite possible by others, only then will we will have Buzz.
F2, One thing to keep in mind is that many, many folks thought that shorting small company low or nonrevenue companies, in an environment of rising interest rates would be lucrative. It has been lucrative doing so over the past couple years. Most financial experts were talking a high probability of a recession or a hard landing at leas,t as result of the prolonged high rates controlled by a hawkish Federal Reserve. Those outcomes would have led to more selling in small caps by retail and institutions as people sold to protect capital and provide an even lower price for shorts to begin an exit after the bottom dropped out.
Lately, to the surprise of many, the economy looks strong and no recession or even a hard landing seems possible. The likely escape scenario for the shorts never materialized in fact there is the possibility the Fed might be lowering rates soon (which is good for small caps.) The shorts that remain are swimming in their own greed and complacency and in stocks like LWLG without financial risk in the near term, they appear caught in their own trap. With any news of commercialization they will be trying to exit through a small door moving higher everyday and out reach for many of them.
Rkf while Luxtelligence struggles to get their TFLN modulator to run at 60 Ghz (putting aside its crummy stability for a moment) and while Chinese companies try to bring out a TFLN modulator (if they're lucky) in three years LWLG won't be standing still.
Remember what Dr. Lebby said in his January 4, 2024 article "Would Archimedes Say Eureka"
"In today’s optical networks, many data center operators are looking for technologies that are capable of at least 200 Gbit/s per lane (for 800 Gbit/s 4 lanes, and 1.6 Tbit/s 8 lanes). Polymer modulators easily achieve 70 GHz and have shown performance levels already at 150 GHz (which is roughly double today’s lane rate, which enables the potential of 1.6 Tbit/s with 4 lanes)."
LWLG will be coming out later this year with their 200GX4 PIC that will capture everyone's attention immediately.
So when Luxtelligence or the Chinese come out with a product that is stable enough, LWLG will be testing polymer modulators using new generation perkinamine polymers that will be likely at 150GHz or higher (and that is even before using PAM 4 to further boost the speed to double the rate). Adding to that unlike TFLN, Lightwave's polymers are proving more stable, smaller and thus more flexible for designs, less costly and can be additive in most foundries with their current equipment. This kind of functionality and adaptability in manufacturing PICs will continue to prove to be golden.
WOW, the curtain seems to be opening up tkg. Those are very bold statements by Dr. Lebby prior to the conference. I bet he has some news to back it up before the conference.
Thanks Jeunke. This is a good example of one hand washing the other or more explicitly, if we coordinate our efforts we will both benefit. Clearly NVDA is the largest benefactor with the emergence of AI and they grow faster as any technology that supports AI gets to the customer. Cisco is a huge enabler as network equipment can become a bottleneck if not upgraded and that is why Cisco will do whatever they can to improve speed and efficiency of network switching.. LWLG could be central to both of these companies as they try to stay ahead of their competitors by encouraging the emergence of optical switching.. At some point we will likely see LWLG helping to run Cisco's networking equipment.
Buyout in the near future?
Sounds a bit premature to longs and absolutely crazy by the shorts.
But, Remember this.
According to the web search results, WhatsApp had a revenue of $10.2 million in 2013, the year before Facebook announced its acquisition of the messaging app for $19 billion. However, WhatsApp also incurred a net loss of $138 million in the same year. WhatsApp’s main source of income was a $0.99 annual subscription fee, which was dropped in 2016.
The possibility of a take out of a ready to emerge technology that leapfrogs all others and has patents to protect that technology is not out of the question. I am not saying this going to happen for an eye popping valuation or that it would happen this year. That is the other side of a so much detail about exactly who is far along in development with the company that we don't know.
To the shorts. Do you continue to feel lucky to continue rolling the dice?
Ted, your problem in sorting out the value of the company's technology is that you appear to be wanting more clear endorsements from technology leaders about the desirability of Lightwave's technology and proof that it is scalable in high volume manufacturing. Your requirement for acknowledgement can only happen after a product is disclosed or contracts with big names attached. You significantly discount positive developments reported by the company and there being proof of functionality with world records with some modulators disclosed in the past. A person needs to use some imagination to see where this is going and to see the potential utility in a wide range of applications. Using foundries to manufacture was the AHA moment for me to see the vast potential and seeing how it is a capital light model which will lead to profitability quickly.. Watching the progression of development has cemented that for me.
