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Discussion with George Haywood about SNPX
Let's hope KM gets it and understands. Fingers crossed.
Do you pay for these docket alerts? And if so how much is it?
Agree and like Buffett says bad management can ruin a company. What was Thero doing since the Nevada trial......SMH
We closed today at $4.09.
I'm thankful I sold a lot in the $20s......I wish I would have sold it all now.
LBL why won't KM strike a partnership with Pfizer now for USA....it would be an immediate bump in scripts and would help to preserve what's left of the CVD patent before it runs its course in 2028/2029.
Could do something similar to what HLS did in Canada.
Always good to hear from you. There's been a lot of negativity as of late.
I just hope KM "realizes / understands" he can create value more with a BP sooner than later. The clock is already running in Europe.
Is a BP cool with Amarin handling those reimbursement/contract negotiations with each country?
LBL---are you still here?
It is important to understand the context and rules of civil procedure governing these cases. You cannot just take a quote like that and imply Judge Andrews wants to dismiss the case.
Hikma and HealthNet objected to the recommendation of the magistrate judge who was assigned to this case. The magistrate judge handles a lot of the pretrial orders to help as judges have a lot on their plate. Judicial economy and efficiency. The Magistrate Judge recommended that the case NOT be dismissed and because Hikma and HealthNet objected to this recommendation, Judge Andrews granted them a 10 minute oral hearing to make their case.
Facts matter.
It's not that but if you had a guy (accountant CEO) who had grandiose visions about valuation according to other poster accounts on this board you could get a BP who is not willing to pay a certain price and not wanting to deal with such CEO.
Curious as to what M&A premium are you envisioning? I haven't seen too many 400 and 500% premiums....or 300% for that matter.
But why not do something similar in the USA with Pfizer?
Pfizer must be salivating over our share price drop. We get cheaper by the week for them. Will be peanuts for them.....
What are the negative ones coming? Why not share with the board so we are informed?
LBL--what's your take on the earnings call?
so the end is near for shorts here?
China also cannot come fast enough. Hopefully it is also for the CVD indication.
at this point let's hope Karim is receptive.....
surely he must see what we see.
Covid treatment market--look at this article in Barron's pasted below on how much Merck anticipates bringing in from its covid-19 therapeutic. We are talking multi-billions a year. One JP Morgan analyst thinks the covid-19 therapeutic market is worth at least $5 bn a year.
If Vascepa does show to be effective, look out above.....
article below
Merck ‘s new Covid-19 antiviral therapy molnupiravir won’t just provide a short-term revenue boost to the big pharma firm, according to an emerging consensus among analysts in the wake of the company’s earnings call on Thursday.
It could lift revenue over the long term, helping wean Merck (ticker: MRK) off its reliance on its cancer therapy Keytruda. Sales of the megablockbuster, which loses patent protection late this decade, accounted for 34% of its third-quarter earnings.
Exuberance over molnupiravir has driven shares of Merck up 15.2% since the company announced data from a Phase 3 trial of the drug that was so positive that an independent data-monitoring committee recommended that recruitment into the trial be halted.
On Thursday, Merck provided numbers that underpin that exuberance. On an investor call, the company’s chief financial officer, Caroline Litchfield, said that the company expects between $5 billion and $7 billion in sales through the end of next year, including between $500 million and $1 billion this year.
That assumes that the Food and Drug Administration issues an emergency-use authorization for the drug this December. An advisory-committee meeting is scheduled for Nov. 30.
In a note out Thursday, Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal wrote that he expects $8.5 billion in molnupiravir sales through 2022, well above Merck’s estimate.
Other analysts said their expectations were in line with Merck’s call. J.P. Morgan’s Chris Schott wrote that while he expects $500 million in sales this year and $6 billion next year, that the estimate “could prove conservative.” And SVB Leerink analyst Daina Graybosch wrote that she expects $685 million this year and $4.9 billion next year.
Graybosch said that there was also an “upside scenario” where sales hit $10.3 billion if there is broad-scale stockpiling of the drug by governments.
Merck will split profits on the sales of molnupiravir with its partner, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics.
It is the discussion of molnupiravir as a long-term contributor to Merck’s revenue picture, however, that seems particularly new. In a note out Thursday, Mizuho analyst Mara Goldstein wrote that, assuming Covid-19 cases over the long term drop to a rate consistent with flu, she sees “molnupiravir as a solid contributor to revenue diversification.”
Bernstein’s Gal, in his note, said that he expects the Covid treatment market beyond 2022 to be $5 billion a year, and that he believes Merck will “end up with a solid share.” His financial model points to $2 billion in annual revenue from the drug for Merck.
That could be helpful for Merck, which faces the loss of patent protections on Keytruda in 2028. That deadline is driving Merck to find new revenue streams, and was behind the company’s big bet on the biotech Acceleron Pharma (XLRN) announced last month.
Evidence from other drugmakers suggests that the demand for Covid-19 therapeutics continues to blow past expectations. Gilead Sciences (GILD) reported $1.9 billion in sales of its Covid-19 antiviral Veklury for the third quarter late on Thursday night, three times the FactSet consensus estimate of $647 million.
Still, the FDA must still weigh in on molnupiravir before it hits the market. As Barron’s reported early this month, some scientists have warned that it could pose safety risks. Studies run by scientists at the University of North Carolina showed that the drug could cause mutations in animal cell cultures in a lab test designed to detect such mutations.
