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Entdoc,
BCS_Paladin, if you read my earlier posts, you would know I have suggested two routes to fund Bavi development.
If Bavi is worth commercial development, it should be possible to find a BP partner to share the cost. If Peregrine can't find a partner in six to nine months, maybe Bavi is not worth further development. Harsh, but this is a business, not a science project.
Second, Avid is a profitable business, an increasingly profitable business. If it makes business sense to use Avid profits to fund Bavi development, use the Avid profits. The early phase Bavi-immunotherapy costs should be modest.
Peregrine management has enjoyed the luxury of easy funding via the ATM due to Bavi's trajectory to commercialization after a successful Sunrise Phase III. Didn't happen.
Now management needs to adjust to the new environment. I believe they have a fiduciary responsibility to their existing shareholders to operate the company on internal and partner resources. Selling shares under these conditions is not competent business operations. If they do, they deserve to spend their next ten years in litigation.
GLTA, Paul
revenue-monster, I don't believe Steve King et all are arrogant, except in the sense that they don't seem to care how much pain their shareholders have suffered and continue to suffer.
What annoys me is their apparent assumption that the stock market will continue to support Peregrine after the Sunrise failure. This is just wrongheaded. If they want to continue the Bavi adventure, they need to convince investors they take us seriously. They need to convince us by slashing the burn rate to zero. Otherwise, they better dust off their resumes.
GLTA, Paul
Agreed, cheynew. Peregrine management must show investors it can finance the company via internal sources - Avid, or a partnering deal with significant cash.
Otherwise anyone can see yet another reverse split in less than a year. While such a split would keep Peregrine on NASDAQ, it would lead to a continuing spiral down in the share price. This is not just my opinion. It is what happened after the last one for five reverse split.
Management either operates in a fiscally responsible manner, limits expenses to revenue, or risks continued investor flight. Now is the time to act.
If we see no proof of management's ability to achieve financial stability, I think we know where this is going.
GLTA, Pa
CP,
Hayward, in view of recent catastrophic events in PeregrineLand, I only wish some entity would make any kind of semi-reasonable offer for the company.
Unless Peregrine management acts quickly to restore its credibility with investors, we are fast approaching another reverse split that will take us down another 50%. I saw how well the last one for five split worked. I don't want to go there again.
GLTA, Paul
geocappy1,
geo,
Peregrine management. Stop needlessly diluting our ownership. If bavi-immunotherapy is as good as you think, find a partner to share the cost. If you can't find a partner in six months, forget about Bavi like you forgot about Cotara and the other projects that just didn't work.
There is no shame in becoming a profitable manufacturer of biologicals. There is however a possible return on shareholders investments.
Isn't it your fiduciary responsibility to make prudent use of our resources. If you don't, don't you deserve to spend your next ten years answering for it in court.
Not bitter about Bavi. It looked promising in the lab, but hasn't shown much promise in the clinic.
To repeat, if bavi-immunotherapy is worth risking shareholder funds, why wouldn't a BP partner be motivated to participate?
GLTA, Paul
If you want to blame someone for our miserable share price, Mother Nature is my prime suspect. If Mother Nature had cooperated, Sunrise would have shown Bavi-chemo as a great lung cancer fighter. Didn't happen.
I think most of us probably believe Peregrine management had reasons to expect Sunrise would be successful. Garnick picked the target, the reconstructed Phase II data looked good. So, I can't blame management for the failure.
What I can blame management for is failing to react quickly to the new reality. If they continue to fritter away their limited capital, they will drag down what's left of our investment.
Management must restore investor confidence as quickly as possible. If they can't attract a major partner-investor, they must prove they can operate on their own funds. I know this is easier said than done, but how else can they avoid a reverse split? I have no doubt a reverse split will take us down an additional 50%, or more. If this happens, I know who to blame.
GLTA, Paul
Time to face a few facts.
Bavi anti-viral went nowhere.
Bavi imaging went nowhere.
Bavi chemo went nowhere.
Looks like three strikes to me. Pardon the baseball reference. The smart money left with the Sunrise failure.
The only Peregrine success is Avid.
So, Peregrine needs to focus 95% of its energy on this money maker.
If they do, they may be able to get the share price back over a dollar. From that point they can make one last attempt at bavi-immunotherapy.
If they decide to go the reverse split path, we waited too long to sell.
GLTA, Paul
If any of you are able to communicate with our IR, please ask them how they plan to get our share price over a dollar before Peregrine is forced to do a reverse split again.
If they cannot answer this question in a simple way, we will know to take our 'hair cut' now. After a reverse split, this will seem like a really good exit point.