You continue to denigrate Dr. Lebby and make accusations about disclosures that are too vague and likely purposely deceptive. As long as you have that view you will never see the company positively and anything you say about by the company and publically released information heard by others will have to be taken with caution due to your lack of balanced thinking.
You are stuck on a negative view and refuse to really acknowledge the direction this company is going. The fact that you totally discount the use of NDAs makes it impossible for you to be objective about the information you want to hear but not being talked about by the technology leaders which are either in the know under NDAs or not privy to all of the developments going on with other companies (they are likely competitors of course). No big name tech CEO is likely to loudly tout Lightwave's polymers until more information comes out. By that time the share price would have started its run as continuing evidence of progress in commercializing occurs.
Regarding the LWLG patents, they are only as good and unique as the technology itself but also how good the wording of the patent is as it tries to take on the broadest meaning effectively. Patents can be accepted by the PTO but often enough get challenged later by someone that doesn't want to pay up for a license or tries to haggle its way out of doing so .Then it boils down to how well it is written and EVERY WORD MATTERS, and it must avoid any ambiguity. Anticipating challenges based on prior art or ambiguity is a necessity. For anyone submitting patents, the wording is a learning experience from some trial and errors personally experienced or learned from others. The better you understand the technologies that may connect to your patent, the better you can word the patent to make the necessary connection for inclusion. It takes anticipating how other technologies might use your technology in the future. You have to know when to have add-on patents connecting to your original one that bolsters both as small changes get made with the technology.
Dr Lebby's value to the company is enhanced based on how he meets the descriptives I mentioned. I have often wondered why he was willing to take over the CEO role here in the first place when there were a lot of uncertainties. It was because he understood the potential and had vision other people didn't have. I suspect more patents are in process as they are finding and fine tuning polymers and incorporation into PICs. They have the advantage of being so far ahead of other companies using polymers and their integration, they are discovering things that other companies have no chance of discovering first. We are in a very good place as long as we are patient with the process.
In response Ted it comes down to whether a person trusts Dr. Lebby or not. You clearly don't and it appears you are out voted by the shareholder base and most of the photonics industry.
Lurker, where would the share price be if it wasn't for the senior citizens holding firm for years. Your holdings would be worth crap if the company was still operating. You would be having a two way conversation on the board with Ted because he would have bought in at $ 0.005. LWLG probably would have died years ago because they would have got a lot less when shares were sold to finance research because there were no older folks holding firm..
Unfortunately one problem usually leads to another, then another. Multiple fires together brings the ship down. Running out of money with no path to get more means the end. I wasn't here during the Marcelli CEO years but the length of time he kept the financial ship afloat saved the shareholder base. He was always a better financial guy than a visionary tech guy.
Exaggerate away to try and make your point. It makes you look foolish.
tkg, there is another AI search company perplexity. They offer a free version and one for $20 a month that offers some advancements. I downloaded the app a did a search on LWLG. You ask a question and it answers you in a nice dialogue as opposed to Google that offers you websites to click and read (many sites are focused on ads). No ads with perplexity. With perplexity you get the answer and the sources it draws from. It even has suggested questions to dive deeper into your search that you can click on. You can type your next question if the suggested questions don't interest you. It's answers did not speculate on their own like Open AI several months ago when I asked about potential partners. It is just another one to try if people are looking for an AI search vehicle.
spartex, investing in developmental stage companies has many risks and a majority fail. The ones that don't fail, grow and often beat the overall market. The potential landmines they face are many. Debt is the biggest destructive force along with out of control spending. Some CEOs operate with grand designs and try and grow too fast and outspend their resources. CEOs who make bad decisions in execution can cripple a company. Poor timing on the part of management to arrange for new funds by selling stock/other securities or seeking loans is an additive problem for financing. without financing, a company either gets bought out for very little or just disappears into bankruptcy. A small company may have trouble defending its patents by running out of money to do so or getting a ridiculous judgement favoring a bigger company or dying as appeals work their way through the system. If a company depends on government contracts there is no guarantee and those contracts can be delayed or cancelled. Early success with technology or drug development can meet a severe obstacle leading to failure. Someone comes along with something better and your company is screwed. There is the occasional company that sounds like it has something great but it is a sham. High interest rates hurt small companies, who have to seek funding. Even if they don't need immediate funding like LWLG, share prices will be depressed as investors avoid small companies in this environment. Shorting is common with small caps. It is done to the vulnerable companies and the ones being accumulated by big players.