SVB Leerink’s Graybosch asked about those concerns on the investor call on Thursday.
“I would just emphasize, we are very confident in the safety profile of molnupiravir based on our preclinical and clinical data,” said Dr. Dean Li, president of Merck Research Laboratories, in response. Li noted that the company had run tests in rodents, and none had shown that the drug induces mutations.
“In these studies, we’re administering molnupiravir for longer and higher doses than those employed in the human clinical trial,” Li said. “And the totality of the data from these studies indicate that molnupiravir is not mutagenic or genotoxic in these in vivo mammalian systems. Now we have shared these results throughout with the regulatory agencies worldwide, and we’ll continue to provide additional data as this process continues.”
How Merck appears to be pricing molnupiravir has also raised questions among some critics. Merck announced a deal with the U.S. government in June by which it will sell 1.7 million courses of molnupiravir for about $700 each. In his Thursday note, Bernstein’s Gal estimated that Merck is charging $300 per course outside of the U.S.
Merck announced earlier this week that it had licensed molnupiravir to a United Nations-backed group called the Medicines Patent Pool, which in turn licenses the drug to manufacturers in low and middle income countries. Merck will receive no royalties through the agreement.
Merck shares rose 6.1% on Thursday, and were down 0.4% in premarket trading on Friday. The stock is up 11% this year.
i recall he was hanging on to a bit pre du ruling. he was still actively posting up to and post the trial.
he also said Vascepa would sell itself, which we all know not to be the case.
It's the denial of the original en banc request. The original panel decided to rehear the case this past February and issued their new ruling in August. Teva has now asked to have this decision reviewed. Teva is asking the court again to review this.
Will en banc be granted? I don't know. They are generally very rare because you need 7 judges to say yes.
The American Axle case was another contentious case that did not get enough votes for en banc.
If the case is taken en banc, it will signal to the Supreme Court to look at this. Judge Newman is favored at the Supreme Court because they know she knows patent law.
Courts do not like en bancs because they are very contentious. Moreover, Teva did get a rehearing and Judge Newman rewrote the opinion indicating Hatch Waxmann is still the law at hand and this GSK v. Teva case does not violate Hatch Waxman.
Remember Hatch Waxman never made it permissible for generics to infringe on a patent. But what was taking place in the real world was completely different from the halls of the judiciary. If Hatch Waxman allows a generic to infringe on a patent, once the point of having patents? Judge Newman recognized this and penned her opinion accordingly. I love that she indicated Hatch Waxman is still the law of the land and this does not violate it.
American Axle case: https://cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/18-1763.ORDER.7-31-2020_1628780.pdf
Let's see how our stock price closes today. They hammered it this whole week which coincided with these class action lawsuits. The lawsuits are still out there so in theory we should still be down if that was the true reason.
Or are they afraid to be short over the weekend....
Will be interesting to see how we close.
I wonder if Pfizer knows about the Cariolink 9 study?
Got it. Thanks for weighing in!
Larrybirdlegend what's your take on these class actions?
I recall some posters hinting that it could be for the CVD indication too or maybe that was TerraPharma on twitter
but why now and why this week? all before next week's earnings....
taking advantage of the quiet period before earnings?.......
almost 8 mm shares traded today
LBL---any insight into what is going on with the share price takedown?
Something negative leak?
Secondary?
should a partnership with a BP for the USA take another 3 months to hammer out? another 6 months? or should we wait till 2028 or 2029 then hammer out the USA partnership?
scripts are stagnant.....
We are staring at stagnant script growth so never understood what waiting gets us.....
Does AMRN senior mgmt truly think things will magically turn around. At this point what's remaining of USA (CVD) and Europe are on the clock.....
Hopefully KM is not thinking let me get the absolute best deal but rather let's get a good deal and start to grow scripts and make money...
Time is of the essence.
Great post. Let's see how much longer they delay? November is around the corner....
Come March 2022 we would be two years post Du Debacle and one year of exclusivity gone in Europe.
And yet despite these inaccuracies the company remains a punching bag.
So the beatings continue.....
Compare this to how Elon Musk handled the shorts in Tesla. He made a mockery of them.
perhaps a hedge fund is behind it in terms of trying to create panic....and depress the stock....
they knew there would be no news this week with earnings next week so perfect time to do it.
Great question. Very strange timing.
Class action lawsuits…while not happy to see them hopefully they wake our Board of Directors up.
The share price destruction here has been nothing to write home about. Even the drop post JT’s retirement announcement. Botched.
JT left his stench on the company. Come March 30th we will be two years post the Delaware Debacle and one year of Europe exclusivity gone. Hello Board of Directors….Amarin is not a non profit. Shareholders own the company.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amarin-class-action-notice-schall-130000459.html
One month at most. Lol.
Hopefully Karim understands this. Does not appear JT did.
that's Wall Street for you. a ruthless place.
The problem is our $5 share price. I haven't seen a buyout premium of 300 to 400%.
Management needs to get the stock price up.....how do you see that happening? Maybe they leak interest....
otherwise we could get a low-ball offer.
I hope you are right re: year end. You still think we could be in play shortly?
Hopefully this revs up biotech M&A.
Look at the volume the last 10 minutes of the day. They pounded the stock all day but don't want to be short over the weekend. LOL
And when you have a company that never puts out a surprise PR to catch the shorts / naysayers / hit pieces off guard.....it's the ideal company to mess with.