GLTA, Paul
Geo, unless Peregrine management regains investor confidence with the share price rising back above a dollar, how does Peregrine avoid a disastrous reverse split? IMO turning a profit by payroll cutting and boosting Avid profitability is the only path within management's power to restore shareholder confidence.
Maybe a great partnership deal would to the trick? I'd love it, but I don't see any reason to expect it in the next quarter or two, do you?
GLTA, Paul
Peregrine management, if you're listening. Cut the burn rate now. The easy money days are over, until you prove Bavi-immunotherapy works in humans. It is that simple.
If you can squeeze a profit from Avid operations, the share price may recover. Another reverse split could be The End for Peregrine. We don't want that, do we?
GLTA, Paul
Blaming management for the Bavi Sunrise failure is pointless. Blaming the control arm for over-performing is equally pointless. The Bavi-arm Sunrise patients simply did no better than the control arm.
Does the Sunrise failure mean Bavi has not value? No. However, it clearly means Bavi will not receive FDA approval any time soon. Peregrine management needs to swallow this bitter medicine, and they need to change company plans to reflect it.
If Peregrine management doesn't see the need to slash the budget and continue expanding Avid, then they are not as smart as I'd like to think they are.
I don't see how Peregrine can finance the Bavi-immunotherapy campaign to completion without partnering help. However, to get decent partnering terms I believe they need to obtain Phase I or II clinical trial success with Bavi and another immunotherapy. Until that time I hope Peregrine can push the burn rate toward zero.
GLTA, Paul
While I strongly feel Peregrine needs to scale back Bavi development, I do hope the AstraZeneca collaboration can go forward.
If Bavi can work well with AstraZeneca's drug(s) in the clinic, then we might see a partnering deal on terms acceptable to Peregrine and long term shareholders. I guess that might take a year. So, I don't see any worthwhile partnering for a while.
Until that time Peregrine must conserve cash by cutting non-Avid payroll IMO. This might help the share price crawl back above a dollar, and save us from a disastrous reverse split.
GLTA, Paul
Carboat, your brutally pessimistic view of Peregrine has turned out to be too accurate. Good on you.
However, your typically pessimistic view on Avid ignores the growing capacity, growing client list and backlog of confirmed orders.
Avid now has the capacity to generate $80 million gross annual income. Remember the confirmed backlog is already $59 million.
The Sunrise flop has forced Peregrine to cut back Bavi development for an uncertain period. When it re-starts, I expect the expenses will be modest at first.
So, reduced development expenses are very probable. Revenue increase is very probable.
Will Peregrine turn profitable in the next year? Maybe so. If it does, I'm sure you will praise Peregrine management and turn from a brutal critic to a fervent cheer leader.
GLTA, Paul
Hypi, as much as it pains me, I agree with you to the extent that Peregrine should put Avid development ahead of Bavi development. I wouldn't discontinue Bavi development. I would only fund it with internally generated resources, unless a partner would like to carry 50% of the cost.
Bavi may still prove to be valuable, but the likelihood is not known
GLTA, Paul
The Sunrise trial did not move Bavi to early FDA approval. Period.
Peregrine has gone from near term success to who knows what.
My concern, oft repeated, is how does Peregrine go forward without a reverse split.
If Peregrine doesn't have an answer, they don't have any chance of turning this thing around for years, if ever.
My unsolicited advice, act like a real business. Cut non-Avid salaries to the bone, boost Avid revenue. I see they are doing the latter, they need to do the former too.
No time or money to waste.
Paul
Another annoying reality. The anti-PS theoretical discussion is diverting but the only science that matters for a business like Peregrine Pharmaceuticals is what that science does for people in the clinics.
So far, Bavi has not done enough in the clinic to attract a partner or keep our share price above a dollar.
Peregrine needs to show us how they can get clinical results in less than a year that will get our share price back over a dollar preventing the necessity of a reverse split.
I did not harp on the reverse split line with the share price floating slightly above a dollar. However, at 40 cents the RS clock is definitely ticking.
Management needs to move swiftly in any way they can to prevent another disastrous RS. Slash expenses, boost Avid revenue, rent out the parking lot. I don't care how they do it, but they have to find a way to convince investors they know how to run a business without endless infusions of cash.
GLTA, Paul
All this talk of Peregrine's clinical way forward is pointless if Peregrine doesn't have a financial way forward.
Where is the money to support a multi-year development program for Bavi-immunotherapy going to come from?
How will PPHM shares get back above a dollar without a reverse split?
Until Peregrine answers these two questions in a credible way, we are in for more misery IMO.
Paul
Geo et all, Peregrine does not have the means to change the drug development system. In fact if they want to continue as a viable business they need to shore up their finances. And soon.
If they can't reduce the burn rate, they will have to run to the equity markets when the share price is near the all time low. A very bad idea.