LWLG has avoided just about all of the above landmines but has been hit with the present high interest rate environment and a very high short count. If they have what they say they have the shorting will eventually become an asset if the price rises because of solid advancements in starting commercializing. At that point, shorts are forced to cover and add to the buying. In come momentum players especially if interest rates are starting to come down and this accelerates a rising share price. Things can really roll with right news.
I think the company is learning that stating goals publically, whether technological ones or contractual ones, may not be the best thing to do. Goals can be taken as promises by some, and failing to say something about progress towards goals is often interpreted negatively even if progress is being made It is not wise to give details of progress towards goals that are not completely under your control. If you are working with other companies there are many things you cannot control. I for one like surprises especially when there is negativity giving shelter to short sellers. I want to see some surprises in the next few months that say things are moving forward from a financial perspective ie contracts or working 800G transceiver prototype.
Ted, when the CEO talks about goals they are not promises. How can he promise a contract with a foundry by the 2022 ASM. He can hope for such a contract but it depends on further work. You are right, it didn't happen and I wasn't surprised. A contract still needs for the other company to be ready to do so. There are way to many things that could come up along the way including updates to the PDK that was deemed commercially important, time for testing and retesting perhaps getting a transceiver company on board first because you can't sell PICs until the device to receive it is ready to accept it. Why are you getting so hot and bothered if you have no significant money invested in the company at risk? I agree that many people on this board have had a history of expecting too much too soon but I think that came with positive progress developing the technology over the last few years that I have been invested here. Dr. Lebby has not made "promises" he has talked about working towards endpoints and many people don't know how difficult and time consuming it is because of many steps to get there.
As for the bonuses Dr. Lebby and Marcelli received I thought it was well earned as they led the company to an uplist to the NASDAQ without a reverse split and without incurring debt while building the value of the company with advancing the polymers towards commercialization. In doing so, Dr. Lebby built a patent moat for polymer manufacture and patents to add polymers to semiconductor manufacturing using a foundry's PDK. That is hugely valuable setting up the company to operate as a capital light company participating in manufacturing PICs using a foundry's resources which for them is capital intensive. You can see patents being sold for millions of dollars all the time. Dr. Lebby has been a patent machine for the company. He has been worth every penny and more. Your outrage shows how ignorant you really are or it shows how deceitful you can be in light of what I just described yet you ignore it.
Customers dictate when new technology will be needed and manufacturers work on that timeline quite often. It is the best timing to really plan for a strong entry into a market when it is anticipated the sales will be there. That is because it is costly to ramp up and you don't want losses to add up if enough sales are not there and you don't want competition to try and catch up next year or the year after when the sales will be welcomed by customers.
You complain they don't tell us this and they don't tell us that but what company goes into all the details about their technology? No one. They tell us as much as they think they can without compromising NDAs or competitive advantage. Shareholders eventually hear about such things after testing and benefits are seen with such things as ALD. So, you don't like nice surprises. I can see that if you make bets on the company stock going down. Sometimes a new method comes into play to make a technology work better. That has happened here with ALD and other enhancements.
You play up the negative view bringing up irrelevant history from many years ago. The last several years this has been a very different company because they have a CEO who knows what has to be done. It is impossible to have a dialogue with someone whose agenda it is to denigrate a company day in and day relentlessly and to defame a very well respected CEO. Nobody does this unless they are paid to do so as a Basher especially with the insults you have received. If you have no financial incentive to do what you do, you are sicker than what I thought as you are doing so in a malicious way simply for attention.
Ted, I believe there are answers to your questions that are not as negative as you insinuate.
1. Do they do what they say they will do? In my opinion they have done a very good job on updates in the development of the technology. In 2021 they predicted getting the technology ready for initial introduction of modulators for data centers in 2024. That is the most important thing shareholders wanted to see. The CEO is on record saying high volume manufacturing with a partner or partners is working with good results. It is uncertain how far along they are working on final packaging with a transceiver company but that does not mean they are nowhere as far as that goes. They were working on ALD long before they told everyone they were doing so. Any further goals being met can come out anytime over the next few months.
2. Do they explain the reasons for falling short? Do you mean not getting something done or in the timeframe you expected.? Commercialization is starting and the details will come out at a time agreed upon by the company and partners. As far as the contract some expected by now that will come. We have to remember that a contract takes at least two sides to agree on everything. LWLG wants it signed as soon as possible. But wait, why would the partner want that? Perhaps the partner wants it closer to launching for competitive reasons. I suspect they will agree on some compromise as far as timing but that depends more on the partner than LWLG. Any past slowdowns in developing the technology is meaningless if they are ready in 2024 as predicted.
