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I added today as well. My original position was ~75k shares acquired over the past few years. I sold 10k shares back in April at $6.55 during the big pop, planning to buy them back lower when the price settled and a trading range became visible. I bought back 4k of them today at $4.55 (didn't do the full 10k yet due to cash being used elsewhere) as I am very comfortable with this investment from all the research I've done.
As for why the price is dropping so much I believe it's just a combination of general risk-off mode in the market today and probably some folks taking profit after the amazing YTD we've had so far. I'm not worried about it though as the large investment funds that have opened positions in Avita are not selling, indicating they see the same value as I do. Remember, Blackcrane Capital has accumulated a $40million position in this company at an average cost around $5.20 and they are not the only ones betting on much greener pastures in the years to come...
For anyone who is new to this thread or Avita and is looking to add to their research unbiased opinions about Recell from the doctors and patients actually using it in the field, I thought it would be helpful to compile a list of news articles about patients that have had the Recell procedure. If the moderators would like to make this post sticky it will be easier for newcomers to reference.
https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190801/ohio-state-universitys-wexner-center-using-spray-on-skin-for-burns-other-skin-issues
https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/new-device-uses-patients-own-skin-cells-to-heal-burns/95-7e8e3b83-20a4-4885-a32f-9233febcdda3
https://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Bridgeport-Hospital-burn-center-debuts-14188634.php
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/karinabland/2018/12/21/phoenix-doctor-burned-girl-taylor-swift-and-276-days-arizona-burn-center/2336344002/
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/12/19/burn-victim-oil-tank-recell-weld-county-north-colorado-medical-center/
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/health/new-procedure-tested-in-new-orleans-is-changing-lives-for-burn-victims/289-623057170
https://www.abc15.com/news/valley-woman-continues-recovery-from-rare-flesh-eating-bacteria-infection
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5169053/Spray-skin-new-pioneering-treatment-burns.html
https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/2014/09/11/spray-treatment-gives-new-hope-burn-patients/15494247/
I am curious to see how the price reacts at the $5.20 level, where it's been sitting this afternoon, as this marks the average cost for the ADR's largest shareholder, Blackcrane Capital.
The below article was posted this evening about a burn patient in Ohio who was treated with Recell. Both the patient and the treating doctor couldn't say enough positive things about Recell... this is the best kind of marketing that speaks for itself, directly from the doctors and patients.
https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190801/ohio-state-universitys-wexner-center-using-spray-on-skin-for-burns-other-skin-issues
A few of my favorite quotes:
“I’ve been floored with the results just because of its ability and how it reacted to my skin and how it adhered,” - Patient
“At one point, this will probably be expanded from burn patients to trauma patients to patients suffering from other types of diabetic wounds or other wounds,” - Dr. Valerio
“I can’t speak highly enough of it,” Ricart said. He added that the total recovery time for the Recell procedure was only about two weeks. “It’s completely healed,” he said.
I believe it should be posted tonight prior to ASX open if they follow suit with the last quarterly release.
I've seen this before as well with AVMXY, and agree it's strange... almost as if the market maker wants to take the price down and is willing to sell to us at lower prices to try to create the appearance of selling.
Found this article today that gives ReCell a nice shout-out. It's not significant or anything new, but I always like seeing ReCell being talked about and advocated for by the actual burn staff using it. That really adds a level of credibility and is a testament to its efficacy that can only come from the field.
https://www.greeleytribune.com/news/western-states-burn-center-picnic-honors-burn-survivors-highlights-new-treatment-options/
MMs are trying to walk her down after this morning's pop but not enough sellers came to the table... bet she goes back up to $6.50 plus by the close.
It's a huge market, and from these results it looks like RECELL could be a great treatment. The average ulcer shrunk in size by 83%, with half of the patients seeing complete closure. And all patients were treated only after the standard of care failed to close their wounds.
As suspected, BlackCrane has been buying more ADR and AVH shares. New filing out last night... on the 24th alone they bought 250k+ shares of AVMXY.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-change-in-substantial-holding.4833799/
Lots of buys today for 5k and 10k shares, makes me think there could be another fund accumulating the ADR...
Random question - does anyone know why Avita doesn't do a conference call with their quarterly financials? Most firms do this simultaneously when releasing quarterly results but I was surprised to notice that Avita doesn't.
Despite the low volume today, it does appear that there is potentially another large investor/hedge fund accumulating shares down here. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be Blackcrane dipping their toes in for some more...
I believe it was 28 centers that have purchased Recell as of the last update (the RBC investor presentation from May). 31 are in the middle of the VAC process, and a further 39 are in the "prospecting" stage. It will be interesting to see how quickly those in the VAC process start ordering, as once they do (I'm guessing all will be ordering by year's end) we are looking at more than a double of the number of client accounts from May's update.
I went through Blackcrane's Avita trades in their filings to calculate their average cost, which is ~$5.06 in AVMXY terms. This is right where we're trading this morning. I doubt we go much below this unless volume picks up, and if we do, it will be interesting to see if Blackcrane decides to average down.
I also believe the selling is from the shares issued to these early options holders who are exercising their options and likely taking some profits, which is supported by the relatively low volume accompanying the selloff. I am curious to see if Blackcrane Capital is done adding to their position or if we will see them dip their toes back in near the $5 level. I believe when I did the math their average purchase price in AVMXY equivalence was around $4.85... but then again, they already have a decent sized position relative to their AUM.
Some nice accumulation going on in Australian market tonight, up 8% at 0.43 AUD currently... could be ready to break upwards and out of the consolidation range we've been building the past several weeks.
I see now, those are just the ADR shares that BNY holds for AVMXY investors... I shouldn't have jumped to conclusions. It's misleading that it would show up as a "becoming substantial holder" announcement as clearly AVMXY has held a significant number of AVH shares for awhile.
Hot off the press... BNY Mellon discloses 25% stake in Avita. That is quite a vote of confidence!
https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvTDYD4A68zxGZoeFxke92GA%3D%3D
Quiet trading overnight in Australia today. I came across this article below posted today by Roger Montgomery investment managers in Australia (AUM around $1.3billion AUD). They wrote an article on Avita and disclosed they have a position. It's probably a smaller position as I don't believe these guys have been disclosed as a major holder, but nonetheless nice to see more funds coming out of the woodwork as Avita investors.
https://rogermontgomery.com/where-to-for-avita-medical/
That link tried to install spam on my PC.
It looks like some light accumulation is continuing today. Wouldn't be surprised if BlackCrane is taking advantage of the lower prices.
First post, but I've been following Avita since 2009 and am an active reader of this forum and Hotcopper.
I've been watching the orders go through today, and based on all the 5k and 1k lots that have been consistently hitting the ask I suspect either one of the existing large owners (i.e. BlackCrane) or perhaps even a new fund is still actively accumulating shares. This is the same pattern of activity we saw during the steady rise prior to the ABA conference when BlackCrane was building their position.