A better idea. Get a partner willing to fund Bavi development. Or, reduce expenses and boost Avid revenue to the company level break even point.
You can't fight city hall. Especially when you are financially skating on thin ice.
Wake up, Peregrine management. No time dither over Sunrise results. Every day you spend more than you earn takes you another closer to bad, bad things.
GLTA, Paul
bidrite, I am afraid your memory is good. Peregrine management is not facing reality if they think equity markets are a viable option.
As long as the share price is below a dollar, there is a strong likelihood of a reverse split. Who in their right mind buys into a reverse split?
Peregrine management needs to look at other options. Partnering or a development program funded principally by Avid. Perhaps, the share price could move back above a dollar if management can sell us on their ability to fund the company without ruinous dilution.
Paul
eb0783, a development company without money doesn't develop anything.
Peregrine has been a development company for twenty plus years with no record of commercial success. And, it has just suffered an early halt to its only Phase III trial.
I still like to think Bavi-immunotherapy will be a significant success. However, given Peregrine's less than stellar track record, I don't see how Peregrine management can expect to raise money via ATM as it did before the Sunrise face plant.
If PPHM shares were only valued at a dollar with a promising Phase III trial nearing completion, how many shares will they have to sell now to fund several years of additional development? Too many. Way too many.
So, my simple conclusion: fund the company with Avid revenue.
GLTA, Paul
I am certainly not fighting Peregrine management. I do think Peregrine management might benefit from a shareholder's point of view regarding how likely retail investors are to buy their stock under current conditions.
By which I mean to say, don't even think about it. Find a partner willing to finance the bulk of Bavi-immunotherapy development. Or, slash the non-Avid payroll and boost Avid revenue as energetically as possible.
Sometimes outsiders see things the insiders can't bring themselves to realize.
GLTA, Paul
JamesGMS, believe me I am much poorer due to the Sunrise results. I don't characterize the results as a flop with any pleasure whatsoever.
However, I have to call it the way the IDMC calls it. In this second line NSCLC Phase III trial, Bavi did not help patients enough to merit continuing the trial.
So, at this point there is no evidence that Bavi will get FDA approval for anything. No approval, no sales. No sales, no value.
Bavi is not done yet, but it has not proved the anti-PS approach has any practical value. So neither does the IP.
In view of that Peregrine is in crisis mode. Not enough money to fully fund the company for the additional years now required to prove Bavi and the anti-PS platform have value.
I am very happy to point out that Avid may have the potential to carry Bavi and Peregrine until we get irrefutably good news from the clinic.
If Peregrine management has the sense to drastically reduce development expenses until an expanded Avid can carry the load, we may be OK. I don't like to think about the devastating dilution if they don't.
Paul
jamesgms, Peregrine's anti-PS IP is only worth something if drugs based on the concepts prove valuable in the clinic. Sadly, Bavi's flop in Sunrise has done nothing to support the IP value.
Does the IP have value? I hope so, but until Bavi or betabodies or something else proves it in the clinic, the IP has little value IMO.
GLTA, Paul
Agreed, geo. I bet Peregrine management was as shocked as the rest of us by the Sunrise halt.
Now is the time for them to show they understand how radically their situation has changed. Time is no longer their friend. No one is going to throw money at them anymore.
Avid is the only jewel in their crown. They need to put maximum effort turning it into a profit center big enough to carry the whole company for an extended period of time.
Bavi development has to be put on the back burner until they stabilize their finances. Otherwise, they will run out of cash, Then, they will be forced to dilute the hell out of anyone dumb enough to hold onto their PPHM shares. The exodus of existing shareholder will further depress the share price, lead to more dilution etc, etc, etc until the end of Peregrine.
I want to see Peregrine succeed. I hope to see signs soon Peregrine management takes the painful steps necessary to ensure long term viability.
GLTA, Paul
bobba-gadoosh, sadly the only news that might move the market in the next week is a downsizing of the staff and voluntary pay cuts by the executive staff.
I take no joy in this, but the failure of Sunrise means Bavi commercialization, if ever, is now several years away.
Management needs to prove they understand a.) they are running a business and b.) their current and future shareholders are far less likely to invest when the Bavi payoff has grown less likely and farther down the road.
Of course, a substantial partnership or amazing lab result would help. Don't know that the next weeks are likely to produce this kind of news.
GLTA, Paul
EndoTarget, the cure for manipulation is profits. Ending ATM use. Success in the clinic. Solid financial partnerships with BPs.
Peregrine management can solve the problem by sucking it up and running Peregrine like a business instead of a research institute supported by foundations and government grants.