3. Do they take a lot of money for themselves? That suggestion is laughable when one considers what the management has been accomplishing developing the technology and lining up partners the last few years. One only has to look at the the salaries of CEOs in other companies to see that compensation here has not been out of line. Bonuses and options are handed out very, very often for good work done. I see what they have been given is modest under the circumstances.
4. Does anyone credible within the industry or otherwise validate their proximity to market and likelihood of success? When the company chooses to present the progress they have made in conferences, they receive accolades. Details of progress with partners remains under NDAs until partners are ready to disclose details. I believe the company understands and can see the advantage for the present time. Industry leaders know photonics need advancements and occasional say so. Until LWLG announces a product to compare to others, LWLG will not be talked about loudly as the details are under NDAs with partners and those not partnering aren't going to talk about something maybe happening until they know. Don't forget awards won but I know you are not impressed by that.
Yes AB, if you want and can introduce a new technology that has the potential to leapfrog legacy technology you don't give too much detail on updates as you are getting close to do so. Things do not happen fast in technology manufacturing. It takes many months to plan a release of a product when you are through most of the development.. If you are a legacy provider, you more likely will do so as you want to hold onto your sales base so giving advance notice is to your advantage. If you are new to the industry, especially with a really advanced product that has the possibility of taking the lion's share of business eventually, you may hold off announcing specifics until it is fairly close to a launch. Legacy manufacturers have less time to adjust to the presence of a new competitor. Customers and companies under NDA will know more than everyone else and can make necessary preparations for a launch and make it coordinated. You don't want to launch and misstep breaking into a new market.
I see you already responded to Ted's bringing up "Andy" again to spread doubt. I didn't see that when I posted my response. Thanks for your continuing to bring up cogent history to cross check facts.
Ted, you keep bringing up Andy from Arista as the source for understanding the current status of the reliability and stability of polymers in modulators. It is getting very stale. You continue to speak the narrative that he has said it has not been proven. That is spoken as a pronounced fact. I think it is rather odd that he would say that if he is not privy to the development of polymers. One technology company often doesn't know what another one is doing and has accomplished. Perhaps he said that because he had not heard as yet it has been proven I don't recall anyone saying he had any rebuttal when Dr. Lebby stood up at a conference several months ago to publically correct him that reliability and stability has been proven.
Add to that, you ignore what Dr. Lebby has stated since your alleged email from 'Andy" that testing has proven polymers in modulators are far exceeding industry standards for stability. You are not "fair and balanced" as you continue to discount Dr. Lebby's information in his updates and offer your own spin and conclusions to spin a false narrative.
The number of negative posts about the company has clearly gone up quite a bit over the past month. The talk about no new contract yet being a bad sign and proof that the company doesn't have the technology ready for agreements to be signed still comes up. In the December shareholder letter, Dr. Lebby couldn't have been more optimistic that deals will be signed in the near future. That was the most optimistic he has been about deals being agreed upon. It is still early in 2024 so the negative narrative has not been proven.
My opinion is that the negative drum beat on the board by people wanting to spread doubt is because we are closer to things taking off in a good way and they want to talk the price lower, if that is even possible. It might keep some retail buys down but the negative talk has no effect on the company's development.
Anyone casually reading the board should take whatever opinions are stated and treat it with a grain of salt. Look at updates from the company reporting progress and look for continuity in what has been said in the past One must keep in mind that anonymous posters on a stock message board are not going to be anywhere near as reliable as the CEO who goes on public record with statements about what is coming soon. This is especially true for a CEO with the reputation that Dr. Lebby has for being truthful as you can't twist words if you want patents approved (he has over 450). You have to be credible if you have been sought out for technology analysis and forecasting by Congress as well as the European Union and you have been used as an expert witness in court cases numerous times. Someone who goes through his life being precise in what he says doesn't suddenly become a liar as some on this board try to portray. The first defense a liar has is to accuse someone else of being one.
The pressure from governments as well as the pressure of public opinion is motivating the hyperscale data centers to lower power usage. Microsoft, Google, Amazon and META have made commitments to be carbon negative within the next 5 years or so. They have made significant progress but they are facing the mountain of data required to run AI such that they will need to step up their efforts in the coming years.
What are they doing now? Here are some of the ways they are addressing the problem:
Slowing down construction of needed data center buildouts. This can be due to their postponing building in certain areas as power companies are at their limits, or there is regulatory pressures to hold off due to limited power or limited water sources for cooling data centers. Slowing occurs as they start to fall behind in their progress to control emissions as data demand grows. This obviously is a stop gap or band-aid approach as data demand rises fast as does the need for more data centers.
