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dont overthink it...vegas is correct...somebody has taken several synthetic solutions to buying shares for one reason or maybe two or three for all we know..pros have accommodated their action [think fan duel]....all i know is...WE'RE IN PLAY!!!
jeal....the entity that took the other side of the options trade....is most likely a professional options dealer like Susquehanna.....in the end....the trade is all about the financing and risk management behind the trade... which a dealer can do do better than anyone else
rich...i forget who he was....but there was always a guy who said that the eventual buyer of idc would be cisco...if you think about it,,,it makes some sense....the "wireless network" at this point....really has become a network within the total network...with data connections being passed back and forth between fixed and mobile networks seamlessly...
after hours quote now at the strike 75...is there anybody that tendered....has heard anything?
rich....i think the trail leads back to qcom or csco...always has....good luck my fellow warriors!!!
leon....i know i make fun w/ the 5 o clock charlie MASH reference...but go back to the last time i referenced him...was just before the tender was announced...i do not pretend to be him or to know him....but when he has shown up for the last 15 years....SHIT HAS HAPPENED!!!!....
why we up 2.5 pts in after hrs?...5 o clock charlie again!!!!
glen....dont you love it when a guy sends his underling to do his dirty work....cause he's too chicken to do it himself....stupid is as stupid does!!!
ive seen a lot of funky stuff in my time....but this guy makes no sense to me....he's an analyst for a bulge bracket firm....it makes zero sense to even cover this firm....even if you liked the stock....there isnt even enough shares outstanding to justify your efforts on a monetary basis to the firm that you work for....to put your reputation on the line on the short side of what essentially is a deep value stock...is really really not too smart
i have to admit....i have no idea what is going to happen to the price during the tender period...i do know that if i was willing to tender a significant portion of my shares at even the max price....i would just tender them to the market right now
vegas....what did he have to say?
leon......tommorrow is the tender....im surprised there wasnt more volume.....im watching from the cheap seats...taking notes...cause this is a "one of a kind event"....as least as far as im concerned......good luck men...anybody still here after 25 years...has got what it takes!!!
i guess they found a price where shares are starting to change hands....seems like they will get their allotment within the price range...we're all on board one way or another...i once had so many shares i couldnt sleep at night .....now its the last thing on my mind....but its still more than a bite in my portfolio...im taking this baby with me!!!
Massive jump in short interest a/o 1/31.....AFTER THE FIRST TENDER WAS ANNOUNCED...went from 2.182 myn to 2.562 myn....wonder what the response will be to the increase in the price of the tender.....this is some game of chicken thats being played here
lime...first you get the legal victory....then you either are awarded damages...or the company signs a license...number 2 is the much preffered outcome
glen...i wouldnt try to over analyze the whole thing...the company believes for one reason or another that the stock is undervalued....defeasing the convert with stock is an interesting concept....they would then be able to take money out of their collar hedges by selling them off...they have the flexibility to do whatever they want with the capital structure because of their financial strength ....im just going to enjoy the ride to its logical conclusion ...which in my mind has always been some type of take-out
nah...it was a hit job designed to soften up the price for someone...it caused to company to get their game up a couple of notches...
WHERE IS OUR CHICKEN SCHIFF B OF A ANALYST W/ THE $50 PX TARGET?????
hi ho hi ho....its off to work we go....they are telegraphing that big things are happening and the stock is cheap....right now its a shorts nightmare....TRAPPED!!!
glen....stock loan is among the last places that traditional brokerage firms are "allowed" to make money in the stock market....the stock/loan market is fast and efficient....and has some of the sharpest operators in all of wall street....if your a hedge fund thats short idcc and intends to stay short through the tender....your on the phone lining up shares in anticipation of a call after the tender
glen...very simple...if you sell your shares for any reason....they get called back from the borrower...many institutions lend their whole portfolio of stocks out for a single price....and the borrowers pick and choose what they need..they will have to find other lenders....if the price of borrowing goes up...it hurts the shorts right in their pocketbook....technically with 2myn shares short and 29myn outstanding....there should be 31 myn of holdings among the various classes of shareholders
paullee....i dont think the tender was their first thought....why didnt they announce the tender at the same time the 400myn buyback was announced?.....i think the tender was announced after the shorts piled in after the jan 1 announcements....there's only 29myn outstanding....the plain fact is....they know the price should be higher....and they want to get it there.....before any talk of a buyout starts
fish...shorts can neither buy nor sell in the dutch auction...pretty effective move on the part of idc....the shorts can buy today...or they can sell today...if they sell...they're staring down the barrel of the tender....if they buy....well then .....isnt that the point of this whole exercise!!!
leon...i counted you first
maybe if things go real well in the next few months....we can all get together around the time of the annual meeting.....and do what we did best...eat drink and b$llsh$t
the news flow has been nothing short of awesome.....in a one month period....its gone from blah to BOOM.......hold on tight.....its gonna get jiggy in here!!!
glen...wow....thats a huge pct given the tender offer is in play....we've seen in the past....where the shorts seemingly were having their way with idc....only to get incinerated in a matter of weeks...my guess is...idc management saw that the shorts disregarded the early january news which was very good and piled on further..and henceforth and therefore.....THEY DECIDED TO ACT!!!....bravo
the way a dutch auction works is.... everyone submits the prices and the amounts they are willing to sell their shares at within the stated range ....the company will then purchase shares starting with the lowest price until they reach a price where they can purchase their allotted number of shares....all sellers will receive the highest price paid
good news on new coverage...any px target given?.....still waiting to hear from our Bank america analyst
observation....the peak in short interest occurred in late july at over 2.5myn shares....no big surprise....it coincided with the low in the stock price in the low forties.....looks like the sold into the hole to me!!!
dnd...i actually read it and understood it....like i said.....LOTS OF MOVING PARTS....im glad the guys w/ the HP-12's and the black scholes equation were there on both sides.....i would guess just about all of these guys were well informed and transactions costs were minimized as much as they could be ...because of common party transactions.......it looks like a complicated ...but efficient transaction....the nuts and bolts could have been done in fifteeen minutes on an hp-12....the legal language took months and months....GOOD JOB MEN!!!!
we need to look at the convertible deal due in 2024....the data posted is on the 2027 deal....the 2024 issue was 400 myn and idc has supposedly bought back 275myn as part of the 2027 issuance....there are a lot of moving parts here...including the collars that were sold that effectively raise the strike prices to the benefit of the existing shareholders....we need some good details on the conversion and collars for both deals to have a better discussion....i no longer have a bloomberg and have been unable to locate
GLEN....you may also recall that on january 6th....our old friend..5 O'CLOCK CHARLIE made an appearance....go back to my post from that day...i said it innocently as a gag to stir up some old memories.....profound indeed!!!
i do remember that......it seemed out of place at the time...in retrospect....not so much now...lol
dvm...ulterior motive?....the motive seems pretty clear to me....reduce sharecount....increase share price....and cause some pain for the shorts along the way
glen....thats a pretty high number of shorts with under 30myn shares outstanding....the shorts always tend to punch above their weight in suppressing positive movements in the stock price.....and pouncing on bad news to the downside.....UNTIL THEY DONT....AND THEY RUN SCREAMING FOR THE EXITS!!!
they're not getting my shares in their stated purchase range [60-69]!!!!
monterey...didnt realize they had repurchased nearly 3/4th of the 2% converts as part of the recent convert deal....they also unwound the hedges on those 275myn they repurchased......pretty sophisticated stuff
vegas...what are conversion features of the 2024"s....those might come into play