GLTA, Paul
Current fiscal year Avid revenue to exceed $40 million. New Avid facility adds $40 million more capacity. Peregrine management sees the potential need for additional capacity in the near term.
OK, what does that mean. The current quarterly gross revenue run rate is $10 million. The potential with existing facilities is $20 million a quarter. They may soon see the need to expand further.
OK, what does that mean. To me it means Avid may soon be profitable enough to move Peregrine as a whole into the black.
OK, what does that mean. It means Peregrine management has a chance to development Bavi or whatever without dilution. It means Peregrine may someday pay dividends on common shares. It means Peregrine may survive the Sunrise failure.
GLTA, Paul
Revenue, I have to agree that Peregrine management has not shown us they have a way to return the share price to the $1 minimum in any other way.
There are two obvious ways other than a reverse split to get the SP back over a dollar. First, get a substantial partner deal. Second, ruthlessly control costs and boost Avid revenue to reach profitability. Either way could encourage investors to push PPHM back over $1.
Unfortunately, we have no evidence Peregrine has chosen either path or is actively working to achieve it.
Prove me wrong, Peregrine management. Please.
GLTA, Paul
Avid is today. Bavi is tomorrow, maybe. Hard as it is to change perspective, I think Peregrine management and we need to focus on expanding Avid.
Avid is profitable. Avid is growing rapidly. With the hold on development expenses, Avid profits may move Peregrine into the black. How do you think the share price would move? How much easier would it be to raise money for Bavi development?
If Peregrine management wants to continue fundig Bavi development without ruinous dilution and round after round of reverse splits, they need to get a generous partner(good luck with that) or generate enough Avid profits.
So, I don't care if Garnick is an employee or grand wizard of the KKK. I don't care why the control arms over perform. I care if Peregrine can expand Avid revenues to 100 million annually. Then, Peregrine can afford to pursue whatever drug development they like.
GLTA, Paul
Peregrine no longer a drug development company doing biologic manufacturing on the side. It looks like Peregrine is a biologics manufacturing company with a drug development activity on the side.
At least that is what the last CC sounded like. For my money, what's left of it, I would be more comfortable if Peregrine did focus on maximizing profits from Avid. If Bavi-immunotherapy combos are viable, all the better.
Management needs to understand that additional fund raising will be uber difficult and prohibitively dilutive. If they want more money for Bavi development, they are going to have it earn it themselves IMO.
Meanwhile Peregrine lets break the trend and earn more than we spend, like the rest of the business world.
GLTA, Paul
Realist1, use of 6 millon a quarterly gross when management has confirmed 40 million for the fiscal year is not realistic.
The 60 million dollar backlog of confirmed orders suggests the quarterly number is in the 10 to 15 million dollar range.
While I am crushed by the Sunrise failure, I can still do simple math. Once a CPA, always a CPA.
GLTA, we'll surely need it.
Paul
realist1, you assume revenue per quarter of 6 million. This is not realistic given the current year revenue of 40 million. Not to mention the backlog of confirmed orders approaching 60 million.
Gross revenue doesn't mean much but the gross profit on 15 million would be about 6 million, which is more than the g and a 4 million cited.
Not saying a profit is likely, but Peregrine is getting close to the break even point.
GLTA, Paul
Peregrine showing a profit? With development largely on hold and Avid revenue accelerating, could Peregrine turn profitable in the next quarter or two? Maybe both?
I don't track the numbers carefully enough to know. If Peregrine could start producing profits maybe the share price can crawl back above a dollar.
Are you listening Tustin? Break the trend, make more than you spend!
GLTA, Paul
Bavi is in a holding pattern with the exception of early stage investigator sponsored trials. The AstraZeneca trials are also on hold.
Avid is growing rapidly. The only bright spot. Bright enough to carry Peregrine to profitability? Not sure, but maybe.
Funding going forward? No evidence they understand how little appetite there is in the retail world to buy a piece of Peregrine.
Evidence of significant cost cutting? Not that I saw.
Overall, not what I hoped to get from the CC.
GLTA we'll need it.
Paul
The CC tomorrow will be critically important. Management will either make a strong case for a way forward or not.
If it degenerates into analysis of the great Sunrise disappointment, we will know they are clueless regarding the future.
The easy money via the at the market sales is not happening IMO.
I don't think retail will buy into another reverse split. It would trigger a mass exit of shareholders.
I really hope Peregrine management can find a way forward without runaway dilution. Otherwise, this party will be over by Christmas. Ho! Ho! Ho!
GLTA, Paul
I hope today's PR signals Peregrine's pivot toward Avid as the next phase in the company's development. While the expanded Avid is not likely to make enough profit to satisfy investors like most of us, one more level of expansion might be enough to support a better SP than we've seen for some time.
GLTA, Paul