Improved efficiencies and use of power has increased over time as data centers have grown in size and a greater amount of power uses goes towards computation. Over several decades the energy going to the same amount of computation has been reduced by half every 2-3 years. This is known as Koomey's law. Unfortunately, like Moore's law, that is hitting a wall as the computing demand is exploding and more power is being used to try and meet the needs. Data centers getting bigger is not the answer now especially with the likely future demand to run data centers closer to the customers which will require many, many smaller data centers running data at the edge of the network. It is like playing Wack-a-Mole, try this and the problem pops up elsewhere.
As data centers getting bigger, more transistors are packed into smaller areas. This is great for efficiency but this generates more heat. Cooling runs more power and uses more water for cooling which in many area is getting to be untenable due to water shortages.
The big tech data center owners have been buying renewable energy certificates which allows them to negate a certain amount of power usage and gets them a little closer to neutral. Buying these certificates from renewable energy companies gives those companies some money to help with their developing operations. That is very nice but the data center is still using the same amount of power so that doesn't help enough them to directly lower emssions.
They could use nuclear power which is an excellent way to lower emissions but there are very limited such sources available and good luck getting Congress to approve new nuclear plants.
The hyper-scalers certainly use solar and wind derived energy but those sources are limited and new ones take time and money to be built. They also can't be functional in many areas due to climate limitations.
Data centers can make a dent in their carbon use rating by investing in carbon dioxide removal either directly or through purchasing credits from a source that does. Microsoft is looking at this. There are just so many holes you can dig to permanently store CO2 as not every area meets the need have the necessary solid rock shelf to keep the CO2 contained. Another sounds good idea that just would paper over the problem.
Using Hydrogen as a power source would help but this is still in the early stages and won't help any time soon.
All this seems like a whole lot of desperation with the coming of the AI tsunami. While these efforts will help, they don't solve the problem of what is coming. Using low power modulators and transceivers would have the biggest impact. The hyper-scalers know this as power for cooling the centers is their biggest power usage cost. All the manufacturers are working to bring out lower power modulators that produce less heat. Power won't be reduced enough in the AI world unless they rely on using light to move data and less have reliance on electrons moving data. Silicon photonics will have the biggest efficiency as far as reducing power consumption for computing. It will require less hardware and send data faster with greater reliability. LWG has the answer to move into photonics in big way and the company continues to say it is starting this year. The sooner the better.
red, You are right about Intel and Tower not being combined. Regulators rejected the merger one month after the article. Tower has a history with silicon photonics and they will likely remain so. It is up in the air with Intel as they sold their in house silicon photonics business to Jabil. It would make more sense for them to build their contract business on being able to work with many PIC architectures and leave it to design houses to take on the development load. That strategy would keep the foundries running and they wouldn't take on the risk of their in house solution not being competitive enough. We will see how it unfolds for them because they are important.
I don't know if this article has been posted in the past so I am doing so as I found it interesting.
https://picmagazine.net/article/117150/Datacom_will_be_the_main_driver_for_Silicon_Photonics
Some takeaways from it and my comments in parentheses.
Many different options will be entering the data center transceiver market in the next couple years so LWLG transceivers will face competition. Dr. Lebby has said the introduction would start slow and later ramp up. (The reality is that real world effectiveness and stability must be proven and customers don't usually like to bet on just one company's products).
Companies are getting away from co-packaged optics as an upcoming solution due to complexity, cost and that pluggables are getting better.
InP plays an interesting role due to its flexibility as a material in silicon photonics (let's hear about a contract with Smart Photonics).
A lot of the new silicon photonics technology are coming from smaller companies so large foundries like Global Foundries and Tower Semiconductor (Intel) are preparing for a significant increase in the silicon photonic business by getting prepared to handle all the different PIC architectures as part of their contract business.(By being able to work with a wide array of design companies, silicon photonics can enter all the futuristic markets Dr. Lebby has talked about such as Lidar, medical sensing, VR, etc. with the help of contract foundries working on innovative designs incorporating Lightwave's polymers in the manufacture).
We are entering a a very dynamic market with competitive materials and designs that will compete for business. Everything we know suggests LWLG will be in the middle of it all.
As far as Dr. Lebby attending the conference, it is an opportunity to meet directly with one or more investors which could include mutual funds, trading houses or more importantly analysts. He can certainly talk about what they have done in a short period of time to get ready for commercializing. as well as review what makes the company's polymers special for advancing AI and other applications.
I get it. It certainly makes sense to anticipate all breaks in what leaves the company, information, communication or products.
X that description sounds like something out of Breaking Bad. At least I know what they may be doing is legal.
Nrdc it sure can take time to find a unique chemical with unusually good characteristics to further develop into a marketable product. I have been in the company only 2.5 years so for people like yourself and other long term shareholders it can tax your patience greatly. It is worse when patience starts to run out and objectivity is lost along the way. Development of a unique chemical like Lightwave's polymer takes time and a good deal of money. Without adequate funds development is slowed considerably. Changing the chemical structure to find the best balance of properties takes money, the right people, time and some luck. If competitive products are present it takes time to develop your product to be clearly better than theirs. Given Lightwave's resources it took a lot of time to get where they are now. I would say the technology advanced remarkedly over the past 4 years.
Looking at a company like Dupont, who had absolutely no problem with limitations on money, the right people or time, took significant time from discovery of Teflon to the point of being commercialized.
It started in 1938 as they were experimenting on gases related to refrigerants. When checking on a frozen compressed form of tetrafluoroethylene they found it spontaneously polymerized into polytetrafluoroethylene, a waxy type of plastic. They were lucky that it was already potential marketable product and it didn't need further chemical tweaking (unlike Lightwave's perkinamaine). They submitted a patent request that was granted in 1941, It was trademarked in 1945 while looking for applications for Teflon as well as potential customers. Manufacturing ready, it was released in 1946. It was a great success with new improved applications from what became a family of fluoropolymers over the next 3 decades. They were earning about a billion dollars a year for their polymers (what would that be in sales in todays dollars? Four or five times maybe?).
Lessons learned: One can experiment away but you need money, the right people, top notch lab space and equipment to have even a chance over time to develop something truly unique. You need more time if the chemical needs modification and changes even if it looks promising. It takes time for the patents needed to protect the product to come through. If your customers need help with finding how to integrate the product you have to help them figure that out. More time again.
We are now probably where Dupont was in 1945 when they trademarked Teflon and started selling a year later. They made tens of billions of dollars with a product that was tweaked by slightly changing the chemical structure to offer improvements for new and better applications over 3 decades. It was a scalable product. Dr. Lebby has told us perkinamine will be a scalable product. It has taken a lot of time but objectivity needs to maintained to see that you are sitting on something that is likely going to be a great investment over the next several years. Objectivity requires learning from the past while seeing what is likely to happen from here.
Yes, we know that LWLG has used several new techniques in manufacturing PICs successfully that were submitted for patent review. They use the techniques if they are working and foundry partners can see the results. It is with the understanding that LWLG has submitted a patent to cover this novel technique without prior art likely to dismiss it so the working assumption would be it would likely be approved. The bottom line is whether the technique is going to lower cost or improve functionality. The company will always have patents in process as they continue to innovate. The patent moat keeps growing. The company has enough patents to negotiate especially since they are the only source of the polymer.
The company remains a news driven stock as it remains without any clear revenue yet, no clear product to sell yet and a company that has carried doubt about success for many years that is being parroted by those that wish the company to fail. Because we follow the development closely we know it is just a matter of time for those negatives to start to disappear. A contract could be signed any day now or at least in the next couple months with one or more to follow close behind. With a few contracts, and especially if the company can showcase a completed and functional transceiver in the next few months we might be able to get some analyst coverage. Even without revenue that can happen but only with more evidence that sales will be starting in a foreseeable future. Contracts and a product that will come on line in a projected time frame would be enough to get a speculative buy recommendation from one of the analysts that informally keep track of the company. That would go a long way to help investors appreciate the possibilities the company has as an analyst explaining the potential would draw positive attention to the company. It would also lead the company to have a more typical quarterly up date with a question and answer period where analyst questions are addressed. Maybe less secrecy than we have now.
Even with a contract or two the share price will go up but will it stay up if there is a lull in news and not enough of a spike in the share price to lead a large amount of shorts to cover. Analyst involvement would help share stability to some degree drawing the rationale to invest.
One only has to look at what happened to AMD today as 3 analysts raised guidance based on that company's sales potential anticipated with selling chips for AI. AMD is well known but an analyst can help investors see the potential in an early stage company but commercialization needs to appear like it is coming more clearly for that to happen. We are not there yet but I think it is likely later in the year when Dr. Lebby finalizes some contracts and brings out the first product to showcase.